Starting Offensive Targets

There's a lot of starting pitchers out there! As a break to myself we'll go over the offensive players the Nats could go after first. The same rules apply to today as yesterday.  The big difference between relief pitchers and offensive players is that young, good, contract controlled offensive players that have already played in the majors are rarely offered up in trade outside of rentals. That's doubly true mid-season.  That means the guys available are usually either old, expensive, or both and also still cost a fair amount in prospects. It doesn't mesh well with the Nats trading philosophy.  I believe the best mid-season Rizzo offensive deal was for Kurt Suzuki.

Why is this? Because offensive players are generally more impactful and more reliable. That makes them the players you build around. Relief pitchers are not that. Having a relief problem is bad, but it is solvable through mid-season trade. That can't always be said about offensive problems*

Catchers
Alex Avila & Kurt Suzuki - Hey! Suzuki! Both these guys are FAs next year and making next to nothing baseball-wise in 2017 (2M and 1.2M) Alex Avila is having his best year in a long while and is vastly intriguing because he may be a product of the "launch angle era" He's a player who has always hit the ball hard, and because of it has always had a good BABIP. But being a slow catcher anything on the ground that could be reached was sure to be an out. This year he's hitting far fewer GBs (and striking out less). Of course like any good ballplayer Avila believes that he's just hitting fewer ground balls than he ever has in his career because he's healthy.  Sound familiar? If it's real you got yourself a great C bat. Defensively he's good behind the plate but has gone down as a framer in a way that you probably buy it being real. Suzuki is also having a minor resurgence but his is less revelatory. He's hitting more flyballs and a few more left the park than usual. Since he doesn't seem to be hitting the ball harder that's probably more luck than a real change. Which means Suzuki isn't a slightly above average bat but a slightly below one which is unsurprisingly what he's been his whole career.

The Nats are committed to Wieters for another season. They have to be, that's the contract. Because of that I don't think they will make a move at catcher.  That's fine as long as Wieters stays healthy. Avila is interesting but a gamble. Suzuki probably isn't much different than Wieters. But Lobaton is a garbage back-up.  Back-ups don't play that much so in theory it doesn't matter but if Wieters goes down the Nats are in big trouble.

Outfield
JD Martinez & Andrew McCutchen & Justin Upton & Melky Cabrera & Jay Bruce & Curtis Granderson & Nick Markakis  - All these guys are expensive. Let's get that out of the way. We're talking contracts over 10 million which makes it unlikely that the Nats will pick these guys up. Another strike against them is that there isn't a slick fielding CF here,* which is what the Nats need right now if they are going to bother to bring in an outfielder.Why list these guys then? Well because conceivably the Nats could use another OF next year as Werth departs. So grabbing a guy now for then... well it's a classic Rizzo think ahead move. They may like MAT enough not to do this and a Bryce, MAT, Eaton OF would be very solid defensively. Then again a very good and reliable bat might be too much to pass up.

Upton is not coming. He's a good bat and decent enough in the corner but his contract goes on forever. There's no way the Nats will pay it or the Tigers will eat enough of it.  Even though you get him next year and the Braves might eat some salary, Markakis makes little sense as he's not good defensively and only average at the plate. Bruce, Granderson, Martinez, and Cabrera are all rentals who head to FA next year. Martinez is the prize - a very good hitter who's been consistent. Bruce and Granderson are what they are - which is dependable. Cabrera is declining but still better than average. None of them, though, are even pretend CFs so picking them up means shifting Bryce. Martinez is probably the only bat you do that for but as the "best available" he will likely go for a lot to someone more desperate for help.

This leave McCutchen. He can play CF. He has bounced back offensively. He has a team option for 2018.  The Nats had flirted with getting him and not Eaton in the off-season. If If anyone fits it's Andrew. But do I see the Nats doing it? I don't know. I think if the price is right, they could be tempted. Honestly I don't think the price will be too high but I think the Nats will have expended too much toward pitching to really make an honest play here.

Shortstop 
Zack Cozart - It makes sense for the Reds to trade Cozart. He's a FA next year having a career year at 31 out of line with his history. You are trading high on something you very likely won't keep. He's a good defender as well so even if his bat declines in the second half back to his average history you are still getting an overall positive player. Oh, and did I mention he's making relative peanuts (5M) for this package? The good news for the Nats, if they are interested, is that the demand for SSs among contenders is low.** The cost for Cozart should not be pushed up by competing bids unlike starting and relief pitching.

If trading for anything outside of pitching, this is where I see the Nats going toward. You could even stick Trea back in the OF if you needed, when he came back.  All this being said the fit is not perfect. I can see them doing this but only if one of two things happen. They totally strike out getting pitching somehow or Turner is not coming back this season.  Both these things seems unlikely, so even the best starting offensive target remains a stretch for the Nats which is probably for the best.

*That's Lorenzo Cain who's team right now is not ready to give up 
**The same could be said for OFs but you can always stick a McCutchen somewhere or shift your worst fielding OF to DH in the AL.