Nationals Baseball: Monday Quickie - BRAVES SERIES!

Monday, August 20, 2012

Monday Quickie - BRAVES SERIES!

Well the Nats got the game on the Braves I expected them to, although not in the way I thought it would happen.  The Nats did indeed lose that 2nd game, but Atlanta, like Atlanta is wont to do, found itself unable to win important games and lost a series at home to the Dodgers. This to me is the "real" Atlanta.  While they have been hot in the past month - they've also played the Marlins twice, the Phillies twice, the Mets and the Padres. In other words, no real competition. Put a decent team in front of them and, well, you saw what happened.

I'm not just whistling "Nuts about the Nats" here.  The Braves are 11-20 against the Top 5 teams in the NL that aren't them, including a 5-13 record versus the two teams that have set themselves apart from the rest of the pack, Cincinnati (1-5) and Washington (4-8).  With no ability to rise to the occasion I strongly believe that the Nats will take the series. If the Nats do take the series - that puts the Nats up 6 games with 38 to play, and extremely close to having CNN call the NL East for the Red side. But because this may be the only important series the Nats play until October, let's take the time to break this down game by game.

GAME 1

Hudson
Hudson has been up and down lately. Sandwich between good, but not impressive, shutouts of Houston and San Diego, Tim got rocked by Philadelphia. This is basically Hudson in a nutshell.  He's not a strike-out pitcher so WOW performances are few and far between.  What he does do is keep the ball down, doesn't get hit, doesn't give up walks and doesn't give up homers.  While you probably will score 2-3 runs a game, he makes you work for them.  Bad hitting teams just can't do it. Good hitting teams can.

Against the Nats he's actually been ok, if you can ignore the first inning.  In Game 1 (May 25th) he gave up a string of hits in the first leading to four runs for the Nats then shut them down until the 7th.  In Game 2 (Jul 1st) the same thing happened; 4 hits, a couple of deep flyballs and an error and the Braves were quickly in a 4 run hole.  He'd give up more runs in both games but those were incidental.  In fact Game 1 highlights why I think the Braves are going to lose.

Meet Fredi Gonzalez. After getting a quick two outs in the 7th Hudson walked Wang, then gave up a double to Lombo. At this point you have to think strongly about taking him out.  Bryce was up and one hit would end this game. A smart manager would have cut bait with Hudson and brought in a lefty to get that one out. Fredi, though, decided to stick with Hudson against the lefty Bryce. He promptly walked Bryce. Given another chance to take out Hudson, who doesn't walk people and just walked two of the last three including a pitcher who spent his career in the AL, Fredi decided to stick with his man for one more batter. In to face Zimmerman. Double. Ball game.

Zimmermann
Zimmermann has also been a little off his game lately.  He has a shutout vs Houston (I sense a pattern Astros!) but around that has had his two worst outings since May.  Against the Giants, some Lannan-esque luck kept 8 hits and 2 walks in 5 2/3rds from being any more than 2 runs.  Against Miami , there was no such luck and ZNN gave up 4 ER in 5 innings. ZNN is a lot like Hudson only better. Walks are lower, strikeouts a touch better.  ZNN's only vice is giving up the long ball, but he's only given up one since late June (to a red hot David Wright if you must know).  Tonight will be a good test to see if ZNN is ready to hold down that "best pitcher in the NL" spot, or will revert to the Top 20 type position he held in the first half.

Amazingly enough Zimmermann has not faced the Braves this year. No point in looking at info even a year old.

Atlanta Offense

Atlanta had been super hot but were cooled off by the Dodgers, scoring only 6 runs during the series and getting shutout yesterday. In the past week the lineup has been split with a huge chasm between good and bad.  Great : Chipper (.375 / .444 / 1.063!), Heyward.  Good : Bourn, Janish, Uggla, Prado.  Prado has an OPS the past week of .804.  The next best Brave has an OPS of .400.  Among the dregs are Freddie Freeman (.091 / .200 / .091) and Brian McCann (.000 / .200 / .000) who anchor that lineup. Again though this includes the Padres series in which the Braves had 29 hits in the last 3 games. They have 8 in the last two vs the Dodgers, and only 3 yesterday.  We'll see tonight if they have gone cold or it was just some nice pitching by the Dodgers (entirely possible)

Washington Offense

The Nationals have continued on with their more potent offense but have done it in an odd fashion. Their run distribution has been all over the place.  14, 6, 6, 5, 1, 0 runs in the past 6 games. It's a bit like the little girl with the curl here. While they are feasting on bad pitchers in a way no Nats team has done maybe ever, a decent pitcher on his game can shut down the Nats as easy as any other team. Danny and Bryce recently, (finally) have been hot.  Werth has also been good. Morse and Zimmerman have been fine.  While LaRoche, the catcher spot, and Ian Desmond have been ice cold. That's a normal mix.


