Nationals Baseball: Who's your G4 starter.

Thursday, September 28, 2017

Who's your G4 starter.

Werth Watch : 1-4 with double, a long out, a walk and 2K. This is fine. Not the dog in the burning building "fine" but actually fine. The "Not asking for much" tour continues in Pittsburgh.

Bryce Watch : 1-4 with a K, SB and 2 GDP.  Carry on.

Robles Watch : DNP, Coach's Decision

I guess the important news from yesterday was that Tanner Roark, in his last start of the season, looked bad. He couldn't find the strike zone (5 walks) and was very hittable giving up two doubles and a triple in his 7 hits in less than 5 innings.

So closes a disappointing 2017 for Tanner, one of the few (the only?) outright disappointments for the Nats that didn't involve injury or the pen. Roark finished the year with with an ERA of 4.59 and he kind of deserved it. He wasn't particularly hard to hit, his control wasn't great, and he gave up a few too many homers. Roark made himself into the #4 starter this season as much as Gio has won the #3 role. If you want to look on the bright side, he was a much better pitcher in the 2nd half (1.450 WHIP to 1.155 WHIP) and if you look at the splits what you generally see is a pretty good pitcher who went off the rails a bit in June.

It's an interesting season in how it matters for the Nats future. There aren't any strong contenders currently in the Nats organization to fill in Roark / Gio 's role let alone help cover for a 33 yo Max and an injury prone Strasburg. Erick Fedde is the closest thing and he's yet to show he can really put it together. Ross was a shifting target even before major injury. That means next year, like last year, it's up to Max, Stras, Gio, and Roark again. There's ways that works out very well, but as we keep moving forward in time we have to admit there are ways that doesn't work out at all. You still would bet on that rotation more than 25+ rotations in the big leagues but that doesn't mean you can't see the potential concerns.

Being specific to 2017. Would you take a chance on Roark in the playoffs? It depends. If the Nats are down 1 game to 2 going into the 4th game, you might not. Going with Max on short rest may seem more prudent in that instance. Last year the situation wasn't the same, the Nats were up 2-1, and that muted any debate. Yes, a few people didn't want to put out the shaky Ross and instead wanted to try to finish the Dodgers with Max. But most fans were perfectly happy taking on a tired Kershaw with Ross and saving a rested Max for Game 5. Rested Max = win in most circumstances right? 

In Dusty's career He's been in 4 other NLDSs that have gone at least 4 games.

In 2000, down 1-2 Dusty chose to go with Mark Gardner instead of going back to his ace Livan who shut down the Mets in G1. It probably wouldn't have mattered - Bobby Jones 1-hit the Giants, but Gardner was not good and they lost.

 In 2002, down 1-2 Dusty again went with his #4 starter, rather than his #1 who won game 1. The situation was different as the #1 Russ Ortiz, didn't dominate, and the #4 Livan was a savvy veteran, but Livan wasn't having a good year and see above. In the end the Giants won as Livan did perfectly fine (3 runs in 8 innings) and the Giants had a 4 run lead on Tom Glavine before the 2nd inning was done. Russ Ortiz and a series of relievers would hold off the Braves in G5.

In 2003, up 2-1 Dusty stuck with his #4, Matt Clement. Clement wasn't a bad pitcher but the Cubs had Wood, Prior and Zambrano at their best. A short-rest Wood must have been at least a little tempting, when you could in theory follow him with short-rest Prior and throw day Zambrano. Dusty didn't bite. Clement was bad, but Wood followed up with the 8-inning fairly dominant performance that Max 13 years later could not.

In 2012, The Reds were up 2-1. They had been up 2-0 and people were starting to look askew at Dusty the playoff manager. He got swept out of the playoffs a couple years back and the lasting memory of the Cubs faltering in 2003 still lingered. Johnny Cueto, the #1 guy, came out after the 2nd batter in G1 because of injury and wouldn't pitch again in the series. Mat Latos, who had a good year and was the planned G3 starter, came in and threw a light 57 pitches in relief. But rather than push him in G4, Dusty went with Mike Leake who had been brought up to replace the injured Cueto. Leake, a middling starter was knocked around in a loss. In G5 a rested Mat Latos pitched poorly and the Reds were out.

The takeaway. I think we're going to see Roark regardless of the situation.Well unless the Nats sweep the Cubs out of the playoffs.

