Rizzo made a comment yesterday that he wanted a frontline catcher - a guy to catch 120 games. I went ahead and took a shot and tried to find guys who played that much. But it turns out catching 120 games is pretty rare. Only 4 guys managed the feat in 2018. So I gave a little leeway. 230 games played the past two seasons with at least 90% at catcher. That would put a minimum of something like 105 games. At least in the ballpark of being able to start 120 reliably.
That got me only 6 names. Because one wasn't Realmuto I did a little more digging and I had him at 90.5% but I guess baseball ref is doing something different because he pops up at 89% but not 90%. So I dropped the requirement to 85%. That got me 8 guys. That's gotta be the limit of guys you could reasonably expect to catch 120 games
Who are these guys? Well first let's take out two guys who aren't going anywhere.
Yadier Molina is one. He is going to retire a Cardinal unless something crazy happens. Wilson Contreras is one. The Cubs are contending and not dealing a starting catcher.
We are down to 6
Yasmani Grandal. He's the prize. He can hit. He's a .240 bat with 20+ HR power and nice amount of patience. He might be the best framer in baseball. People were a little turned off by his post-season performance but that was atypical. He's a good fielder. The only real knock on the guy is that he'll be 30 next year and will probably get a contract that takes him into his decline years. Still, he's going to get a lot of money in free agency
JT Realmuto. We know all about him. He was thought of as possibly the
best hitter of all available catchers before last year, then set
himself apart performing really well in a dead line-up. He hits for
power and good average which covers for middling patience. Defensively
he's great at the usual stuff but not much of a framer. Still arguably
the best catcher in baseball right now. The Marlins are asking the world for him.
Mike Zunino. He's also a guy with 20+ power who's a pretty good fielder. Solid framer with a rocket arm. But there are a couple problems. First problem is he's nothing else at the plate. After a surprisingly good 2017 he went back to hitting around .200 and he's not patient. Second problem is he's not a FA and he just got traded to the Rays. On one hand, maybe the Rays are looking to flip him. On the other he's exactly the cheap player they want now... and will flip later. He's probably not available. Like Realmuto though he's under
control for two more years. Also like Realmuto, 28 next year. Very much a poor man's Realmuto.
Jon Lucroy. The best catcher in baseball just back in 2016 age has taken a quick toll on Jon. His power went last year and pitchers realized they could come right after him this year taking a bite out of his patience. His defense still looks good but his framing stats have also declined. You wouldn't think a guy would be done at 33 but he's a FA who will get one-year flier contract and nothing more.
Martin Maldanado. Never heard of the guy? Not surprising. He's was an uninspiring back-up for the Brewers before getting a full-time job with the Angels in 2017. Last year the Astros picked him up as a back-up. You couldn't ask for a better fielder. Very good framer who threw out a league high 49% of runners last year. But a nothing with the bat and never will be anything. Still that defense should earn him a 2 yr deal in FA.
Tucker Barnhart. Sneaks in at 85% He's kind of the traditional defensive stalwart catcher, meaning he blocks everything but can't frame at all. His arm is good and when that broke right (led league in CS% in 2017) he found himself with a gold glove. He's a little better than Maldanado at the plate and younger but also not a FA. He's under Reds control through 2021.
If the Nats want to get immediately better at catcher the choices are clear. You sign Grandal or you trade for Realmuto. If the Nats simply want a body back there they can rely on being back there - they have some choices. I suggested a platoony type situation but Rizzo seems to want consistency. That means you are probably looking at someone on this list.
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26 comments:
Probably the reason why Rizzo wants Bryce so bad, so he can possibly flip Robles+ for Realmuto? While that would be the best team on paper for us, I just don't think Bryce should be in our plans. Until management gets that through their head, we're are going to squander opportunities for SP and C. Trading Robles before getting Bryce can't happen, and I'm really banking on Rizzo understanding that.
Without Robles in the picture, I don't see how Realmuto comes to DC, without trading someone like Max. I'd take Grandal. I still don't know why Ramos isn't being considered. But I realize I'm the only one on here that would support a Buffalo reunion.
I might take a stab at trading for Austin Hedges. He might be Zuninish with his high K rate and good power in a crappy ballpark. His lousy OBP, along with the Padres trading for Francisco Mejia last year would seem to make him a decent buy-low target. He did catch 120 games in 2017, but batted like Wieters doing it. Maybe he's not all that great because it looks like his CS numbers took a dive, but he's controllable and not as flashy a target as the other catchers who've hit better, so his stock could be down enough to not have to give up very much.
Well, looking a little further, everything else on defense looks elite for Hedges. Maybe they don't think Mejia can catch, but I wonder.
It does sound like catcher is their next priority, it'll be interesting to see if more trade rumors crop up now that Zunino's been moved and sort of market has been set.