Game Guess  

Hudson's been normal, the Nats offense has been normal so on that side of the game, I'd expect normal.  A few runs early by the Nats followed by a nice long effective outing from Hudson. Something in the neighborhood of 4 runs over 7.  What it'll come down to then is which of the formerly red hot entities are really cooling down.  Is Atlanta's offense about to enter one of those stretches where runs seem impossible to come by, or is Jordan Zimmermann about to enter a rough patch?  My guess would be the ATL offense will come in trying to hard to score and that'll help ZNN get around the fact he's not at his best. He'll outpitch Hudson. Fredi won't use his best guys (I'm down by 2!) so the Nats will have an opportunity to tack on a few more before Clippard comes in and slowly shuts the door, probably letting a run in first.

I'll say Nats 6-3.

91 comments:

calindc said...

2 out of 3 either way will be a huge advantage for the Nats, Atlanta has to be looking for the sweep.

Harper said...

Sweep Nats : NL Pennant (sorry - "game by game"rs)
Series Nats : Comfortably playing out string to next series that may not even matter
Series Braves : Status quo. Nats play with the occasional glance over their shoulders.
Sweep Braves : Until the Nats can build a 3+ game lead, every game takes on utmost importance.

Harper said...

Obviously I mean NL East Pennant

Anonymous said...

Two more wins against ATL this season also gives us the season series. Correct me if I'm wrong, but that means the Nats win the NL East if both times tie as long as the Braves would then have the wild card. (There is only a play in game if only 1 team would make the postseason.)

WiredHK said...

It's odd that a guy who seems to live on stats and facts seems to be going with a 2-1 Nats series win primarily on the theory that isn't much more than "The Braves choke when the chips are in the middle." Hehehe. Personally, I'd feel better if we had flipped ZNN and Gio so we got two lefties in vs their lefty dominated lineup. At least ZNN and Stras should be tough on their best hitter and, in my view, the guy that makes their whole offense go -- Prado.

Each of these games has no clear edge, to me, for either side. And since home field advantage isn't much more than a few umpire calls in favor of the home team (see: Scorecasting), I'm inclined to factor it out as well.

So flip a coin...all three of these could seriously go either way. I think the likely result is Braves take 2 of 3 based on a split in games 1 and 2, and a Medlen edge on Det in game 3. But who knows. Wait...so maybe the Braves a chokers is the deciding edge! :)

eatthelump said...

Getting to play ATL, LAD,and STL down the stretch run means we control our own destiny. That is all any of us could have asked for at the beginning of the year. I am so excited to see meaningful baseball in the second half! Contrast this with most Yankee fans who don't even start watching their team until the postseason starts :)

ags said...

Mmm... Clippard.

Donald said...

I still can't help looking back to the 9-1 blown lead and thinking that if we had won that game, we'd have a 7 game lead and the pennant might already be called. Oh well. Spilt milk and all.

I think ZNN will pitch well tonight having that extra day of rest. The crowd should help as well. I predict a big game for Bryce since he seems to be edging out of his slump. I'm gonna call it for the Nats in a 4-1 win.

Harper said...

Anon - yes. If both teams make the playoffs head2head will be used to seed the Nats and Braves first.

WiredHK - well I'd really say two games for the Nats because they are better than the Braves and playing at home. This is a series they should win 2 games. They've done what they should all year long.

eatthelump - You're just angry cause you don't have postseason vets like Posada and Rivera leading the Nats into the playoffs!

donald - sure I can find a game that swings the other way. It is what it is.

calindc said...

Wow, they found Posada? I thought he was hiding in the ivy with Andre Dawson.

Anonymous said...

"Danny ... recently, (finally) has been hot."

Recently? You're a bit late to the party chief, he's been red hot since the beginning of July. Glad to see you've finally acknowledged it though, especially after calling for his head early in the season when he was struggling.

I'll add him to list of people you owe apologies.


And to WiredHK: "Each of these games has no clear edge, to me, for either side."

What? You may be an idiot, I think you should get checked out. The starters for the Braves the next 2 games are Paul Maholm and Kris Medlen. Those guys wouldn't even crack our rotation. We're favorites to win every game, especially games 2 and 3.

"I think the likely result is Braves take 2 of 3 based on a split in games 1 and 2, and a Medlen edge on Det in game 3."

Again, what the fuck are you talking about? Strasburg = Paul Maholm now? Do you follow baseball at all?

calindc said...

