Dunn signs with the White Sox 4 years - 56 million. A few stray Friday thoughts
That is more than I thought he'd get (I figured closer to 4 /50) but it's not a terrible overpay. Dunn was a 15 million dollar player last year, he's remarkably consistent, and extremely healthy. While he should decline during these next years as most players do, I don't see a harsh decline. Factor in the increases in payroll we seem to be shifting back toward, and I think 4/56 is pretty spot on.
Raise a glass to Kenny Williams who once again builds a winning team by paying top dollar for B/B+ talent. Most MLB teams are obsessed with a "Pay for the A talent, bargain everything else" line of thinking (some not even "pay for the A talent") leaving an exploitable gap for good to very good players if you are willing to throw away draft picks. Kenny is just the man to exploit that gap. Losing draft picks may seem like a bad idea but if you are going to be able to spend money consistently, draft picks aren't something you need to hoard.
Contracts do seem to be higher this year than in the recent past. Commenter Wally yesterday had Pena at maybe 2 /18. I think that's possible. I also think it won't deter Rizzo. As long as he can get 2 years, I think he'd bite.
You have to think that the White Sox offer was at least floated during the arbitration period, right? I mean there is no reason for it not to be and if you wanted Dunn and were afraid he would go back to the Nationals, you'd want him to know about it. But if that's the case then why did Dunn wait till the last minute to decline arbitration? One thing I can think of is that he was really hoping the Nats would come back with a 4 year offer.
Before you get all worried about the Hot Stove so far remember outside of an interest in De La Rosa (and perhaps a passing one in Vazquez) no one is off the table who the Nats actually wanted back. If you trust Rizzo, nothing's happened yet that should change that opinion.
It wouldn't surprise me at all if ZNN, Norris and Desmond aren't Nationals by the end of the year and they might all be going to the same place. The Nats don't want to (and shouldn't) deal Strasburg or Bryce so they are going to have to dole out multiple next level prospects to get anything of value back.