Nationals Baseball: Such pretty birds in that bush

Thursday, December 20, 2012

Such pretty birds in that bush

Three years for Adam LaRoche is not a lot. It's only a year more than you'd probably want for the guy, but in the past that wouldn't have stopped anyone from signing him. Even in the fancy stat era someone, oh I don't know, let's say Texas, would have said "Every success window is limited and ours may be passing by.  We lost our best hitter and a very good hitting catcher, which is harder to replace. We're going to be in a dogfight with the Angels and A's.  We can't afford to lose out on the playoffs by a game or two again and the blah fielding, mediocre hitting Mitch Moreland is about a game or two worse than Adam LaRoche. Let's bite the bullet and sign him" 

But they aren't saying that and a lot of people are saying it's because of the draft pick lost. The Nats offered Adam arbitration.  Adam is a top notch Type A player. If he signs elsewhere the Nats will get a first (or 2nd depending) round draft pick. And currently teams are terribly terribly overvaluing draft picks.

Seriously go look at some of the draft classes.  2004. 2005. 2006. 2007. 2008.  Look at the last 10 picks of the first round and the supplementals. What do you see? A hell of a lot more names you never heard of and never-wases than actual quality major leaguers.  Yet teams are now delusional, desperately holding onto long-odd chances of striking it rich instead of signing players that might help them, like a person holding 10 lottery tickets refusing to take $50 for them.

That's not to say this strategy is complete nonsense.  Take a look at the Nats. They among the most degenerate of these gamblers. Last year's draft was basically a high-schooler with a ruined elbow and minor league seat fillers. But the Nats can afford to do this right now. They have a team set up for success for the forseeable future. Like a venture capitalist flush with money, they can throw 10 million at something hoping it becomes the next big thing. If it fails, so what they still have a ton of money. They can't do this forever though, so it'll be interesting to see if in 2015/6, if the Nats haven't won anything yet, if the team is still in this mode. Then there is the flipside, 10 or so teams nowhere near competing that need a huge break to get competitive again. The right draft success can help immensely in that. Would you still be thinking the Nats are prohibitive World Series favorites if instead of Strasburg and Bryce they had Dustin Ackley and Drew Pomeranz? Not bad players but not game changers. So while it's nice to have a guy like LaRoche on the team, he's not going to make a big enough difference to justify taking away that lottery ticket when that's kind of your only chance of success.

But the 10-15 middle ground teams, all fighting for playoff spots in this new 2nd WC major leagues, what's their excuse? There really isn't any. For them it can't be about the prospect of future success lost so it comes down to a far simpler reason, one we all recognize well.  The prospect of future money spent.  Draft picks are cheaper.  Much much cheaper. So you don't sign good players and you hope to draft well. You squander legit chances at playoffs for future dynasties that may never come but dammit will be a lot cheaper if they do!

This is probably just a phase.  Things are cyclic and what's overvalued today might be undervalued tomorrow. But even if it is, it's killing LaRoche's chances of signing that 3 year deal he wants.

56 comments:

BlueLoneWolf said...

Less people offer him three years and try and sway him away, the more signing here and staying put looks decent. Not rocket science, and he wants to stay here anyhow, supposedly.
Two years with a third that's a mutual option? Maybe grease up the first two years a little?

Doerr said...

I wonder if the overvaluing of draft picks is the vast majority of teams looking at the way that payrolls are heading. Teams like Texas have what would have been huge amounts of money (still is, but relatively speaking) and in the past would have been able to sign anyone they like. Now, with the two LA teams throwing money out there like they are and NY and Boston still having the potential of spending big bucks, it doesn't look as rosy for the Texases of the world. Nats should be getting a new tv deal in the next few years which will help bump the Nats closer to the head of the class for money in the bank. All of this could leave others teams looking at their major piles of cash and see that, subjectively, it isn't all that much and they won't be able to win a bidding war against a fair amount of teams in the present and future. So, trying to hit a homerun in the draft is looking like a better business decision than it has in the past???

Harper said...

BLW - one of the things about LaRoche is that outside of Texas there was not really a place for him and Texas is being stupid. Seattle is an also ran, Boston is not looking to be competitive (hopes to fall into it), the Orioles would be better off assuming they won't be good either (though it's not hopeless). So Pittsburgh maybe? In terms of trying to sneak into that last WC.... most of the middle has their first baseman.

notBobby - I think it'll be this way for a couple years. It's less about the teams that are throwing $$ around as much as the system is now keeping you from making up for missing 1st rounders by paying alot for late round reaches. You lose your high picks you lose your best picks by far.

Thing is relying on the draft has ALWAYS been the best business decision in terms of making money. It's just that in terms of winning you really had to spend because the spots available were limited. In a way you were forced to choose one or the other. Now with a second WC means teams CAN sneak in just being good, so that drops the marginal value of each win above the playoff threshold. You don't need to choose, you can go for the draft and hope to get kinda lucky.

cass said...

I assume you must know this already, but your article made it sound otherwise.

The last bargaining agreement changed the rules for free agent compesnation. There are no more type A's and type B's. It's simpler now. If you offer an average salary for one year (currently $13 million), then the team who signs the Free agent loses their first or second round pick and the team losing the player gains a sandwich pick. between the 1st and second rounds.

I also think it'd be good to bring up Edwin Jackson, who is getting a huge 4 year, $52 million deal. He did not get a qualifying offer, but LaRoche did. I think this makes a bit difference in the offers they've received from other teams.

michael k said...

Harper, why do you think Jackson wasn't given a qualifying offer? It would appear that he either wouldn't accept it or would be tradeable after accepting, considering the contract he just signed. Do you think Rizzo just didn't think there was that much interest in him? Or was there a gentleman's agreement that he wouldn't qualify Jackson in order to get him to sign a one year deal?

Anonymous said...

Three years for LaRoche at more than $13 million each is too much when you have Morse and Moore on the bench. The Nats should not resign LaRoche, and they should trade Morse for some prospects, leaving Moosre to take over first. I bet that if all three of them are regulars during 2013 that Moore will put up the best numbers.

Harper said...

cass - yeah sorry shouldn't have called him a Type A player, it's different enough from those rules (where you'd get their actual pick not a supplemental) to make that distinction.

cass / michael k - It's easy to say Rizzo misjudged the interest BUT the interest seems a lot higher because he wasn't given a qualifying offer. I think it was just a thought process on who would you like to keep for one year at that price. They would do it for Adam. They didn't want to for Edwin.

Anon - We won't see that happen but I'd totally take that bet.

DezoPenguin said...

I wonder if Toronto would be a good fit for LaRoche? They're clearly in "win now" mode, have been willing to spend money and prospects this offseason, and have a definite need at 1B with the perpetually disappointing Adam Lind currently ensconced there.

The nice thing about the Nats' situation is that they'd be a better team with LaRoche over Morse (due to the defense, since you have to expect some regression with the bat towards LaRoche's career numbers), but not better enough that they need to take a bad contract.

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