Recent drafts revisted

In our quest to look forward we often can only remember the latest things. For the Nats that means looking to who they could draft in 2026 and checking up on last years #1 pick Eli Willitis.  But the development of the next great Nats team, if soon will rely on the last few drafts. These are the ones I glossed over in my "why did things go wrong" as I was talking about the bust starting in 2020. But it's when the team took a renewed effort into getting these things right and it's worth looking back to see what the Nats did pick up and where they are standing now, starting in 2021. 

 

2021 

(1-11) Brady House  (2-47) Daylen Lile (3-83) Brandon Boissiere

Rest : (7-203) Jacob Young  (10-293) Darren Baker (12-353) Andrew Alvarez 

The 2021 was the first year they went from the old 40 rounds to the current 20 and it gave the Nats their what looks to be their best draft since 2016. House and Lile should both start for the Nats in 2026 and Young could as well, and if not fits in at the 4th OF.  Alvarez is a now older AAA SP who in the vein of Irvin/Parker came up and did well but no one expects much of. Baker is a slap-hitting org guy who got his cup of coffee presumably as a favor to his dad.  

Saenz is a name I recall that you could see as just an arm that comes up

 

2022 

(1-5) Elijah Green (2-45) Jake Bennett (3-84) Trey Lipscomb

Rest : Brad Lord (18-531) 

And they followed it up with a draft that seemed to break the team. Green while still young (22 this year) can't make enough contact and is doing damningly poor for a Top 5 pick. You can't miss so badly with this pick. Bennett had to quickly get Tommy John and was just traded to Boston for a livelier arm. Bennett's not a bad bet but entering the "prove it" age with 45 innings in AA whereas Perales has a couple more years of building. Swap made sense for both teams. Lipscomb was the best they had ready for a while but he's not a major league player. Lord is probably going to be the best of the bunch a true diamond in the rough pitcher that Rizzo's team developed? Anything can happen!

Riley Cornelio, who I mentioned last post was drafted in the 7th round here and could have a place with the Nats 

 

2023 

(1-2) Dylan Crews (2-40) Yohandy Morales (3-71) Travis Sykora 

Rest : Uhhhh

Crews' biggest issue is not his performance (mildly disappointing production but not out of line and with promising fancy stats) but the performance of those drafted around him. Skenes is a superstar, Langford has been a solid all around player for 2 years, Jacob Wilson an All-Star. Rhett Lowder looks like an ace if he can be healthy. Nolan Schanuel has been a useful starter for two years. Kyle Teel looks like a long term answer at catcher. And Matt Shaw should be getting another go round as a starter but Alex Bregman grabbed his spot.  That's 7 out of the Top 15 picks having better career starts than Crews and a few other were HS guys who are ready to make their mark. So did the Nats get it right or wrong here? He's no Elijah Green but in context it could be a huge miss. We're waiting. Yohandy is a solid bat that's going to get a chance at some point and the same chance will be afforded Sykora is a well-liked arm. 

 But the draft is very "Rizzo special"  with more guys who should be out of baseball than even be organizational depth. 

 

2024 

(1-10) Seaver King (1-39) Caleb Lomavita (2-44) Luke Dickerson (3-79) Kevin Bazzell

 Rest : TETT (Too early too tell)

Seaver King is a work in progress with everyone loving his make-up and skills and waiting on the production to follow. Think about Dickerson the same way but less production and more projection as he's just turning 20. Lomavita and Bazzell are both C.  Bazzell isn't hitting so far, and Lomavita is but it's hard to see him make it as a catcher and he might not hit well enough otherwise. These are the guys that make up a lot of the Nats personal Top 20 and as you can read it's not because they forced their way in.  The other drafts have just left spots open for guys with more question marks that can't be answered with "No"s. Of course I won't deny were getting REAL early in guys careers here - first full minor league season. 

 

If I were to take an overview the 2020 COVID draft and 2021 drafts seemed to work out for the Nats in whatever approach they took but the 2022-2023 were back to the big swings that left the minors devoid of depth in search of stars. Great if you hit, troubling if you don't. 2024 seems like it might be the same but I won't land judgment there just yet. 

This is why the Top 20 otherwise is mostly trade returns. The recent years were pretty weak. If you are looking for a miracle, a Nats team competing in 2028, look to the names of the guys you have heard before - the major leaguers, guys like Susana, and names here like Sykora and hope they nearly all work out. Hope for a C to quickly emerge from the deep pool of questions - Ford, Lomavita, Bazzell and yes, Millas has a half-year to do it. Because that's the only way it'll happen. There isn't a next wave coming after this. There's a break coming before we get to Willitis and say 2029 and beyond and if that all doesn't happen that next group post-break will include guys that this group brings back in trade. 

Monday Quickie - Hello? Is anyone out there?

Not you guys but Nats news. Anyone care? 

Zuckerman is doing his thing over at Substack asking a good question - who's going to be the closer.  I'd bet on Clayton Beeter, who I like in part because it's unlikely the Dodgers (a great minor league operation) and Yankees (a minor league that readily develops decent relievers) are both wrong about the guy having solid skills. Cole Henry could also be the choice as a long time org favorite. But given that closer doesn't matter as much as using the best guys in the best spot maybe you let a Drew Smith have it and use Beeter and Henry when you need them? This is more a contract question for these guys than what's best for the team because whoever gets the role can get more money.  

If that race doesn't get you going, the "excitement" in Spring turns to the kids. Watching Eli Willitis a legit prospect get his first major league camp swings in is a real thing to be interested in, but it'll be at least late 2027 before we see him, one would think.  So we're relying on Riley Cornelio (think budget Brad Lord) to be the breakout Spring player? Yikes.   

This is one spring where I'd actually be happy about getting excited about a random guy doing real well.  Why not? 

Drew Smith and lingering questions

 The Nats brought in Drew Smith.  He just went through his second Tommy John but says he's fully recovered.  He's been a live-arm guy who has always outperformed his fancy stats.  If one was to theorize it could be because his fastball is fantastic and when he needs to dial it up to get an out he can do it. But his other pitches aren't good and when all you can do to succeed is dial up the fastball well, that's how you get a guy with two Tommy Johns and under 200 IP over 6 seasons of pitching. 

