The Mets aren't going to pass the Nats in the standings. This shouldn't be surprising but I guess in some ways we are always looking for the path to failure.
The Mets lost Monday's game more than the Nats won it. Although we should all tip the hat to Strasburg for pitching like he did. Honestly though, when it comes down to the Nats bullpen versus anyone else's bullpen the Nats should lose. However, Terry Collins left super effective LOOGY Jerry Blevins (.155 / .211 / .169 vs LHB this year) in to face MAT. Trouble is MAT bats right-handed and Blevins is .343 / .489 / .686 vs RHB this year. Yeah MAT's homer is in there but I hope you can see it was a bad idea. Few pitches later MAT homers, Nats have a cushion that they can blow, which of course they do, without losing the game. Then when a big out is needed Collins goes with Fernando Salas (Curently sporting a 6.31 ERA) instead of Addison Reed (2.59) because Reed is the closer and the Nats win! MVP Terry Collins!
Yesterday the Nats won it. Ross didn't pitch well* but got a lot of luck and his typical 40 runs of support. Yes Difo got a couple of hits, and everyone contributed but really it was Bryce going 3-4 with a walk and Murphy going 4-5 that did it. When the stars hit like stars that's usually enough.
The Mets are now 11.5 games out. Because I like these things - if the Nats go .500 the rest of the year, they will finish 89-73. The Mets would have to go 52-27 to finish the year to beat that. That's basically having the best July, August, and September in the majors. You see that? I don't see that regardless of what happens tonight.
So that leaves the Braves (9 GB) as the last man standing. They too pretty much have to win the series against the Nats though. After this week there will be only 6 H2H games between the two teams left. If the Braves are too far out the combination of things that have to happen outside of those games just might be too great.
In trade deadline news - the Tigers are ready to be sellers, putting Verlander out there. They'll even eat salary for a big enough return. I'm not saying get Verlander but the Nats might be able to pull off something for say Justin Wilson then. Although he's almost certainly a complimentary piece. Alex Wilson (Very good before this year) would also be an interesting target in the same vein. The Tigers don't really have the ideal player for the Nats in this scenario though - a veteran reliever with a contract they'd eat. They actually don't have any high paid relievers period. Contract wise the best starter piece they have is Anibal Sanchez, but he's been terrible for over a year now. I don't see the point in that. Maybe Alex Avila for back-up? He's not particularly great but he's cheap and better than Lobaton.
On the flipside - the Blue Jays are not ready to sell, or more realistically it makes more sense based on contracts to see what happens early next year. It'll be easier to deal vets like Martin and Tulo with another year of salary gone. Donaldson- teams getting him will lose a year but the value gotten back will probably wash out if he can be healthy and hit. Honestly it's only a Happ deal that'll probably suffer for waiting a year. Short of it - no Osuna for the Nats.
Braves series - then hopefully nothing but more trade talk.
*Don't even try to say 8 hits, 3 walks, 2 homers is good, even in 7 innings. Any one watching that game saw it was a 5 runs in 5 IP affair saved by a lack of timely hitting by the Mets.
16 comments:
Ross was rather mediocre. He gave up two solo shots (on TERRIBLE pitches) and left two men on base for at least the first four innings. He did throw some good pitches with guys on base, but one bloop that falls in (like Harper's first hit) and the whole tenor of the game changes. His slider was devastating when it worked, and awful when it didn't.
I wouldn't get too excited about winning with Difo, Lobaton and Raburn. In particular, Difo is a weak hitter, no power, and he can't bunt. If you hit for low average and you have speed, you really need to know how to bunt. Difo is terrible at bunting. He's not a good baserunner either. I will give him credit for fine defense. Lobaton needs to be replaced. Sure, he's a decent defensive catcher and he seems to be a great guy, but his hitting is woefully bad. Will we see Severino in September, and then for the playoffs? MAT is hitting well, but he is NOT a leadoff hitter.
Harper: I got a few comments. First, I thought Ross pitched well for half the game and bad for half. He was ok. He wasn't bad or great. Second, when you say "any pen vs Nats Nats should lose".....I beg to differ! The Mets are the only bullpen that arguably is worse in the league! Third, look I have to say it. I've been a doubter of MAT, but his value and talent outlook have indisputably gone up this year. By fWAR he's been worth 2 WAR already. That's more than Werth in any of last few years. The fact is he's a plus defend in CF who is slugging .500 over half a season and stealing some bases. That player profile is a good player for anybody hitting .250 or above/.300 OBP or above. Let's give him his due! I now see a possible* future where he is more than a 4th outfielder....a guy whose defense pop and speed make up for a low OBP and high K rate. Is the star his stat line would currently suggest? No I don't think so. But he's also probably a better player than we thought he was.
