Monday Quickie - (former) Nats in the playoffs

If rooting for (or against) former Nats in the playoffs is fun for you heres the list 

Blue Jays : Max! although they left him off the ALDS roster as he struggled at the end of the year. Jacob Barnes would also get a ring if they are generous (release by Tor in August) 

Yankees : Amed Rosario is it, though they have regular season Nats villain DJ LeMahieu and post-season Nats hero, Trent Grisham. 

Tigers : "Garbage" Kyle Finnegan was acquired by Detroit in a trade. Tanner Rainey pitched two terrible innings for the Tigers, and has not yet been released I don't think - but he's not in the playoffs or anything. 

Mariners : Super fun Davey mortal enemy Victor Robles is the only one here

 

Phillies : You know by now that the Phillies are built on the back of the Nats with Bryce, Trea, Schwarbs all in the starting line-up.  Former Nats prospect Jesus Luzardo starts for them and Joe Ross was also on the team this year.  The Nattiest team in the playoffs!

Brewers : Almost Nats free but ol' friend Erick Fedde threw some decent innings for them before being DFA'd to Nashville right before the end of the season. 

Cubs : Nats free! Yes Mike Soroka is on the Cubs!  Nats are everywhere! 

Dodgers : You know mid-season acquisition Alex Call is playing important innings for LA in the playoffs. Did you know that they gave Eddie Rosario a brief shot at DH this year? Worked out like you think it would. You know Blake Trienen is still blowing games in the pen but did you remember Luis Garcia was a Dodger this year before he was a Nat before he was an Angel? 

Lucky or Unlucky : 2025

I like to do this annually - figuring where the team got lucky and unlucky and seeing how that factored into this season and what might be read into 2026, given return to forms are often seen for people way under or over performing. 

 LUCKY 

Prospects can surprise but Daylen Lile hitting well enough to win player of the month of September and setting himself up for a starting role in 2026 was well above and beyond expectations. 

It was way more likely that Amed Rosario was at the end of his career than he would have the best season of his career at the plate but he did the latter. 

Uh... that's it

UNLUCKY 

Nathaniel Lowe was consistently good for his career. After being traded to Red Sox he was good again. He just was a dog for the going nowhere Nats. Who can know a man's heart? 

Neither Irvin and Parker were over their heads last year and could reasonably be expected to maintain their average performances but instead they were both flat out bad. Roll one snake eyes sure, but two? Unlucky. 

At 25 with a full season behind him, Jacob Young was more likely to get better this year but instead he crashed out of the Nats plans. 

No one expected Trevor Williams to be the pitcher he was for 13 games last year but going straight back to terrible was also a surprise. 

AS EXPECTED

This teams was built to be bad except for a few players. Wood, Abrams, and Gore were talented and they performed. Garcia, Bell, and a few arms in the pen were ok before and ok this year. The rest was a collection of mediocre to terrible players who performed mediocre to terribly and kids who could not and did not break out. 

 

So what does this tell us? The Nats were slightly unlucky this year which explains the slightly low win total in comparison to what we thought it might be. They weren't a good team but if everything with expectations broke even they should have gone over 70 wins. 

What can get better in 2026 just by running the same guys out there?  Well Williams/Irvin/Parker should end up with 2 averageish pitchers I guess. And... 

Well then that's it and really you are just looking at hoping kids like Crews and House and Cavalli do a lot better with a year under their belts.  Simply put there isn't much here to expect anything interesting from the same group run out again. Let's hope they don't do that. 

Monday Quickie - Season Wrap

So if you want to know what we guessed in wins it's here.  I had them at 71.  The group leaned into a bit higher but the winner in the clubhouse would be Matt with "high 60s"  Not quite! We all lose by Price is Right rules. 

We'll spend the week going over the season (promise!) but the general tone of it was one of disappointment and now a bit of concern.  The team is in the midst of a rebuild but also starting over with a new GM and new manager and that could easily kick the can on the rebuild another 5 years down the road. The pieces in place that look good (Wood, Gore, Abrams) are more likely then to be pieces sent away for the next set of magic beans than cornerstones of the next Nationals playoff team.  Let's hope this isn't the case but we must accept it could be. 

 Part of the problem was the lack of stepping up and the stepping down of players from last year's surprisingly watchable squad. The Amazing Fifth Starter Squad showed themselves to be... well 5th starters. The Trevor Williams bubble burst. Cavalli and Herz got hurt. Brady House and Dylan Crews in their first long stretches in the majors were not good. Jacob Young played himself out of a role. Nathaniel Lowe dogged his way out of DC. Ruiz continued to regresss if that was possible. Just a mess of "could be" answering "nope. not me. not this year at least" 

Along with that is the uncertainty of ownership.  The Lerners do not seem committed as a group to the team and they've even put it out there they'll sell for the right price, but can they get it?  

We did see the last of Rizzo and Davey which for most people was a relief. You know how I felt about Davey a manager that managed to undershoot expectations for the vast majority of his tenure with the team ending with the 2nd worst WP of any Nats manager even with the 93 win World Series team under his belt. Good riddance I say.  Rizzo I'm more on the fence about. He certainly showed his knack for trades and at times free agent signings but under a tighter budget where player development mattered more, his weakness was exposed. The man loved an all-in prospect strategy that gambled for the big impact players but left the minors shallow. When it hit it worked but when it didn't... well you see.  Perhaps the last round of these will pan out and give the next GM a solid base.  Willits looks real good and two of their other best prospects are from the last draft. 

