Nationals Baseball: Nothing Happened - But I can still fill a post!

Tuesday, January 03, 2017

Nothing Happened - But I can still fill a post!

Hey! We're back so let's talk about what happened in the two weeks we've not been talking about the Nationals!

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It's not only been a quiet period for the Nats. It's ben a quiet period for baseball. I'm pretty sure Daniel Hudson was signed before we shut it down for Christmas so after that...

Clay Buchholz was traded to the Phillies.  Does this make the Phillies better? Yes, but probably not as much as you think. I do love AL -> NL moves and Bucholz has had some really good years so there's potential there but the most likely scenario is he's fine and eats up necessary front of the rotation innings for the cost of a few dollars and a nothing prospect. Could the Phillies then surprise? Probably not. They were bad in all aspects of the game, so even if their young starting pitching comes together around Bucholz and Hellickson, they still have to solve the pen and get some real offense toghether. I like them for no more than 75 wins. That puts them out of surprise range. They are at least a year away, probably more.

Ivan Nova signed with the Pirates.  Good for him. If he pitches like he did in Pittsburgh last year, it's a steal and the Pirates are still in the thick of things.  I like the Pirates to be better than 2016 even trading Cutch. I feel they caught some bad breaks last year and there's potential for that offense.

Encarnacion signs with Cleveland. Hey did you know Mike Napoli had sleep apnea? Encarnacion is younger and better than Nap. This should help them keep pace with the Red Sox and starts putting gaps between them and the rest of the Central on paper. 

Inciarte extends with Braves.  He's a bit of a slappy Joe, but a good slappy Joe, with great fielding and very good speed. The defense is a big thing because the Braves are still going to play Kemp in a corner. Part of the Braves rebuild. So could the Braves then surprise? Maybe actually. If Dansby Swanson is an immediate impact bat then with Kemp they are immediately a much better offensive team (5th best offense in Aug, best in Sept). The olds will have to come through for them in the rotation, but they threw a lot of terrible junk out there last year. Dickey and Colon should allow them to only put out, if not good arms, then arms worthy of a look.  I think the Braves will be .500 ish and that means they have a shot to surprise. 

Tigers re-sign Avila.  I don't have anything to say about this but it's what passes for news during this dry time.

Angels sign Revere. One year deal - 4 million.  It was a good thought bringing in Revere (while at the same time unloading Storen). You'd be blind not to see the consistency that led you to believe that at worst he would be "not awful" at the plate and good everywhere else. But then he got injured and presumably never really got healthy and that was that. Revere is not really a player who was very good at a lot. He had no power or patience. His D was allright. His speed is very good, but if he's not hitting singles he's not getting on base and thus his speed is meaningless. Basically that left him as a contact hitter. A bunter, move the guy over type. That's a dime a dozen in the minors. Turned out as bad as it could have. So is it a bad signing? Not at all. As a gamble on a fourth OF I think it's real smart. Off the bench his speed can be used at your discretion. For the Angels he can play a corner OF position (presumably LF) late in the game where he'd probably be perfectly fine. And again - that contact bat is useful off the bench. This is all if he's not healthy.  If he is and can be the.290 contact hitter - even better. That's a very good plug and play guy when the inevitable injuries happen.

Brian Dozier's name floated out there. It would fit, despite what some might think. You have to bench Zimm but hey - you probably should bench Zimm. If he can hit his way back then that's a good problem to have. You want good problems, not bad ones, which is what the Nats very likely could have if Zimm can't hit. However if what I see is true - the Dodgers offered at least Jose DeLeon tstraight up for him - I don't think the Nats can match that.  It would have to be Robles plus and I don't see the Nats making Dozier the player to trade Robles for. Note that even if the Dodgers don't get Dozier (and they probably will) the other likely landing spots aren't good for the Nats either. The Cardinals, Giants, and Braves have all been mentioned.

16 comments:

Chas R said...

I just don't feel the Nats have had much of an impact so far in the Hot Stove. Maybe they didn't need to do much and the trade fir Eaton is enough. It would be awesome if they got Dozier as I think that would make me feel more comfortable... because it's really all about me.

NotBobby said...

Well Drew Storen isnt coming back. Would like to see another arm. Holland, Logan, Blanton, Neftali, Castillo, Romo.

Who do you like at what price Harper? I think i like Holland on two year or Neftali.

Harper said...

Chas R - Lots more talk then action but getting Eaton was bigger than you think. It's arguably the second most valuable contract for someone that switched teams. (Possibly 2nd most valuable player but I won't go that far - lots of arguments here)

Not Bobby - I'd have to look at it a bit more. My immediate thought is Logan but I'll get back to that/

NotBobby said...

Logan is my fave too, but i think he is looking for three or four years. I do not want him for that long of a contract.

blovy8 said...

Yeah, Rizzo would have to REALLY like one of those relievers to give him three years, which probably eliminates Logan. Shawn Kelley is a notable exception to that rule. I hate to think that Stephen Drew is the domino that has to fall before they decide how much to spend on the bullpen, as they should want to get a decent option soon, even if its not the ultimate target necessarily. I'd settle for someone at the Belisle level.

