Nationals Baseball: Dozier

Thursday, January 10, 2019

Dozier

There's a couple ways of looking at it. My take boils down to this :

I think there's a fair chance at a complete bust with Dozier. Therefore I think there's more risk here than a contending team needs to take on for that money. Also I think the cost is a little high. Therefore, I think there is more value for that money that the Nats could have come away with. At the same time if I project what I think Dozier will do in 2019 I'd say around .235 and 25 homers and slightly below average defense which would be perfectly acceptable.

This all needs the context of time. If the Nats close up shop today, I'll see it worse than if the Nats keep spending money or make smart trades. Get a reliever and a starter then who cares if I think Dozier was a risk worth 4-5 million. They got the pieces they needed anyway. Get Bryce and I'll see a commitment to going for it that includes overpaying to get best team, and Dozier fits into that in some way. If the 2nd base market remains high and LeMahieu and Lowrie and Asdrubal all go for noteicably more, and even the middling guys like Harrison and Walker get 3-4-5 million. I'll admit I misread the market and Dozier's contract was perfectly fine.

So it's a deal in limbo. It's not bad in itself. But in context it might be.

(and of course YOU CAN MAKE A BAD DEAL THAT MAKES YOUR TEAM BETTER. Those are two separate evaluations) 

I'll have more tomorrow on why I feel the way I do about the risk.

11 comments:

Cardinal Ximinez said...

2017 2b Gold Glove. 2016-17 .270 avg 38 hrs .350 obpct. 2018 played thru injury. an offseason has to help recovery. which version will we get? a good glove, good pop, decent bat and good clubhouse and attitude can go a long way. i'll miss Daniel Murphy, but Dozier might lessen that pain?

cass said...

Pity we couldn't have gotten Grandal if he was going to go so cheaply. Wish Dozier, I wonder if the Nats have once again settled for the not best player available thinking the best would cost too much and then it turns out the best is acquired cheaply.

Anonymous said...

I’m sure that Rizzo is doing his due diligence on all the guys who are available. Keep in mind that he is certainly operating under an approximate Lerner-imposed payroll ceiling. And he likely has to keep enough room open for that day (which is probably coming soon) when Bryce comes crawling back to us on his hands and knees.

The projection dorks say about 2.5 WAR for Dozier. If he is even close to that, it’s a fine deal for us.

Worst case scenario, he turns out to be a worthless turd like Matt Wieters was and we just threw away $9 million, which is practically nothing. I see very little risk and potentially a decent amount of reward here.

sirc said...

Meanwhile, Jed Lowrie to the Mets for 2 years, 10 million per.

The Mets are collecting infielders.

PotomacFan said...

Clearly, the Nats wanted a one-year deal for 2B. That makes sense if Kieboom continues to progress. Some of the better candidates (e.g. Lowrie) wanted multi-year deals. I agree with Anonymous that 1 year at $9 million is not much of a risk, and there is a good chance for upside. The downside is that Howie plays second base.

Johnny Callison said...

Would have preferred Lowrie on a two year with Kieboom as a super-sub in 2020. But Lowrie rarely has stayed injury-free, so maybe the Nats thought stick to the one year with Dozier and move the young guys in during 2020. Still I'd have liked a club option on Dozier for 2020 in case he's good again and Kieboom isn't quite ready.

What are the Mets doing with Cano AND Lowrie (not to mention McNeilRosario-Frazier-Smith)? If I were Lowrie I wouldn't have taken this job without a guarantee of 2B or 3B. But maybe there's a master plan. They have some great depth there, but maybe another move is coming.

Mets seems to have sort of plan. We'll see if it works.

ssln said...

Callison & Sirc

It should be obvious to everyone that the Mets have an overall game plan. It is simple to understand. They plan to sign thirteen infielders and then convert six of them to pitchers in spring training. Infielders are cheaper than pitchers and have less wear and tear on their arms so the whole thing makes perfect sense.
If only two thirds of the infielders make a successful transition to pitching, it will be deemed the steal of the century. The new GM for the Mets is a former player's agent and he read Harper for years. This is just one of Harper's thinking outside the box scenarios so let's give credit where credit is due.
Personally, I can't wait to see how it all plays out.

G Cracka X said...

Craig Edwards likes the signing: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/nationals-gain-upside-with-brian-dozier/

And I do too. Dozier projects for 2.5 WAR next year, based on Steamer and Depth Charts. 2.5 WAR for 1 ysr/$9 mil is a bargain. And yes, he could be <1 WAR, like last year. No biggie: we got Howie and Difo and Kieboom to cover that, if necessary. But the upside is that he puts up a 3+ WAR season, which even for a player in decline, is certainly within the realm of possibility.

G Cracka X said...

Also, this is another player that fits in the Boz noted pattern of 'low floor, high ceiling' for Nats acquisitions this offseason

BxJaycobb said...

@Cass: Well, Lowrie at 2/20 means that AAV is similar but at age 34 he also is signed for 2 years. So not really similar money money even if you prefer Lowrie; and then Grandal it’s sort of opposite, it may have been 1 year but it was 18.25m, whereas we’re spending 10m total on catchers, so clearly we’re saving a ton in AAV but not in fewer years. In both cases our deals are for less money. Regarding Dozier, I’ve thought about it a bit. This is a low floor high ceiling player. He could be total unplayable bust and he could be a 4-5 WAR player who suffered from a bad knee all of last year. But I think it’s a high upside risk I sort of like because we have a Kendrick safety net if he bombs and also it’s 1 year. So you could argue that the more volatile 1 contract makes more sense for Nats at 2B than a more Stable performance 2 yr 2B contract, with Kieboom coming especially. Fine move. Not jumping out of my shoes, but fine move.

Cardinal Ximinez said...

Degrom was a ss...