Monday Quickie - Where are we with Keibert?

One of the great questions for the Nats going into the season was "what the hell are they going to do at catcher?" Keibert Ruiz had been terrible for several years and the pipeline for catcher was as weak as any position for the Nats, with newly acquired Harry Ford being the next hope that was unlikely to pay off. 

But something funny happened this year. Keibert got good (well at the plate) and the pipeline started filling up. 

On Keibert, arguably this version looks a LOT like what you'd have expected Keibert to be like back after 2021.  A low-power contact hitter who's worth was tied up in his average but who could keep that number up over .280.  While May flirted with something more, that was more likely just all his power concentrated into a single hot month, and this is more who he is. A guy at the mercy of BABIP but when you put that many balls in play, it still works out. 

Of course Ruiz has never been a great reciever and while his framing looks better now (honestly I bet more a function of the auto-strike zone taking some off of this skill for others) he's still at best just hanging on. But if a guy can hit .280 and hang on... well that's ok. 

The organizational depth is more interesting and Ruiz not crashing out this year means the Nats have a little time to check it out. Surprisingly enough (or not really if you know where they really sat as prospects), it's not Harry Ford (rapidly looking like a AAAA player - though still just 23 and a half) or Caleb Lomavita (struggling to hit in AA still under 24 I guess though it's more impressive for a guy getting MLB at bats like Ford) that we are looking at. 

Maxwell Romero Jr was a going nowhere C prospect drafted in the 9th round in 2022.  After getting the "you are too old for here" promotions up, he hit terribly in 2025 and it was probably expected 2026 would be his last year in the organization. But what he could always do was hit for power and this year he got his average up enough (over .240) to get the "ok you are old and we are interested" push to AAA where he's been hammering the ball. Granted it's been just a month of games but it's enough to make you take notice. 

Kevin Bazzell was a third round draft pick back in 2024 and last year wasn't kind to him. But he wasn't completely outmatched and things must move on for older college draftees, so he got the same "move up because" push as Romero. Starting in High A this year Bazzell did ok, which earned him a push to AA where in a few games he's been absolutely on fire. 

Now before you get excited these are very likely to be small sample size situations. Both these guys are older given their level or Lomavita than Ford (Romero over 25 and Bazzell basically Ford's age but just getting to AA).  Neither of these guys are top notch catcher either. In fact the Nats are basically full of guys that aren't really catchers, but are there because they can hack it.  So no there isn't a pipeline of depth here ready to be dealt for help in other positions. 

But given Ruiz is signed reasonably for a few more years, it seems like where we are is he gets to hold down the spot while all this shakes out. Likely shakes out to nothing, true, but the grimness that existed before getting Ford is now replaced with a sense of hope. Something could work out here, there's enough quantity.

Monday Quickie - Dead Cat bounce is done

The Nats are done for the season.  

In reality they were done for the season at the start of the season and the way the ownership approached the building of the team should have made that clear. But as we didn't expect anything from the season we didn't know they were committed to NOT trying until that actually became an issue. 

The Nats right now are were the management expected them to be.  A team stripped of the usable veteran parts they picked up with one "star" bat in the lineup, though if you asked them that star would have been Wood with Abrams traded and not Abrams with Wood injured.  Still I think it's a good sign they didn't trade Abrams and recognized the team, at least offensively, is closer to competitive than not. 

 What's next is 1) taking care of James Wood and 2) doing their best to answer questions about the team for next year. Who's got a slot taken care of and who will be fighting for a role next year.  You can see what they want offensively - Ruiz at C, Abrams at 2B, Nunez at SS, House at 3B,  Wood + 2 of Young, Lile and Crews in the OF, a couple of bats from Chaparro, Ortiz, etc. make themselves favorites for 1B and DH. Pitching is more of a mish-mash : Will anyone joine Cavalli in the rotation next year? How many of these RP look like guys you want to say "ok that spot is covered" for? 

But functionally on the field answering these questions mean more losses than wins and the slow air leak out of the fun balloon we've been playing keepy-uppy with all season. The good times for 2026 are over. 

Foster Griffin - we barely knew ya

 The Nats only make one more deal but as expected it's for Foster Griffin.  To Cleveland for four guys pitchers Will Dion, Kendeglys Virguez, and Josh Hartle, and outfielder Nick Mitchell

If you thought the Garcia haul was about quantity this one REALLY is about quantity.  

But to be fair that is what Griffin should bring back - next to nothing.  He's been good but his ERA is under what the fancy stats say it should be.  He's a back end starter for 2 months. This is what you get for that. 

Will Dion is a failed starter propsect attempting to become a reliever but at an age (will be 27 at the start of next season) they can't really expect it to stick.  He's got pretty good walk and K rates but tends to get rattled once someone reaches base. He's a guy to throw in the bullpen now. 

Virguez is the typical "live arm" can be unhittable if he can hit the strikezone, which is usually can't. But he's at a decent age (just turned 22) for trying to fix him. 

Josh Hartle is a mediocre prospect starter. He's doing ok in AA but doesn't strikeout enough and walks too many giving him real "this is his ceiling" feelings. 

Nick Mitchell is org depth. 

The Nats are hoarding pitching depth and you can understand why.  They have Susana and Sykora and basically nothing worth talking about.  If both those guys don't work out (honestly again with prospects the most likely situation) then they'd be doing repeats of what they did this year if they don't want to spend money for the best FA arms.  They need depth of guys that can be slotted in that maybe they aren't as good but aren't a huge step back. Better guys in the rotation, better guys to back them up.   This isn't about hitting 8 of 8 or even 4 of 8.  It's about hitting 2 of 8. Maybe 3 of 8 if we're talking about getting some decent use in the next 3-4 years. Will they?  No one knows!  Not even the best prospect guys.  That's why you get depth. 

Garcia traded for quantity

The Nats get Yovanny Cruz, Jake Bird, Ben Grable and Jack Cebert.  

Cebert is the one the Nats are probably most hopeful for - a starter that probably ends the season Top 10 in the Yankees prospect lists.  One of their college arms that they turn into decent prospects. He ruled High A then struggled in AA but might be turning that around too.  The main issue with Cebert is that he turns 25 next year so when a true stud should be rounding into major league form, he'll likely be proving he deserves a call-up from AAA. That is where he sits though - maybe he's a major leaguer maybe a AAAA type.  But never hurts to have more of those as options. 

Grable is kind of a one-trick pony in that he has a fun fastball that is tough to hit... for minor leaguers.  It was DOMINANT in high A but more hittable in AA. It's gonna be one of those things that if it it holds that major leaguers find it hard to hit he'll be a great relief arm.  If not he's probably nothing. But hey you want someone with a chance! 

Cruz is your "dynamic stuff can he ever control it?" type. At about to be 27 it's far more likely that the answer is no BUT if it is yes he could be dominant. 

Jake Bird is 30yo bullpen filler that is probably a safe bet to be out of baseball in under 5 years, maybe under 3. 

The MOST likely single scenario - Jake Irvin and a couple of live bullpen arms that give you hope and maybe a good year but ultimately disappoint, but we're talking like 20% here for MOST likely.  There are a lot of different possibilities.  If the Nats get Grable or Cruz to become a lights out reliever then it's worth it. If they get Cebert to be a good enough rotation guy, it's worth it. And the chances are probably better that one of them has a career at least sort of like this.