 But that's the problem isn't it?  Outside of Susana, who we should see next season, everyone who should be here for THIS rebuild is here. And it's not coming together.  It's early but there's also not like a long window to these things.  They have another year, maybe two and then you gotta decide to move on or not.  Right now the data says move it.  Are you ready for another 4-5 years in the wilderness?  

It could be different. If the next management group believes in these guys and signs some help. That will be their first job and how they react this off-season will tell us what we likely need to know about the next 5 years.  

Last Week what's up

 There will be a rundown of everyone at the end of the year so no particular reason to go over Nunez's power surge or Wood's power drop (before today) right now. Instead let's meet some newer guys since there are a lot of new faces around 

 

Jorge Alfaro - in the "we gotta try something behind the plate" world that the Nats are in - here is Alfaro.  If the name sounds familiar we was a big-time prospect about a decade ago for the Phillies, a key piece to the Rangers trade for Hamels in 205 and the Phillies trade for Realmuto in 2019. He had performed ok for Philadelphia with a powerful bat and one of the best behind the plate at gunning out runners. He looked like a long time catcher for someone given how bad that position can be. 

But post trade Alfaro never really solved his biggest problem - inability to ID strikes - and his walk rate and K-rates were so poor they demanded a high .200s average, A real touch ask for a catcher who isn't going to leg out anything. Meanwhile the other aspects of his defense weren't as stellar as his arm and he has slowly become a back-up. 

 As far as back-ups go a guy that might swing into one and can keep runners honest is two more things than Ruiz is doing right now and one more than Adams. He wouldn't be the worst guy to keep around as a back-up but he can't be the starter for any teams that isn't tanking. 

That's it at the plate 

On the mound

Andrew Alvarez - Nats draftee who spent 4+ seasons proving himself to be a fringe major leaguer.  When he's on he keeps the ball on the ground and the hits weak to counter the fact that he can be a little wild and doesn't miss bats. At 26 he's probably not going to suddenly become good. Instead he's in the Irvin/Parker range of maybe he can give you a decent year or two. 

PJ Poulin - waiver claim several weeks ago. His stuff can be electric but as usual that also means he's wild.  As far as it goes though that wild does not mean "can be prone to a long ball" so you can mostly take it. I'll never complain about a live-arm lefty for nothing. 

Konnor Pilkington - a high draft pick for Chicago in 2018 there isn't much to recommend about him.  His arm is ok but he's wild enough that even getting abnormally great results in 40 innings AAA for the Nats (5H/9  0.4HR/9) this year he still put up a 2.59 ERA. Granted this was in his first real full time commitment to relieving, something that's been toyed with him since 2022. They should keep trying that but it's hard to see it working out for the 27 year old. 

Clayton Beeter -  Dodgers high draft pick and Yankees reliever speaks pretty highly of the guy as the Dodgers draft well and the Yankees develop strong relievers. Maybe elite swing and miss stuff but can be ALL over the place. One of those guys if he ever "gets it" would be a top closer but you just don't know. Like PJ definitely worth throwing out there

Orlando Ribalta - In theory just an organizational arm who in 2024 had a year that made you think "wait do we have something here?" but 2021-2023, and 2025 all say "no not, really" Imagine he sticks around as a AAAA type. 

Sauryn Lao - Waiver claim just after Labor Day. The Mariners were oddly stretching him out from a reliever to a starter before letting him go.  He barely has a full season of stats on him for his entire three year career so I'm not sure what to make of him. But when two other major league teams have said "nah" you probably aren't finding something. 

 

Who is Daylen Lile? What is Daylen Lile? HOW is Daylen Lile?

Daylen Lile is hot right now.  He's been up almost half a year and is closing in on 300 PA.  in that he's hit a solid .282 / .327 / .450 line and it's only been better in the second half .318 / .360 / .523. How excited should you be from a guy that probably entered 2024 the 6th Nationals outfielder to watch on some lists*

He's a legit prospect (2nd round pick) and while is isn't super young he's right in there with Wood and House which is frankly young enough for anyone that isn't a phenom. He seems to ID pitches well and makes great contact hitting a good deal of line drives. He's fast and can get that extra base from the balls he hits. He's good.

He's a mediocre fielder with a weak arm. He doesn't generate a lot of bat speed or barrel up the ball, and doesn't hit a lot of fly balls, so he doesn't generate a lot of "true" power, instead relying on legs for those XB.  Despite IDing pitches well he seems impatient late in counts and is not working his way on base like he should. He's not amazing. 

I'd be pretty excited for Lile in that it's always good to have as many good players as you can and Lile, seems good. The general track - HS star - legit prospect - solid minor league stats - is what you hope to see from your best prospects. He has all the skills, he seems to be using them.  That he isn't a great fielder shouldn't be an issue but with Young not hitting at all and Crews taking a slow path to being a starter, it matters a little. If you ever have to pull Crews from CF you can't just shift him or Wood over. 

It's seemingly clear that the power for 30 homers seasons isn't there.  It's not his major league level nor really how he hits in general. That was always true but you project out some for kids. He just isn't getting to that projection. But 15-20 seems reasonable and if he's hitting .280+ that's almost good enough. 