28 comments:

Carl said...

If I had more time maybe I'd try to figure out what impact workload and rest have on Roark. Unless they pitch him out of the bullpen over the weekend, Roark potentially isn't going to pitch in a game until October 10. Will that be a good thing, allowing him to rest up, or will he be rusty and thus ineffective early?

Sammy Kent said...

If we're up 2-1 I let Tanner pitch.....on a VERY short leash. If we're down 2-1, I go back to Max and use Stras in Game 5 if Max can't seal the deal. If we're in an elimination game 4 I don't know how Dusty could justify NOT bringing Max back to pitch it--especially with the inconsistency Tanner has been demonstrating lately. If it were the Tanner Roark of 2014 or 2016 out there, I'd be perfectly fine with him starting and going deep in an elimination Game 4. But not this year.

Anonymous said...

I think I remember from last year, Max himself said he didn't like pitching on short rest. I think, when Max talks managers and management listen, so that wouldn't be an option.

JE34 said...

Zim: 0 for 5, 3 Ks, 7 runners left aboard. UGH.

Without his runback fastball (locks up lefties, in on the hands... and makes righties swing defensively at stuff off the plate away), Tanner is very hittable, especially when he's consistently behind in counts. He is one of my favorite Nats - does whatever the team asks of him, the consummate teammate - but in the postseason, he will need a very short leash. I expect Dusty to start him unless it's an elimination situation.

Ole PBN said...

I don't know of a team with 4 consistent top-end starters in their rotation. The fact that we lead off a series with Max, Stras, and Gio says that we should be up 2-1 worst case scenario. Aside from Kershaw, any one of our top three could be an ace on any team in the NL that qualified for the postseason. Roark has to pitch and we will not advance to the WS, much less beyond the first round, with only 3 starters. We'll need a Jake Peavy-type performance from Tanner. Just 5-6 innings of keeping us in the ballgame and pen will have to take it from there. We are and should be worried about Tanner, but if your 4th starter in a 5-game series is one of our main worries, there's no reason why we shouldn't advance to the next round. Max, Stras, and Gio have to get the job done. It shouldn't come down to Tanner pitching a gem to save our season. If that's the case, our offense, bullpen, or the other SP's didn't do their job.

The streaky offense is my primary concern, although there isn't much to assuage those concerns. My hope is that we put out their the most formidable lineup as possible and don't cater to hurt feelings, invisible ju-ju, team leadership, etc. I heard Thom Loverro on the radio saying the SP's will be the reason we win or lose, which I agree with, but he went a step further and says the offense will be just fine. Our offense has been borderline punchless as a unit, with the exception of guys having a game like Trea Turner did last night. Station-to-station hitting has never been our forte, and to me, has been our downfall. According to Mr. Loverro, because we outscored the Dodgers in last year's NLDS means our guys can hit. This is what Harper has brought up numerous times on this blog that I say "AMEN" to: our offense will explode for 15 runs one game, and then score 1, 2, 0, 1, 1, 0 the next games. That averages under 3 a game. The inconsistency kills us and I'm worried its going to happen this year. We'll see...

Harper said...

Looking into it more - basically being reminded of some discussions from last year - REALLY expect Roark in G4

Dusty doesn't like using pitchers on short rest
Max doesn't like pitching on short rest
Dusty likes listening to veterans, especially those that perform
Max is a veteran who performs

ipso facto - Max ain't pitching G4.

Robot said...

I'm okay with a G4 Tanner start provided he gets a very short leash

PotomacFan said...

Tanner is getting Game 4. End of story. Unless, of course, there is a rained out game.

Looks like Goodwin is going to be the back-up outfielder. I think the Nats have known this for a few weeks, and that would explain why Robles has seen so little playing time.

Severino was awful defensively last night. He may well have shot down his chance to replace Lobaton.

G Cracka X said...

Give Tanner 1-2 times through the order in G4 (if necessary), and then turn it over to the 'pen.

blovy8 said...

For 2018 -how about the Nats give the Tigers a bush league pitcher not in their future plans for Zimmermann and almost all of the money left in his contract. Why not see if he can be fixed? I suppose that deal would depend on how much cash Manfred would allow in a deal.

blovy8 said...

I think Max is going to be maxed out in game one, so it won't matter.

blovy8 said...