As a minor league deal it's fine and I guess the Nats have reached the time when they feel thy can pick up bargains. Will they make many more moves? I doubt it but expect a few more here and there.  Maybe a veteran catcher.  Maybe a DH.  Another reliever.  Not anyone that would excite you but gap fillers. 

The signings aren't going to be the focus of the Spring though.  Instead we should be focused on these questions

Will CJ Abrams be here on Opening Day?  The Nats are in rebuild mode with an aim to have the #1 minor league organization in baseball.  It seems pretty clear that trading Abrams, with limited control left, would be a way of getting there.

What is the plan at Catcher?  Ruiz has the money but he's been literally unplayable in recent years.  Do they start with Millas?  Ford? Or is there a vet out there they will throw back behind the plate at first?

What's the DH/OF situation?  Are the Nats having a set OF?  If so who is in it?  Do they go Lile/Wood and forgo D or do they give Young another shot.  If the OF is not set then what's the rotation plan for DH?

What's up with the hurt arms? Josiah Gray should be pitching in the Spring and we'll get a sense there.  Will we hear anything about Herz or Williams, who have been moved to the 60-Day DL? And how does this factor in the projection for the rotation?

Ok Spring is here.  Well Spring is there in Florida.  Let's get started. 

Monday Quickie - Miles to go before we sleep

 Last week the Nats signed Miles Mikolas as their first "FA to sign to trade later" of the off-season and honestly I like the deal. 

 For those that don't remember Miles as one of the quality St Louis starters undone by the Nats staff obliterating his offense in the 2019 NLCS, a little background. He was initially a failed starter for the Padres that went over to Japan and had some success.  The Cardinals brought him back to the states in 2018 and he performed great, then ok in 2019, then got hurt in 2020, injuring his flexor tendon.  He'd get back to full-time work in 2022 and was solid but hasn't been able to replicate that since, likely in large part because at that time he was already 33 years old.  The last 3 years he has simply been an innings eater, reliably going out every 5th day to give you 5-6 innings. 

 He isn't that good anymore but the Nats don't need good. 70 pitchers threw 150 innings last year. The Nats had the two with the worst ERAs with Jake Irvin (5.70) and Mitchell Parker (5.68) and they were that bad. Miles was 11th worst but with a slightly lucky 4.84 ERA, unless age gets his this year, he'll likely put up the same amount of innings as these two with a half-run better ERA.  Still bad, but acceptably so, not "we have to find a fading starter at the end of his career to replace this" bad like Irvin and Parker. 

 Since 2023 Miles has gotten by with impeccable control. If you want to worry that did slip last year to his second worst total since 2018.  But at 2.1 BB/9 it's still very good.  The problem is it has to be because both his ability to keep the ball in the park and his already weak K rate are slipping too. This is age catching up with him and at some point his ability to not give guys free passes won't be able to overcome the fact guys will get hits then take him deep.  Let's hope it's not in 2026. 

I do wonder why it's a 1-yr deal as usually a cheap-o two year deal is the way to go with guys you expect to trade simply because if they are doing well enough that someone else wants them, that cheap 2nd year is the real enticement. But who knows the vagaries of the current market. The Nats needed an innings eater and I mentioned Miles as a possible pick-up (Chris Paddack the other choice went back to Miami) so I guess I'm fine with this. It was needed. There's nothing stupid about it. Maybe he has a few months of good pitching and gets the Nats a worthwhile lottery ticket. 

Monday Quickie - "Pitchers" and "Catchers" report

Baseball will start this week but will it? The Nats are a team in limbo in every way. They have no home station. They have no home coverage. Under new leadership they have no direction (yet).  They have an ownership as stable as the next rumor that they are trying to sell. They are a baseball team this year because they were a baseball team last year and baseball teams just don't go away. 

This Spring will be an exercise in finding the bright spots.  In again looking for what might be part of the next great Nats team and evaluating them.  In again scouring the minors for any unexpected bright spot that can make you think tomorrow will be better than today because today should be very bad. In again trying to figure what the Nats can get for their tradeable assets. 

It'll be about staying out of the league cellar, the division cellar, and maybe sneaking into 4th.  It'll be about being a feeder team in August and playing spoiler in September. It'll be about the baseball happening around the Nationals more than the baseball happening within. 

It'll be about Cade Cavalli and James Wood and Dylan Crews and Brad Lord and Daylen Lile and Brady House and a lot of other names of kids in their early to mid 20s and a lot of prayers that things go right. 

It'll be about dives in the hole and long throws and ninth inning comebacks and moonshot homers. It'll be about getting too excited about a 4 game winning streak. It'll be about reading too much into stats on April 24th even though every year we tell ourselves not to do that. It will likely be bad and inconsequential most of the time but it will be baseball.  Baseball will start this week. Even for the Nats. 

Who watches the Nats-men?

The Washington Post sports department is no more. That really sucks for Nats fans and leaves the Nats coverage in limbo, especially after MASNs dissolution earlier in the year. This begs the question - who is covering the Nationals? I mean REALLY covering them, not covering them like me, giving out free content that's worth the price of admission.

I don't know about local TV stations which will presumably continue their usual light coverages of the team and local sports talk which will continue to talk and interview guys to fill time in the long summer. The Washington Times is unlikely to move from their position of AP aggregator with the occasional Nats column. Jessica Camerato is mlb.com's Nationals reporter and should be fine for game updates but any digging into the team comes with the news from Pravda caveat. The Athletic, one giant grift to earn its founders money while killing off local sports sections, never fulfilled it's "cover every team" promise and seems unlikely to do so.  Perhaps though there will be a "DC" reporter - covering all the remaining teams until football season starts. I'm sure Dan Steinberg, former long-time Postie now in a management role over there, is at least considering it. 

 The best bet though probably is Mark Zuckerman taking things back to his beginnings. He's in a slightly different place now and probably has grander designs given the crash of the Post, but some sort of DC specific site with a dedicated Nats guy feels likely to me, if they can get it off the ground. 