Do you suppose the velocity drop for Howell is the thing that spiked his ERA? He never relied on that, but even sinker guys can't drop too far down. Knuckle curve not as effective? Seems like a lot of his other numbers were close to usual, and he'd be a decent buy-lower (well, less than 6M a year...) loogy in that case. I guess that depends on your attitude about Solis if he and Perez are LH in the pen already. I'm not against stretching Solis back out again as starter in AAA especially if Cole becomes the long man, and there are only AAAA-type guys along with Voth for SP depth.

Jay said...

I say sign Weiters. Package Severino with others for Robertson as CWS. Or sign Greg Holland. I'd prefer Holland over trading more players. Whatever you do, please don't leave the bullpen as is. I trust Rizzo. This is usually when he is at his best. When things are seemingly fairly quiet. Dozier would be interesting bc that would mean Zim becomes a utility guy at 1b and LF.

NotBobby said...

Jay- i really hope Rizzo doesn't sign Wieters. He is a league average bat, good thrower (but coming off TJ) and bad framer. I read an article on fangraphs (i think) which made a pretty good argument that good pitch framers benefit the most from good framing.

Plus, i like Severino and i want him for the long haul.

NotBobby said...

*good pitchers benefit the most from good pitch framers. Scherzer and Stras deserve good framers for their long contracts.

Hursty said...

Anyone see Bryce Harper's comments on Twitter to Clint Frazier? I'm calling it now - Harper signs with the Nats because the Yankees won't let him keep his beloved beard.

Jay said...

I think Bryce ends up on one of the two LA teams before the Yankees. I don't think the facial hair policy will keep him out of New York if they offer the most money. I just saw that the Nats are one of 6 teams to not sign anyone for over $3 million. Arbitrary number, but it has been a Danny Espinosa kind of offseason. Lots of swinging for the fences and missing. I don't see how the Nats are all in for the last two years of Bryce and they look to be starting the year with Treinen as their closer. Makes zero sense to me. Plus that Eaton deal continues to stink to me. They way over paid. I trust Rizzo, but it's been a tough offseason.

I don't disagree with notBobby on Severino. I think he has promise, but I do think DC needs some right handed power. Looks like they are banking on Zim bouncing back. Sounds like a long shot. Also, seems like they are doing the every other ignore the bullpen thing. Remember a few years back when they didn't have a single lefty in the pen? But it was going to be ok bc of Clippard's reverse splits.

Still holding out hope they have a few more moves up their sleeve.

Bjd1207 said...

OK here' something I've been knocking around for a few days if anyone has thoughts on it:

I'd like to see the Nats sign some veteran, lefty, 1B/LF platoon player. Given the market for power hitters this offseason I think we could nab one at a relatively cheap price, and it gives us a huge insurance blanket for either of our 2 old guys. I feel much better about going into the season with Zimm and Werth at 1B/LF knowing that we'd have a guy like Brandon Moss, Luis Valbuena, Colby Rasmus, or some guy like that waiting in the wings in case Zimm/Werth collapse.

What do you guys think? Too expensive for a bench/platoon player? Trust Zimm and Werth?

NotBobby said...

Bjd - i love the thought of a lefty 1b/lf like that but i think it may be too rich and i think they will not like the bench role. If Zimm rebounds and Werth stays healthy then there are not many atbats and i think they will want the atbats and may take less elsewhere to do it. But love the thought!

Bjd1207 said...

Yea I hadn't really considered playtime breakdowns if all 3 stay healthy/productive, that'll certainly impact the decision making

Would you rather be a bench/platoon player on a contender or an everyday starter for...like...the Angels or something? There's gotta be SOME guys looking at their remaining years and deciding the former right?

Josh Higham said...

I think the Nats are probably more interested in keeping Bryce long term than it looks like. It makes sense to want nothing to do with extension talks for 400 million right now. His future value is incredibly variable. If last year he was hurt and 2015 is the real baseline, then even with the new "not a cap" luxury tax policies, he very well might be worth 400 over 13 years and the Nats might pony it up. But if he's going to be hurt more often than not hurt (or 2015 was an all around anomaly), he's worth more like Heyward money/years. When he hits free agency in 2018 (including if he gets traded for picks before that), I bet the Nats will make a competitive offer, and if Bryce insists on a contract larger than his major league career justifies, let him go elsewhere.

I do think the beard matters a little bit, but probably less than pulling bombs over the short porch. A competitive offer from a team in a hitter's park that will let Bryce do his style thing could be enough to keep him out of pinstripes.

Josh Higham said...

The assumption I'm making above is that 6/7 years of Bryce is enough to establish a fairly true market value even if his performance is up and down. One great year and one decent one makes 2 great, 2 good, and a handful of decent seasons. Probably suggests an up and down career. 2 years at 2015 level (or near it) establishes elite status. 2 more good but not exceptional years probably says you're going to get mostly good and once in a while great play. Right now it seems like everyone (including the Nats) is unsure what to expect from him.

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