Not everything is bad. The Nats aren't going to make the playoffs, but they have played as well as the other teams in the NL East since the break meaning that the talent to challenge for the East is still there (whatever you think of that bar). Of course it's one thing if this was spurred on by guys either out the door or soon to be, it's another if it was spurred on by talent staying in DC. What have the Nats numbers looked like since the break?
Offense
Crushing it
Bryce : .304 / .444 / .560
Zimmerman : .299 / .377 / .565
Soto : .296 / .414 / .522
Rendon : .335 / .394 / .510
Murphy : .340 / .370 / .904
A mixed bag. Murphy is gone and unlikely to come back. Bryce could be gone. Zimm is a strong bet not to reach 120 games. But Soto could get better and Rendon will likely be here unless they rebuild. So that's a very solid two-batters to build around
Surviving
Eaton : .274 / .377 / .400
Turner : .270 / .329 / .405
Difo : .218 / .302 / .427
Yes Difo has well outslugged Eaton and Turner. That's not a good sign, especially for Turner who doesn't have the "I've been injured for two years! Give me some time!" excuse Eaton does. Difo doubters (like me!) will note that it has been just 127 PAs which isn't enough to shake out the flukes and historically he's more a .370 slugger. None of this is good, but it's workable for the other guys in the line-up if your first bunch is strong enough.
Struggling
Kieboom : .204 / .317 / .370
Weiters : .246 / .327 / .358
all the other OFs (Sanchez, Robles so far, Stevenson, MAT)
Severino barely played in the 2nd half before getting injured but he was worse than these two. Wieters will be gone but that's it that has to go. Robles is likely to start if Bryce leaves and his production range going into next year will vary wildly from ROY candidate to AAAA guy.
The offense has a decent start with Soto and Rendon, but around them there isn't quite enough. Zimm can hit when healthy but that's like half the time. Eaton should get better with health, but that's no guarantee either. The rest of the "here next year" crew isn't special. Of course we don't expect the Nats to stand pat here. But the early look says - if Bryce is gone, a lot is going to ride on Robles. Is he a third core bat or just decent line-up filler?
Pitching
Nasty stuff
Holland : WHIP 0.873, 11.3 K/9, 2.88 K/BB
Scherzer : 0.944, 11.9, 6.33
Doolittle : 1.000, 9.0, 10.00 (in 5IP)
Madson : 1.000, 9.0, 6.00 (10 IP)
Kintzler : 1.000, 7.2, 4.00 (5 IP)
Hey. There was a reason the Nats had built around those three in the bullpen. No, the results didn't always match what these numbers suggest. Madson was real prone to the long ball. Kintzler has had consistency issues. But these guys had talent and are going to have to be replaced. Could Holland be one? Perhaps... if he sticks around.
And of course Max is Max.
Mixed Bag
Man there's a lot of pitchers... ok Fedde, Roark, Miller, Hellickson, Ross, Collins, Grace, Suero, Jefry, and Stras all fit in here. Ross barely pitched. Fedde, Stras, and Collins have good stuff but had control issues. Miller, Hellickson, and Grace had decent control but no stuff. Jefry is smoke and mirrors to be even passable. That leaves Roark who has compensated for a complete lack of stuff (only a 6.6 K/9 in 2nd half) with complete control. 7 walks in 65+ innings.
What does that all say. It says the Nats have plenty of "other guys" to fill out the pen but no one you really love. It also says that the rotation may be an issue. Roark has been ok, but is pitching in a way that he hasn't historically which is something that makes you question how sustainable it is. Strasburg actually looks better when you take a look at his game log - the trends are what you want to see in terms of him getting back to his old self, but again he doesn't pitch a full season. Add in that Fedde is a question mark and Jefry is a mirage and you have to figure another rotation arm is needed.
Get him out of here stuff
Milone, Glover, Gio, Kelley, Herrera, Solis, Williams, Cordero, Gott. Gio was pretty terrible in the second half but he's gone now. Milone is incredibly hittable, especially over the fence type of hits. Glover, Kelley (gone), Herrera, Williams and Cordero all showed little stuff and Glover, Williams and Cordero were all wild. Gott barely pitched but was bad. He and Williams, Solis were all homer prone as well.
Starter wise there isn't anything here to worry about. Gio and Milone weren't in the plans for 2019. We already noted they need a new starter and it's good to see that Fedde and Jefry, at least one of who will likely fill in a rotation spot, aren't in this group (though Jefry is skirting it). Bullpen wise though you see a lot of names here of guys they hoped to be big parts of the Nats pen moving forward. Solis, Glover, and Gott were probably three guys they expect to run out there in big spot by now. Instead they are being run out of town. Williams was the next guy they said to get excited about and he's been just as bad. There's a lot of small IP in here but also a lot to worry about.