Such is the state of Nats coverage. And coverage is important. With no one holding their feet to the fire, with no one holding them at least sometimes publicly accountable, the management of the team can feel a bit freer to do whatever they want, and if whatever they want to do is make this team the Pirates then that's what they'll be. 

How it went wrong

Teams rebuild all the time. If you aren't blessed with an owner willing to spend your team cycles through times when they spend more and times when they spend less based on the talent they have. What you don't do is rebuild from a rebuild. This is what the Nats are doing and it means one simple thing : 

The Nats screwed up. 

So the question is where and when and like many things that are wrong it's not just one moment, but a series of bad decisions and bad luck that lead them to this point. 

1) The Nats had a stretch of very bad drafts. 

 The Nats were never really known as a strong development team and their drafts were first pumped by the can't misses of Strasburg and Bryce, then by Rizzo's "all or nothing" strategy paying off with guys like Rendon and Giolito. But the strategy of all or nothing in a place like the draft usually gives you nothing and the Nats had very thin drafts and in the quest for a title that thin layer of talent from 2013-2016, Nick Pivetta, Dane Dunning, Jesus Luzardo, was the needed trade fodder. 

Still one decent player a year can hold a org up. But the 2015, 2017, 2018 and 2019 drafts were all terrible ones for the Nats. The 2018 one especially stands out with their first 3 picks and 6 of their first 7 never reaching the majors.  Leaving the Nats with the emptiest of coffers when time came to rebuild

2)  The Nats bet on the wrong horses / don't develop well.

You don't trade ALL your best talent and the Nats did keep guys around they liked. They ended up holding on to Austin Voth, Erick Fedde, Carter Kieboom, Seth Romero - guys that amounted to very little -while dealing guys that did something. How much of that is talent and how much development?  Who was asked for and who did the Nats say were off-limits?  We'll never know but they basically rolled snake eyes on the high draft picks kept around.

3)  The Nats got "unlucky" with the Strasburg signing

 In hindsight the way to go was to let both the oft-injured Strasburg and Rendon go and bet on keeping Trea and Max. That's hindsight.  In the moment the Nats felt (and the fans wanted) them to keep one or both of these champions. The Nats bet on Strasburg and lost. Of course if they bet on Rendon they would have likely lost too. Not much they could have done here but once you sign him he's one of your tent poles for the next half-decade. 

4) The Nats misread the COVID season.

A team not committed to just spending should always be prepared to rebuild as sports are fickle beasts and guys that hit .300 today might hit 250 tomorrow. The Nats though got caught flat-footed. Post Championship the Nats were looking to compete still. They had just signed Corbin and backed it up with a signing of Strasburg long term. You could see the wheels turning on how the next team would shape up.  Would it involve Max and Trea? Soto? Where would guys like Kieboom, Robles, Voth, and Luis Garcia fit in? 

Then 2020 happened and Stras barely pitched and Corbin was bad and Fedde wasn't progressing and Voth seemed outmatched and Robles regressed and Kieboom looked like he was dropped on a baseball field from an alien planet. Without Rendon the line-up wasn't good enough to carry the team. Surely this was just the weirdness of the COVID season. So the Nats didn't see a pitching staff that simply didn't exist anymore and didn't rebuild right then and there. Instead waiting a year and seeing what 2021 would bring

5) The Nats blew the Max/Trea trade along with several others in 2021 

Halfway through 2021 and obviously not a real contender anymore because the staff was basically just Max, the Nats decide to pull the trigger on the Max/Trea trade.  They sent them off to the Dodgers to get the core of the next great Nats team, potentially built around Juan Soto (but likely not).  In came a ton of minor leaguers headlined by two of the Dodgers top prospects in Keibert Ruiz and Josiah Gray. 

They were legit prospects but two mid Top 100, older for prospects, guys who were more likely to be contributors than stars. Still we don't know what the Nats were offered and you take the best you can. Perhaps this was it. But the best thing they got overall was Lane Thomas* and that's not the rebuilding core you expect to have after trading away what might be two HoFers (one in his prime with time left on the contract) and a bunch of useful pieces. Just whiff after whiff here

At this point, even though they would objectively nail the Soto trade, the Nats were done. That trade became all the Nats had to rebuild with. The 2020 draft and beyond weren't barren but they didn't produce the immediate talent you'd hope for heading into what they knew at the time would potentially be a rebuild.  Even the incredibly deep 2023 draft had the Nats with the #2 pick grabbing Crews who has developed perfectly well but also has not been impactful as six of the 12 players drafted immediately after him**. 

There was not a bunch of guys creating stars and filling in gaps. There was one - Brad Lord.  Maybe 2 if you count "defensive OF" which Jacob Young was. There maybe more coming but the timing for the rebuild when you give up in 2022 is to see a path forward in 2025, which they did. And see it start to come together in 2026, which it did not.

 

The Nats didn't see the issues of 2020 were real and long lasting and waited a half-season too long to begin the rebuild. Thanks to a traditionally weak drafting ability they didn't have the organizational depth to support the rebuild, creating very little talent while keeping the wrong guys. When tasked to begin the rebuild whiffed on a number of trades giving the Nats half the base they might expect and they couldn't find immediate impact guys in the draft or through international signings. 

Rizzo blew it. As a bad drafter who relied on big bets paying off but a decent trader, he needed to nail all the trades to set this up or get lucky again in the draft.  He didn't get lucky and he got the trades wrong at the worst time.  

 

 *Drew Millas was part of this group so I guess we can say the jury is still out. I guess.  

**and four of those were HS guys  

Monday Quickie - Abrams

I do have more to come but you know - snow storm .

So for today - what do you expect back for CJ Abrams. They don't HAVE to trade CJ but it seems EXTREMELY unlikely that they will be competitive in the time before he becomes a FA.  Are they going to be good enough to convince him to stay?  Do you take that chance instead of selling him on a decently high note with a couple years of control left?  The way I read the Nats management the answer is no. 

So what do you want back for him? What do you expect back for him?  