Way to cross the line, dude.

cass said...

WiredHK:

I think what Harper was saying was that the Braves can beat bad teams but fare pooorly against good teams. That's not choking under pressure as much as having their waeknesses exposed by good teams, I think.

I'm not sure what will happen, myself. Don't see any need to make predictions. Just looking forward to these very important games. Got my tickets for Tuesday.

WiredHK said...

Anon - Nice post. Of course, you didn't bother to back it with anything insightful, but that's as usual. You may be the very worst sort of homer, but you have a right to your opinion. I guess Vegas doesn't watch baseball at all either. The line tonight has the Nats as a mild favorite. Let's watch the lines on the next two (Hint: we will be mild faves in the first two and a mild dog in the last one).

But let me ask, what about Detwiler is so much better than Medlen? Let me give you the actual statistics to back my feelings on these being tight matchups:

Hudson - 3.59 ERA/1.19 WHIP/.241 BAA
ZNN - 2.38/1.09 WHIP/.243 BAA

*ZNN should be a decent fave, but it's hardly a landslide and you'd be shocked if we lost?

Maholm - 3.39 ERA/1.17 WHIP/.244 BAA
Stras - 2.91 ERA/1.13 WHIP/.225 BAA

*Again, Stras favored but is it a landslide?

Medlen - 2.03 ERA/1.03 WHIP/.226 BAA
Det - 3.25 ERA/1.16 WHIP/.237 BAA

*Obvious edge to Medlen, who has also been exceptional since being placed in a starting role.

Nats should win 2 of 3, but I could easily see us dropping one of those early games, thus my instincts. Is that worth personal attacks? Sheesh.

Your act is as tired as it is pathetic. You offer very little in the way of tangible, and a lot in the way of insults. Low class, as usual. Good work.

And, do I watch baseball? Nah. I don't have Nats season tickets, nor do I watch every single game on TV when not in the stands. You got me.

Natsphan said...

Ignore the anonymous troll Harper. This individual has been here all season probably hitting "refresh" over and over again somewhere in his parents basement so he can go against whatever you're saying. Keep up the good work and good analysis.

Anonymous said...

I'll be there tonight (guy in the Nats jersey, front row of 104, catching that Morse HR when he finally pulls a ball out) and expect a victory for ZNN in a low-scoring game. I'm expecting the series win, but I think it's more likely the Nats sweep than either Braves option.

Chaos......and the number is 36

Froggy said...

What I like about this blog is a couple of things:

1) Harper is not a Kool-Aid making / drinking Nats fan so he keeps us honest.

2) It appears as though there are a rather small group of regular commenters (to include a couple anonymouses) and so far we have avoided a lot of Maryland trailer park living Pseudo-Philly Phan language, and ad hominem attacks except from one of the anonymi. Knuckleheads like that anonymous are what they are (you know who you are). So pick a handle and join the conversation in a civil manner, and feel free to disagree. Nuff said.

I think we take 2 of 3 as Medlin is pitching really well of late, and Kimbrel has been ridiculous.

Harper said...

Anon - that's editing worthy of a political add. I was obviously saying that Bryce recently got hot, not Danny. I also never called for his head. There might be a "what's up with Danny" column out there but I basically said nothing about him because I had faith he'd bounce back. (and said as much several times)

Anon/WiredHK - Maholm is no Strasburg but when I first looked at his stats post-trade I was surprised how good he has been this year. Everything is trending right - he can't just be dismissed.

cass - I don't know. By all accounts they shouldn't be THAT bad vs the good teams so there could be choking though that's admittedly backed by nothing I'm fine with arguments being made with no basis in reality, just as long as we all admit that's whats happening.

WiredHK - Also if you can like the Nats heavily in the first two but unless you just expect domination, a split is the most likely outcome. That's just what happens when two good teams play eachother.

Natsphan - thanks

Chaos - I'd like to think not but Braves winning 2 probably does out pace a Nats sweep.

Froggy - Kimbrels been great all year long but the only team that has a ER off him since late June is the Nats

Anonymous said...

Wow Harper, you actually sounded like a Nats fan today. Im speechless, Im' without speech.

Anonymous said...

Its funny Atlanta since the AS break has only played 3 series against teams with a winning record. They lost 2 0f 3 to the Giants and Dodgers in Atlanta and split the 4 game series vs. the Nats. So they have really beat up on below 500. teams and just been average against teams over 500.

Anonymous said...

Nats will easily take 2, likely sweep, you people are stupid. I'll be right again, and then you'll all pretend I wasn't. The Braves rotation is horrible and there is not one pitcher on their staff that would even make ours.


