Wooo! And the whole season just got alot easier with that Mets loss, right!
Well it still counts!
Friday I did my season prediction (90 wins - no playoffs). I'm fine being wrong and expect all of you to remind me of that come October. Onus on you!
How did the rest of the pundit picks shake out over the weekend?
ESPN had 31 experts pick : 17 had the Nats winning the East, another 10 had then in a Wild Card slot. Three had them in the World Series and 1, good ol' Eno Harris had them winning it all.
SI had a mere 7 experts pick : only one had the Nats winning the East, 3 more had the Nats in the Wild Card. One had them in the Series and winning it, Mr. Ben Reiter - from the WC spot, no less.
Fox had 5 experts pick, along with the fans and Twit-lebrity Old Hoss Radbourn. One had the Nats winning the East, 3 more in the Wild Card. No World Series appearance here.
Yahoo had 6 experts pick. Two NL East titles, three Wild Cards, two NLCS appearances, 1 World Series appearance and titlle from Mr. Israel Fehr.
CBS with 5 experts. 1 Division win, 3 Wild Cards, no WS appreance.
NBC Sports Hardball talk chimed in 2 - no division titles or Wild Cards.
Anyone else? USA Today? Sure!
USA Today had 7 experts. 5 NL East titles, 1 WC, 1 NLCS appearance. That's it.
So adding that all up....carry the 7....
That's 65 total pundit guesses from these major sports outlets. 27, or 41%, had them winning the East. That pretty much follows what everyone thinks. The Mets, who have to be around 59%, are favored, but the Nats have more than a punchers chance to win. It's generally seen as an either/or situation with the Mets with a slight edge.
Another 23 have the Nats making the playoffs through the WC slot, bringing the total that have the Nats in the playoffs to about 77%. Most people think the Nats are good. Good teams usually make the playoffs... but not always. The Nats have a better chance of making it than not, but at a "not making it" guess rate of around 23% it's not a trivial chance that they miss it completely. That feels right, too, at least in terms of the vibes I'm getting from the season start. If the Nats can't win the East they can win the WC. These guys even think they probably will win the Wild Card in that case (60% rate in this situation). But if something derails them from a division title, it could be big enough to knock them out entirely. Or hell it could just be a tough year to get in.
About 7.5% have the Nats in the series with less than 5% having them win it all. The Nats are good, and generally looked at as a playoff team, but picking them to have the type of playoff success needed for a WS title is hard, given their recent past. Still they are in it, and they are talented, so if you are looking for a team to pick to make you stand out, the Nats are not a bad choice.