Nationals Baseball: Rendon!

Thursday, June 27, 2013

Rendon!

Since no one is writing about Anthony Rendon I figure I will to...

Hmm oh the Post did? And the Times? And Zuck (for CSN Washington if anyone thinks of it that way)?

What did they say?  readreadreadreadreadreadread

Ok pretty basic stuff, but he's only played 26 games. Going into the fancy stats at this point is like doing it at the end of April.  It's kind of pointless. Maybe he is very good (35.4% LD rate) and something like this will continue with a batting average well above .300. Or maybe he's just remarkably lucky (.420 BABIP) and he'll drop down to something in the mid to high .200s. We can't really say. It's been only a month and for every point you can bring up for/against a counterpoint can be made.

  • His minor league numbers suggest he'd strike-out more  /  He's still a kid and learning so it's possible it would go down. 
  • His walk rate is unfavorably low  /  He's shown much more tendency to walk throughout his minor league play
  • He hasn't shown the pop you'd like him to with only 1 homer  /  Again minors show the likelihood of power to come.  
  • Didn't people get all excited about Tyler Moore last year?  /  Yes, but Rendon has a much better pedigree
  • He's not really fielding all that well like people are saying  /  Well he's not a 2nd baseman, he's not awful, and he likely won't be playing there in a couple years.
  • He's an injury risk  /  He's not injured now
  • Isn't he just taking advantage of the period where major league pitchers see if they can get you out using primarily fastballs because that's the easiest way to do it?  /  Ummm ok you got me there

Remember the whole thing about last year that Bryce wasn't getting fastballs or strikes?  That's pretty atypical for a rookie because most of the time they want to see if they can get you out with fastballs that are strikes because that's what they want to throw.

63.7% of the pitches Anthony Rendon has seen have been fastballs. That would put him around 10th in the league if he had enough at bats.  47.9% of the pitches he's seen have been inside the zone. That would put him about 20th. Basically pitchers are challenging him

The good news is that he is obviously more than up to that challenge.  Each team will probably take there chances doing the same, making sure it's not just a fluke of small sample size that we're dealing with. When that fails (and it seems like it will) He'll see a more standard mix of pitchers. That'll give us a better idea of what kind of hitter he'll be for the rest of this season. 

13 comments:

Donald said...

Your description of Rendon having a better pedigree is apt. If not for injury, he would likely have been the #1 player in the draft. That says a lot about his potential. You'd kind of expect a #1 to be able to hit well -- not this well, this early -- but still...

With Harper and Ramos coming back, too, the offense is definitely on the upswing. And now that Haren's out of the rotation, the chance for a winning streak is more possible.

To carry over the thread from your last post, I know is seems like 6 games is a lot to make up, but if they were 2 back, everyone would consider the division to be a toss-up. And right now, all it would take is one good weekend with the Nats winning 3 and the Braves losing 3 to be 2 back.

Anonymous said...

T-MO has Legit Power!!!!

Davey loves power, so he will continue to get chances.

If only he could cut down down on his strikeouts...

Erich said...

You forgot the hair. The moment that grows out it's slump city.

Froggy said...

Rendon has a legit swing and great mechanics, foot down early, head down, inside the ball, etc. Of course it is early and as you rightly point out, he is getting a large diet of FB's...just like Tyler Moore got last June. Let's just hope Rendon has more discipline when the league gets their second look at him and makes their adjustments.

Moore got lucky last night. He is merely a placeholder until Harper comes back. The Shark is a much better defender and can play any OF position unlike Moore who makes Morse look like Joe Rudi in LF. Moore should be playing 1b or DH on an AL team IMO.

Joe C said...

Harper- you bring up what pitchers did to Bryce when he was first called up. When Bryce was first called up he was pulling almost everything so they started to pitch him soft stuff away and he started rolling over to SS or weak groundouts to 2B. They've been going away to Rendon and he's shown that he is more than capable of going the other way so he's taken the outer half of the plate away this early in his career which is opening up everything for him.

The only thing I'm worried about is there are a lot of moving parts before he puts his foot down. His timing is perfect right now, hitting everything up the middle, but if its a split second off because of all the moving parts, those hits up the middle turn into routine groundouts. It's going to happen eventually (everybody gets into slumps unless you're name is Miguel Cabrera)I just hope he'll be able to get out of it. We have to enjoy it while it lasts!

BlueLoneWolf said...

Ride the horse while he's hot, that's all I can say right now. And Rendon's on fire. Yeah it's sprayball singles and doubles but when no one else on the team can get on base you definitely take what you can get.

Chaz R said...

I think we should be prepared for some drop-off in Rendon's numbers, once pitchers get to know him and start pitching him more carefully. Rendon, being the good hitter he is, will also likely adjust much like Harper did. I think we should expect (and be happy about it) a top batting order of Span:.250-.275; Rendon:.285-.300; Harper: .290-.320; Zim:.275-.300; Werth:.275-.290; LaRoche: .250-.280, all with pop.

bdrube said...

Assuming Rendon will be hitting ahead of Harper when the latter returns, he likely continue to see decent pitches. He just looks like a natural hitter, very comfortable at the plate and willing to use the whole field. As for his power, he may end up more resembling Wade Boggs than Mike Schmidt, but I'm okay with that.

As for Tyler Moore, his biggest problem is that he doesn't walk enough. Unless he improves his on base skills he'll never be anything more than a very poor man's Adam Dunn.

Clip&Store said...

Obviously the average will go down, but Rendon has always exhibited good to great plate discipline and walk rate. Remember when Bryce seemed to swing at everything and people were worried? The last month+ before going on the DL his walk rate went through the roof. I think Rendon is a high 200s, low 300s hitter when all is said and done, double machine, with moderate power #'s.

Anonymous said...

Not ready to put him in the HOF just yet, but he is hitting now and the Nats certainly can use it. He will likely cool off, but he has been a good hitter all his life, and I suspect he will be a .280-.290 hitter in the majors when it is all said and done.

Froggy said...

What a study in contrasts between Moore and Rendon eh? Both have been to bat around 100 times (Rendon 104 and Moore 101) and Rendon has 35 hits to Moore's 16. Rendon has 18 K's to Moore's 38. Rendon 1 HR and Moore 3.

Moore is a sinkhole at bat. Should have kept Ankiel, at least he could play defense.

Mythical Monkey said...

So I did the math. Rendon wound up with 35 hits in his first 100 at bats, which means if he goes hitless in his next 100 at bats, he'll still be batting 17 points higher than Danny Espinosa ...

ocw5000 said...

Pitchers will have a hard time getting Rendon to chase once they stop challenging him. His O-Swing% (swinging at pitches outside the zone) is 20.6%, which is 8th best in MLB (min 100PA). This passes the eye test too: watch all the borderline pitches he takes for balls. When pitchers start nibbling, his walk rate will go up to minor-league levels.

Oh and of course 9th worst O-Swing% is Mr. Espinosa.

Rendon is basically Paul Molitor with a mullet. Paul Mullitor.