Nationals Baseball: Storen paying for Davey's mistakes

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Storen paying for Davey's mistakes

Drew Storen has had a pretty bad spring.  So what?  As we've said 1.39 million times, Spring Training stats don't matter. But Nats fans are ready to give up on Drew.  Don't you remember?  HE LOST GAME 5!!!!  HE CAN'T HANDLE PRESSURE!!!! HE EXXCUSESDS AND HEADCASES AND ELEVELENTY!

Let's review shall we?
  • Drew Storen took over the closer role in 2011.  He was great according to the standard stats. He had a 2.75 ERA. He blew 5 saves and converted 43. He was great according to the fancy stats. He had a 1.022 WHIP, and 8.8 K/9, a 3.14 xFIP.  He was probably a Top 10 closer. 
  • Last year after coming back from injury he pitched great again during the regular season. Both his WHIP and ERA dropped. He didn't give up a single home run.  
  • In the playoffs he appeared 3 times before the finale.  He came into game 1 with a one run lead and got out the heart of the Cards order, Jay, Beltran, and Holliday, to save the game for the Nats.  He came into game 4 tied and got out Freese, Descalso, walked Kozma, then got out Carpenter to hold the lead and set up Werth's dramatic home run. In those first 3 appearances he pitched 3 innings, gave up no hits, walked 1 and struck out 4. No one scored on him for a 0.00 ERA.
Now, I mentioned Game 1 and Game 4, what happened in game 3? In that game Storen came in 8 runs behind. Why did he come in 8 runs behind? To get work in.  Davey didn't use him in game 2 and there was a day off between games 2 and 3, so to keep Storen "fresh" Davey wanted him to throw. He did and he did well, as you might have expected, getting out Freese, Descalso and Kozma in order. Fine.

The problem is this unnecessary use in game 3 set-up a dangerous situation. What if Storen was needed in Game 4 and Game 5?  They were scheduled to be played back to back, which would mean he'd pitch in 3 consecutive days.  He'd done it before (twice since coming back from injury) but both times he had very easy 2nd outings.  In the first case he was asked to get 2 outs against the Astros and did it in 8 pitches.  In the second case he was asked to get 1 versus the Mets and did it in 3.  His role was different now. Davey wasn't going to use him just to get 1 or 2 outs.  What if he had to pitch a whole inning in his 2nd appearance and labored through it?  Wouldn't that set-up a no-win situation where either a tired Storen would have to come in for the 3rd game in a row or you'd have to go with a arm you believed in less?

So getting TO Game 5 Davey blundered twice.
  • He chose not use Storen in Game 2, prior to the off day, to keep his arm warm for the remainder of the series. If he had he probably wouldn't have felt compelled to use him in the Game 3 blowout. Maybe he'd have to use him in 3 straight games but it would be dictated by necessity.
  • He did use him in game 3, even though he didn't need to which set-up a potential situation where a tired Storen could be necessary for a critical spot in Game 5.  It wasn't the most likely scenario but it is what in fact transpired. 
In Game 4 Storen held the line and helped set-up the biggest win in Nats history, but there were no easy at bats. He came in to face the exact same 3 guys as he had the night before. They were more comfortable against him and worked him for 24 pitches. In Game 5 Davey was faced with a situation where he basically needed to go with Storen. He'd burned through his #2-#4 relievers (Clippard, Burnett, and Stammen) and the Nats were clinging to a 2 run lead. It'd either have to be Storen or the untested Christian Garcia to finish the game off. (Mattheus being the 3rd option).  Davey went with Storen.  Etc.  Etc.

We've gone over this before but in Game 5 Davey made two critical errors.
  • He pitched Edwin Jackson in relief for no goddamn reason. Both Mattheus and Garcia were available.  Instead he went with his gut, used Edwin, who nearly blew the game right there. He got lucky, only gave up one run, but turned the line-up over so the big bats would get one more turn up.
  • He kept Storen on the mound in a position that was ripe for failure. You could argue he should have used Garcia but even I think you have to try Storen there first. Sure he might have been (and was) tired but sometimes that works in your advantage.  And it seemed like it would work. After a double came two outs, but then he walked Molina and set up a situation where Storen was about to face the same 3 guys - Freese, Descalso and Kozma for the third straight night. He was obviously was not the same pitcher, and had already thrown 16 pitches in the inning. It was time for him to sit down.  But Davey chose to stick with him. And he walked Freese.  So now he's thrown 22 pitches, he's just walked the bases loaded on back to back bases on balls.  He's about to face ANOTHER guy that saw him in each of the last two nights.  YOU HAVE TO TAKE HIM OUT.  Yet Davey keeps him in and the guy gets a hard shot off of a diving Desmond that ties the game.  THEN REPEAT EVERYTHING I JUST SAID EXCEPT ADD A HIT.  And yet Davey keeps him in.
Sorry about this. Getting out of hand a bit.