Let me educate you rejects:

Zimmermann has been the best pitcher in the NL this season, so we obviously have an edge in this game tonight, especially against Has-been Hudson.

We have been a favorite EVERY SINGLE Strasburg start this season, no matter what the match-up was. If you don't think he's better than some reject from the Pirates then you don't know anything about the game.

Medlen beat the Padres, eh Mets, the Marlins, and the Astros. Wow, the 4 worst teams in the NL? Congratulations! What a feat! Detwiler would be the ace on the Braves, no doubt, easy win.

You are a moron.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous posting @ 1:26 has some emotional distress because his parents didn't love him enough. His rage filled rant expresses an opinion based entirely on the fact that the Nats have better pitching than the Braves. Of course they do, the Nats have the best pitching in MLB. Thanks for the expert analysis, we all are so much better off having had you grace us with your post.

Ben said...

Oh man, Anon-Troll is really foaming at the mouth today ... is this the same anon-troll who said Morse never strikes out on pitches outside the zone? Or that Mike Aviles is a top ten SS? If so, I really admire the consistency of your, uhh, "analysis". In honor of such I think you deserve a better pseudonym than "anon-troll" ... hmmm, perhaps you can sign your posts as baseball's most famous know-nothing, that's right, Tim McCarver! That way every reader can make sure to give your posts the proper amount of respect.

On topic, I think ZNN and timmy both bring their A game tonight with both team's bats a little tight playing in the highest pressure games of the year so far. I'm gonna go with 3-1 Nats with all the runs being scored after the 4th.

Ben said...

wooo I'm wrong and I love it! by tight bats I must have meant tiiiiight bats

Froggy said...

To ranting @anonymous: I thought I was talking to an adult...

...my bad.

eatthelump said...

I stand by my earlier comment, Harper...rooting for the Yankees is about the same as rooting for the Harlem Globetrotters. Although as far as Yankee fans go, you're one of the "good ones". Thoroughly enjoy the blog...keep up the good work!

blovy8 said...

Pretty good job on that Hudson pitching line, Harper, although he only pitched 6.

WiredHK said...

Fredi tried to blow it last night, too, so -- spot on there, Harper. I was surprised he stuck with Hudson in the 6th after the ALR single and Desi walk. He didn't throw a single strike to Danny, but DE let him off the hook by waving at some bad pitches. Likewise, to open the 7th, no chance Hudson should have been allowed to start the frame vs the top of our order. Unfortunately, we weren't able to get the big SAC fly once we got Werth to third (very nice job by Bryce on that bunt, though).

In the end, 14 pitchers (combined), 4 1/2 hours, and plenty of chances for both teams to win, was settled by...good hustle by Danny (taking third on Suzuki's chopper) and a Brave choking! Full circle. I love it. :)

Harper said...

Anon #1 - it'll happen by accident sometimes.

Anon #2 - yep. It's not like the Nats have played world beaters either but the Braves have capitalized on the cake walk part of their schedule. Which is not to belittle them - that's what good teams do.

Anon #3 - Most everyone, including myself, think the Nats will win the series thanks to superior pitching. I'd say more Nats fans would predict a sweep over a Braves series win, so you aren't in the minority here.

Anon #4 / Ben / Froggy - some people are just contrarian by nature and would rather argue than discuss. Let's Buck O'Neill this one - Hopefully getting out this aggression to strangers on a board about what is essentially a very serious hobby helps him be a nicer person in the "real" world.

eatthelump - Thanks and if the choice is rooting for the Globetrotter or the Generals I think you'd be a attention seeking fool to root for the Generals.

eatthelump said...

Harper, good thing that wasn't the choice then... though for awhile there it may have SEEMED like rooting for the Expos/Nationals was akin to rooting for the Generals. Every ounce of pleasure is purchased with a pound of pain... unless you root for NYY.

Is attention seeking fool << front-running automaton? You'd have to be pretty old to have had to suffer through any "bad" Yankee teams.

My biggest hope and fear is the Nats play the Yanks in the WS someday. That would be pretty high stakes poker... either set for my baseball lifetime (baseball fans should not "expect" WS wins) or my fandom completely bankrupted by the Evil Empire.





Harper said...

eatthelump - In my age group (30-40) you basically missed the Yankees WS of the late 70s and had to suffer as the Yankees went from not good enough to terrible (2nd worst team in the majors in 1990) to ok again before breaking through. I'd say this age group of Yankee fans actually had a fairly atypical childhood for the time period given the amount of teams that made the playoffs from 82-93, something like 22 of 28 teams - no Yankees. 19 different teams made it from 82-89.

Of course everything since then makes the above moot.

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