Can the Nats last?

The Nats are in a better position than every other team not named Houston. They have a sizeable lead (7.5 games as of this morning). They are well over .500 (14 games). They had five players named to the all-star game and it could easily wind up being seven when it's all said and done. Yet things don't feel as good as they should. Why? Well yes, the pen but it's more than just that, isn't it?

Part of that is the fact 1/3rd of the Opening Day lineup is out for the forseeable future.  Trea Turner, Jayson Werth, and Adam Eaton are all on the DL and won't be back soon. Werth, the earliest likely return will probably be post-All-Star break. Turner might be back in late August. Eaton is done for the year. We're now down to Stephen Drew, Michael Taylor, and Brian Goodwin, which has worked out just fine but feels like a house of cards. This is especially true with the Nats catcher situation degrading to one of the worst in the big leagues as Wieters has become his worst plausible case (well below average in all aspects) and Lobaton has apparently died. RIP Jose.

Part of the fact is that the Nats can't seem to catch a break with the rotation depth. Gio followed up some luck in the early months with some honest to God good pitching in the last one to keep his stats up and his surprising season going. This should have given the Nats a 4 deep rotation at least. But at the same time the clock might have struck midnight on Roark as he's become incredibly hittable. Maybe Joe Ross is ready to turn the corner. He just delivered his first back to back decent games all season. But if not the Nats find themselves 3 deep in July when being 3 deep in October last year was a problem

Part of the fact is that these things have combined to make the Nats play mediocre baseball for a good couple months now.  A hot start got the Nats to 21-9 by May 6th.  Since then they've been 27-25. That's two months of 84 win ball. If we look at the past month it gets worse. The Nats were 34-19 on June 2nd. That means they've been under .500 for the past 30 days going 14-15 in that time frame.

This has all been hidden by the fact the NL East is the NL East.  From May 6th to Jun 22nd the Mets went 17-26.  From May 6th to June 16th the Braves went 18-20. From May 6th to May 27th the Marlins went 5-13 and are on a recent 6-9 stretch. From May 6th to Jun 21st the Phillies went 10-31.  The Nats spun their wheels in the mud but the rest of the league slid down the hill.  You'll notice thought that for the Mets and Braves the bad stretches don't stretch to today. They've been better recently and that means finally, after 6 weeks of playing .500 type ball and GAINING on the rest of the division, the Nats finally are losing ground.

The Nats are "only" 7.5 up now which is both a big lead for this time of year and their smallest lead since before Memorial Day. If the Braves (currently the 2nd place team) make up two more games it'll be the Nats' smallest lead since all the way back on May 10th. The Nats have lost 5 games in the standings in about a month. At that pace they would get caught in September.

We've said continuously the Nats are a very good to great team but the reality is they haven't played very good baseball for 7 weeks now.  If you want to be generous you can blame any number of things. The injuries. The pen and its psychological effects. The schedule, as we talked about a bunch earlier, has been a bear since before Memorial Day. But with 3 games versus the Mets and four versus the Braves starting tonight at home there's no more time for excuses. If the Nats want to keep the rest of the year boring they need to win these series. 2-1 over the Mets, 3-1 over the Braves will likely put the division lead back over 10 games leading into a much more favorable month of games versus some weaker squads with plenty of off days.

The Turner injury alone didn't change my feelings. I still think as these teams are constructed the Nats have it. But I also think we are at a tipping point now where one more injury to the Nats or a big acquisition by the Mets/Braves could change things. A 10+ game lead though, with a light schedule coming up through August 21st, that might be injury/acquisition proof. So do it damn it.


Side Note :
I added active stadiums #21 and #22 to my collection hitting KC and STL this past weekend. I've also seen games at 6 defunct stadiums. Both were actually pretty nice. I'd have to go with KC if forced to choose but it was closer than I thought. STL is definitely a cookie cutter in the model of the new stadium but it's a fine cookie. There isn't anything I can point to that's wrong. It may grow to be a stronger selection if the downtown of STL picks up a bit more. KC is off in the ouskirts in a parking lot with Arrowhead situation, but with the open bowl and the fountains and huge scoreboard it is just more unique. Both could use a bit of work in local food flavor. It would pay big dividends for KC to play up their ribs (Joe's was AWESOME) as much as possible. For STL... I'm not sure how they do this. KC's beer (mostly Boulevard all over but Boulevard is good) is also better than STL but that's to be expected in what is essentially Budweiser stadium. 

Oh since you'll ask TOR, LAA, OAK, NYM, ATL, LAD, ARI  to go.  Mets and Braves... I won't say I can hit "anytime" but I can certainly have these checked off with not too much effort. Other ones are going to take some planning. Defucnt ones are Yankee, Shea, RFK, Tiger, Turner, Metrodome.

Side note of side note :
I added Presidential Library #6 to my collection visiting HST's. Almost half-way there as there are 13 official ones currently. These are not all conveniently located though so it'll take more doing to get this done.

And since you'll ask I've hit FDR, HST, LBJ, GRF, JEC, RWR and yes I do know all their middle names off the top of my head. I visit Presidential Libraries for fun.