Look the point is this. Up until the very last game he pitched in 2012. Drew Storen was not a good relief pitcher, he was one of the better ones in the majors. Not Chapman, Kimbrel dominant but reliably very, very good. In the Cardinals series alone he had a big save and even a bigger hold. In the last game, he was set up to fail by a series of dumb decisions by Davey Johnson leading up to Game 5, leading up to the last inning of Game 5, and in the last inning of Game 5.  If you told me Davey's ultimate goal was that he wanted Storen to lose this game, I could almost believe you. And eventually, after almost getting out of it, Storen did lose it. 

I can't argue with picking up an arm like Soriano.  They lost Burnett. Clippard labored at the end of last year. Bullpens are notoriously fickle. They needed another arm. They got a great one. But adding Soriano as the closer doesn't mean Storen should be disrespected. He's not a bad pitcher.  He's a damn good one that had one bad game in the worst of circumstances and he's taking far too much heat from fans that should be directed at the manager.

63 comments:

Chris Needham said...

Is he really taking heat from fans?

Or just assholes on twitter?

cass said...

He's taking heat from fans? I believe I heard he got a standing ovation at Nats Fest. And I haven't seen any Storen-hate on blogs. There's a little worry due to his performance, but I think Soriano's struggles are worrying fans more. Storen's a charismatic guy and the non-bandwagon fans, at least, tend to like him.

I imagine he'll pitch well this year and everything will be fine, though relievers are notoriously unreliable. And great relievers who aren't closers, like Burnett, for example, tend to be underrated.

Todd Boss said...

Couldn't agree more with your criticism of Johnson's bringing in Storen (for no reason) in Game 3. I brought up the same point in my original game 5 recap here; http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4957

At the time, I didn't really criticize the Jackson move b/c it had worked so well the night before (bringing in a starter to work one inning). In hindsight though, not using Mattheus mean that Johnson managed the game differently than he had all season ... a classic rookie mistake. Except he's no rookie manager.

Harper said...

Needham / cass - He isn't getting ridden into the ground or anything but the sense I get (ignoring the crazies on twitter) is that fans think he might not be cut out for closing and were very happy Soriano got signed to be a proven closer. I'm not getting much of any "He's really good and will be a killer 8th guy" but maybe I'm not reading the same things you are.

Harper said...

Needham / cass - also fans should be KILLING Davey for that game 5, but they really have given him a pass.

Chris Needham said...

That entire series, really.

He gets a lucky fluke hit from Tyler Moore to barely squeeze out game 1, struts around rubbing Matheny's nose in his strategic brilliance... then goes out and manages 4 of the worst games of his career.

Other than the Z'nn in relief move, the rest was pretty uninspired.

Harper said...

TB - I didn't like the Jackson move from the start (he always had terrible first innings for some reason) the thing that's clearer in hindsight to me is that Storen should have been pulled at Freese. A the time I only was mad he pitched to Kozma, but Descalso was equally unforgivable and Freese was pretty questionable.

I guess this post was more about one more chance to yell at Davey then about Drew really. He's just my conduit. Has there been a "How is Davey handling the fact he screwed up the last game of the playoffs" article from any beat guy?

Chris Needham said...

They asked him after the series.... Davey was pretty arrogant basically saying something like "I managed a great game". He really sort of threw the players under the bus there.

There was so much you could do hindsight in that game... including walking Kozma. I really think that after the Descalo hit, everyone was just shellshocked.

Harper said...

Chris - I'm sure if you asked Davey he'd say "The only thing I remember is that those guys failed to win those games"

Drew's "back spasms", true or not, was lame to bring up but Davey should fall on his sword at that point to protect his players. Instead he lays it all on Drew (and bring up Gio for no reason). Kind of glad he's taking off after this year. This curmudgeon act could grow old fast.

Chris Needham said...

It was a stark contrast to that one Braves game where they blew the 8-run lead (or whatever it was). FORSHADOWING!