 If it's like Gore would you be happy with 2-3 prospects that are near the top of a middling minor league organization?  The quantity over quality approach?  Or are you wanting a more solid prospect.  A Top 100 type that you can at least point to as likely to be a major leaguer of some level than the lottery ticket approach.  Is there anyone else you are looking to sell? Luis Garcia seems like he could go.  Jacob Young? He doesn't quite have a place here if you love Daylen Lile.   

GOING... GOING... GORE!

To the Rangers for 5 prospects. 

 I'll delve into it more when we have the names but the Rangers system is weaker but in part due to injury and bad 2025s - which yes, I know but these guys can turn around pretty quickly.  

The name that is in there Gavin Fien, a guy that's arguably Top 2-4 in the Rangers system but also arguably outside the Top 100 overall. He is supposed to hit well and profiles to be a decent fielding 3B or a 1B/RF type (good enough glove to play SS in HS, not slow but probably not quick enough to be a major league SS).  But he's 18 and with 10 A-ball games under his belt a long way off. 

 Prepare to stink!  

https://www.mlb.com/news/mackenzie-gore-trade-to-rangers-from-nationals

 

 

UPDATE : 

Names already in.  We were never going to see Sebastian Walcott (their best prospect and a legit top one in baseball) but I was hoping to see some of the arms that looked good but had off years for reasons.  

Alejandro Rosario was one of them.  A real good arm but out until 2027.  Which is worse when he already missed all of 2025.  (He tried to wait out needed TJ surgery but it didn't work and he got it recently) That means he'll be throwing again after a full two years off and at age 25 not throwing in AA yet. But still one of the names I hoped to see. 

Devin Fitz-Gerald is a nothing IF. A kid but one that projects to have no pop and no one is raving about any of his other skills.  Will have to surprise.  

Yeremy Cabrera is another kid (under 20 last year) this one being all skills and hoping to see it translate into... something. The speed does work on the basepaths and he has a good eye but that's about it right now. That's not nothing but those are your complimentary skills. 

Abimelec Ortiz is a non-athletic (for baseball players - more athletic than us probably) 24 yo with pop but swings and misses a bit much and gets eaten alive by lefties. Maybe there's a platoon bat here, but probably not.

Offseason Position Discussion : RP

First I'd like to thank the Nats for doing next to nothing this off-season so we can get through all this without being interrupted.  Much appreciated

The Nats 2024 was a stop gap year in relief where they brought in some older guys they never meant to keep and traded out some assets at the end of the year. Outside of Kyle Finnegan and Jose Ferrer there wasn't much of a plan.  They signed a weaker set of guys in 2025 and hoped for the best.  It didn't happen. The Nats had arguably the worst relief pitching in basebal in 2025. 

Presumed Plan : 

Clayton Beeter and pray for rain?  If there's a place where "plan" is going to far, it's the bullpen where the Nats are going with a bunch of untested arms because why sign anyone? It doesn't matter! <insane laughter as fans go mad> 

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

It's basically a given that the place you try to save money is in the pen.  You don't know how much you will use them. Guys can have weirdly good performances out of nowhere.  It makes sense if you feel the need to cheap out somewhere to do it there. The Nats have historically felt that way since riding out actual good pens very early in the "Strasburg Window".  

 

Of course that was Rizzo and it's possible the new management feels differently. So we don't know. But it does seem clear that money isn't going to be spent so why assume it would be spent here?  

My Take : 

Jesus Christ this could be bad.  They were the worst last year and right now they are putting no effort into making it better. 

From the comments some of you seemed resigned to a terrible team to the point where you are like "signing anyone would actually be a mistake!"  Stop that. That's owner talk.  They have money. They can make the team good here and there (another bat, another arm, a few more bullpen arms) and not block anyone. Playing bad kids isn't helping anyone. Playing a ton of cheap talent to "see what you have" is not to find something good but to pay people nothing for a year without getting yelled at. Yell.  

 If the Nats aren't going to try to be playoff worthy that's a decision I'll accept in the "that's what teams do" way.  But if they aren't going to try to be major league worthy - nah.  I'm not down for that. 

 Anyway sign a couple of real arms for the pen!  They need them!  Desperately!  

 

Offseason Position Discussion : SP

2024 was a pleasant surprise for the Nats in terms of the SP as while Gore didn't develop as he should, Trevor Williams pitched like a near ace for the third of the season he was healthy and Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker, and DJ Herz all surpassed expectations.  Yes, that only meant they were all "usable" but a staff of an near ace, a stretch 2, and three average arms is pretty good, especially on a shoestring budget

So the Nats basically pushed to repeat the year with FA pick up Michael Soroka taking the place of the injured DJ Herz. It would be a stretch sure if all these guys did the same but Gore should be better and if we got a "one better, one same, one worse" from the rest that wouldn't be bad at all. 

Of course with all these guys going over expectation it was probably more reasonable to expect "one same, one worse, one much worse" but I'm not an optimist. Anyway

1) Gore was NOT better. At least not for the whole year.  He was much better early on but wear and tear and the eventual  injuries seemed to knock him back down to average again.

2) Irvin and Parker were both much worse. As was Williams but at least Williams was starting from "ace" which left him as just a guy (who also had some bad luck to counter his good luck in 2024) 

Soroka was basically what you wanted but given the SP took about three steps back he wasn't the final piece but maybe their second best arm? Adding insult to injury the Nats made a questionable signing from Japan in soft tosser Shinnosuke Ogasawara who promptly was as bad as everyone thought he'd be. 

If you are looking for some good news . Brad Lord looked very competent stretched into the starting role for half the year while Andrew Alvarez and Cade Cavalli both had September that suggest they might be able to hang in the majors.  

Presumed Plan : 

I'll guess now Gore, Lord, Cavalli, ?, ?.  The money is on Josiah Gray getting first crack at it in the "ok we're not Mike Rizzo's staff. Can we do something here" way.  Foster Griffin, from Japan, who has at least always excelled at keeping the ball in the park is likely 5 but that's more an open spot for whatever impresses. 