Really it comes down the the walks.  By all accounts his eye is good and in the minors he did take his share of free bases. I'm not exactly sure why he isn't in the majors right now - could be a bunch of things - but the answer is NOT his eye isn't good with major league stuff. It is. So it's a question of choice it seems and if he chooses to be a little more patient and you have a guy getting on base .350+ well then - that's a player.  

Half a season is half a season but Lile has the skill set available to him to be a solid major leaguer. The contact bat looks to be there now (but we'll have to see over a full year next year), the speed is there, the eye needs to follow because the glove and power likely won't**.  That'll likely be the difference between Lile being a nice 3rd/4th OF type and a solid starter.  Of course maybe he'll just hit .320 instead of .280, or and then we don't care about the eye anymore

 *lists that didn't read my takes on Elijah Green 

 **Yeah the power looks ok but legged out triples are a LOT more like doubles imo. I feel a lot of run production stats over count for triples.

Monday Quickie - What's wrong?

 ok yes everything but nothing has gone right for this squad since early June.  At one point they were 30-33, then went on a 20-53 stretch.  The last 5-1 brings it up to 25-54 which is just over a 50 win pace for a season. Yikes. 

You can't blame the firings - Davey and Rizzo were gone in the middle of this. You can't blame the trade deadline. Yeah it made the team weaker but they aren't losing squeakers because of a weakened pen.  Here are some 2nd half splits 

Brady House .225 / .224 / .292 (1 walk!) 

Jacob Young .223 / .284 / .287

Dylan Crews .206 / .299 / .294

James Wood .207 / .289 / .328 

CJ Abrams .225 / .281 / .376

Jake Irvin 8.86 ERA 1.848 WHIP

Mitchell Parker 7.63 ERA 1.603 WHIP

MacKenzie Gore 7.54 ERA 1.757 WHIP

 

This is your goddamn core and it's a group looking like it would have trouble winning in AAA as opposed to be what you build around.  

You can blame Gore's pitching on injury and Young / Parker / Irvin on never really being good (and thus not being an overly critical part of the future) but the rest is very worrisome.  

James Wood is striking out at an alarming rate up from 28% to 40%.  

Dylan Crews remains unable to lift anything hitting over 50% of his balls into the ground. 

Brady House  is not walking and not making enough contact in general. 

 

I'm not sure what you do here but I think you have to clear out the remaining staff that Davey and Rizzo put here. It's not working. It's actively HURTING. 

Oh about Gore

Yeah I was only doing bats. Gore is the only arm that I think deserves talking about in terms of a long-term signing. I like Lord and Ferrer but relief pitching is notoriously fickle, neither of these guys is lights out (or likely to be that) so they just feel very replaceable and not something you gamble money on keeping past age 30.  As arms go Parker and Irvin are nothing to hold on to. I mean I guess if they want to be REAL reasonable and sign for cheap so they don't have to move... 

 You can wonder about Cavalli who was supposed to be good and who has looked good since coming back from injury but that last part puts a damper on the whole thing.  He's just back. Now's not the time to double down on the arm. Let's see it last through a whole season first. 

 So Gore, I think you do try to sign him. I think he's a weak #1 but a #1 regardless, even given recent struggles. But he's also on a collision course with getting paid way too much for what he's done. So... I don't know if it gets done. I don't know if a fair offer, or even a moderate overpay gets you Gore. But where do you get pitching then? 

 Susana and Sykora both look fairly strong but you are looking at... 2028 before you are counting on them to be good? And the only thing less reliable that FA pitching are pitching prospects. 

 So much hinges on this and you have to get it right. Trading for Gio, the first Stras extension, the Scherzer FA contract. All hits. The team soars. The signing of Corbin (post-2019), the second Stras contract. Huge misses. The team crashes. 

 Sigh... this one isn't as easy but I still lean toward making a good faith effort to sign him. Not a Wood "pay the man what he wants" but an above market deal now. And if he refuses so be it. Treat him like a key piece but not the only piece. You expect to win with Gore, but not to have Gore carry you. I think that's right. 

Who to sign long-term

You can win in several ways in baseball but the current hotness is to "rebuild" sign a bunch of your young players while they are young so they don't cost as much and hope that if you sign 6 that 2 work out and money wise that still probably saves you enough money to spend on FA. 

Of course because people LOVE to go into the comments to say "It's not up to the Nats..." "Scott Boras won't let them..." I'll note here that what we want to see is a concerted and public effort to make these signings. If the public part bothers the players so be it. The fans need to know the team is trying in good faith.  So shutta ya traps! 

 Let's look at the bats 

James Wood

Pros : He's so young! He's so good!

Cons : He's so expensive (relatively) because he's already good. 

Decision : Sign him dummies. If you aren't trying with guys like Wood then what's the point honestly. Call yourselves the Potomac Pirates, the Rockville Rockies and be done with it. 

CJ Abrams

Pros : He plays the IF, is fun to watch, and is clearly the second best bat on the team right now. Still plenty of time until he hits FA (2029) so you can get value

Cons : From reports attitude can go up and down. Plays SS but pretty poorly. 

Decision : Could go either way. I think you need to get either him or House signed though. 

Dylan Crews 

Pros : Nearly everything about his fancy stats and college performance suggest the guy has star potential. Getting comfortable in the OF where he should be good. Super fast. So seems like there'd be a place for him even without a bat. 

Cons : Always had great fancy stats and lacking actual stats.  

Decision : Wait probably. I think the discrepancy between performance and potential will create too big a gap between what the Nats should offer and what Crews would take. But check-in. 

