Nationals Baseball: Ross Detwiler ERA Challenge Update! (and WIN)

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

Ross Detwiler ERA Challenge Update! (and WIN)

Because who wants to talk about this lousy team

Right now Ross has an ERA of 3.34.  We'll round for the official winner but as for right now that's good enough.  Currently in the lead are :

3.33 bsimon24, Robert Gittings
3.35 Strasburger, Kevin Fries

My 3.65 is looking pretty good I think.  The real question is if Ross will pitch enough innings to qualify (164.1).  Right now he probably would, but miss a few more starts and that could be that. (Oh sure if it's close to 164 I'm not going to be a jerk about it)

As for the team...

A game like last night is trouble for fans. It was Cliff Lee v Ross Detwiler's first start back from injury. The Nats were likely going to lose regardless if they played like 2012 or 2008. But fans have seen enough losing that "they were supposed to lose" doesn't matter anymore. They've seen too many "they were supposed to win"s turn out the other way at this point.

Enough time has passed that we can see that 2012 was... well not an illusion, but a nearly maxed out result. We can't be putting too much weight on that. This isn't a team that will brush up against 100 wins because LaRoche and Desmond and Span and Werth and Suzuki, and the entire bench are not going to again put up numbers like they did last year (this includes D). Bryce may get better but that's not enough for the offense match last year. It doesn't mean they should be bad, but this was a team that averaged 4.5 runs per game last year, with everyone doing well and the bench playing out of it's mind. This year, league average would be more in line. (Boz pegged the Nats to actually be BETTER using "modest" assumptions - that's crazy)

This team out there now IS the team expected without Bryce in the lineup. Oh, ok yes Ramos should be there but we had no firm idea on how well he would play. And yes, Espy would be there but is anyone thinking Rendon won't at least match Espy's offensive production?  This is the Nats offense. It should still be decent without Bryce.


Strasburger said...

Look at me tied for the LEAD. What do I win? Playoff Tickets?

.. oh, wait.

Kenny B. said...

We draw closer and closer to the point where we need to just look at 2014. If 2012 is not a good baseline against which to judge the team's talent level, then where does 2013 fit in to analysis of the team going forward, and how does the team improve its offense and fill that fifth starter slot?

I know it's probably still a little too early to give up, but I don't see a turnaround happening unless Bryce does some pretty phenomenal stuff that inspires everyone else to hit the damn ball.

Anonymous said...

No pressure on the 20-year old, though.

Harper said...

Stras - Worse than you think. Wizards playoff tickets.

Kenny B - somewhere inbetween. You have to be careful because the Nats shouldn't need massive work to become a strong contender in 2014.

Beside the obvious "try harder with bench", there are two early possible improvements, one like you say is the 5th starter slot. Rather than do this try for a one-year gamble again, it might be better to deal for someone like James Shields, a year away from FA, if they can. The budget effect will be the same and they are more likely to get a good pitcher in a prime year. The second is signing a catcher that can hit McCann? Saltalamacchia? It'll be costly whatever they do here. The rest of the offense for 2014 is fairly well set.

Anon - He's the best offensive player on the team. It's a gift and a curse.

bdrube said...

Here is your real problem with Detwiler--he still doesn't pitch deep into games. In ten starts he's averaging around five and two-third innings per start. I'm convinced that it was Lannan's increasing inability to eat innings (his IP per start average dropped every year after 2009 and bottomed out at a putrid 5.3 last yeast year) that was a big factor in causing Rizzo to sour on him. Detwiler's K/9 rate is also very Lannan-esque at 4.6, despite being able to throw the ball a lot harder.

For me the jury is still out as to whether Ross is viable middle of the rotation starter long term. He still looks like he could end up sharply regressing at at any time. BTW--he missed 4 turns in the rotation, meaning he is set for 28 starts if he doesn't get injured again. 28 starts time his current 5.67 innings per start would give him 159 innings, so he may well fall short of ERA crown eligibility even if he does not miss another turn.

Chaz R said...

Harper, seems like the bench is the place most in need of fixing. What can done with it though? They will need to keep Lombo because he isn't a bad hitter and he is so versatile in the field. That really leaves Roger and Tracey. Roger's speed is certainly worth something, but Tracey...? If they were to be traded what might available out there? I think we are seeing the potential augmentation from the minors now.

Anonymous said...

The time to panic is the All-Star Break... or not. Optimistic prediction time!!!! Gio eeks out the win tonight getting more than 2 runs of support. LaRoche begins his 2nd half surge a bit early, starting this weekend. Harper returns next week. Zim keeps being Zim. Rendon stays "Who was that Espinosa guy anyway?" hot. Suzuki picks up a bit, Desmond doesn't slump, and Span begins to hit balls to left field. All this adds up to a 17-8 run to the break, taking 6 out of 7 series (a split next trip to Philly only series not "won"). After the break we see the 2012 Nationals again, catch the Braves, win the division and then... crushing NLDS defeat as is DC sports tradition.

Or we could just cruse along at .500 and avoid the crushing NLDS defeat. --Vdub

bdrube said...

Chaz R - seriously? We'd be lucky to get a bag of baseballs and catcher's mitt for Bernadina and Tracy at this point. Why would any team give up anything of value to obtain two guys who would already have been DFA'ed by a lot of clubs?

And as for augmentation from the minors, that adds up to Rendon and Kroll, period (I don't count Abad or Ohlendorf because they did not come up through our system and were already major leaguers. Besides, they will likely regress to being their usual crappy selves before too long). None of the other call ups have so far shown to be any better than the guys they replaced and there aren't any other MLB-ready guys currently in our system.

Anonymous said...

Can you put a price on a bag of really nice baseballs, though? You get what you pay for.

Kenny B. said...

"Gio eeks out the win tonight getting more than 2 runs of support."

Well, Gio didn't actually get the win credit, and he got less than two runs of support, but as far as predictions go this one was pretty close. Please do me a favor and be right about all of the rest of them, except for the DC tradition of first round playoff devastation. God, that NLDS game 5 still hurts...