He basically went out of his way to take the blame there. I remember watching the press conference, and he started an answer... stopped. Licked his lips like a lizard... then took full blame. you could see him switch strategy, realizing he needed to deflect.

Froggy said...

For the record, there were some of us in the stands who WERE yelling at Davey to not put Ejax in as well as pull Storen out before Freese. It was a surreal experience to say the least.

As to the bullpen, I'm not feeling all to confident. Soriano isn't having a great Spring, as you mention Drew is all up in his own head right now, Henry is completely unpredictable, Detweiler is in the starting 5, Garcia has a china doll elbow/pitching arm, and there is no more Burnett. So, who is the bullpen this year? Won't do any good to have your starters go 6 strong innings if you can't shut folks down.

D28 said...

The Jackson move really was bad -- and then Davy said he called the game as he had all year. Gio said "I did everything right, I gave the team a lead".
From the stands it looked like Drew's pitches should have been strikes (to me at least). Only Drew took responsibility for what happened.

I think he'll be an awesome 8th inning guy!

cass said...

If Zimmermann hadn't worked out in Game 4, people would be lambasting that move. He got creative and did something unusual, which is risky, because you end up taking blame if it fails. But it worked. Didn't work as well in Game 5, but I don't really blame Davey since it worked the night before and his relievers had been getting hit pretty hard during the series.

I also don't put much blame on him for Storen's usage in Game 5. Storen's a good pitcher and didn't appear to be pitching horribly. He made a couple borderline pitches and didn't get the call. He did record two outs pretty easily. So ya leave him in because he's your best reliever. If you lose, you want to lose with your best guy. It's not like Storen was obviously injured.

The big mistake Davey made was in Game 3, which you have mentioned. Storen never should have been brought in. If the Nats were going to win the Series, they'd have to win games 4 and 5 and you'd expect to need Storen for both games. So "getting him work" made no sense because if his work is going to actually matter the next two games, he's gonna be overused by putting him in Game 3.

Davey could have done a lot worse. He and the Nats basically did what they needed to in order to win. If the umpire had called one of Storen's borderline pitches a strike, he'd be the hero and even Cardinals fans wouldn't be complaining about the call. But everything broke the wrong way and imploded. Just a freak occurence, really. 95% of the time, the Nats win that game. They didn't. It sucks. But that's baseball.

blovy8 said...

Ugh, do we have to relive this again? If only Eric Gregg had been the umpire...

Nationals101 said...

Excellent post. We'll be linking to it at Nationals101 tomorrow when we do our own Storen piece.

As to if he's taking heat from fans, that's a tough call. In that same room he got a Standing Ovation at Natsfest in, an asshat in the back was constantly muttering under his breath about how Storen was total b**sh##t.

When he again said he sucked under his breath, my wife turned around and told to him shut up and I offered him help closing his pie-hole if he couldn't do it on his own.

Long and fun story to point out that, for now, the minority position is to publicly admonish him, but a lot of people are waiting for him to screw up this year, I bet. The @Die_Storen account didn't create itself.

But a well thought out post, good job.

Nationals101 said...

Excellent post. We'll be linking to it at Nationals101 tomorrow when we do our own Storen piece.

As to if he's taking heat from fans, that's a tough call. In that same room he got a Standing Ovation at Natsfest in, an asshat in the back was constantly muttering under his breath about how Storen was total b**sh##t.

When he again said he sucked under his breath, my wife turned around and told to him shut up and I offered him help closing his pie-hole if he couldn't do it on his own.

Long and fun story to point out that, for now, the minority position is to publicly admonish him, but a lot of people are waiting for him to screw up this year, I bet. The @Die_Storen account didn't create itself.

But a well thought out post, good job.

Jon said...

Fans are fickle. Two years ago the almost exploded at the thought of trading Storen for Span. Now fans are excited to have traded a potential #2 starter for Span... and they are down on Storen. Fans are fickle.

Anonymous said...

Personally, I haven't heard a noise about Storen from any of my fellow fans beyond, "Jeez, wish he'd thrown a strike". I don't believe the organization has given up on Storen in any way and expects him to be the closer in 2 years at the latest. It being the first shot at the postseason (and I am among those who believe there are several more trips coming in the next 5 years) for this crew, they all get passes for the excellent job they did during the regular season. Except Jackson. feh.