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

Nats aren't competing next year.  They are looking at what they have while likely trying to show case some of what's here with a clock already started.  Gore might be moved, but he's a pitcher who shows best when healthy and you are usually healthy to start the year. You might get a better deal waiting a couple months and having Gore throw some ace like numbers out there.  

 

Behind Gore it's literally just "I don't know this" With Cavalli the closest thing to an interesting arm you want to see.  The season is mostly about him and Jarlin Susana who could make his debut.  

My Take : 

They should sign someone. Yeah yeah "we need to look at these guys".  You know at least the base of what you have.  An oft-injured #1 a couple young guys fairly close to injury comebacks, a guy who you are rolling the dice on from Japan, and a guy who's never pitched a complete season before.  Unless you want to kill your bullpen you need someone to soak up innings.  Miles Mikolas. Chris Paddack.  Someone your expectation is that they throw 150 innings, not your hope. 

 Beyond that I personally like Gore and like to see a guy who has ace stuff even if he doesn't throw it all the time.  Gives a reason to tune in. So I hope they don't trade him but I expect they will. Could be tomorrow could be at the deadline. 

And the rest is just whatever. This isn't a team with a plan it feels like. Instead it's a team using this year to figure out what the plan is.  

 

Offseason Position Discussion : DH

Josh Bell returned to the Nats as a cheap DH option for 2025 to bridge the gap between competitiveness and not. A well-liked vet who had a couple of quietly solid years with the Nats in 2021 and 2022 Bell had bounced around unable to get back to levels you want a guy focused on hitting to be at. The reunion looked very dicey as Bell started extremely slow and followed up a good May with a terrible June. But Josh's second half was better and he ended the season very hot putting up a .292 average with 6 homers in the last month. 

All in all it wasn't a failure for the Nats at the position, but in the plan that he was a bridge player as the Nats enter 2026 more unsure than entering 2025.  Bell himself is off to play in Minnesota leaving the Nats looking for a replacement. Lile and Wood both spent time at DH as the Nats rotated in OFs to get ABs. 

Presumed Plan : 

???? Sign someone I guess? 

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

The Nats would prefer to see if Wood and/or Lile can hang in the outfield. More value lies there. So while either of them could end up there by September designating them a DH to start the year is unlikely. The team has no obvious options staring them in the face so it's hard to come up with the presumed plan. which could range from letting kids get hacks to doing a rotating OF situation where the DH is a rest spot to signing just a guy to fill the role. Since the new Nats management has to do SOMETHING one assumes, grabbing a veteran bat late feels like the most reasonable option 

My Take : 

Internally, there are lots of bad options from the "Better to keep in AAA and see if they are something first" Yohandy Morales and Harry Ford to the "but he can't really hit" use of any of the kids that might be on the bench this year like Robert Hassell and Jacob Young. It's hard for me to believe the team would move in this direction just to save a few bucks.  If they do, god save the fan. 

 

I also think the Wood/Lile situation will force one of them to DH at some point in the next 1-2 years but which one is a question that needs to be answered and only can be by putting them both in the OF. This makes sense and while I'm not against setting one of these guys at DH to start the year, I think it's more prudent to settle everything first.  

 

So we end up here - signing another Josh Bell to see what you can get. There are two minds about this for me - well three but I don't think they are actually going to sign a good bat (1) sign a guy that WAS good that can possibly teach the kids something.  Paul Goldschmidt? Cutch! That seems to be about it as Carlos Santana is still good and other guys are past their selling date.  I talked about Luis Arraez back when discussing first base, I guess he'd fit here too.  (2) Sign someone in their 20s and see what happens. Eloy Jimenez is the big name the former can't miss guy that did ok and has been on a career walk-about the past couple of years. Will Brennan looks to be a AAA hitter but that's more than you can say for some of these guys. No great choices but you are aiming for someone who will come to DC for cheap to have a chance. 

 

I don't care really. Assuming they aren't in it to do anything this is a stop gap player.  I like the last two names better just because if you find a lottery ticket maybe you can keep the money but whatever. Just do something a major league organization would do.  

Monday Quickie - Back on the horse

The holidays are over and it's time to get serious. 

But what does that mean? 

For the Nats we still don't know. After the trade of Jose Ferrer for Harry Ford the Nats made two moves. 

1) Traded Jake Bennett for Luis Perales.  This was a "good prospect for good prospect" trade where the Red Sox looking for a certain type of pitcher, were willing to give up a good prospect of their own. Perales is arguably "more certain" than Bennett - younger, closer to the majors and both missed 2024 with injuries - but we all know not to take that too seriously for pitching prospects.  

This doesn't really tell us anything about the Nats management mindset

2) Signed Foster Griffin. This is a chance on a guy that had a great pedigree a decade ago, but he never really clicked as a starter in the majors. Muddled through a bit of relief for a couple of teams and their AAA affiliates, before heading to Japan to reset himself as a starter. It worked so now he comes back presumably in that role. He doesn't give up homers, but he doesn't fool many people either and his control is here and there. It's not 100% clear that combination can hang in the majors - really depends on how many of those balls in the park are hits. A great defense would help and I'm not sure the Nats have one... but maybe they could with some shifts toward that. Nunez at SS.  Not having Wood and Lile both in the OF.  But that's not been determined

Again not really telling us anything. 

 What are we looking for? A trade of a guy that could be / should be part of a winning Nats team in say 2027 - Gore/Abrams. Or a signing of someone that would be the same.  Some indication of whether this team is in for trying something the next couple year, or not. Once we see that we can set our expectations, not only for 2026 but 2027 and maybe 2028 as well 

Offseason Position Discussion : OF

As much as the infield is a mess of question marks and prayers, the OF for the Nats at least has some sense to it.  Building over the past few years of trades and drafts the Nats OF in 2025 ended as something that the team would like to carry for several seasons. 

James Wood followed up his fine half-season rookie campaign with a full season of solid baseball, making the All-Star team with a great first half before a second half swoon and focus on his weak defense knocked his season down a bit. Dylan Crews got his first extended taste of the majors and disappointed in an injury riddled season at the plate but not quite to the point where they had to give up on him. That's different than great defender Jacob Young who after an acceptable 2024 at the plate was handed a spot only to swing his way out of it.  But that, and Crews injury, left the door open for Daylen Lile to play a lot and he responded knocking line drives all over the place in the second half of the year.  

