Nationals Baseball: Give up and Win

Wednesday, August 22, 2018

Give up and Win

The Nats effectively called it a season yesterday, dealing away their starting 2nd baseman and an effective bench hitter. Both not only were traded but were traded to teams in the NL making teams the Nats would in theory be competing with stronger. You don't do that if you are seriously competing.

We'll have a Murphy retrospective at some point but for two years Daniel was the surprise gift that helped make the Nats one of the best teams in the NL. But then he got injured and wasn't much help to the Nats for a good portion of this season.  His injury, age, and inability to field made Murphy a risky re-sign at the end of the year so a trade makes sense.  In return the Nats got Andrew Monasterio an interesting middle infielder hitting ok in High A, primarily prized for his speed and batting eye .  Is he a prospect? Not really - he's just a few days younger than Victor Robles to give you an idea of how far he is from top prospect status. But he's not a useless return. He could develop into a Difo type or if you are lucky something more. That's something.

Matt Adams, who was the guy the Nats got because they figured correctly that they could cheap out and not bring Lind back and it would be ok, hit perhaps better than he ever has to start this year, but cooled down considerably as the year went on. He was just offloaded. Waived by Nats - picked up by Cardinals. Salary dump. Could they have fought and gotten something for him? Perhaps a no-prospect low A player but that would have been just to do it.

Of course they Nats deal this guys, and you expect them to be demoralized and get rolled over by the Phillies but baseball doesn't work that way and the Nats went out and won last night's game. So if you want to keep enjoying the season even though the team itself seems ready to pack it in you can.  At least for a few more days.

Should the Nats have dealt at the trade deadline? I guess so but really they should have done something different than what they did.  Try for some small improvement - that would have made sense. Try to sell off everyone - that would have made sense. But instead they sold a little - hoping to spark the team at the expense of making them worse and it didn't work.  A bad plan with a bad outcome.

What does this mean for 2019? Nothing different. The Nats need to retool to compete immediately bringing in (or keeping) a couple decent bats and more importantly getting the pitching in order. I've already said I want 3 FA/trade relievers because the Nats haven't proved to have any ability to develop guys here that can do the job.  One year, two years, three years, you write off. Six years you gotta act accordingly.

Sweep the Phillies! Keep Hope Alive!

42 comments:

Anonymous said...

This would be very Nats to go on a mini tear now and get to 4.5 back just to godfather 3 the fans...

Ole PBN said...

Glover disappoints me. As I recall last year or the year before, he hid an injury and it came back to bite him in the end: poor performance mixed with prolonged absence due to said injury. I wonder if we're seeing this again?

In either case, he is one of the guys I touted years ago as being a potential impact arm and he looks nothing like it this year. As Harper said, the Nats have shown zero ability to develop bullpen talent (or pitching talent in general). I wonder who that's on?

Oh well... just keep winning.

Robot said...

It was the right decision, I guess, but still gonna miss Murph.

blovy8 said...

But I thought bullpen arms were fungible? Just like managers.

blovy8 said...

It's a light return, but expected at this point. But where are the Cubs gonna play Murphy? Is he better than any of Rizzo, Russell, Baez and Zobrist? Never mind that Bryant is coming back. I guess they could say screw defense, play him at second and sit Russell, but it looks like a part time role for him. That sucks a little. The rich and good just throw their money around like the bullies they are. He'd have gotten to DH and play in the AL.

Monasterio is not very exciting, and would seem to merely be institutional depth, but at least he hasn't been around so long that he would be exposed to Rule 5. The Cubs seem to have a bunch of similar players down at that level, so it doesn't hurt them at all. I was hoping that more "something" was going to be the unnamed guy coming over after the fall league, which sounds encouraging until you realize the alternative is cash.

W. Patterson said...

Looking to enjoy the game tonight. Should be (mostly) dry, reasonable temperature, and I've already told the boss that I'll be in late if it goes to extra innings (since I'm taking the water taxi from Alexandria so can't control when I leave).

Win or lose, I'm looking for an enjoyable and comfortable game. Mostly win.

Oh, and I appreciate Difo and, though I've not looked at his numbers, thought he did a good job this season.

G Cracka X said...

I'm also planning to attend tonight's action. Welcome back Stephen Strasburg! Hope he is truly healthy this time.

One of the saddest parts of the season to me is the fact that with everything that happened, it feels like the balance of the season came down to just 1 game. I'm thinking of the 'If we had Realmuto on our team...' extra innings loss in Miami. I feel like if they had found a way to win that game, even with the 5-0 clunker the next day, the narrative would have been '3 out of 4 on the road against Miami, trending upward, and within striking distance of Atlanta and Philly' and the Nats would have bought a reliever or two, maybe Ramos or another catcher. Certainly would not have traded away Kintzler.

Oh well. Everything happens for a reason. Lookin' forward to seeing what the Nats do in the offseason. It should be interesting.

G Cracka X said...

Nats have a 70-56 Pythag record. 12-21 in 1-run games, and 2-7 in extra innings games. Subpar managing, lack of effort, or just plain ol' variance?

Froggy said...