I'm less concerned about a catcher's offensive production. A good catcher works well with the pitching staff and has good defensive numbers and reputation. He's behind the plate for every pitch most games. That has the ability to swing the momentum of the game at least as much as his ability to mash a tater.
So I'd go with the best defensive catcher and consider any offense he brings to be gravy on the poutine.
Here is an OOB suggestion: bring back Wieters on a modest one year contract. Wieters can call a game, and the pitchers liked working with him. He's okay defensively. Sure, he's pretty terrible at the plate, but half of the "targets" on Harper's list are equally terrible at the plate. I'm not saying that this is my preferred solution, but it's an option. If this frees up money to bring in two starting pitchers and a decent 2B, then I can support it. If the Nats only have one hole in the line-up, I can live with that.
How about trading Soto for Realmuto and Urena? Then you can re-sign Bryce and have Robles play CF
@blovy8: Hedges also happens to be a Boras client. And I think Hedges has some fam in the DC area... but a defense-first catcher can likely be had without a trade (Maldonado). Plus, he's probably in the Padres' plans as the #2.
@PotomacFan: I hope your OOB suggestion remains OOB, or in a box in a dumpster behind Nationals Park. The devil-you-know argument has merit, yes... and the better use of money in other need areas is understandable. But yeesh, the super slow bat, the insistence on backhanding every ball in the dirt without blocking it, the long stretches of utterly insane situational at-bats (like his first pitch hacking when pitchers are struggling to throw strikes)... Rizzo - don't listen to this PotomacFan guy! ;-)
@JE 34. I have a direct line to Rizzo, so he's listening! Or not. Here's the thing: after one or two months of watching some of the lesser guys on Harper's list, Nats fans are going to say: "this guy is no better than Wieters", or maybe "I can't believe it, but this guy is worse than Wieters." Because I'll bet these guys have their defensive liabilities, and that they swing at bad pitches, etc. I will say, however, that I don't think it's possible for anyone to run the bases slower than Wieters. He's in a league with Billy Butler, and some hulking DHs for slowest base runner ever. And unlike Billy Butler and the hulking DHs, Wieters can't hit. I'm pretty sure that the one-legged Kirk Gibson ran faster than Wieters.
You'd be hard pressed to find a ballplayer slower than Wilson Ramos though. He takes little tiny steps which compounds the issue. I think he's the slowest I've ever seen.
The All Molasses Team:
C: Wilson Ramos
1B: Steve Balboni
2B: (lil help)
SS: (lil help)
3B: Floyd Rayford, Pablo Sandoval (tie)
LF: Pete Incaviglia
CF: (lil help)
RF: Rusty Staub
DH: Cecil Fielder, Billy Butler
P: David Wells
All molasses team:
2B: Doug Flynn - journeyman
SS: Cal Ripken - great, but slow
CF: Rick Ankiel - yes he played CF in his 2nd career & Tony Armas
Okay, JE34:
CF: Gorman Thomas
SS: Cal Ripken
. . . and c'mon, man: Daniel Murphy at 2B!
@SM: Gah! Of course, Murph. Already dead to me subconsciously...
Does my heart good to see Floyd Rayford's name. I was a hard-core O's fan back in their heyday from 1964 to 1983, but I had forgotten all about Rayford, LOL. I once heard a story that the O's team bus was flown over by a blimp, and Frank Robinson yelled out, "Rayford, come back!" Frank was actually pretty funny.
As for catcher, I say go low budget with a guy like Suzuki or the guy Texas just cut loose and spend money on starting pitching and a second base bridge. Or...spend, but only a guy like Grandal. The Wieters contract hurt the Nats in so many ways--his production was horrible, but it tied up so much money that could have been used on the bullpen or another starter. We got nothing at catcher, and could have just as well trotted out Severino and Kieboom the past two years and spent the 9 million saved on half of Jake Arrieta's salary. He's not the Arrieta of old, but him or someone like him, would have been a real difference maker as a third starter.
Meanwhile, I say act as if Harper's gone. I don't know who leaked the Nats' offer to Harper, but it sure benefits him and Boras by setting the floor for him. Boras is going to be able to say, nothing less than 300M. Without that offer, he'd be lucky to start at 200M, which is, to my mind, close to what Bryce is worth. Harper/Boras are going to drag this out and try to get someone to bid against themselves the way he did with Chris Davis/Orioles and Nats/Wieters. Nats shouldn't fall for that and should nail down Rendon with a surprisingly high but not insane offer and go after starting pitching and, yes, someone like Suzuki.
If Rizzo is serious about wanting a full-time catcher (which has the subtext of "and we can live with Spencer Kieboom as the backup if the starter plays 120") then yeah, back up the money truck for Grandal right now. It's almost certainly not going to be Realmuto. The Marlins wanted Robles+C.Kieboom last year, and that's not a price we can pay (especially for only two years of Realmuto, doubly especially with no Bryce); someone is going to end up outbidding us.