Brady House 

Pros :  He's already a solid fielder in the IF and there's a lot to like about his swing. Good runner.  

Cons : He's a bit too much of a free swinger and needs to strike out less if he's not going to walk more or else that average/OBP will hang on him

Decision : I'd probably go with him first over Abrams just because an IF that can field that might hit strikes me as slightly better than an IF that can hit that will never field. But I'd like them both to be honest. 

Robert Hassell

Pros : if you look at the fancy stats you could argue he's a better Brady House right now. Good field, slightly better approach and swing, faster. Seemingly finally coming around. 

Cons : The biggest difference between House and Hassell is the 2 year gap. Hassell HAS to come around now or might not ever.  Also a big difference is Hassell plays OF where the Nats have choices and it's easier to stick a FA. House plays IF.  Even if Hassell is coming back one injury derailed him for 2 1/2 years. What happens the next time?

Decision : I've always liked Hassell but I'm a realist here if you can get him for reasonable 4th OF money, sure try it. If he wants more pass bc I worry one more injury makes him a big nothing. 

Daylen Lile 

Pros : Young and holding his own in the majors at the plate for a couple months. If not a OBP machine, at least it patient at the plate. Hits a lot of nice line drives and balls up. 

Cons : Not great in the OF, probably the least "prospecty" of your choices. It's not like the team is lacking in young OF that you gotta nail this one down. 

Decision : Pass.  Prove me wrong Daylen 

Anyone Else? 

Nunez can't hit and isn't that young. Tena can't field and is mediocre at the plate. Lipscomb is overmatched. Young is an excellent fielder but is showing regression at bat and is an non-intuitive baserunner. Garcia is an average hitter and can hold 2B who flashes some good hitting stretches. 

Decision : If you can get Garcia down through age 30 or so, I'd do it. One of the things teams do is find ways to cheaply not have problems and Garica at 2B isn't a problem. I think he probably will be as he ages out though and he doesn't have the bat to be 1B or DH so you don't want him here forever but if you can not think about 2B through 2030, even if it's just as "could be worse" I think that's good.  Young and Tena are worth carrying around but only bc you can do it for the minimums. I wouldn't pay for it past into FA. 

No Mo Lowe

The Nats brought up Dylan Crews today, back from injury and ready to get some more at bats.  To clear a roster spot they didn't cut 32 year old signed for a single year Josh Bell, who is hitting average from the DH spot. They didn't cut 31year old, well he can field if he can literally do NOTHING else, signed for a single year Paul DeJong.  They didn't cut 29 year old, never was catcher Riley Adams who doesn't do anything well.  Instead they cut 29 year old Nathaniel Lowe, who before this year was a solid bat and solid glove and the combination in a weak generation of first basemen, put him as a Top 10 player at that spot. 

Lowe has had a terrible year taking tremendous steps backward in every facet of the game.  Worse he's been worse recently. It's easy to see why the Nats cut him...yet

 At a decent contract for next year and with a long track record of decent play and an age that questions whether this is really a fall from playable to out of the game or just a very bad very long stretch, and we three better choice I'm not sure it was the right move. 

You hear a lot of cheering from Nats fans though, taking this as a bold move showing they aren't going to hold on to bad players but again, Bell is a DH barely hitting average, DeJong should be retired, Adams should be AAA organizational depth. They have other bad players they aren't cutting. This can't be what this is really about. 

It's not about bad players but about space. They need a place to rotate all these young bats and it won't be backing up the infield where DeJong is and it won't be at C where Adams it.  It will be at 1B/DH and if you have to choose between Bell and Lowe... well I can see choosing Bell. He's a well-loved teammate and maybe you bring him back next year to fill a LH bat and well maybe you just like him better.  And you really can't cut Adams with Ruiz hurt...

But it's also about space for next year I guess. Lowe would be at 1B and maybe they are already thinking about where to put everyone, or moving Wood over to DH/1B or something or trying Yohandy out there. So if that's the case, if we see a kid at 1B next year, ok then I get it.  But if it's just Bell shifted over in 2025 or another cast-off then I don't. 

Call Forwarding

 Alex Call was the last domino to fall - over to the Dodgers for a couple arms. As noted before Call was actually turning out to be good but if there was one place the Nats didn't have space for a player like Call it was OF where they want to play Wood and Crews and cycle through whoever else they want to look at.  Keeping a 4th OF is a luxury on a team like that. 

 

Sean Paul Liñan was a solid looking arm for High A that the Dodgers pushed to AAA to see if they had something really special. They didn't - he got hammered. Basically he has one GREAT pitch but everything else is lacking right now.  That's enough to dominate lower level hitters and get punished by better ones. But still a 20 year old with promise and a nice get. 

Eriq Swan is Elijah Green the pitcher.  He seems super athletic and can easily throw the ball up near 100 MPH. Can he control it? Nope. Is his pitch super unhittable for being that fast? Not to the level you'd want to see at his level. You are just kind of hoping things come together. That wouldn't be bad if he were 19 but he'll be 24 as the post-season closes and is not quite getting it done in High A.  Here's to miracles, I guess. 

Pretty good haul for not having anything to give away, and by that I mean you got two guys in Ronny Cruz and Sean Paul Liñan that have an outside chance to turn into good major leaguers and a guy in Christian Franklin with a decent chance to have more than a cup of coffee. Is the likely outcome nothing of import? Of course. But I'll take this. 