The pitching has been a trouble spot in the 2nd half in compared to the offense and there isn't much to make you optimistic as the season ends. I guess you can feel ok about the rotation. Max is Max, Stras is rounding back into form, Roark should be rotation worthy if not actually good and Fedde isn't terrible. If the Nats get a legit contender #2 type then it'll be a pretty good rotation especially the top end. But the pen is a different story. There's seemingly no one between Doolittle and the space filler part of the bullpen and the guys you were looking toward to play important rolls haven't stepped up, they've fallen down.
The second half Nats have shown an ability to compete. To keep that up in 2019 it looks like a couple decent signings might keep the offense up because what's here is pretty good. A good signing might keep the rotation up because what's here is workable. But the bullpen is in shambles, again, and nothing here is showing they are worth relying in 2019 on outside of Doolittle.
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18 comments:
Offensively, the Nats need a catcher, a 1B to share time with Zimmerman and potentially a 2B depending on Kendrick's progress from his injury. Robles is a bit of an unknown but you have to keep in mind that he's coming back from a bad injury. He was awesome in '17 and will improve the outfield defense dramatically.
As for the SP, they absolutely need to get at least a #3 type starter. The bullpen needs a lot of work but I think Doolittle, Suero and Grace should have spots. Miller and Glover could compete for another spot but they really need ti bring in one or two late inning relievers and a lefty specialist.
Resign Bryce, have him continue to take some grounders at 1b and he plays there next year versus tough RHP or when Zimm inevitably injures himself. I think the Nats have a realistic shot at signing him. You also have to remember that Robles was considered the sure thing and Soto was the "let's see what we have here" guy. Still believe Robles is an exceptional talent. Having Robles would also enable Turner to drop down to the #6 or 7 spot (maybe 9th). And find a catcher. Somewhere, anywhere.
A #2 or #3 starter would be right after catcher as a priority. Outside of a top-flight closer, which we don't need, I don't see them spending $$$ on the bullpen. It's going to be another preseason of "we have these 20 guys, somebody has to stand out".
Whatever they do, I really hope they trade neither Robles nor Soto, even if it's for a good catcher or a great pitcher. I'd take five games of either versus a guy who only plays 1/5 days.
Yes - this is pretty much the consensus. But it's a lot. Catcher, SP, at least two good relievers, dependable 1B, MI, and probably OF depth. What's that run?
AW - I think Bryce wants to stay and if DC meets his price he would without looking around. Not sure they will.
Harper, are there rumblings as to what Bryce's price is? If you put on your Boras hat for a minute any chance he would do a Home team discount pertaining to options as long as the AAV is right?
I dunno, I still think relievers are unpredictable, so why spend a lot? Grace seems ok as the longman lefty and Suero seems to be a reasonable cutter-driven reliever. Someone out of Glover, Rodriguez, Williams & co. will probably figure it out enough to stick, and that's a reasonable amount of lottery tickets to get innings for when the free agent signings get hurt. Which they will. I'm suspicious of Holland's max effort delivery holding up an entire year again, but if they only have to pay the rate for the whole year's ERA and not the promise of the second half results, they could afford him.
The best thing about Roark's crappy year is that he has lost his "horse" standing, so the only guy remaining who is like that would be Scherzer. You can bet they will get at least one another starter expected to throw 180 innings.
While I worry about the ugly defense in center without Robles or much of Taylor, the team doesn't seem very worried about Harper playing there. It would be natural for Rizzo to deal Robles for a cost-controlled front of the order pitcher if Harper is getting a personal Brinks delivery from them. But it's only their money, not mine.
I'm kind of weary of this type of discussion. Unless you unrealistically expect the team to spend 200+ million in payroll, can force teams to trade you players who would help, and have the ability to convince major-league quality pitchers and hitters to accept AAA contracts - you have to accept there will be weaknesses unaddressed. They've actually been reasonably fortunate in bargain shopping, getting Reynolds and Holland off the scrap heap. But there are a lot of players they could use who will not sign here. Every season, someone who would plug a leak signs someplace else for less, or for a better opportunity to play. I don't think it's always deferrals.
Harper, you barely consider Ross as a starting option. Too little data to consider him a potentially significant contributor? I realize that even if he does pitch effectively, he'll almost certainly be on the innings limit approach, so you still need another starter, maybe to pick up innings from both Stras and Ross (although if they are down simultaneously, that won't work). But if Ross is back and he's good, that's big, I think.
The team really seems to have a problem with evaluating and signing good pitchers, even as variable as pitchers tend to be. I think they assumed this season would be locked in with Max-Stras-Good Gio-Rebounding Roark and they'd find a fifth starter somewhere. At one point they were down to Max and 5 innings of Hellickson while Stras was out and Gio/Roark fell apart, and that was where the season was lost, as it cost them June and then put stress on the BP that showed up later. The division was winnable if Stras is healthy and Gio/Roark are reasonably decent.
Signing FA pitchers is so risky. Max is an outlier--one of the best FA signings ever in starting pitching. Trading for one still in his prime looks a better bet, but what to the Nats have to trade?