In addition Robert Hassell got a decent amount of playing time too but didn't hit, and Alex Call DID hit but at 30 didn't feature into the Nats future plans and was sent over the the Dodgers in a late season trade.  

Presumed Plan : 

Wood, Crews, and Lile start in the outfield and play there unless they are so bad the Nats are forced to make a change. Young sticks around at 4/5 to play late game D. and Hassell/someone else rounds out the bench. 

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

This is what the Nats had been planning for. A top notch super young OF.  It isn't the exact set of players they would have expected - Hassell would have likely been in here as a starter not Lile. But you stack quantity and quality to get to this point. All these guys need more time to show what they really are. The only question is whether the defense suffers too much in this configuration. But that's not something you let hold this back. You figure the bats first. 

My Take : 

There's no issue here. This is what should be done and what will be done.  

 

I do worry about the defense. For all of Young's poor hitting he could field and Crews and him could make up for Wood's lack of range. With him out, Crews could be a superior defender but it's hard to ask his range to cover for both corners playing poorly. So you'd really like to see Wood and or Lile become average defenders. 

 

There is a lot to like here but also things to worry about.  Wood does almost everything right but that swing and miss percentage is terrible. Good thing he's got a good eye but it feels like maybe baseball could exploit this.  Crews has a weird situation where he should be better but his actual stats have never matched what his fancy stats say. Now granted the fancy stats in the majors eventually slid down closer to his performance but there still seems to be a gap. You think the regular stats will come up but that's not guaranteed.  Lile on the other hand swings a slower bat but hits everything right. But that's only one half-season.  It CAN work in the majors it's just that it's uncommon. 

Still you take the average path and one guy exceeds expectations, one guy hits it, and the last one is under? You have one very good or great player, and one starter. You take that. 

 

As for the 4th/5th I don't really care. I think you need a solid defender and Young is that but so is Hassell if they want to go that route for a year. 

 

One last thing is that the D could cause Wood or Lile to end up at DH while Young/Hassell/etc end up as the 3rd OF but for now I think they get a chance to prove they can't do it.  

Offseason Position Discussion : 3B

 

Gore still here? Ok we can move forward with this.  

2024 was a mess for the Nats at 3B.  They thought Trey Lipscomb who had an intersting end to 2023 might step in or for some reason known only to them, that never-was and clear never-would-be Nick Senzel might hold it down. These failed leaving Ildermo Vargas and Jose Tena manning the hot corner at the end of that year and leaving 2025 up in the air. 

The Nats responded by signing way too old Paul DeJong and his non-existant bat to pair with probably nothing Jose Tena. DeJong could still field but couldn't hit and being old he got hurt. Tena was nothing and again the Nats were scrambling having Amed Rosario play there until he was traded and former top prospect, now prospect of mild interest, Brady House got his chance. House also didn't hit but fielded ok making a nice failure bookend to the season

Presumed Plan : 

House plays 3B and they sign some trash FA to back him up.  Why assume they'll try something differently

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

Unlike Lipscomb and Tena, House, if not as touted as he once was, is still a real prospect. He really did handle AAA last year in over 60 games and the team wants a good long look at him in the majors. Since he can field this is a pretty easy call as he's not going to be a huge hole like an all-bat 3B might be if he doesn't get it at the plate. 

 

The Nats don't seem to be taking on any major money and hope that House is here the whole year so it makes sense 3B will be whoever they pick up for the 2B/3B or SS back-up roles. 

My Take : 

It's a better position than they've been in since signing actual "might be good" Candelario years back. House can play 3B and maybe he can hit. The fancy stats read as a guy who swings pretty well but hasn't acclimated to major league pitching yet, which is standard fare for call-ups so we really won't know until this year if the issues (not IDing pitches well at all is the big one - too few walks too many Ks, not quite squaring up) will clear up with time and experience. Clearly you let him play and see what happens. 

It'd be nice to have an actual guy who can play everyday back him up but this team isn't going to pay "everyday" money to a guy not playing everyday if they are rebuilding again. So whatever. If anything happens to House (or any of the IF) this path will lead to months of terrible ball with no upside and one can hope they understand that and are looking to put a decent product on the field for the new admin's first year but maybe not. Probably not. 

Argh, I don't want to go through this all again.  

Pining for the F(j)ords

The Nats don't have a lot of good pitchers.  Gore yes. Brad Lord probably and... uhhh Cavalli likely, Beeter looks good... uhhh Henry?   Anyway Ferrer was a young lefty (and MAN they do NOT have a lot of lefties) with good fancy stats that I also liked. But they sent him away to Seattle for a catcher, Harry Ford. 

So first what does this signal? Rebuild... probably 

Ferrer is only 25 with plenty of team control. Given the Nats lack of LH relief he's the type of guy you keep around. Ford is a prospect still and several years younger than Ferrer. He's more the type you are planning on the next 10 years, not the next 5. However I will say Ford is basically major league ready with the bat so it's not like he is going to spend the next couple years in AAA. 

But that also means he's pushing Ruiz and everyone else out (sorry Millas!) which again is very "rebuild" coded. 

 

Second is Harry Ford any good?  As a hitter yeah probably.  As a catcher... 

 As a hitter the guy has got a GREAT eye and the question is how good can the bat be and in what way. It seems like he could hit for power. It seems like he could hit for avearge. He's one of those "fast" catchers who will run well and steal bases early in their career. If it all comes together - unlikely but anything can happen -  super star! If one thing comes together - likely power - a solid player. If nothing does, still probably usable because of that eye. 

But this is all based around being behind the plate and there isn't a strong consensus if that will happen. He excels at parts of the game, fielding in front of the plate, strong arm, but lags behind in, you know, the CATCHER, parts of being a catcher. Still does that first part mean he could possibly move positions? Is this a Biggio situation where we see Ford at like 2B?  Hell the Nats also lack a 1B. 

