Nationals Baseball: Carving up the lefties

Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Carving up the lefties

Before you take off for the best holiday of the year let's be clear in the fact that while the Nats would love to get a reliable lefty for the pen, it may not happen. Why is that the case?

This is why.

Javier Lopez hasn't been worth 4.3 million in any year in his career (although you could probably argue it for last year - which good for him on the timing!) He's old. Older than me! And yet he gets a nice fat contract. What will the more reliable and younger Boone Logan get? At least that. What do the Nats want to pay? Not that.

They'll look. They'll kick the tires. They'll offer fair deals. Problem is fair deals are not going to get it done. They need to overpay for lefties and they may not do it. That's why they are talking about Solis so much. As we talked about in the comments, it's not really about leverage on deals. Lefty reliever will get theirs. It's about getting you fans ready for what might happen when Rizzo can't pull the trigger on an overpay. Are you ready?

Thanksgiving Menu - for those interested.

Turkey, sour cream mashed potatoes, glazed root vegetables, cranberry sauce, sweet potato casserole, dill rolls, sausage stuffing with sage and dried cherries, pumpkin pie, cranberry handpies

20 comments:

Anon21 said...

Are you one of those people who genuinely but misguidedly likes turkey, or one of those people who eats it because of tradition?

Harper said...

Anon21 - I like turkey. Eat it probably another 3 or four times a year (breats not full turkey). I eat everything though. I find food aversions odd.

Clip&Store said...

Mmm turkey and stuffing are 2 of my favorite foods! Too bad turkey day (Native American oppression day) isn't more often!

In regards to the lefty situation, a recent interview made it sound like Rizzo is favoring the idea of Det as a reliever. Thoughts? Assuming he accepts the role without causing clubhouse morale problems, i think it would be a good idea.

Zimmerman11 said...

I'm missing out on Thanksgiving back home for the first time in many years. I'm very disappointed. The in-laws, while well-intentioned, do not compare to my family when it comes to Turkey Day. Sausage stuffing, sweet rolls, seven kinds of pie. Just read that the average Thanksgiving day meal clocks in around 4500 calories. 'MERICA!

The talk of Det to the 'pen and Desmond available in trade seems to hint at a monster deal for pitching is being discussed. Would hate to tear up the team... then again w/o signing Cano, don't see how to make the team a lot better via FA. In Rizzo we trust?

Happy Thanksgiving everyone.

DaveB said...

Just saw that Manny Parra re-signed with the Reds for what looked like a much more reasonable contract than Javy's. However, it was still for 2 years, and it seems like Rizzo just doesn't want to go even that long for a reliever. It sure seems like JP Howell would be perfect but he will clearly cost more, so maybe a trade (e.g., Toronto (Cecil or Loup) or Texas (Robbie Ross or Neal Cotts)). I agree with Z11 that it would really scare me to tear up the team just to get another pitcher, so I kinda hope they pass on that and give it another year with just patching the holes (LH reliever, bench, maybe a mid-tier 5th starter).
(Thanksgiving dinner sounds great!)

Anonymous said...

In 2010, 2011, 2013 Lopez had a WAR of 1 or higher. And if you believe in the Dave Cameron win value which has the value of a win at about 5 millions dollars than, he has been worth that 3 out of the last 4 years.

Also put me down for sweet potatoes and green bean casserole. Yum!

Harper said...

C&S - hey nothings stopping you from having it another day. Makes a nice early may end of Spring feast.

I'd like to see Det as a reliever. I think injuries will force him that way at some point. Of course this needs to be coupled with that 4th starter signing.

z11 - Working the inlaw thing for the holidays can be rough. Everyone has their own traditions. I'm the cook though so what I say ends up going... for the most part. 7 pies though! You either are a big family or a family that is big.

You have to trust him. Squeezing what he can from TB for Desmond because Price alone is not enough?

Dave B - Javier is better and coming off a better year so that's why he got his. I think Lopez was high though. I see Howell 3-9mill? 2-7? Something better than Parra. Logan's consistency and age should definitely get 3.

I'd say - don't trade just sign but I'd have to see the trade first. I think you guys are right to be worried about the O. It's a delicate balance right now. Toss away a Desmond sized piece and that's a big hole to fill.
(Thanks!)

Anon - I like fangraphs WAR above B-REFs. (And since you are using Cameron's theory, fangraphs makes sense) They don't have him that high. 2010 is real interesting though B-Ref 1.8 WAR, Fangraphs 0.4? that's huge...

Anyway. I kind of think he's a little below that.

no GBC this year. Only one working oven and it's full. Gotta be stove top. which is why glazed root veggies are on the menu (previously it was brussel sprouts)

Zimmerman11 said...