More importantly I'll take not trading Gore. Now spend in this off-season  

Trades Trades Trades

 I did go on vacation again, yes.  I also will again the second week in August. 

 The Nats have begun their sell-off and it's mostly gone exactly as you could hope 

 Chafin and Garcia and Soroka out. 

Chafin was found money, a DFA'd player who turned it around for the Nats and ended up part of a deal. Soroka didn't pan out exactly as planned but the fact he was sent out for anything means his signing was a win.  Luis Garcia is at least a decent arm with the potential to have a great couple months, but is 38 and not part of the future. 

This does gut a pitching staff that was put together with string and bubble gum but hey, you apes want to live 2025 forever?  

What's the returns?  From my take on best to worst

Ronny Cruz - the type of lottery ticket you want to get. decently high draft MI pick that's super young and has looked ok so far. Talent heavy but this is for Mike Soroka remember. 

Christian Franklin - reads like the type of player the Nats have avoided. IOW good baseball instincts. He's a smart runner, makes good reads in the outfield, has patience at the plate. If he could just hit a few more flyballs and get that average and power up he'd be a solid player. Alas at 25 that ship has likely sailed. But seems like a good guy to have around 

Jake Eder - a college starter that basically stalled out in AA after injuries that is being looked at now in the majors as a reliever. Not impressive so far but a live arm so whatever. 

Sam Brown - a first baseman/corner OF with no power or patience? organizational depth

 

MORE TRADES

Finnegan GONE! He's ok, but even the Nats knew he couldn't really be counted on. Will be missed in the continuing non-literal decimation* of the pen. Who's coming in in relief? Maybe you!

 Coming in is Josh Randall and RJ (not Randall Josh) Sales  

Josh Randall - live arm you take a gamble on. Just move to A+ and had a great start but while he strikes out a lot he's not unhittable. Arm seems dependable and strong. Kind of guy in a year you'll see if he can be a reliever. The better lottery ticket here. 

RJ Sales - competent college pitcher at 18. Hard to get a good read on as a hitter which really limits his hits and homers but doesn't miss enough bats and walks way too many. In A ball now at 22, looked better on the wildness overall but was slipping recently.  

 

What's next? 

 I wouldn't trade Gore. Not unless you want to set the timeline on (maybe) being good again at 2028.  The Nats can be good (wild card level) next year. They have an ace. They have a stud bat. They have a good 2nd bat. Pieces are there. What they need is investment, not starting over.  

 

*It's literally worse! 

What's coming

 The Nats season is over in the "compete for anything worthwhile" but it's far from over in the "kids development sense" we know about the kids that are here and doing well. What's coming down the pike? 

 

More time for kids here 

 

Brady House - looks like a talented kid up for the first time.  Strong swing, solid form but he's getting fooled a lot. Works out to about an average bat in his limited time. A little iffy in the field so far. If he can just slightly improve across the board that's a win because he's right now he's probably a just good enough player (think Luis Garcia) and you gotta figure they'll be a chance for a real step up in 2026. 

Dylan Crews - is still out though before the ASB, and after he had worked himself back to "when is he going to be playing games" figure sometime in the next week. That could be today, maybe this weekend. No rush. Fairly similar to House but his form at the plate isn't good which negates a lot of the strength in it. Chases a bit less though and is starting to warm up in the field.  The goal for the next couple months? Get the ball into the air more. 

Daylen Lile - can really ID and square up on pitches but slow bat speed and that has been the death of Ruiz.  Now Lile isn't Ruiz because he is fast.  There's a chance he could be Steven Kwan. There's a better chance he could be one of the dozens of guys who don't last though. Kwan is a unicorn. 

Andry Lara - The Nats pitching staff has a lot of "kids" A lot of guys like Cole Henry (26 on the ASG), Jose Ferrer (25), and Mitchell Parker (26 in September) who should be rounding into final form now (see : Gore, Mackenzie 26). Unfortunately for these guys and Lord (25), Rutledge (26), Brzykcy (25) instead they are still getting used to the majors and likely I'd say 5 out of 6 won't be any good. OK that was depressing but you know who IS a kid? Andry Lara. And he's looked good as a reliever in VERY VERY limited play. He gets hit but he induces grounders. Over time as a starter that's been iffy, you lose control you leave balls up... but for an inning as a reliever? So far, so good

 

Kids coming / coming back - 

Cade Cavalli - Has he looked good in AAA in 2025? Uh.... no. He's wild and not missing bats and well that's not a good combo. But he's going to get into the majors because at 27 in about a month it's time for him to produce or get out of the way. The Nats liked him before so they'll throw him into the fire. 

Robert Hassell - Does he seem like a AAA player? Yeah. But squint and you see a guy who struggles at a level, then gets better. He was pretty awful in the majors with nothing to excite you but his other skills are good so if he can be ok maybe there's a 4th or 5th OF here? His only issue is the OF is crowded. Harder to get a chance when Wood is needing reps to keep improving his D, and Crews needs to get back into it. (which is kind of why they gotta let Call go) 

 Marquis Grissom Jr.  - an intriguing relief arm that shouldn't be great (he doesn't blow anyone out at all) but is hard for batters to get a read on so they don't usually hit him very hard. Unfortunately Marquis doesn't have a great read on himself. When he controls his wildness has enough to hold down a major league role. We'll probably get a chance to see if he can do that in the fall

Yohandy Morales?  - Probably not as a DH/1B he's sort of squeezed currently in the majors, esp with all the OF needing to have a look. But he's in AAA and was beginning to heat up. If Bell goes then there's a spot open and he'll have his first swings in the majors. 