Chaos.....why EJax, Davey? Why? Mattheus was awesome and you let him sit.

cass said...

Mattheus wasn't awesome in the postseason. A tiny sample size, of course, but over 3 innings, he struck no one out but gave up three hits, a walk, and two runs. All of that came in his Game 3 appearance, which was likely what was on Davey's mind. Not saying it was defensible, but given that JZ had worked so well the night before, he probably wanted to do something similar again rather than give the ball to the guy who had given up runs against the Cards in his last appearance.

I would have brought in Mattheus myself, but my feeling was one of nervousness, not horrt, when he came in.

Clearly, what neads to happen is to invite Katy Perry to come out and sing live while Mattheus warms up. Davey wouldn't be able to turn that down.

Anonymous said...

Bleachers Managers!

Nats fan said...

I completely agree about Storen! On the other hand, Soriano is a good not a great pitcher. He had very few tough saves last year, so his totals in that regard look better than they really were.

A Fly Moses said...

Not that I don't agree with the premise here, but there's something a little ironic about writing a "it was only one bad game, he'll be fine" post about Storen and then turn around and say "but Davey was terrible in that game so thank god he'sretiring after the season," no?

cass said...

No one here said, "thank got he's retiring."

I imagine that everyone here thinks Davey is a good manager, even if they disagree with some moves he made. I personally happen to feel he's a great manager - the best of any team I've been a fan of. It could be so much worse.

blovy8 said...

I think it would be more natural to worry about Soriano rather than Storen at this point. It would be pretty funny if Burnett pitched better for the Angels than Soriano does for the Nats because they were "against" giving him more than one year. Well, not funny exactly, because I'm guessing that's what WILL happen now.

Either way, Storen will probably be just as important getting difficult hitters out in tough situations rather than whoever happens to be up in the ninth. Bummer for him is missing out on saves that would only make him richer in arbitration.

A Fly Moses said...

I overstated the point, but Harper did say in the comments he was kinda glad Davey was taking off after this year. My point being this seems as much an overreaction (considering the fact that the team just won 98 freaking games and there's not a hint anywhere of player discontent) as any fans who think Storen is suddenly terrible.

cass said...

Oh, I missed that, sorry.

I've disagreed with a few decisions Davey's made and how he handled a couple issues PR wise (Drew, and "John's my guy!" ugh), but on the whole, I think Davey is an incredible everyday manager. Good lineups. Good use of the bullpen. Good tactics.

I mean, do we want Frank feuding with his pitchers and riding Ayala's arm into the ground again? Manny sitting comotose in the dugout? Riggleman bunting and double-switching his way through every game? Davey's been a revelation.

The only reason I hope he retires this year is because the only way he won't retire is if the Nats don't win the World Series.

Anonymous said...

Why is everyone giving Davey crap? That's just dumb. Granted, yes that move to use Storen in game 3 wasn't the best decision in retrospect. But last time I checked, premonition isn't a requirement for a manager...

Really, the entire staff, with the exception of Detwiler didn't throw very well in the NLDS. Zimmermann had his moment, and if I remember correctly, Garcia and Storen also had a couple. And on top of that, in games 1-4 we really did not hit like we were at the end of the season when the pitching staff was obviously tiring. I feel like the staff got too comfortable towards the end of the season with the monstrous offensive support they were getting. They just weren't as stingy with giving up runs as they were at the beginning of the season.

Now, as for the final inning of game 5, as much as I respect and admire Kurt Suzuki, I don't know what it is, but if you watch him sometimes he anticipates whether a ball will be called a ball or strike and doesn't frame them, and other times after he's given up on the pitch he will go to throw it back to the pitcher all in one motion, effectively pushing the perceived location of the pitch out of the strike zone. I noticed this for the first time in that one dreadfully long game against the Astros in Houston. He did this a few times in that final inning of game 5. One time, he even stood up to celebrate on a 2 strike pitch to Freese (I think?) before the pitch had been called, effectively, rendering it a ball.

Note: none of this was intended to say Zuki is a bad catcher, I just wrote this to show how overanalyzing these things are idiotic. While it is easy to nitpick and find flaws now, we have the benefit of hindsight. There was no one person or player who lost and was eliminated from the playoffs. The reality is that the Nationals played poorly in the division series as a team, and so, they lost and were eliminated as a team.

Regardless, they are still unquestionably the most talented team in baseball. I have high expectations for this season.

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