There's no reason not to use everyone in game four either if weather doesn't force things to change. OTOH, Roark has a history of making decent adjustments, and I'd rather have that than dubious matchups from relievers who may not be effective.

blovy8 said...

One pitch means a lot in relief situations, 2-1 vs. 1-2, 3-1 vs. 2-2, etc. Whereas, Roark/Wieters might have a better idea of what will or has worked for him the last time through the order rather than expect the reliever to make a quality pitch. As much as Solis gets credit for getting outs behind in the count, he's STILL GETTING BEHIND IN THE COUNT. Can't expect that to work so well against the Cubs, I think.

blovy8 said...

PBN, what happens if the Cubs hitters get our starters out of there in the sixth after they throw 100+ pitches? Then it becomes a bullpen game, which granted, we are better prepared for now, but has less to do with starting pitching. The events become dicier. It's still a fair fight I believe, but I would not be surprised to see the story become our bench.

Jon Quimby said...

If you remove Tanner's problems with control, last night's start wasn't that bad. If you remove last night's game then Tanner has been really good lately. Control problems happened and last night happened, but I am not really that worried about Tanner in game 4. I think last night was more of a badly timed aberration.

BxJaycobb said...

Why do you think Goodwin will be back up? Unless somebody said something I disagree. They're gonna put a guy on the roster who hasn't played a baseball game in like a month plus? Doubt it.

Vince Flowder said...

I have a great deal of confidence in Tanner, to be honest more than I have in Gio. Why? Because Gio is an incredibly frail creature and Tanner is not. Now Gio has performed well this year and I hope that continues so I would of course still keep him as the number 3, but he's also come off the rail a couple of times this year and most recently. I did think Roark didn't get some calls he should have last night, some critical calls, but that's baseball.
My biggest fear right now are the other 8 players, not Tanner. A lot of key injuries have delivered Werth and Harper at the 9th hour. I think playing Harper is of course worth the risk, but I'm not as sold on Werth. Zim looked great the first half and has waned the second, but he could be a liability for two games and hit two dingers to win a 3rd, plus Lind has been so good as a PH that I think Zim starts, although I think platooning for matchups makes too much sense to ignore.
I can't wait for the playoffs to begin, but this is a much different team than the one we amazed at a couple of months ago. If they find that again we'll be playing in October, if they don't, we won't.

Vince Flowder said...

I have a great deal of confidence in Tanner, to be honest more than I have in Gio. Why? Because Gio is an incredibly frail creature and Tanner is not. Now Gio has performed well this year and I hope that continues so I would of course still keep him as the number 3, but he's also come off the rail a couple of times this year and most recently. I did think Roark didn't get some calls he should have last night, some critical calls, but that's baseball.
My biggest fear right now are the other 8 players, not Tanner. A lot of key injuries have delivered Werth and Harper at the 9th hour. I think playing Harper is of course worth the risk, but I'm not as sold on Werth. Zim looked great the first half and has waned the second, but he could be a liability for two games and hit two dingers to win a 3rd, plus Lind has been so good as a PH that I think Zim starts, although I think platooning for matchups makes too much sense to ignore.
I can't wait for the playoffs to begin, but this is a much different team than the one we amazed at a couple of months ago. If they find that again we'll be playing in October, if they don't, we won't.

Ole PBN said...

In regards to the Lind/Zim platoon, Lind's numbers aren't that impressive against the Cub's probable starters: vs. Arrieta (.154), vs. Hendricks (.188), vs. Quintana (.222), and vs. Lester (.103). Although Zim's numbers aren't much better against these guys, I think you just can't sit him with the year he's having. Plus, Lind off the bench is an integral piece to our success. I'd listen to a platoon option for Lind elsewhere in the field, perhaps LF? Just not first base.

Zimmerman11 said...

"If we're down 2-1, I go back to Max and use Stras in Game 5 if Max can't seal the deal."

I hope the Cubs let us play game 5 if we're down 2-1 and Max can't seal the deal too! Double or nothing! Winner take all! :)

Anderson Edward said...