The development of MAT, if it continues, would be of enormous benefit to the Nationals. Next year, the starting outfield could be MAT in center, Harper in right, Eaton in left, Goodwin as the back-up. Werth's contract expires. The Nats will have some big $$ to spend on something other than an outfielder if MAT is up to the task. Nats obviously need bullpen help, and it might be time to lock in a good catcher. I believe that all 5 starting pitchers are under contract for next year. Gio's player option locks in if he pitches 180 innings, which is a lock unless he gets injured. (Amazingly, Gio is top 10 in innings pitched among NL pitchers). And anyhow, the Nats would exercise their option at $12 million for Gio -- who is worth at least $15 - $18 million.
I tweeted that Ross was looking a like a 4 IP, 5 ER--glad I was wrong. He got lucky early--Bruce just missed a 2nd homer in the 1st inning, Duda missed a run-scoring double by a couple of feet, at most. No Ross wasn't good, but sometimes you just need to be good when you have to be. In the 3rd with two on, made some great pitches to Duda to K him on 3 pitches, before getting Flores on a groundout. Same with Rivera in the 5th--who took Ross deep the inning before. He's improved quite a bit his last 5 or 6 starts.
Potomac Fan: the problem is that if Gio had his way he would definitely opt out/hit the market, since he is probably worth about 15m a year not 12. So there's a perverse situation where it's sort of not in his interest to make it to 180. And it's not a lock at all that he will make it. It will probably be pretty close.
@BxJaycobb: Gio has pitched 107.1 innings in 17 starts, an average of 6.1 innings per start. He likely has 15 starts remaining this year. (He has missed very few games in his career, which is another plus for him.) So, he needs 73 innings to make 180 -- less than 5 innings per start. Bottom line: if he stays healthy, he should reach 180 innings.
Now, can you or Harper please clarify Gio's contract? I've looked all over the web and still cannot quite find the answer. If Gio pitches 180 innings, he has a player option to come back in 2018 at $12 million. But do the Nats have a team option to bring him back? If not, can Gio just walk? Because he will get more than $12 million, and he can get a multi-year contract -- which would be especially valuable to him coming off what has been a very good year so far.
@PotomacFan
from what I can gather, I think it is indeed a player option. So I think he could test the market, but I'm not 100% sure.
Potomac - Gio has no option to break the contract. If he hits 180 IP he automatically gets that final year for 12 million. If he does not then the Nats have the option to bring him back for 2018 for that cost.
I think it was misreported early on but I see no current stories that suggest Gio has any say in the contract.
Its great that one year later, we want Gio to come back for '18. I believe last season, there was a lot of talk around 'Little Gio' replacing 'Big Gio' in the rotation, and some kvetching around Gio getting the '18 option vested if the Nats did exercise the '17 option and he managed to pitch 180 innings in '17. Now he looks like a bargain!
On another topic, MAT now has more fWAR than Zimm, who is a starting 1B NL All-Star. Not saying MAT is an all-star, but just found that interesting. Glad MAT is having a good season so far.
Let me start off by saying I have no stats to back this up. I'm just going off what I see when I watch the games and I do watch most of them. MAT still does K a bit too much. However, it seems that he is swinging less at bad pitches. He used to be a 3-pitch K waiting to happen, but not so much anymore. It looks as though he is recognizing pitches that are out of the zone much better and has picked up more walks in the last couple of weeks. I believe this could very well be a long-term improvement and boosts his chances of being the starting CF in 2018.
They're skipping Roark's start, I see. Probably for the best. Here's hoping some extra rest helps him get his groove back.
He will get a long rest because of the All-Star break. I'm pretty sure Dusty will use Joe Ross for the Sunday game, although Dusty says he has not decided. I think he's just trying not to make Roark feel any worse.
Chris: I gotta say....I totally agree with u....and yet if u go to fangraphs and look at his plate discipline and contact stats, it's all just as bad or worse as earlier years. Swinging outside zone more, swinging in zone less, making less contact overall, striking out just as much. So I have no earthly idea what's up. But his ABs are definitely not as bad as they used to be just from watching.
The season has come to this: Michael A Taylor going to the 10-day DL is a nontrivial blow. This is bizarre. It's a major testament to the 40-man roster Rizzo put together though, that this offense should still be pretty good even with 4 productive bats out.
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