Offeseaon Position Discussion : Starting Pitching

Last year discussion revisited

We assumed it would be the usual 4 with a cheap FA in the 5th role and it was with Hellickson filling that final spot. It became clear as the season started that the Nats plan was to use Hellickson less as a traditional starter and more as a 4-5 inning pitcher and use the bullpen to soak up the rest of the innings. This made sense in a way with a very solid 1-4 and a newly filled out bullpen. Then baseball happened

The Nats would suffer injuries and Martinez would push the pen early trying to compensate and get wins. The pen would begin to suffer. The starting pitching would hold through May. Hellickson pitching insanely well and the Nats looking like starting pitching would carry them to another division title. But then Gio and Roark would have terrible Junes, Strasburg would check in for his annual one-month vacation, and Hellickson would get hurt as well.  The Nats in house options (J-Rod and Fedde) would prove inadequate and the pen was no longer there to bail them out - now overused and trying to help out Roark and Gio. At the same time the offense sputtered and the Nats dug themselves a hole they wouldn't climb out of.

After the disaster of June, the 2nd half would be a mixed bag Roark would recover in the 2nd half, Gio wouldn't, Strasburg would return ,and Hellickson wouldn't quite finish out the season. They did ok, but the Nats needed great to come back and they weren't great.

Oh yeah. And Max nearly won another Cy Young.

Presumed Plan :Max, Stras, Roark, a free agent/ trade for a good pitcher, someone in-house

Reasoning on Presumed Plan :With Gio gone the Nats need to fill two spots in the rotation. While they might be tempted to go with another Hellickson type, Strasburg's continual missed time and Roark off-month should give them enough pause to understand that's not a plan for a contender.  The Nats need to bring in a real pitcher. We all hope it's a Corbin/Kuechel type or someone good and young in trade but it doesn't necessarily have to be that. I could see a trade for a decent rotation filler type like Clayton Richard.  Regardless it has to be someone because you can't expect two guys to shake out from what the Nats have on hand.

Why leave a spot for someone in-house? Well they have two guys they really want to decide on. Joe Ross, who came back from TJ surgery to look perfectly adequate, and Erick Fedde, the arm they bet on when they sent Giolito, Lopez, and Dunning away. Both these guys are under Nats control for a few more years and if they can develop into even a Roark-lite that would help the Nats immensely as they try to budget pitching for the next few seasons along with everyone else.

Problems with Presumed Plan : Starting pitching is hard to get right and a big FA contract here can be trouble. If they don't go with a big FA signing though all it would take is Strasburg to get hurt for a little longer this year or Roark to pitch like... well he has over the past couple season, for the rotation to stop being a strength.  There is always the option to deal for quality but the Nationals have balked previously when it came down to giving up what's necessary to get that back.

Leaving the fifth spot for one of the in-house options to fill is also a problem if only because the Nats track record is not great. Since Stras and ZNN came up in 2010 the Nats have developed one starter - Roark. That's 8 seasons of nothing. Sure, part of that is lack of need. They could focus their efforts elsewhere with the starters they had on hand and they used a lot of high round picks as trade bait.  But you have to believe they felt someone would break out by now. Of the Top 5 round draft picks they bet on Solis became a reliever. Turnbull, Purke, Mooneyham, Voth, Cole, Johansen, Dickey, Van Orden, Rivera not Jr all haven't come through. Who's to say anything the Nats have decided to keep is suddenly going to break this trend?

One year, eventually, Max won't be MAX anymore. He is well into his 30s now.

My take :  The Nats are a pitching team and have always had top notch starting pitching. Last year was the first year in the Nats window that they've dropped below 7th in starter ERA (they were 13th). This is their identity and it's a winning formula. That's why it's hard for me to believe they won't go after a top notch pitcher. However, I don't now exactly what the Nats plan would be here. The Nats are rightly cautious on FA types and in trade these types don't come around all that often. Are they willing to sell a Robles+ for a Snell, if that deal would even be considered?

I think the Nats should do something different then I think they are going to do. I think make a trade and sign a guy and forget about the in house options. Maybe, in fact, deal them away. I'd trade for Chris Archer. He was a dependable pitcher with health before last year, an underrated quality, and his injuries last year were more fluky and less worrisome (and still only cost him 50 innings). He would only be a one-year guy but I think they could extend him with ease and at a time where you might be able to do it for a bargain price. He's also likeable which is a good replacement for Gio, who was also likeable in a sea of otherwise forgettable Nats. The Pirates are trying to reset to win in the 2020-on time frame around a set of four young pitchers, of which Archer isn't one, and what they need is that MI type the Nats could give them... if the Nats will bite the bullet and not grip tightly to their current best prosepcts Kieboom and Garcia.

I would sign JA Happ, because (1) I'd like a lefty and (2) his age means you are going to be able to get him on a deal that could be two-years and a vesting option.  It's a riskier move, yes, because of his age, but one that has a much shorter time frame of pain if it does go wrong. And he's been relatively healthy and I value that.

Out of the box suggestion :
Oh you are going to hate this. Look, the Nats have one thing everyone wants despite the cost. Max Scherzer. Now, you don't deal Max if you are planning on winning. You deal Max if you are planning on rebuilding for the future. But that might not be the worst idea. The Nats have talent enough, in Max and Rendon, to bring back guys that can play if not, right now then debut next year. The best fit for Max would be the Yankees. They have the deepest farm system of the current contenders, the deep pockets to cover his salary but I won't push that. Just let it be known I wouldn't trade Max for anything less than near ready starter plus. But understand no option will be palatable for you. To the Astros for Forrest Whitley? Back home to the Cardinals for Alex Reyes+? To the A's for Jesus Luzardo? (Yep that's right). Then you deal Rendon for an 1B or C everyone likes. Can you stomach Rendon on the Dodgers for Kiebert Ruiz and Gavin Lux? or maybe more pitching. Dustin May?

Rebuilding, really rebuilding, is terrible because it's giving up on winning now for maaaybe winning later. But you know you have Soto and Robles here for a while and you know you have aging pitching and little in the pipeline. Are you willing to pay for more pitching in two years when expensive Max and Stras may be on the books and starting to break down in some way? If not, there's only one move.