Nationals Baseball: Rumors rumors rumors

Thursday, December 10, 2015

Rumors rumors rumors

Nats want Mike Leake

What Mike Leake is, is young (turned 28 about a month ago), durable, and a starter with limited wear and tear. As far as good bets to give you what you expect for the duration of a contract go, Mike Leake is about as good a bet as you can make. What you expect, though, may vary. He's had fairly average results and the fancy stats that back that up and suggest he might have even been lucky to be average. He doesn't do anything particularly well, but nothing particularly poorly. If you like him, think maybe he can get a bit better, you've got a #3 type pitcher for the next 5 years. If you don't like him, think he might lose that luck as he passes over his peak, then you've got a #5 type. But like I said - you've likely got him for 30+ starts a year which is more valuable than we give credit for.

Nats sign Yusmiero Petit

With Petit you get a Craig Stammen type. Middle innings, reliable, former starter so can go multiple innings. You also get Craig Stammen costs though as he comes at 2.5 million. But he's Craig Stammen 2014 (ok), not Craig Stammen 2012-13 (very good!), or at least that's the best guess of what he is. Petit has wavered between starter and reliever since coming into the league. Perhaps with a focus on relief for a few years he will blossom. Perhaps. All the Nats are really looking for with Petit is average, consistent innings. Don't blow up in big spots. He's been in his share in SF and he's been... average! So good.

Mets get Walker for Neise

Makes the Mets better than they were a day ago. Walker has more patience and power than Muprhy (don't let the post-season fool you on Muprhy's power) but Murphy is a better pure hitter, making more contact and hitting 30-40 points higher than you'd expect from Walker. That is enough to even out any difference. Walker is a better fielder but in the "Murphy is bad, Walker is not bad" way. Neise is a fine pitcher. If you buy into last year than it's probably a bad deal for Pittsburgh, but if you think he's more like previous years, or even in-between than the Pirates get their own Mike Leake, with two team options to keep him on the team. For the Nats it makes their current rival a bit tougher than the day before, but it's not the big move we're worried about.

Mets sign Asdrubal Cabrera

You know Asdrubal. He's ok! He can hit ok, and he's not terrible in the field. Is he better than Wilmer Flores? Yes a little. If it's just a little why bring him in? Well, Flores did just break a bone and if you don't bring someone in and he suffers a set back the Mets are back to having the black hole of Ruben Tejada hitting. With this and the Walker deal the Mets haven't made themselves any better per se, but they've set up a situation where its hard to see them being terrible again on offense without massive injury issues. (thosse do happen!)

20 comments:

G Cracka X said...

Harper, what's your take on Shawn Kelley? Nats are getting him too, right?

JW said...

If you assume that Max and Stras/Giolito are going to be your 1 and 2 pitchers for the next several years, Gio will move between the 3 and 5 spots as his contract moves into its final years, and Joe Ross can be good enough to be either be a 3 or 4 spot pitcher, then a deal for Leake is a decent idea given his age and stability, depending on the price. Because he'd essentially be a back of the rotation guy for many years. So it's not terrible. But I imagine the Nats will find that the cost is too high for that level of pitcher.

Harper said...

GCX - Kelley is a gamble. He had been average for 3 years and 2 months, then BAM, all of a sudden one of the best relievers in baseball. Luck? Flipped switch? Either way it's a good gamble IMO. You aren't likely to get bad pitching from him, maybe bad results but not bad pitching, so there's no real downside to a short deal and the upside is there. We'll talk more once details released.

JW - Exactly. He fits a role and then the Nats can worry about other things. Of course Roark could fit that role for a fraction of the price. Which sets up a conundrum. You don't bring someone in - you lack depth (see AJ Cole, AAAA starter). You do bring someone in - Roark becomes depth - showed issues going back and forth last year. 2nd issue is probably better one to have, especially for a team hamstrung to add $ during the year.

Zimmerman11 said...

The Nationals had interest in a trade involving Carlos Gonzalez of the Rockies at one point, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. There is currently nothing brewing between the two teams, however.


