4 Week Status
Record: 69-69
Ground gained/lost in division last wk : +2 games to PHI, +1 games to ATL
Ground gained/lost in WC race last wk : +1 to STL, +1 SFG, -1 MIL, -1 LAD, +1 PIT, 0 COL, +2.5 ARI
It's not like the Nats are crushing it. Who's winning all these games?
Anyway - the Nats are making their move! At this pace the Nats will take first place from Atlanta on October 29th. Of course the season ends well before that but moral victories are still victories? If we're lucky the Nats will hold onto this pacing for another week and then they can either (1) play spoiler and deal a finishing blow to the Phillies playoff hopes or (2) go on a crazy run in those 6 games against Philly and Atlanta (and at this point that means 6-0) and give us something to talk about for a moment longer.
CY YOUNG RACE
Scherzer : 16-6 2.28 ERA, 0.878 WHIP, 12.1 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9 (2.73 FIP)
deGrom 8-8 1.68 ERA, 0.963 WHIP, 11.0 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 0.4 HR/9 (2.07 FIP)
(and by popular request) Nola : 15-4 2.23 ERA, 0.974 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9 (2.76 FIP)
Basically what the above says is that deGrom is the best pitcher in the NL and Scherzer is slightly better than Nola, but Nola is right behind in wins and a little ahead in ERA. If Nola can squeak by in wins he may get more votes than Max. UNLESS, Max makes a serious run at 300 Ks which is something we haven't seen in a while. Either way deGrom vs one of these two becomes another proxy vote about the importance of pitching wins. Voters pretty much decided that with Felix a few years ago but can they vote someone in with under 10 wins? A losing record? I think if nothing changes stats wise and neither happen - so DeGrom wins 10+ and finished .500 or better - he wins hands down. If he doesn't it could go any direction. Still looks like an award decided by who blinks first.
ROY Race
Soto : .302 / .419 / .517 16 HR, 2 SB (in 392 PAs)
Acuna : .292 / .357 / .568 23 HR, 11 SB (in 373 PAs)
Soto has been hot since we last checked in (over .400 BA) but Acuna hasn't cooled down (.333 BA) and nothing about the game has changed. Do you prefer great patience with good power (3 XBH, 1 HR, 7 BB since then) or great power and adequate patience (5 XBH, 2HR, 3 BB since? Much like the Cy Young this could be determined by the batting equivalent of one bad start - one bad week. Right now I still like Acuna but if Soto can keep the average over .300 that has some psychological points.
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17 comments:
Thanks Harper.
Do you know if Soto is close to setting the record for 'most 3-walk games by a rookie'? I know that sounds arbitrary, but it is indicative of Soto's 'beyond his years' maturity at the plate so far.
Maybe? The record is at least 6 (Joc Pederson did it in 2015 - maybe others). I can't promise it isn't higher.
Call me a homer, but I still don't see how deGrom is "the best pitcher in the NL". He has a slight edge in FIP and HR/9, and a lower ERA, but wasn't it you Harper who said ERA doesn't matter? Max is simply a horse and has carried the team on his back the whole year. He is crushing everyone in K's and could possibly crack 300 if he continues to average >12 K/9.
If everything remains the same, I think it is Max's to lose going out.
Anon - never said ERA doesn't matter. It's flawed but we're used to it and it gives a good quick reference on how a pitcher is doing.
It's pretty simple. Max gives up too many homers (for this race). DeGrom may give up a hit more a game but a homer is an automatic run. A random single and double isn't nearly as meaningful as a random homer given all else being pretty much equal. Lots' of K's are nice but an out is an out when it comes down to it. A K more a game is nothing. With the talent level of these two it'll take a month (months?) of games before that ball in play matters.
deGrom is #1 in fWAR and RA-9 WAR, and tied for #2 in bWAR, so it seems that he should be the front-runner for NL Cy:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2018-pitching-leaders.shtml
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=3,d
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0
Of course I want Max to win again, but can't justify it from the current stats. Maybe things change by the end of the regular season.
Most of the predictions/polls I've seen see deGrom as a pretty clear, but not heavy, favorite. a sub 2 ERA may not mean too much to a true stathead, but to most of us seeing an ERA that starts with 1 draws immediate connections to Walter Johnson, Gibson, Koufax, Kershaw and co. He's giving up homers at better than half the rate Max is. The 25 starts with under 4 ER is another old fashioned thing that carries a lot of weight.
If Max breaks 300 Ks and has at least one really excellent (8 IP, 12+K) start and no clunkers, he's got a great shot, regardless of what deGrom does, but otherwise I think it's deGrom's to lose, and he's given us no reason to think he's going to look mortal in the next 4 weeks.
Plus I think the voters look for key games over the course of season (meaningful games, key match-ups, etc.) and Scherzer was outpitched by Nola both times they faced each other last month.
If there was a way of measuring it, I'm pretty sure Fangraphs and Fivethirtyeight would probably show the Nats--based on the Pythagorean formula--to be underperforming in moral victories, too.