 

Various other not kids who might get cycled in based on timing. For starters - Seth Shuman, Chase Solesky, and Andrew Alvarez stink but are there in AAA. They probably get passed by Kyle Luckham though if he doesn't stink. Holden Powell is the closest to a kid in the pen. Konnor Pilkington is an interesting older lefty. Seems like a dozen could be late 20s guys. Batting there's a lot of chaff. Jackson Cluff maybe? Get the 28yo a couple major league at bats before sending him on his way?

What's gone wrong

Everything? 

Ha ha. No! Didn't you read the last post? There are some good and in the comments I mention the sort of neither good or bad (Garcia, Irvin, Parker, all the kids just getting their feet wet) 

But there are some bad things. You can't be 20 games under at the All-Star break on luck alone.  

 

Plan Ruiners

Keibert Ruiz had a hot start making optimistic Nats fans say "forget about the last few years! Maybe he was hurt!" Nope. He stinks! Always bad behind the plate, he hasn't gained power as he got older and he hasn't learned any patience. He's a slow slap hitter and has the stats to prove it. The Nats gambled on Ruiz after a decent couple of first seasons. They lost. And somehow back-up Riley Adams is worse as at least Ruiz's contact skills are something. Riley is just hoping to run into one and doesn't.

 Trevor Williams looked real good when healthy in 2024. I mean he was good! So the Nats signed him to a 2 year deal with the general thinking if he could be 80% of that by July they could flip him into something interesting. But 2024 looked like a fluke and 2025 proved it was. He's unmovable and signed for next year. The only bright side is there is a fair amount of luck here so him coming back next year to eat innings and pitch at the back of the rotation wouldn't be the worst. That's good! 

Reaching deeper into the FA garbage pile for Paul DeJong, Colin Poche, and Lucas Sims, Rizzo hoped to go beyond getting a deal into getting something for nothing. He got nothing for nothing as Poche and Sims were so bad they are already gone (and should have been earlier) and DeJong was only saved from the same fate by injury. No help for team or trades. 

Shinnosuke Ogasawara was supposed to be cheap rotation depth.  He hasn't shown an ability to hang in AAA let along the majors. At least if you burned the money you'd get some heat from it.  

 

Not what they hoped for  

Nathaniel Lowe was a cheap but sneaky good 1B who played good defense and hit well and the combo made him sort of a Top 10 1B (yeah 1B is historically weak - you still gotta play guys there!). But for the Nats in 2025 he's doing neither well and is basically the 1B this team should have. The good news is like Williams he'll be back and unlike with Williams, this year seems to be his fluke. So maybe next year. 

Jacob Young is an exciting and fast young fielder who had some exciting stretches at the plate last year. But in 2025 everything has gone wrong. He's hitting worse. He fielding worse. Hell, he's been caught stealing 9 times in 19 attempts. From possible starter to back to the minors.

Nasim Nunez was stashed on the major league roster all 2024 because you can do that if you are a bad team. All glove and no bat the hope was he could work his way to average at the plate and last year seemed to suggest that was possible. This year though he's hitting his way out of AAA.  

Jackson Rutledge, Zach Brzycky were two young names they were hoping to show something in the pen. Both have been bad. Edward Salazar, Ryan Loutos, and Jorge Lopez were all arms picked up with the hope something would click. It did not. 

 

In the macro 

While Parker and Irvin alone are basically hitting low expectations, together with Herz it was hoped one might continue to pitch like a middle of rotation guy. Nope. These two regressed and Herz got hurt.  

 

The short of this is the FA signings were pretty remarkably terrible this year. Not just missing but missing so bad with guys they were not getting out of AAA or being released before Memorial Day. This meant the team had no depth anywhere with the lineup, rotation, and pen all only 1-2-3 players deep. The Ruiz development is also really disappointing bc it's hard to find a good catcher, they actually committed to someone and it's just become a mess. At least the kids that didn't come through, weren't the kids you really care about. Some of the A-Team came through, the others are just getting their chances, the B-Team's failures are disappointing but they aren't long term issues, just issues for 2025 when you are mixing and matching what you have. 

 

What's gone right

With the team reeling there isn't much to say here but we generally start out with right so...   

Unqualified Successes

James Wood is a bonafide star. All-Star. HR Derby participant.  On pace for 40 homers, 100 RBIs, and 100 walks.  He strikes out a bit much and never developed the skills in the field you'd hope but at 22 he's one of the best bats in the game and likely to get even better. He's a build around player. 

MacKenzie Gore is an ace.  Maybe not a Skenes level but he'd be #1 on a number of teams.  He has matured and has figured out how to maintain a level of control that makes him that much better. A stud that you can build a rotation behind

Brad Lord made his way to the majors are looks to be a solid addition to the bullpen while Jose Ferrer has gotten over some early season bumps to also settle into a nice spot. Both at 25 and under control for years you can imagine them as pieces of a solid pen once the Nats commit to or find the couple shut down arms they need. 

Qualified Successes 

Kyle Finnegan has settled into that "he's the closer" role where he's not any better really than your other good relief arms but he has the job and does it well enough not to lose it. In the old days you could flip that for something but teams are smarter now. In the new days these guys are valuable because they let you use your truly good arms when you really need them. The Nats don't have truly good arms. So Kyle is really just another decent pen arm, which is fine, but circumstances mean it's not a big win. 