I think they point is if he can hit - either for power or average or both (though again more likely power) then the Nats have a lot of options to find a place for him. Catcher if he can play it, 1B, DH, 2B if they want to move someone. If he can't hit - well you have to hope he gets better behind the plate because he can still have value as an average fielding catcher with a good eye. 

It's not a bad bet to take for the Nats as his ceiling is higher than Ferrer's but again it suggest the Nats are not going to worry about the next couple years. I think this may be the start of an exodus.  Let's see what the next 1-2 moves are though. 

Offseason Position Discussion : SS

It 2024 CJ Abrams flashed greatness, with a .295 7 homer April and hitting .373 / .464 / .663 in May earning him a trip to the All-Star Game and getting Nats fans excited about his potential. The only problem was... well... he might have been the worst fielding shortstop in baseball in years. 

The plan for 2025 was to start him at SS and hopefully watch him solidify his position as an MLB offensive star while playing some better defense.  This didn't quite happen. His 2025 at the plate mirrored his 2024 but with the highs and lows muted.  This left him above average at the plate but not close to stardom.  His fielding did improve but this just left him the worst fielding shortstop in baseball THIS year. Meanwhile Nasim Nunez flashed his incredible glove while putting up good enough offensive numbers leading Nats fans to wonder if a position shift is in order

Presumed Plan : 

Wide open but I'll say Abrams plays SS while Nunez enters super sub role. 

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

Nunez only played 24 games last year to add to his 23 in 2024. With that little time in the majors and very middling minor league batting stats, it's fair to wonder if he could in fact hit in the majors despite a very short impressive run late last year. 

Since you can't rely on Nunez to not be TERRIBLE at the plate yet you have to hold onto Abrams and let him see if he can improve his fielding with the new regime. Another player with questionable motivation the new organization will likely want a crack at a guy with super star potential to see if they can unlock it. 

 

And like in 2B comments, there are bigger fish to fry than an overall league average position.  

My Take :   

I don't buy Nunez at the plate and won't until I see him for half a season so I'm not very enthused to shift Abrams off SS.  But I do admit the logic in it and Nunez has to get that half a season at the plate somehow? Super sub can do it but a set position would be better.  

Abrams can be special so it seems likely to me that the new organization will want their own long look at him.  To me that means at SS first, but it's quite possible they've seen enough there. He is REALLY bad by all measures. He has no instincts which matters so much at SS. I mean he's so bad that HE'S the one that should be playing first, not Garcia. So if there's a position change that's where I probably lean. 

And a position change could be in order. Or a trade! Abrams is arbitration eligible and a free agent after 2028.  This year could up his value a lot OR it could set it at something lower if he just repeats 2025. That's the gamble. 

The way I see it Abrams' situation will tell us a lot about the Nationals new organization as a whole.  Are they in true evaluation mode trying to get THEIR feel of these guys? (Abrams at SS again)  Are they trying to optimize now (Abrams at 1B or DH even?) while they figure out the next steps?  Or are they ready to tear down what's here and look beyond 2028 (trade of Abrams) 

Me I'd prefer the second "optimize now and figure out if it's worth going for something in the next few years" so I guess I'd want to see Abrams moved off SS for whatever position (1B, DH, 2B?, 3B?) they choose not to deal with in 2026 while looking at other stuff. 

Offseason Position Discussion : 2B

After a rebound in 2024 to good stats at the plate and in the field, the Nats 2nd base situation was well set.  Luis Garcia can play there so Luis Garcia will play there. Ideally he would have stepped up again in 2025 but the opposite happened and a slight regression knocked him back to basically average at the plate and 2024 turned out to be the unsurprisingly fluke with the glove. But at least it was something that passed the season without worry. That's something right? 

Presumed Plan : 

Luis Garcia plays second base. Some FA pick-up and/or Nunez back him up, similar to 2025. 

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

Arguably every IF position but SS including catcher and both starting and relief pitching are bigger issues than what's going on at second base. There is no reason for the Nats to make a change for likely minimal gain.

What's going on at second is you have a guy who can hit sometimes and doesn't field very well and overall seems only mildly motivated to reach his potential. It's a recipe for a below average 2B that will remain below average but one that isn't forcing you to do anything. 

If Garcia was better you might try to deal him, but no one is going to give you much for a below average 2B. If Garcia was more expensive you might try to do something, but he's just hitting arbitration for the first time this year. 

My Take :   

There are some interesting ideas on what to do with Luis with Nunez having his hot finish and Abrams' inability to field SS holding down an otherwise good player. Moving Luis to first and Abrams to second so Nunez (an actual good fielder) might make sense.  A .252 / .289 / .412  16 homer line for a first baseman would probably put him at about the same 20-25 range he sits now.  The big difference is while at 2nd best he's about 3 wins worse than the 3rd or 4th best 2B despite being 15+ ranks below them, at 1B he'd likely be 4-5 wins worse.  Not THAT much worse but you'd probably HAVE to get that offensive improvement you'd hope to see. And we assume shifting two guys to easier positions would hide their glove issues but they are still playing new positions.  It's a gamble.  Might be worth it if the Nats commit to fixing the pitching in the off-season, but if not it's more shifting deck chairs.  

I think the general idea with Luis is you try to get his head focused on hitting and fielding better with the new regime, who he might gel with, and then you evaluate if you want to keep him around.  At only 26 next year there's still a chance he becomes a better player and I'm interested to see what another group can do with him, having seen Robles, a similar question mark, blossom in his limited time away from Rizzo and Davey. Plus a better 2B would likely get you more back than a 1B with the same stats. 

 Let Garcia keep being not a big problem and maybe he surprises.  

Offseason Position Discussion : 1B

A lot of things went wrong in 2025 but none were so clearly made to work NOW and so clearly a failure then the Nats' answer at 1B.  The Nats brought in Nathaniel Lowe with a trade* to man the position in 2025-2026 likely with an eye for having him possibly be there beyond. He had been a sneaky good 1B, one that ranked 5-10 overall with consistent solid hitting since arriving in the majors and glove that he worked into average to good. There was one thing they didn't consider though...

Nathaniel Lowe is a dog. 