Hello Every One Out Here
I'm From Canada. I really want to tell the whole world what Dr. Iyaryi greatest spell caster done for me this is tears of joy. My wife left to USA last eight months and there after she refused to come home i called and i called and she persisted then instantly i knew something was wrong somewhere i searched for helped from the vertical to horizontal and yet to no avail. I cried and cried but she was not going to come back to me, i keep a search on internet to get suggestions from anywhere that i can then contact and i came across a testimony relating to my case with this email (driayaryi2012@hotmail.com) but to say the fact though i wanted to do anything to have my wife back i still have doubt that this couldn't work cause i don't believe in superstition but i just put a trial by emailing the (driayaryi2012@hotmail.com) The reply i got was striking that my wife had been spellbound by another man, i screamed help but he said not worry and instruct me what to do and i did exactly as i was instructed. to my greatest surprise two days later my wife called and she was crying to me and not knowing what to do i bust into tears too but it was a tears of joy. so i will use this medium to urge every single soul with problem of any kind to try and contact this email. (driayaryi2012@hotmail.com) Dr. Iyaryi is a solution provider. And also Reach him on WhatsApp Number: +2349057915709 Thanks Dr. IyaryI

Unknown said...

We offer certified and verifiable bank instruments via Swift Transmission from a genuine provider capable
of taking up time bound transactions.

FOR LEASING OF BG/SBLC
MINIMUM FACE VALUE OF BG/SBLC = EUR/USD 1M
LEASING FEE = 4%+2%

FOR PURCHASE OF FRESH CUT BG/SBLC
PRICE = 32%+2%
MINIMUM FACE VALUE OF BG/SBLC = EUR/USD 1M

Our BG/SBLC Financing can help you get your project funded, loan financing by providing you with yearly
renewable leased bank instruments. We work directly with issuing bank lease providers, this Instrument can be monetized on your behalf for 100% funding: For further details contact us with the below information.

Contact: Name: WARREN GARY

Email: inquiry.barkerfinancial@gmail.com

Skype: inquiry.barkerfinancial@gmail.com

Patrick Mc Brearty said...

We are Ireland based major/Direct providers of Fresh Cut BG, SBLC, POF, MTN, Bonds and CDs and this financial instruments are specifically for lease and sale.We are one of the leading Financial instrument providers with offices all over Europe.
we always deliver on time and precision as Set forth in the agreement. You are at liberty to engage our leased facilities into trade programs, project financing, Credit line enhancement, Corporate Loans (Business Start-up Loans or Business Expansion Loans), Equipment Procurement Loans (Industrial Equipment, Air crafts, Ships, etc.) as well as other financial instruments issued from AAA Rated bank such as HSBC Bank Hong Kong, HSBC Bank London, Deutsche Bank AG Frankfurt, Barclays Bank , Standard Chartered Bank and others on lease at the lowest available rates depending on the face value of the instrument needed, Our Terms and Conditions are reasonable.

DESCRIPTION OF INSTRUMENTS:

1. Instrument: Bank Guarantee (BG)/SBLC (Appendix A)
2. Total Face Value: 10M MIN to 50B MAX USD or Euro
3. Issuing Bank: HSBC, Deutsche Bank Frankfurt, UBS or any Top 25 .
4. Age: One Year, One Day
5. Leasing Price: 4+ 2%
6. Sale Price: 32+2%
7. Delivery by SWIFT .
8. Payment: MT103-23
9. Hard Copy: Bonded Courier within 7 banking days.

If you have need for Corporate loans, International project funding, etc. or if you have a client that requires funding for his project or business, We are also affiliated with lenders who specialize on funding against financial instruments, such as BG, SBLC, POF or MTN, we fund 100% of the face value of the financial instrument.
Inquiries from agents/ brokers/ intermediaries are also welcomed; do get back to us if you are interested in any of our services and for quality service.

Name : Patrick Mc Brearty

E-mail : patrickmcbrearty007@gmail.com

Skype id : patrickmcbrearty007@gmail.com

Cummins Diarmuid said...

ALGECO GLOBAL FINANCE PLC is a group of company with funding experts and mandate to a finance and investment Company who is a premier provider of trade finance and project finance instruments as well as discountable bank instruments.

We offer Genuine Bank Guarantees, Standby Letter of Credit, Pre Advice / RWA Messages, Documentary Letters of Credit, Bank Draft, Proof of Funds, Performance Bond, Medium Term Notes, and various SWIFT messaging services on lease and sale. We issue these instruments from prime banks, secondary banks, and financial institutions; and transmit SWIFT MT 760, MT 799 and other messages on behalf of our clients.

We offer certifiable and verifiable bank instruments via Swift Transmission from a genuine provider capable of taking up time bound transactions. Kindly contact for genuine inquiries and I can provide you with the needed information.