It will be interesting to see Murph in a Cubs uniform when they come to town in two weeks.

(Not holding my breath) said...

If we can win more than we can lose, I'm not ready to call the season until that moment on September 7 when I have to decide to buy the postseason tickets or not.

Sammy Kent said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Sammy Kent said...

Very soothing to get a letter from Captain Mark Lerner assuring us that re-arranging the deck chairs is going to save the Titanic.

Johnny Callison said...

Where do the Nats stand right now with respect to the luxury tax? Rizzo indicated that they are still over, but then sort of equivocated, so I'm not clear. How much more payroll would they need to shed? And how significant is being under the tax? That is, can someone explain the ramifications of being over vs. being under?

Could they shed one more contract (like Gio, if anyone would want him) and squeak under if they aren't already?

I was trying to find information on all this, but didn't know where to look!

billyhacker said...

I really enjoyed having Murphy on the team. I enjoyed seeing a player change something important mid-career and have it work out. And for someone who was basically signed as filler until something else was ready, he had a huge impact. Seeing him flub two important grounders last Saturday was painful - but he owned his mistakes and was productive with the bat. If the strikeouts had kept coming (ie Strasburg not being out), Murphy's defense would have been less important. He'll be missed.

blovy8 said...

Cots Contracts has the opening day numbers, but I think it's complicated because we the Nats owe most of Kelley's salary, but none of Adams'. I suspect we're still over by 5-7 million and even moving Harper wouldn't have been enough. At the trade deadline, yes. Plus, they're only getting a 2nd round pick for him, so the Dodgers didn't have to give up much to beat that, if they were really looking to get under. Another inference can be made that Gio probably has no trade value.

Anonymous said...

I think the Nationals should "play to win" with the current series against Philly and start regulars. At some point, say mid September, they should strongly consider starting the call ups. Is there any reason to start Gio or Hellickson in mid September and beyond?

blovy8 said...

Of course, if they want to re-sign Harper, they might not care about the compensation part of it, and just have a set price that's high like the Marlins with Realmuto. But why expose him to waivers again? Would the Dodgers give them more in August than July?

blovy8 said...

9:27 Anon, isn't that the usual plan? The bench guys brought up were Sanchez and Stevenson. They pretty much know who those guys are already.

SM said...

You make an interesting point, Harper, when you note the Nats haven't proved they can develop relievers. I wonder, though, if there actually exists a standard, generally-accepted-reliever-development principle.

The attrition rate of young arms throwing three or four times a week, not to mention repeatedly warming up in the bullpen, is fearful. (The strain is even evident in the big leagues, cf. Nationals, Washington, 2018.) Somebody like Craig Kimbrel or Kenley Jansen who started as relievers in the minors, are exceptions, if not sort of anatomical freaks.

On the other hand, Edwin Diaz, Wade Davis, Aroldis Chapman, Jeurys Familia and even good ol' Blake Treinen began their minor league careers as starting pitchers. Somewhere along the line, player development people in various organizations had the smarts, judgment or instinct to convert them to relievers.


I don't know if the Nats are any worse than other organizations at developing relievers--I wonder if any organization stands out as the "best" at developing relievers--but you're right, the Nats haven't been very successful at it. But that doesn't mean they, like other teams, aren't constantly experimenting.

One Nats example: James Bourque, at AA Harrisburg, 25 years old, drafted in the 14th round in 2014. A starter until this year, he was just awful: 226 IP, 257 hits allowed, 75 walks, 19 HRs, 15 hit batters and an ERA pushing 5.00.

Maybe it was the 178 strikeouts, or mere exasperation, but this season they decided to try him out as a reliever. This season, at High A Potomac and AA Harrisburg, he's pitched a combined 48 innings, allowed 30 hits, 3 HRs, dinged 3 batters, walked 22, struck out 66, with an ERA of 1.88.

Of course, this means nothing as far as the Nats immediate prospects are concerned. Bourque, though, isn't the only one they're experimenting with. Maybe there's a formula for developing relievers, maybe not, but at least they're trying.

ocw5000 said...

re: relievers, they should make Joe Ross into one

PotomacFan said...

Drew Storen was drafted as a reliever.

Josh Higham said...

Cot's Contracts does update during the season, but the current version does not include Adams or Murphy, as it was last updated 8/18. Probably within a few days they'll have it up to date.

Minor note: Murphy's AAV is 12.5m, not the 17.5m he's actually earning this year, so dumping him saves more real money than tax threshold space.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-t4BlpC_npBSj6KFivtDkuqtmEu5Vlk2yPvMZD_UkuQ/pubhtml

Josh Higham said...

Just eyeballing it, to get under the threshold, the Nats probably need to move at least 2 of Gio (who no one will want), Herrera and Madson (who no one may want). Dumping salary without getting under the threshold does mean a lot,unless we actually believe that money saved this year will go into player payroll next season--and I'm not sure why we should.

Max David said...

We may not have won Tuesday’s nights game without the trades. Yes Difo had that big home run, but I’m guessing they would have curled up into the fetal posistion after they failed to score with a runner on 3rd with less than 2 outs and proceeded to give up the lead the next inning and would have gone down meekly.

