So it's Randy, Pedro, Smoltz, and Biggio, as it was looking a couple days ago.
I'll reiterate - once Maddux didn't get a unanimous vote I can assure you no one will. To even have a chance you need to have someone with not just a Hall of Fame career but a legendary one PLUS they need to have amazing and consistent post-season success - which is getting lucky on two fronts (getting in enough and being that good when it counts)
Smoltz's love surprises me, as you could tell by my guesses on who gets in when I linked to yesterday. Not that he isn't a great pitcher, just that I look at him Mussina and Schilling and I can't really separate them that much. You give them equal health and equal quality teams and I'm not sure who ends up on top. It's my own fault though - I forgot that this is all perception. Smoltz was GREAT in the postseason to start his career. That stuck. He was just ok for the back 60% of his postseasons but by then it didn't matter. That's why Mussina gets a short shrift - no domination in the playoffs. What about Schilling with 2 dominant performances? Late start to career and people don't like him. That matters, shouldn't, but does.
Piazza's HoF induction was imminent when he was one of the only guys to see his vote go up last year, just has to wait a year.
Bagwell's rise is surprising and really shows that some people are "punishing" guys with PED connections, not keeping them out but making them wait. I suspect those people that worry about Bonds and Clemens getting in shouldn't. I think they'll rise dramatically in their last few years on the ballot.
Raines' rise is also of interest - he was building momentum but there was some question on whether the new 10 year rule was going to squeeze him out, not allowing the slow build to work its course. Turns out it probably just makes the slow build a fast one. I'd expect another rise next year to the mid 60s and then a nail-biting 10th year.
More on Mussina. He did rise a bit but not enough to start to feel good about his chances. Part of this though is timing. Lots of good pitchers now, but not a lot coming down the pike. Next good ones might be Rivera and Hallada in 2019. If you like Halladay (and I think a lot of guys too) Mussina easily had a much better career. I think he'll get in but in year 9/10.
Being seen as a lost cause can hurt you as much as not being worthy. McGwire is dying a slow death but I doubt anyone who voted for him Year 1 (23.5%) thinks he's not worthy now (10%). More likely they are thinking "Why waste a vote, when I can push other names?". Might get a few more votes as ballot clears but not enough. Edgar Martinez suffering the same thing but has a couple more years to play with. Don't think he'll make it though. Sheffield, who's an interesting case, will probably suffer similar fate without a bump next year.
Erstad and Gordon both got stupid votes.