Nationals Baseball: Hall of Fame results - 2015

Tuesday, January 06, 2015

Hall of Fame results - 2015

So it's Randy, Pedro, Smoltz, and Biggio, as it was looking a couple days ago.

I'll reiterate - once Maddux didn't get a unanimous vote I can assure you no one will. To even have a chance you need to have someone with not just a Hall of Fame career but a legendary one PLUS they need to have amazing and consistent post-season success - which is getting lucky on two fronts (getting in enough and being that good when it counts)

Smoltz's love surprises me, as you could tell by my guesses on who gets in when I linked to yesterday. Not that he isn't a great pitcher, just that I look at him Mussina and Schilling and I can't really separate them that much. You give them equal health and equal quality teams and I'm not sure who ends up on top. It's my own fault though - I forgot that this is all perception. Smoltz was GREAT in the postseason to start his career. That stuck. He was just ok for the back 60% of his postseasons but by then it didn't matter. That's why Mussina gets a short shrift - no domination in the playoffs. What about Schilling with 2 dominant performances? Late start to career and people don't like him. That matters, shouldn't, but does.

Piazza's HoF induction was imminent when he was one of the only guys to see his vote go up last year, just has to wait a year.

Bagwell's rise is surprising and really shows that some people are "punishing" guys with PED connections, not keeping them out but making them wait. I suspect those people that worry about Bonds and Clemens getting in shouldn't. I think they'll rise dramatically in their last few years on the ballot.

Raines' rise is also of interest - he was building momentum but there was some question on whether the new 10 year rule was going to squeeze him out, not allowing the slow build to work its course. Turns out it probably just makes the slow build a fast one. I'd expect another rise next year to the mid 60s and then a nail-biting 10th year.
 
More on Mussina.  He did rise a bit but not enough to start to feel good about his chances. Part of this though is timing. Lots of good pitchers now, but not a lot coming down the pike. Next good ones might be Rivera and Hallada in 2019. If you like Halladay (and I think a lot of guys too) Mussina easily had a much better career. I think he'll get in but in year 9/10.

Being seen as a lost cause can hurt you as much as not being worthy. McGwire is dying a slow death but I doubt anyone who voted for him Year 1 (23.5%) thinks he's not worthy now (10%). More likely they are thinking "Why waste a vote, when I can push other names?". Might get a few more votes as ballot clears but not enough. Edgar Martinez suffering the same thing but has a couple more years to play with. Don't think he'll make it though. Sheffield, who's an interesting case, will probably suffer similar fate without a bump next year.

Erstad and Gordon both got stupid votes.

7 comments:

NatsVA said...

Looking forward to Nats Twitter sh*tting a brick over Zimmerman not getting in in ten years. Although they only care about players that can be made into memes so maybe not...

Harper said...

NatsVA - Zimm's chances right now are pretty much dead. The only hope is 1B keeps him healthy and revives his career. Either he has a few years like 2009 or he has ones like his recent ones extending for 8 years or so. That'll put him in shooting distance of going 400/3000. Of course either of those are total best cases.

I don't think Nats fans care that much. Now, if the Werth gnome doesn't get in....

John C. said...

FWIW I think that Zim plays more than five more years, so I think any Zim-angst that exists will happen more than ten years from now. And if he just becomes a solid, 3-4 WAR 1b for the next few years he has very little chance of making the HoF.

I still like him a lot, though, and am looking forward to seeing him play 1b this year.

Bjd1207 said...

Hahaha yea I don't think Zim has a shot unless we make a legit post-season run and he has another year or 2 of 25/100

Nick said...

Make all ballots public. I can't believe only 4 guys were inducted this year (I can believe it, it's just idiotic) among AT LEAST 10 guys who were more than qualified.

JWLumley said...

There was a great article on Sportsonearth.com that I'm too lazy to give everyone the link to. Basically, the guy laid out why the voting is B.S. and the BBWAA is ill-qualified to have the vote and how the vote is really more about the writers than it is about baseball, the fans or the museum. That being said, this is the first year I can remember really not caring. Cespedes Family BBQ was tweeting out Bonds statistics yesterday and it just made me cringe. Go look at his fangraphs page, it's ridiculous. Steroids can't do that, only an extreme amount of talent can. Steroids may have helped him, but as we're learning about the "new" strike zone's effect on hitting over the lat few years, the "old" strike zone could have had a similarly positive effect on that era. Point being, there's many things outside of steroids to explain why and how there was a dramatic increase in offense during that period and attempting to turn this into a moral debate is ridiculous. It's not like every guy that got in before 2000 was Lou Gehrig or something, there's a lot more Ty Cobb's in there than there are Clemente's.

Weav said...

My hope is that the Nats are still going to make a move to bring in a quality 2B.They can do it. Escobar and Espinosa are going to cost the team when it really counts.