Nationals Baseball: You can't just say things - FOOTBALL TALK

Friday, January 11, 2013

You can't just say things - FOOTBALL TALK

Sorry I couldn't ignore what has to be one of the most blatant - I'm just saying something without even concerning myself it it's true or not - things I've read in a long while.

This jabroni over at SI penned a little thing saying that the Patriots might be better suited to win a championship this year because they have a good running back.  He notes that the Patriots have only been Top 5 in rushing attempts once since 2005 while passing a ton more (even though they've been sitting on some big leads).  The problem is NOTHING HERE PASSES EVEN A MONKEY'S REVIEW OF THE STATS. (Ignoring the idiotic notion that two Super Bowl losses and a AFC Championship loss in seven years is somehow seen as having a fatal flaw)

Let's think about what he's implying : The Patriots won before because they ran more and they aren't winning now because they run less. Running = Winning*.  Is any of that true?

*well actually he's saying "Balance = Winning" but you need to run in the Top 5 to have balance according to the premise of the article

The Patriots won before because they ran more

The Patriots won the Super Bowl in 2001, 2003, and 2004.  They ranked 8th, 12th and 5th in rushing attempts.  So only one year did they meet the criteria set up by this guy.

"But Harper" you say "8th and 12th are still pretty good".  Ok I agree but is it true that the Pats

aren't winning now because they run less

so they must have run a lot less in the last few years, right? Let's look in where they rank in rushing attempts since 2005.

18th, 7th, 9th, 4th, 10th, 10th, 17th

Hmmm 2006-2010 look as good as their Super Bowl years don't they? And they made the Super Bowl last year when they actually didn't run that much.

"Harper" you plead "you're missing the big picture. Winners RUN. Maybe the Pats ran ok but they still weren't Top 5.  That's where the Champions are!"  Well let's see, is it true? Does

Running = Winning.

Let's look at how the SB Champs rank in rushing attempts since 2005

1st,

"SEE TOLD YOU!" 

 18th, 8th, 9th, 7th, 20th, 22nd

"Oh, I'll be quiet now"

In fact in four out of the last seven years the Patriots RAN MORE THAN THE EVENTUAL CHAMPION. (and in the year of the first loss to the Giants they were 9th and the Giants were 8th - hardly compelling evidence.

The end result is that NOTHING HE SAID HOLDS ANY TRUTH. He thought of an idea "Steven Ridley makes the Pats a better title contender" but then didn't bother to figure out how exactly to prove that. Thing is there might be something there. He gives a sentence noting Ridley gained the most yards since Dillon 2004. Right behind Ridley is 2001's Antowain Smith.  All Super Bowl years.  He says balance but he doesn't look at rushing attempts to passing attempts or rush yards to pass yards.  Maybe that would show something. Instead he just lead with some nonsense about rushing attempt rankings, which doesn't hold up to the scrutiny of a guy at lunch spending 15 minutes looking at pro-football-reference.com.

12 comments:

michael k said...

Another problem with such analysis: even if he proved that runners win a lot, that's probably not because runners win, but because winners run.

Bryan said...

I'm a football fan first and foremost, and I have to say this is the most annoying thing about the sport. Or about its fans, at any rate.

D28 said...

Maybe the argument is something like, "the Pats are one of the best passing teams, therefore having a good running game makes them even stronger, and thus Pats will win this year" ?
Still not a particularly insightful analysis...

Ben said...

SI.com breaking news: Ben Reiter to be given lifetime baseball HOF ballot.

Harper said...

mk - First you see if there is correlation, then you see what exactly that means. I'd have at least liked him to do the first part since it's so eary

Bryan - one day... it will be slightly better, let's not get crazy here

D28 - That IS his argument but then the leading thing he trots out there to say "good running game" is rushing attempts. Which doesn't match up in anyway. Makes me want to do his work for him but I won't! Hear me Ben Reiter! No way!

Ben - I kind of wish this was actually the guy that wrote the article mocking me.

Zimmerman11 said...

Harper, you're not a Patriots AND a Yankee fan are you?!?!?! You also root for The Lakers? And Redwings???

Ben said...

Have you considered that my, err, I mean Ben Reiter's article could be a clever troll to make sports fans who care about rational reasoning (NEEERRRRDDDSSS!) heads explode while simultaneously causing Terry Bradshaw's last brain cell to sing with affirmation of "just sayin stuff"?

#YouFellForItMuhahahahaha

Anonymous said...

But what's his WAR?

Clip&Store said...

I honestly don't even care much about the skins lost anymore...im so done with football for the year and ready (well, i've always been all winter) for baseball

Zimmerman11 said...

How did the coverage and criticism of the Nats shutting down Strasburg influence the Redskins handling of RGIII? Did it? And why is the press now lambasting the Skins for doing essentially what they said should have been done with Stras? Football is a more macho sport I guess, but both players were experiencing fatigue and reduced MPH :-)

Harper said...

Z11 - Not sure how that read like a Pats fan but no, not a Pats fan in the least. (though 50% of that is because I know it would make Red Sox fans happy if the Pats won)

(not Lakers or Red Wings either)

Ben - maybe but then it shouldn't have even been about a fact that may or may not be true. Just say its because "they are tougher" this year. Find someone little and scrappy to focus on. Is Woodhead still there? Say he's getting even dirtier than ever. You've gotta step up that trolling.

Anon - ummmmmmmmmm 1812

C&S - I want baseball back too but gotta avoid getting sucked into the whole P&C ST thing where you get all excited only for nothing substantial to happen. Gotta treat it like the slow build-up it is. Football and CBB help keep in check.

Z11 - I doubt it influenced the Redskins decision in the least especially since nearly everyone was for him playing - the issue only really came up mid-game. Can't imagine they are focused on the media at that point.

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