In the only possible explanation, after struggling early Lowe stopped trying on a team heading nowhere showing terribly in the field and the plate. The Nats had no recourse but the jettison him for what ever they could get.  He immediately started trying again for the Red Sox putting up decent numbers and solidifying himself as a jackass. But knowing that doesn't help the Nats much. They are now unexpectedly without a 1B for 2026 with his positional replacement Josh Bell, who was signed for a 1 year stop DH gap, also gone.  

Presumed Plan : 

A FA stop gap with a back-up from within or a stretch trial for someone here with a FA stop gap DH as the quick back-up replacement. 

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

There's nothing in the minors. The Nats tried Andres Chaparro at the position but he didn't look good at the plate and isn't a natural fielder. He might turn the bat around to not be a total embarrassment but you don't want to go into a season relying on that. Yohandy Morales looked like he might be on the fast track for a trial but he struggled in AAA.  Completely reasonable for a 23 year old, but it does mean he doesn't factor into 2026 plans. 

There's nothing obvious here. You could move James Wood here now, but that seems premature given his age and you don't want to rock the boat with your best young player. You could move Daylen Lile here now, but you don't want to rock the boat with a young player just coming into his own. You could move Luis Garcia there now, but you have to imagine it's easier to find a 1B than a 2B. 

 So what's left is a FA. A FA 1B would make the most sense letting the Nats try to find a bat at DH and if the 1B fails maybe that DH takes over, but a free agent DH that could take over 1B is also a possibility.

My Take :  

Two positions in and there is nothing good or easy to speak of. The Nats need to fill this position and can't internally so to the FA pool they go.  They likely aren't serious about winning in 2026 so a Ryan O'Hearn (the best non Alonso option with Naylor off the table) isn't going to be a target. Is there any reason not to just bring back Josh Bell, a guy you like and has shown he'll play here and actually try? Guys like Carlos Santana, Paul Goldschmidt, and Justin Turner, are very slightly better than Bell and offer some veteran presence but could also just crash out. Rhys Hoskins and Luis Arraez make interesting gambles, especially Arraez whose batting approach resembles Lile's an approach that most players can't make work in the long term but he has, but both may be looking for multi-year deals, even if cheap ones, the Nats aren't likely to give. So after that no, there's not really a reason not to just bring back Bell. 

The specific DH field is weak. Schwarber who will get paid, Ozuna who I don't want, then nothing. So I don't like the FA DH route. 

I think looking at this I like Arraez for 2+ years if that what it takes but I'm not going to blame the Nats if they don't go this route. I also kind of think there might be a 2B around late in FA that would be worth grabbing.  We should keep an eye on that. However, I think most likely is they just sit and watch FA and in early March they grab the best hitter they can for a 1 year "prove it" deal and they figure out what that means for 1B.  I don't like it but I also am not going to fool myself to think that there's anything out there the Nats should go for or that they would go for it if they could. 

 

 *for Robert Garcia who immediately showed he was a very good lefty reliever - the type that would have likely brought back more in trade than Lowe.  

Offseason Position Discussion : C

 Huh. That was a longer break than I thought.  Thanks for the kind words in the comments. Yes, I'm not as motivated to post as I have been in the past, but rest assured I won't end the blog with a ghosting. First I'll try a couple new things if I really can't keep up what I've done in the past. Then I'll let you know if that ain't working for me. 

Speaking of what I've done in the past - Off-season position reviews. 

 

The Nats catcher situation was bad. Having your catchers hit .227 / .270 / .323 with at best mediocre defense is pretty terrible.  Hopes that Keibert was a victim of past injuries and his solid start was the "real" Ruiz were dashed on the rocks of the rest of the season. A Ruiz concussion mid-season forced more time for Riley Adams, who actually played more games at the position than anyone, but he lost his pop making him a worse hitter than Ruiz.  After the All-Star break, Drew Millas starting playing about every 3rd game and did pretty well but broke a finger at the end of August and was done for the season 

Presumed Plan : 

I'm not sure it's clear. If I were to guess I would say they are eyeing playing Drew Millas a lot more, even possibly letting him have a limited starting role (think 120 games) and jettisoning of one of Ruiz/Adams, likely Adams. It's possible that the one that stays behind doesn't even start the season in the majors and instead the Nats bring up a seasoned C to back-up/mentor Millas.

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

The plan for catcher that seemed so sure in 2021 has gone off the rails. Ruiz, who was solid all-around around that time, has regressed in all facets of the game. He simply cannot be assumed to have a starting position anymore. Adams, who was seen as a reasonable back-up, adding the punch that Ruiz never had, has lost that punch. While he's held his skills behind the plate, those were never good in the first place. At 30 mid-season next year you can't be thinking there's a renaissance happening. 

So Millas wins the position by default. He did well in a brief audition. He's at a make it or break it age on if he'll ever be worth something to this team.  The Nats have plenty of other issues to deal with that if they have an internal option they are likely to go with it. He's a solid defender with a good eye and looking at baseball in general they could do a lot worse that having a guy like that behind the plate as long as he can hit in the mid .200s.  

As for the back-up idea. I think Ruiz/Adams serving as back-up does nothing for them or the team.  You want Ruiz to figure out his issues, if that's possible, so that means playing time. He should be in the minors.  However, his contract might keep him up with the team.  If not, a guy like Luke Maile - very solid defender for many years, could fit in well giving Millas the best chance to succeed. 

My Take :  

Ruiz looks like toast and the Nats can't spend anymore serious major league time hoping he gets it.  And him as a back-up - bad hitter, bad defender - makes zero sense. So a test of the new regime will be where Ruiz ends up.  If his contract keeps him in DC that's a strike against them. I definitely prefer a veteran here - the type of vet Ruiz didn't really have himself with Adams serving as primary back-up for the past 3 years. 

Adams should be gone. It's that simple. Without the power I'm not sure what he offers other than a warm body.  He had a good long trial here.  It didn't work out. 

While I think Ruiz will have a chance to earn a spot - I also think Millas is simply better and unless he shows he's not recovered from his injury he should have the role. That is unless the team spends money or trades for something here but I doubt that.