Apple, Pumpkin, Strawberry Rhubarb, Pecan, Chocolate Pudding, Chocolate Raspberry Cheesecake and Regular Cheesecake... so not technically seven kinds of pie, given two are cheesecakes, but oh hells yeah :)

I do have a big family, in numbers. What is the hypothetical trade with TB that doesn't make me want to throw up all that pie?

Harper said...

z11 - Strawberry Rhubarb is a personal favortite. Haven't made one in forever though...

Price and Myers for Desmond? (Of course TB doesn't do that). A lot of people think Price alone would be fair and straight up value wise it might be, (certainly cost wise it would be given pitchers tend to make more money) but I'm not sure that makes the Nats better...

Price, Joyce, and Torres? SP, 4th OF (LH to play off of Scott Hairstons RH), and LHRP? Kill all those birds with one stone? (would put in a back-up C but I think Lobaton while not great, is needed enough by the Rays to kill the deal). All not FAs for a couple years (2020 for Torres!).

The problem is going to be filling that Desmond hole but the only other way the Nats could get a Price is by throwing like Giolito and Purke and more at TB. That's how they work.

cass said...

Please no trading Desmond away. Let's just assume this is a crazy idea like the Nationals Dome idea and that neither comes up again.

Sometimes you can overvalue your own players, but Desmond's generally underrated. He's been a legitimate superstar the last couple years. Definitely top-5 SS. You build around that, not trade it away. I have trouble seeing him that way myself sometimes, but he's been really great after improving his defense and hitting at the same time. He's come a long way.

Angus Goodson said...

We waited too long for Desmond to trade him away now! And Dude, serve SOMETHING green!

Chaz R said...

Oh God no trading Desi. I just don't know how you replace that piece in the lineup and field. Can you imagine if Espi worked out his offense issues? We actually could trade Desi for Price and put Espi at SS ! And how about signing Cano as a FA too! Price plus Espi at SS and Cano at 2B. I think I have a had a bit much early holiday cheer.

Zimmerman11 said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Zimmerman11 said...

This guy is crazy, right?

Desmond and Storen for Scherzer? Desmond for Brandon Phillips? Really?

María Cava Cava said...

Lefties catálogo is great

Chinatown Express said...

Turkey is amazing, provided that it's cooked right. It usually isn't. Roasting a massive spherical bird that consists of multiple types of meat in a single oven at a single temperature for a set time period is guaranteed to result in either (1) undercooked bits or (2) drastically overcookd bits. If you brine a good turkey and then butcher it BEFORE roasting it, you can get a pretty amazing meal. The Mexicans know this --- go have some turkey in mole poblano, then talk to me.

Trading Desmond is insane. There's no acceptable free-agent option and there's no acceptable minor league option (sorry, neither Espi nor Walters counts). So we're going to make a massive hole in the lineup offensively and up the middle defensively to upgrade our fourth (or really fifth) starter? No thanks.

Even if the plan were to trade Desi for some other team's entire farm system (heck, let's say Pittsburgh's) it still doesn't fit, because you'd be sacrificing potential success now, while our top-3 pitchers are healthy and cheap, Harper is coming into his own and is cheap, and Werth and Zimm'n are still contributing value. Will things really be better in five years when those prospects start to burble up?

DezoPenguin said...

Anyone who'd consider trading the best shortstop in the National League (Tulo's better, but let's see him play 120+ games a couple of years in a row; Simmons has the magic glove but no bat) for Brandon Phillips is...probably Dusty Baker. Ignoring that Ian's younger, cheaper, and at a position where hitting is scarcer, he's a better hitter straight-up. (I wouldn't mind adding Phillips in a Rendon-to-third, Zimm-to-first scenario, but he's not somebody I'd actively pursue.)

Ultimately, Desmond at the core of a package to bring back even an ace SP...yeah, I just don't see why that's such a great plan. The difference between, say, Price and a Det/Roark/Jordan mix-and-match at 4th starter is not going to make up for the difference between Desmond and whatever waiver-wire fodder we slot in at SS (please, not Lombo as a fulltime starter!) unless Espinosa figures out where he left his bat.

I'd certainly listen to offers on him, in case someone's willing to make the Ramos-Capps blunder again, but they'd have to be megadeals that completely blow us away (or maybe part of a three-way trade that brings us back something adequate to plug in in his place) or like the Fielder-Kinsler trade, which addresses areas of weakness. Like, if we back the money truck up for Cano, *then* send Ian, Rendon (who'd be their new 3B, letting them play Castellanos in LF), and Storen to Detroit for Scherzer and Iglesias. Improves the infield defense, more or less holds serve on the offense, and improves the pitching.

Donald said...

I may be cynical, but I suspect that the rumors about shopping Desmond are mostly being fueled to add leverage for Rizzo in extension talks. If everyone believes that the Nats would never let Desmond go, he'd presumably be able to ask for more, so maybe Rizzo is trying to take him down a peg.

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