Leasing Fee = 4% 2%

Purchasing PRICE = 32% 2%



Contact us for more financial services inquiry from our details.

Name :Cummins Diarmuid
Email: info.algecogfplc@gmail.com
Skype ID:info.algecogfplc@gmail.com

Unknown said...

We Offers Financial Consulting To Client, Companies Seeking Debt / Loan Financing And Seeking For Working Capital To Start A New Business Or To Expand Existing Business. Interested Parties Should Contact Us For More Information Through Via E-mail: SuiteCapitals@gmail.com ( SuiteCapitals@post.com )

We Have Loan Programs Tailored For Any Profile And You've Come To The Right Place To Satisfy Your Business Needs. If Your Company Or You Know Of Any Company With Viable Projects / Proposals That Needs Financing, Kindly Write Us With The Loan Requirement. Please, Contact Us For More Information: SuiteCapitals@gmail.com ( SuiteCapitals@post.com )

You Will Hear From Us. Well Nice To Meet You And I look forward to our Business Acquaintance. Interested Parties Should Contact Us For More Information Through Via E-mail: SuiteCapitals@gmail.com ( SuiteCapitals@post.com )

Do You Need A Loan To Consolidate Your Debt At 1.0%? Or A Personal Loans * Business Loans etc. Interested Parties Should Contact Us For More Information Through Via E-mail: SuiteCapitals@gmail.com ( SuiteCapitals@post.com )

Unknown said...

REMEDY TO ALL KIND OF SICKNESS YOU MIGHT HAVE BEEN SUFFERING FROM AND ALSO SPECIALISES IN THE FOLLOWING: Please Kindly Contact Us At Via Email: DrSebiSolutionCenter@gmail.com ( DrSebi@solution4u.com )

Urgent Effective Love Spell - Save You Marriage Fast
If You Want Your Ex-Back - If You Always Have Bad Dreams.
You Want To Be Promoted In Your Office - If Your Work Refuse To Pay You
You Want Women/Men To Run After You - If You Want A Child.
Herbal Care - HIV-AIDS Disease - Do You Have A Low Sperm Count?
If You Are Unable To Satisfy Your Wife Sex Desire Due To Low Err Action

If Your Menstruation Refuse To Come Out The Day It Suppose Or Over Flows.
Cancer Cure - Diabetes Cure - Ringing Ear - Stroke Cure - Warts Cure
HPV Cure - Penis Enlargement - Hepatitis - Genital Herpes - Infections
Virgina Problem - Whooping Cough - Lower Respiratory - Cold Sore
Low Sperm Count - Bareness - Infertility - Staphylococcus Aureus
Zika Virus - Fibroid - Asthma - Tooth Pain - Sickle Cell - Diarrhea E.T.C

Please Kindly Contact Us At Via Email: DrSebiSolutionCenter@gmail.com ( DrSebi@solution4u.com )

Jamesterra said...

We are authorized Financial consulting firm that work directly with
A rated banks eg Lloyds Bank,Barclays Bank,hsbc bank etc

We provide BG, SBLC, LC, LOAN and lots more for client all over the world.

Equally,we are ready to work with Brokers and financial
consultants/consulting firms in their respective countries.

We are equally ready to pay commission to those Brokers and financial
consultants/consulting firms.

Awaiting a favourable response from you.

Best regards
WALSH SMITH, ROBERT
email : info.iqfinanceplc@gmail.com
skype: cpt_young1

Nat Finance said...

We are able to finance your signatory
projects and help you enhance your
business plan. Furthermore, our
financial instrument can be used for
the purchase of goods from any
manufacturer irrespective of their
location. It can also serve as
collateral with any bank in the world
to secure loans for your project or to
activate credit line to finance your
business plan. We have {BG}, Standby
Letter of Credit {SBLC}, Medium Term
Notes {MTN}, Confirmable Bank Draft
{CBD} as well as other financial
instruments issued from AAA Rated bank
such as HSBC Bank Hong Kong, HSBC Bank
London, Deutsche Bank AG Frankfurt,
Barclays Bank , Standard Chartered Bank
and others on lease at the lowest
available rates depending on the face
value of the instrument needed.


Email : nat.mandate18@gmail.com
Skype : nat.mandate18@gmail.com


Regards
Nat