CJ Abrams' talent is getting more consistent.  Say what you will about his attitude (up and down apparently) and ability to play SS (only down) but he's a high energy electric player with 20+ HR power and the speed to steal 50+ bases if the Nats were so inclined. Also he's 24.  He's got a skill set you need to figure out how to control or flip for an arm.  

Alex Call continues to be a nice surprise. He's generally been a solid to good defender but the bat was a question.  While it's nothing to get excited about from a 30 year old who's not going to get better it's undeniably been good. He's a solid player you got for nothing and that's always a plus 

 Amed Rosario didn't suck, he was ok. He's sort of the bench guy good teams have, able to play a lot of positions (though not well) and hit fine. A good sub to have when a guy goes out for a couple weeks. Unfortunately that's not the team the Nats are but that's not Rosario's fault. 

Squint and you can see success

Mike Soroka was a gamble. When healthy he's perfectly decent holding down a back of the rotation spot.  It's a low bar but it's probably the first one you set out for this signing. 

 

Without an injury the Nats can walk out of 2026 with a build around bat an ace-level pitcher. Every team would want that. They've managed to check off some of the top 2 boxes in the checklist. The problem is the next 10 or so. 

Monday Quickie : ASG break

The Nats did not get better after the firings. The 1-5 run isn't anything off than expected, facing two good teams away from home 2-4 is the baseline with 1-5 and 3-3 happening almost as easy. This is not a good team, and it's still being run by Davey's guys so don't expect any miracles. 

The big thing that happened was the draft. I don't usually care much about the draft, but in the past the Nats having the #1 pick with generational talents has made me take a closer look at it. That was a long time ago. The Nats had the #1 pick again this year but with no clear Strasburg or Harper it was a big question mark on who to take.  Guys ranked by one group as #1 might be #7 elsewhere. 

The Nats went with Eli Willitis, son of a former major leaguer. He's a guy with no holes in his make-up and seems destined to make the majors, with the general thinking is a good bet to be a very solid top of the line-up type player. If things don't pan out then he might be a super-sub type, where as if he surprises he could be a star.  It's a "safe"* pick in a draft like this that featured no wow player. With the Nats eschewing from pitching it seemed like the other choice could have been Ethan Holliday (another major league scion) who had more top-end potential but also potential holes like a lack of projectible defensive skills and a tendency to swing and miss. 

Holliday seems like a Rizzo pick to me. Rizzo liked to take big swings in the draft, be it with raw talent (Brady House, Elijah Green), or injury concerns (Rendon, Giolito, Fedde)  or what have you. I never felt like this was a terrible idea. You only need to hit once every 5+ years to really impact your team. But it did leave the minors usually barren of the type of decent players that making more standard picks run into. And when he didn't hit that post-Rendon guy the Nats ended up with a organization with limited depth. That they went with Willitis feels like a change even if it was Rizzo's guy originally.  We will likely never know. 

This team needs this break to reset completely and figure out who they are. They should spend the next few weeks dumping guys with no future here (Finnegan, Bell, Williams, Call - won't get more than you can now, Rosario - ditto), either through lottery ticket trades or DFAs. Then just let the kids play. Then attack FA and the trade market in the off-season. 2025 has long been over. A competitive 2026 is the goal now. 

 

 

*as safe as any draft pick can be, mind you.  

Monday Not-Quickie : Firing on all cylinders

What's next? 

1) New guys take over... for now. 

Mike DeBartolo is the new GM.  He's young, with a business bent. He's been with the Nats a long time with a role in a lot of different aspects and he's familiar with analytics. Still I imagine with no baseball leadership experience and his history being the second guy on a team who just fired it's GM I assume he's a placeholder. 

Miguel Cairo, bench coach, is the likely choice for interim manager. 

What is on DeBartolo's plate is the draft. He's likely to have been involved and with the first pick the Nats have a pretty decent sense of the 1-3 guys they are looking at. The later rounds have never been good to Rizzo so DeBartolo can't do worse. 

Miguel's got to rally the team but after Davey's "don't blame the coaches" rant that may be easier done. Also compared to the effort they've put out so far even winning 3 out of every 7 would be an improvement. 

Don't expect a new coach in before the end of the year. There isn't really a point. But I'd like to see a new GM in as soon as possible. The draft might be a pass for them. The big focus is on early rounds and your position in the draft and your minor league system means a lot when you make those picks. Any other guy is looking at a different set of players than Rizzo would have been. But I do want the next GM to be here for the trade deadline to begin making the team his.  

Who would I like to take over? Assuming this team is going to be run cheap - you want someone from an org that understands how to win with limitations, Tampa, Cleveland, Milwaukee...

For manager?  If we're going with my heart, let Matty LeCroy take it.  I love that guy.   Also a heart choice but with more thought into it, Rick Sweet is a LONG time minor league manager with seemingly decent skills at mentoring young players.  Let him have his one shot at the majors with a bunch of kids that can make some noise. 

Hey if my "get Rick Short" out of the minors push worked 20 years ago, maybe it can work for all "Rick" five-letter last names that start with S and end with t? 

2)  Fallout.  

Rizzo hinted at some bad blood, probably wants one more shot, and we all think the ownership isn't... at it's best. What sort of hit jobs do we see on the Lerners, or on Rizzo the untouchable king, or on Davey no longer in a position of power? 