I guess I should say the team has more of a problem with developing good pitchers. The track record is not great, while a few other teams seem to have depth and quality coming up through their system. Stras was a lock with the high pick and Gio was a great find in a trade. They got a very good year out of Fister, JZim had some good years. And Max is an A plus. But the team has developed very few consistent arms on its own. I know it's a crapshoot, but it's starting to look like Rizzo isn't that good at developing pitching.
I thought relievers--other than closers--were "fungible." That was the word du jour on this site a few seasons back.
I think @Alan Wiecking has it right on the button. The Nats will bring in about 20 guys in Spring Training and hope someone will emerge. That's precisely the reason Matthew LeCroy in Harrisburg and especially Potomac's Tripp Keister--I love that name! The best in baseball since Rip Repulski--have been experimenting with their pitchers, trying to convert suspect starters into promising relievers.
@Johnny Callison
A good point of departure for future discussion.
Is it the Nats' scouting, evaluation and drafting to blame (assuming you're correct)? Their player development unit? Strength, conditioning, medical staffs?
Or are the Nats no better or worse than any other organization at developing solid starting pitchers? Perhaps there's an organization that rolls out Aces like cars off an assembly line. Or maybe some teams are very good at sniffing out unnoticed talent in other organizations and trading for it.
Lots of good barroom talk for snowy evenings.
Harper's WRC+ for the second half has been 167. That's a higher WRC+ than any 1st baseman in the league (Goldschmidt is at 161). Seems wasteful to spend $32 million on a 1st baseman, but at least he has the offense for it.
I mostly agree with this rundown, but I think you’re being way too charitable to Fedde. I know he had a decent start several days ago, but other than that one decent start he hasn’t looked to me like he belongs in a major league rotation at all. If you can’t provide more than 4.1 decent inninings against that laughable Marlins AAA caliber lineup, you have issues.
If the Nationals have the notion in their heads that they will be contenders again next year, then counting on Fedde to be part of the rotation would be and will be a massive mistake,
I'm not sold on Fedde as being a part of any plan. I guess he's a SP7? In his 12 career starts, he's reached 6 innings twice. That like Hellickson bad, but at least Hellickson doesn't give up 5-6 runs
@Johnny Callison, I echo your sentiments on our inability to develop quality pitching, especially starters. But I don't know if that falls entirely on Rizzo. He's the man responsible for making trades, hence the only names you brought up that fared well here were mostly acquired via FA, whereas his scouting department and minor league staff are responsible for player development. Maybe Rizzo needs to do some housecleaning of these people...
In the international pool, I think we've fared pretty well in terms of scouting (Soto, Robles, etc.) But I can't recall many success via the draft aside from Rendon. Since Rizzo took over in 2009 (aside from Bryce, Rendon, and Strasburg), we've taken these guys in rounds 1 and 2: Storen, Jeff Kobernus, Solis, Alex Meyer, Goodwin, Giolito, Tony Renda, Jake Johansen, Fedde, Andrew Suarez, Stevenson, Blake Perkins, Kieboom, Dunning, and Sheldon Neuse. I left out 2017 and 2018. Out of those guys who was worth the pick? Storen? That's a lot of misses.
Fedde has control issues. The stuff plays though, so he'll get plenty of chances. It's an old story. Baseball is difficult.
In 2010 they picked Harper, Solis, Cole, Grace, Barrett, and Robbie Ray. Five pitchers made the big leagues. That seems pretty good to me, but yeah, most draft years seem awful.
Froggy - haven't heard anything since the 400 million+ talk but I think the "bigger than Stanton" in some fashion (either total or AAV) is going to be the goal. Player opt-outs may make it lower
Callison - Ross is definitely in there. I'd worry about the 13-19-13-3 GS numbers though
SM - they are! a couple years back though I explained what I mean. That basically you can throw out a 4.00 ERA pitcher and he can throw 3.30 or 4.70 because of the innings limit so you should be able to find someone to fill a pen in general. Wander Sueros and Justin Millers for example this year. But a couple things worry me about the 2019 Nats bullpen specifically. 1) They don't have anyone I like to be dominant, or even 3.00 talent types that might be dominant. 2) I have to admit that the Nats seem unable to develop relievers like I thought they would. (or at least get them past whatever the last hurdle is). The base idea of fungible is that you have 3-4 guys, 2-3 you like, and you can fill in the rest. I don't see that for 2019.
Harper you keep railing on how the Nats can't develop relievers, and you're probably right, but have you done a thing where you look at Nats relievers performance after they leave? Obviously Treinen and Vazquez stand out, but is there any more of a trend? Stammen? Xavier Cedeño? Detwiler? Ryan Matteus? Ian Krol? It's probably a mixed bag when you look at everyone, but would be interesting to see how relievers develop with Nats vs how they do in other organizations. Would also be interesting to see if anything in Treinen/Vazquez stats like a good K/BB rate or high BABIP portended future success. For example, I think Suero's peripherals are consistent and good enough where he could continue developing into a solid reliever, whereas Trevor Gott and Austin Adams look like trash.
I would make Joe Ross a Wade Davis-type converted reliever
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