Who's it take to get that done, Harper? Everyone worthwhile on the Nats' farm and Michael Taylor? For two years of CarGO?

Zimmerman11 said...

The Nationals had interest in a trade involving Carlos Gonzalez of the Rockies at one point, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. There is currently nothing brewing between the two teams, however.


Who's it take to get that done, Harper? Everyone worthwhile on the Nats' farm and Michael Taylor? For two years of CarGO?

Harper said...

Z11 - not all that but some sort of "here's everyone not named Giolito and Turner" because the remainder of Nats prospects are tepid and someone would outbid that talent on the usual 2 prospects + some other stuff bids that might come up.

Now, if you go into the majors you could trade Ross and get it done. People love that guy. (more than me I might add) but I don't see that happening.

blovy8 said...

Harper, I would be surprised if the Rockies took your deal. That is not an onerous contract any more. Sure, they'd like to save money, and can be pretty sure of having an OF hit about like that if they replaced him. But away from Coors, he's just about average on an above-average deal. It'll take some options coming off the board. For the Nats, he works, but for the Rockies, why would they accept lottery tickets? Maybe if we were the D-Backs and didn't understand prospects...

Fries said...

Escobar out, now the Nats desperately need to make a move for MI help. But at this point, trading for someone suitable is going to cost more than Rizzo I think will want to give up...

blovy8 said...

Rizzo wouldn't have moved Escobar if something else wasn't going to happen. I will admit that Gott is not all that impressive as a return for a guy that cost an expensive setup man in Clippard, but there IT that monetary feature to this.

blovy8 said...

IS, not it, sorry

Froggy said...

blovy8, seems like CarGo likes hitting at Nats park...I was at a couple games of the Rockies series last year and didn't he blast (and I mean crush) four homers against us? I hope we get the guy if for nothing else, to give Bryce some Lefty breathing room.

John C. said...

Trading Escobar would clearly mean that the Nationals are comfortable with starting Trea Turner, and quite possibly Danny Espinosa, to start the season.

I think CarGo would certainly be able to hit (I've seen reports that suggest that one reason H/R splits are so stark for the Colorado players isn't just that they are advantaged by Coors Field - they are disadvantaged when they play on the road because they aren't used to hitting curves and sliders that actually, you know, break). My concern with CarGo is that he can't stay healthy. Look at his career - last year was the first time in his career he's played more than 145 games, and over the seven years of his career he has averaged about 108 games a season. It strikes me as odd that a solution for a season torpedoed by injuries to key players would be addressed by ... picking up another 30+ injury prone player.

JE34 said...

And the Shawn Kelley deal is done, per ESPN.

JW said...

I'm much higher on Ross than I am on Roark. I am just not sold. I really want to be wrong because he seems like a real good guy.

I am kind of surprised they couldn't get more for Yunel. But at least that moves Rendon back to third.

Fries said...

Nats apparently the mystery team on Heyward. You make that move and Bryce is gone, no way we can afford Heyward, Scherzer, and Bryce all at once

cass said...

There's no hard salary cap is baseball. Of course we can afford Heyward, Scherzer, and Bryce all at once. Strasburg too.

I believe Washington is one of the top 5 wealthiest metro areas in the country and the Nats have the second-wealthiest owners in baseball.

Froggy said...

As much as I like spending the Lerner's money, $200M for anyone is a lot of money. That said, as much as I like the idea of a CarGo mashing 30-40 into the seats I would rather have a GG Heyward who is younger and more resilient.

Bryce, MAT and Heyward in the outfield sounds pretty nice.

Zimmerman11 said...

And.... all of a sudden we're players for Cargo or Heyward!?!? This is so much more fun than rooting for the Expos!

Blogger said...

If you need your ex-girlfriend or ex-boyfriend to come crawling back to you on their knees (even if they're dating somebody else now) you got to watch this video
right away...

(VIDEO) Have your ex CRAWLING back to you...?

Blogger said...

There's shocking news in the sports betting world.

It's been said that any bettor must watch this,

Watch this now or quit betting on sports...

Sports Cash System - Robotic Sports Betting Software.