Also why now? Why both? What was the process? That usually does come out one way or another.  If you like drama we might see some

3) Does anything else change? 

Ownership could also be ready for a change. With Rizzo and Davey out that's a clean slate for a buyer and we know the Lerners broached selling the team earlier. Could they be up for doing it again? We generally think Mark wants to stay, the siblings and their hubbies want to sell, and no strong decisions can be made unless everyone agrees. If this is all true that's no way to run a franchise, one hamstrung sibling trying to hobble along. You can feel sorry for Mark in this situation a little bit, but by holding on to the team he's making things worse for it.  If you can't put money into it NOW you got to sell 

EMERGENCY FIRING POST 2

You all know how I feel.  Davey deserved to get fired as much as any manager who won a WS has, at least on performance.  His teams regularly underperformed expectations, including this year, and they regularly failed at the fundamentals, or at least it felt like it.  I won't rehash it anymore. You can go back and read what I said a few posts ago.  I think it's best for the Nats he's gone. 

Rizzo is more complicated.  As others have pointed out, Rizzo has a skill set; a steady hand, decent media presence (mainly because it's limited), a good read of other teams young talent, a savvy trader.  He also has some flaws; poor draft record, questionable FA eye on the fringes, a bit "my way or the highway" attitude with little sense of taking blame for team failures. It's a mixed bag, but one that lead to a 7-10 season run of relevance and a season in 2025 where three of the hottest young players all reside on his team. You can not like him, you can say his skill set doesn't quite work for the way this team might be run going forward, but you can't say he's bad.  

But even his quote suggests - "Hey not my fault" which it certainly partly is.  We mentioned the swings and misses in the drafts, allowing Davey and his calvacade of subpar coaches to stay here as long as they did, this year's decision to get a full house of other people's trash and missing on them so very badly that three relievers were gone before Memorial Day. If he really can't see that - he has to go. 

Usually ownership groups give GMs the chance to move on from managers before forcing them out. That Rizzo was gone too is interesting.  Did Rizzo ride or die with Davey?  He seemed to really like him and work well with him. 

What happens next will be everything because this is a team with some great young pieces that needs to spend in the off-season. If they do the person making those decisions will be of paramount importance and the person leading the team will matter too.  

EMERGENCY FIRING POST

DAVEY OUT! 

RIZZO OUT!

The Post if you have it

What was the final straw? You'd have to assume the lifeless play in the past month+  9-23 since the end of May.  The team looks bad. The feeling around the team is bad. 

More tomorrow later tonight.  Too much to wait until tomorrow but you know I got kids stuff to do right now

Ed Note- internet down and my cell reception at my house is spotty so nothing more tonight  

Ed Note 2 - It's back! 

went on vacation

Like the Nats in general  

 They are now nearly what I feared they'd be last post.  Worst of the rest. Only the Athletics are standing in their way.  They are clearly behind the Marlins now. Hell so are the Braves. 

Things have gotten so bad the team is trying to get you excited for the idea of Paul DeJong coming back and DHing even though he can't hit. 

What the hell are we doing here people? 

 

Kick anyone over 27 to the curb.  Just play kids.  See where you end up. Spend a bunch of money in the off-season. That's where we are.  

 

 

Monday Quickie - closing in

 on the worst "trying" team in baseball

The Rockies, despite sweeping the Nats, are historically bad.  They are on pace for 37 wins.  There literally should be calls from the game to replace the owner because things are so non-competitive in Denver. 

The White Sox are in a similar spot, Reinsdorf aging into a worse version of himself as owner often do stuck with a "back in my day we didn't pay players so much" mentality, trying to squeeze every last dollar from the team for years leading to another terrible team in 2025. This is a cycle and this year the WHite Sox are the one at the nadir, on the path for the low 50s in wins. However, they are finally in the process of being sold

The other teams down here are of a similar bent. The Pirates, Athletics, and Marlins are all infamous for not really trying. Instead trying to be "Tampa Bay Lite" investing in the minors enough to hope to cobble together a decent 1-2 year squad that pushes .500 and a Wild Card a couple times a decade.  Maybe every couple decades have things line up right for a brief window of actual contention.  The Orioles, recently sold, look to be adding their name to this list, squandering a decent base of youth. And the Royals probably belong in this group, but are having that cobbled together squad couple years that we just talked about.  (I do think they push a bit more than the others when things line up) 

So it's down here, with the likes of these teams that the Nats sit. And its not because of a run of terrible luck (Hey Braves!) or a that this is the low point in a rebuilding process, that was a couple years ago. No it's earned and deserved. The Nats are a team with all the hallmarks of not trying. It is what we noted going into this year. This was the year to start trying. They did not. That's a warning sign. 

Luckily for the Nats fans they don't have a history of doing this. So maybe it's not actually happening. Maybe the Nats aren't becoming a team like those noted above.  Maybe it's just a one year blip, trying to get timing right. Maybe. 

 But it's hard to get hopes up when you know at least part of the ownership group wants out. And it's hard to get hopes up when having the 3rd lowest winning percentage of all active managers while constantly throwing your team under the bus, can't get a manager fired. And it's hard when you have a guy turning into an ace and a budding superstar on your team and you don't hear a peep about long-term signings. 

 I still say it's a low-mid 70s win team, I still say they catch a run. I still say hold out hope for this off-season.  What can I say, I'm an eternal optimist. But I don't blame you if you don't.