If not Grandal, then pick between one of the plus-defense/minus-offense guys (Maldanado seems the best option there) or the reverse (Ramos, Suzuki, Chirinos), or maybe grab one of each. I mean, the Red Sox just won the World Series with Sandy Leon as their primary catcher and Christian Vasquez as the other guy, so it's possible to get by with a catcher who's half of a functional baseball player (84 wRC+ was average for a catcher this year); our problem was that Wieters and Severino somehow stank at BOTH offense AND defense and Kieboom gave only meh defense with his stinky bat.
If they do sign Ramos, the main problem is not that he can't play, it's that he can't stay healthy and his inevitable injury will lead to a lot of Kieboom--meaning that they need a stronger backup to pair with him.
I suppose it depends on Read, but I think they need a good catcher in the minors just as much as they need pitchers there. This post shows just how rare it is to have someone like Sal Perez who can catch a ton. You need three viable catchers like you need 8 or 9 starting pitchers.
Saw the Lerner’s squashed the Bryce trade to Houston in July. Go figure. Might have solved our catcher problem? I think the return would have been pretty good, considering WE’RE NOT GETTING BRYCE BACK! Jesus. When you think about where our team currently is, the tradition, history, compared to other franchises around the league... what are the odds that a generational talent wants to stay here. It’s like he’s been dating a 4 for seven years and now has the chance to go date a few 9 or 10’s... what would you do?? I was for trading him at the deadline, but didn’t know what deals were out there. Apparently we had one in place but Dan Sny— I mean the Lerners kept Rizzo from doing his job... again.
The Nats aren't in position to sign more than 1 player who received a qualifying offer and that should be a pitcher, so that rules Grandal out. He is probably too expensive too. With that said, the top offensive option is Ramos and with Kieboom proving to be an adequate backup, I think they could keep Ramos healthy with him playing 4 games/week and Kieboom playing 2-3 games/week. If not Ramos, maybe they go the defensive option with Maldonado, but I want to caution that just cause Boston won with weak catching, doesn't mean the Nats could. Their team was very good and very deep, so they were able to sacrifice catching.
I agree with Anon. C is a priority, and we need to improve to “decent” but we should not be dumping the money cart for C, because honestly we need to use those resources for pitching more IMO. Ps you really think Marlins are going to find a team to deal better than Robles and Carter Kieboom (a top 5 prospect AND and top 50 prospect) for 2 years of a stud? Maybe, but not much better. Why do you think he’s still there? No. I think the Marlins will eventually settle for just Robles as the offseason can wears on if we are willing. I would if we sign Bryce. PPS what about the Cardinals ready for prime time prospect Catcher who is now blocked? I think the industry views him as a no doubt every day type of guy. Though you need a better backup if you’re going to trade for a rookie.
How about Robles, Kieboom, and Cate for Paxton?
I just don't get why these Robles trade proposals still persist on this site...guys, if they trade Robles so they can play Soto, Eaton and Harper...they have no one capable of being an every day centerfielder. Yes, you can play MAT, but that busts the entire point of having an outfield with offensive clout.
Too much for Paxton, I'd say. I would do that deal if I could get Kluber and had Harper signed. With all those strikeouts, I'd care less about the outfield.
@Anonymous:
Because signing Harper leaves the team with big holes that need filling, and no cash to fill them with in FA. Last season, they showed their willingness to play Harper in CF regardless of how crappy his defense was. In 2017 they showed their willingness to play Eaton there, again despite poor defense (in 2018 Eaton stayed in the corner basically due to the lingering effects of his injuries, which we hope he will be past regardless of what position they put him in). Those two things together suggest that IF Harper gets resigned (which I personally think they should have no part of doing, and if they DO do it it's going to be because Lerner got Full Wietersed by Boras. Again), then trading Robles is the one thing they can do to help plug the holes at C, SP, and/or RP that they desperately need to fill. Trading Eaton would be the better move, but he's coming off injury, is more expensive, and is not an all-world prospect, so therefore he's not going to bring back the kind of value it took to get him two years ago.
@blovy8: Maybe we could get them to kick in Yan Gomes or something as well (or we could eat Kipnis's contract and hope he rebounds at 2B)? But yeah, Robles AND Kieboom for two years of anybody not named Trout is too much, especially with an extra prospect on the side.
Well said Dezo. Just hope the Lerner family read that too. My only sliver of hope is that I’m fairly certain Bryce is not coming back, regardless of what we offer him. Dude wants a change of scenery and I don’t blame him. He’ll make someone else better and we’ll be better with his albatross AAV contract. My hopes for the team rest on the hopes that the face of the franchise DOESN’T want to come back... how crazy does that sound?! Sad but true.
Better without his contract**
I should just go to bed.
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