In any case, your reference to moral victories raises an interesting, if somewhat peripheral, question.
Does how a team finish its season correlate to how it will perform the following season?
Bill James, once upon a time, concluded that it did. (Let's cherry pick, and cite the 2013 Nats, who went 18-9 in September.) If one considers only World Series champions, however (over the last 20 years, say), there seems hardly any correlation. (The 2014 Royals and 2008 Yankees are two notable exceptions.)
In the case of World Series winners, it seems firing managers (the god-like Buck Showalter twice, godless Bobby Valentine, purgatorial Grady Little), aggressive GMs and free agency matter more. But that's just World Series winners.
Maybe in the winter, between snow shoveling, I'll try and answer my own question. I was hoping, though, you'd save me the work.
By the way, Max will probably win a moral victory in the Cy Young race.
Appropos of nothing, I'd just like to point out that I am 0 - 6 for the Nationals home games I attended this year. I suppose that I might be bad luck for them, but more likely they just aren't very good.
This was my first, and last, year of getting season tickets. I mostly got them to get better prices for the Home Run Derby, the All Star Game, and the playoffs (yeah, what playoffs???). Bad investment.
In any event, if anyone wants two free tickets to any of the remaining games (except the Chicago series), just respond to me privately, and I'll e-mail them to you. Section 418, Row E. But you can pretty much sit where you want in the 300 or 400 sections. Hey, you'll probably get to see Victor Robles and Juan Soto playing together.
Horsehockey call on Trea Turner in the first. From the baseball rules 2018: "Rule 5.06(b)(3)(B) Comment: A runner forced to advance without liability to be put out may advance past the base to which he is entitled only at his peril." The base on balls to Harper entitled Trea to occupy second without risk of being tagged out until and unless he actually advanced past the base.
Trea had NOT advanced past the bag. He may have lost contact with the bag for a moment if his hand left the base before his foot actually touched it. But even if he did not maintain constant contact with the base, he did NOT slide past the bag, therefore had not advanced past the base. He should have been permitted to stay on second base.
So quickly everyone jumps on the 'Max cannot win the Cy Young because a pitcher who hasn't won a significant game all year for an irrelevant team has a lower ERA' bandwagon? Hilarious.
How about starts, IP, total strike outs, and (most importantly) WAR 9.0 to 8.6?
How about DL time this season? That is the true test.
...and I forgot Wins, 16-6 v. 8-8 Yeah, that's kind of important. Max is our #1 and usually goes against the other teams #1 as well, so there must be some fancy stat that reflects that, right?
I posted this in the wrong thread last night but still good to note. Obviously they can't sweep this week, but the context remains the same:
"Wouldn't it be funny if they swept this week?? And really the NL is still leaving them on life support: Phillies stink just like I said 2 weeks ago. They are only 3-8-2 in 13 series since the break despite playing the Padres twice, Reds, Mets, Blue Jays, and Marlins, and lost the first game to the Marlins Monday afternoon.
D'Backs have lost 4 straight
Rockies just split 2 games against the Padres.
Dodgers lost to the Mets Monday, and aren't leading the division
Cards lost a home series to the Reds this past weekend.
Braves still have a West coast trip to Arizona & SF along with a series against the Cards still upcoming.
It's still an incredible long shot, but I don't think it's going to take much more than 90 wins to make the playoffs. I know the GM quit, not just trading everyone, but trading everyone to NL teams, but have a good week, and keep having these teams in front of us lose, who knows what can happen??"
2 things to take away:
1)The Braves & Red Sox both had leads at 9 games or more on September 1 in 2011; neither team made the playoffs at the end of the year (and I believe the regular season that year ended about September 27 or 28 [this year ends September 30])
2) The Mets in 2007 had a 7 game lead with 17 to play; they too missed out on the playoffs, so they have basically 6 more games to make up a half game. Of course the 2007 Phillies were in 2nd, so only had to jump one team, and they had 2 remaining series against the Mets that year which makes gaining ground easier, but I like to look at things as an eternal optimist. Is it likely?? I have a better chance of winning the lotto and then surviving a plane crash on the same day, but until their playoff elimination number reaches 0, I will always cling to that faint hope.
I guess it's possible that a team could take the division with 80 wins.
Excuse me this team will win 81 games and that is certain.
Voters love winners and players who perform in NYC always have their performances magnified by the New York based media. That is simply the way it is and you have to learn to accept it.
The Nationals were always viewed as a nice team but few gave them a chance to win the World Series. Just like the Caps, they always found a way to lose in the playoffs. That perception colors individual awards as well as team recognition.
The translation is Acuna beats Soto and deGrom beats Max in close races. The only possible change is if the perceived winners blow up in the next month or the perceived losers perform at a Hall of Fame level for the next month.
It is all a matter of psychology and all preordained unless the baseball gods intervene
and they seemed to have left the venue after Bryce's Home Run Derby win.
I wish this team was in the AL East, so they'd be eliminated from playoff contention.
It's horrible watching all the other NL contenders stumble & bumble down the stretch and this team can't do a damn thing about it!
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