And I’m fairly confident they are not winning Wednesday night’s game either. Unless the Nats are starting another 22-6 stretch (not out of the question, if they win Thursday this could really springboard them) this division will be won by the Braves easily because IMO this Phillies team stinks.

Max David said...

And also great moment for Zim! Everyone that’s kicked him when he’s been down, rightfully so, to come up with that. Nice to be on the plus size for a change when it comes to moments like that. If this were a Hollywood movie that would be the turning point on a playoff run, unfortunately we aren’t living in a fairy tale.

G Cracka X said...

@Max Yes! It was so fun to see the walkoff last night! A couple more of those, and I might have to dust off the St. Crispin's speech......

Agree about Zim. He's endured a lot of criticism from fans and many negative comparisons. Yet there he is with a 127 WRC+ and 1.0 fWAR in 56 games, which is the same fWAR that Matt Adams produced during his time with the Nats.

I disagree about the Phillies assessment. They have a good team, and I think they'll look better when Nola takes the mound today. Also, they keep upgrading. For example, just yesterday they picked up Luis Avilan to strengthen their 'pen.

G Cracka X said...

1 more comment and 1 more question:

Bryce showed a lot of concentration and hustle last night. Bunted for a single. There was a play where he caught the CF napping and took 3rd on a flyout (CF didn't let that happen the next time when Turner was on 2nd). His steal, which led to Turner scoring. Good stuff from him tonight.

Question: does anyone know what the three signs to the dugout mean? I saw Bryce flash two threes after a double, and I think at least one other player (maybe Soto) did the same thing at one point.

Anonymous said...

The three fingers are a 'W' for Washington or 'Win' I believe

ssln said...

Now we are really in trouble. Rizzo thinks the trade of Murphy and Adams finally motivated the team to play its best baseball of the year. That means Max and Bryce will be dealt tomorrow. You know we have to get under the salary cap, plan for 2019 and think of all the Double A pitching prospects we could get in return.

blovy8 said...

I can think of a few reasonable examples:

Clippard became an effective reliever after the Yanks dumped him as a failed starter.

They were pretty successful converting Craig Stammen from a meh starter into the sort of longman/groundball middle guy every team should have.

Recently, they traded away a very good one in Vasquez to the Pirates, and it seems like they were just in tough spot with Treinen, he always had he stuff, but they weren't in a position to let him work it out.

I think Matt Grace is becoming a solid reliever, nothing special but probably a lefty they can keep for several years if he's healthy.

I'm not sure about Wander Suero yet, but he seems to be getting the chance with that cutter - it's not Jansen or Rivera, but could be effective. He has pretty good focus for a guy with that name...

blovy8 said...

11 walk-off homers for Zim now is behind only Pujols on the active players list. The record is 13 by Jim Thome. Everyone around Zim on the alltime list has a lot more home runs, so you have to admit that he has a bit of a dramatic flair for such a bland guy. I may have to dig that old freebie Mr Walk-Off t-shirt out.

JE34 said...

https://thefandc.radio.com/danny-rouhier-does-bob-carpenter-impression-on-nats-radio

This was funny stuff in the booth last night...

Ole PBN said...

Heard that as well, so funny. Bob is such a clown and Ray's was spot on. I imagine Bob didn't think it was very funny. Game show hosts typically don't like that sort of thing.

Also, the picture in JE34's link of the broadcasting crew: anyone think Charlie Slowes looks like John Lovitz?

Silver Fox is Drunk said...

Thanks JE34. That was great. The Ray Knight was good, but too sober. The Nats should lose today, I'm starting to get my hopes up again.

JE34 said...

https://proxy.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fcmofosho.files.wordpress.com%2F2011%2F01%2Fjon-lovitz-acting.jpg&f=1

Silver Fox is Drunk said...

Gio cleared waivers, let's hope the next start is a good one and they can deal him for a bag of balls.

Josh Higham said...

Whatever you do, remember not to get your hopes up.

Max David said...

@ Silver Fox, at this rate I'll take a picture of the Mariner Moose or a picture of Bernie Brewer with the slide at Miller Park in return for Gio, but I think that's a bit lopsided for the M's & Brewers lol.

Kubla said...

This one kills me. Not only did they lose, they cost Max a head-to-head against Nola, his only real CY rival. Now they've got the same ERA and Nola is 15-3 to Max's 16-6. Ugh. At least he got 10 Ks.

blovy8 said...

I agree Kubla, there are going to be voters thinking this was the matchup that proves it was Nola's year. It's hard to argue that he wasn't better yesterday though it should still be the whole year's work and not one game. But you know the writers love their story lines, and Max's will have to be getting to 20 wins and maybe 300 K's, because there are no more meaningful games left for the Nats. But if we feel badly for Scherzer, you have to feel even worse for deGrom.

blovy8 said...

Charlie Slowes looks like Jon Lovitz but sounds like Lionel Barrymore.

Ole PBN said...

The race did indeed get a lot closer, but don't forget Max's WHIP, K's, K:BB ratio. Although I wouldn't be surprised if they gave it to deGrom, just because of his ERA... which would be ridiculous... but so has this season.