Nationals Baseball: STILL WIN 3 guys

Wednesday, September 11, 2019

STILL WIN 3 guys

And you guys wanted Davey to be MOY...

Before the Mets series the Nats had built up a nice little lead on everyone. They swept the Cubs and took care of business against Baltimore and Miami and had a 3.5 game lead on the closest competitor, and 7+ on everyone else? They've since gone 2-6 which is setting up someone to make a move.

But only one team really has. Over that stretch Milwaukee went 6-2 to pick up four games on the Nats. But the Nats still have a 2.5 game lead on their closest competitor because the success worked backward. The closest team to the Nats, the Cubs, only managed a 3-5 run at the same time. The next closest, 7 game out Philly, went 5-4.  The Mets and Arizona both went 5-3 but being 8+ games out they are still a good bit away.

So the good news is that no one close made that run and the way the wins have fallen still only one team is a series away from catching the Nats if everything were to go wrong.

The bad news is all the competitors have formed a massive slime of mediocrity that is slowly closing the gap on the Nats and creating a situation where there may be 3-4 teams ready to take advantage of a prolonged Nats stumble.

What's worse? I'd say actually having a real threat turn up is worse. I'd rather have 10 teams get within 2 games then have one get a 2 game lead on me. But this still isn't good.

The offense is withering and it's in the way I thought it might - teams are avoiding pitching to Soto and Rendon (9 walks in 50 PAs in past week) and daring the other guys to beat them. Asdrubal has risen to the occasion but that's it. Turner is doing ok, Gomes has two homers which I guess is the best you can hope for given Suzuki being hurt. Part of the problem is the logjam at 2nd where you might put Dozier or Kendrick but need to stick Asdrubal there.One of them could play first but they feel the need to get Zimm and Adams at bats.

At this point I think we've got maaaybe one more loss to play around with in the next three games. One more loss and then we move into threat level orange or whatever. Zimm sits, Adams sits, Kendrick plays first (or DHs if it's that last MIN game), Cabrera plays, Dozier plays if it's the last MIN game. That's it until you feel safe again.

Any how let's hope it doesn't come to that and the Nats win the next three. Make it moot, Nats!

32 comments:

G Cracka X said...

Another relevant point is that Yelich is now out for the season. He's a fine young man, and we certainly don't wish that upon anyone. That being said, it likely dampens Milwaukee's chances (hard to say by how much).

This stretch is brutal for the Nats. Eight more games against tough division leaders. If they can get through this stretch in one piece, they should be OK. Of course, there's no guarantee of that. We now officially have Meaningful September Baseball(tm). I wish we didn't, but on the flip side, its better than being totally out of it by now (as other commenters mentioned). Let's Go Nats (and teams playing against NL WC threats!)

Sammy Kent said...

Terrible news about Christian Yelich. That's a guy I would have loved to have had in a Nats uniform. That Miami outfield of he, Ozuna, and Stanton was the best in baseball at the time by far.

It was inevitable that the Nationals offense would drop with the thermometer. Their best hope is to face some less-than-stellar pitching and get a few hanging curve balls and sliders they can whack. It's the time for small ball, situational hitting, get 'em on, get 'em over, get 'em in baseball....and the veteran hitters (Kendrick, Rendon, Eaton, Zim, Suzuki, Cabrera) need to show the young'uns--and their idiot batting coach--how it's done. (The caveat being that Rendon is being pitched around, Kurt is hurt, and while Zim KNOWS how to hit situationally, he's as liable to ground into a double play as he is to punch one in the gap.)

coolsny said...

They really should do some kind of 30 for 30 on that Marlins team circa 2016-2017...titled "What Could Have Been...". Dive into the team they had and then also interlace the story of the group (Jeter et. al.) that bought the team and what it took to finance the deal (which ultimately made them ship everyone away).

They had Ozuna, Yelich, Stanton, JT Realmuto, Dee Gordon, Derek Dietrich, Jose Fernandez (RIP)...

How did we not get to see this team materialize?

They also had Ichiro AND Lombardozzi! And Barry Bonds as hitting coach!

Player: "Hey Coach B, I want to work on my launch angle!"

BB: *Grins, goes into his "first aid kit,* "Sure thing, buddy!"

Ole PBN said...

^^ speaking of documentaries, ya'll should check out "Screwball" on Netflix.

Sammy, I'm with you but situational hitting only matters to those who care about it. As Murphy put it, "its more valuable for me to be standing on second base." For a while, I thought it was selfishness or ignorance, but players actually believe in the launch-angle theory and want to drive the ball in the gap instead of slapping singles and bunting guys over. Ted Williams (or someone else maybe) once said something like "every at bat, you get one pitch that you can hit 450 feet. Don't miss it." Ryan Zimmerman, MAT, and a few other fools I don't want to mention prefer to swing at sliders low and away in favorable counts. Its all about having a plan and not deviating until you get to two strikes and then all bets are off: protect the plate.

I think it's ignorant to think otherwise, personally. When Zimm hit into the DP with the bases loaded the other night, on a low and inside slider in a favorable count... I threw up my hands, "THAT was the pitch you wanted, Ryan? Really?!"

JWLumley said...

I'm not sure Sabermetrics has been able to capture the potency of a balanced lineup, that is to say a lineup without easy outs or guys who give away AB's. When Suzuki is out and Adams/Zim are in the game, the Nats have 3 near automatic outs in there. This gives the pitcher a breather and this is really heightened when Eaton is out. Sure, you can have a guy who's scuffling in a lineup, and usually will, but a good hitter who is scuffling is still a threat, while someone like Gomes, MAT, 2nd half Adams or 2019 Zim, just aren't threats. Sure they'll run into one every now and again, but pitchers do that and no one considers them a threat.

These are spots in the lineup that offer the pitcher a reprieve. Fall behind 2-1 to Soto with no one on base? Walk him, because after Cabrera you get Adams/Zim and Cabrera doesn't have enough power himself to force you to pitch to Soto. Besides, all of these guys are relatively slow and good double play candidates. The Nats badly need Eaton and Suzuki to get healthy or this lineup is capable of prolonged slumps like we say in the beginning of the season. IMHO

Mythra said...

@Ole PBN: I was right there with you. And 2 of those guys on base got there via walks where he wasn't even close to the zone. That was clearly a take it unless it's straight, fast, and down the middle situation.

Also agree with @JWLumley about the automatic holes in the lineup. When the team offense was rolling, guys were working 3-2, 3-0, 3-1 counts like crazy. Next guy up mentality. Not sure if adding in Zim and Cabrera messed with that flow, or if missing Eaton got everyone out of rhythm, but they need to find that groove again. I just don't know if you can find that with guys GIDP and failing to score a guy from 3rd with nobody out.

Some of the same warts from May starting to show again. And Davey is no threat to win MOY, Harper. Unless he changes his last name to Johnson to confuse voters.

Johnny Callison said...

Heard Ray Knight blaming Adams' slump on the looming presence of Zim and then the return of Zim. It's pretty unscientific, obviously, because Adams' slump started about ten days before Zim's return, but the noises about Zim "looking good in rehab" were already starting up by the third week of August. Still if Adams is so easily rattled, then that's his problem, isn't it?

The Nats playing Zim so much is worrisome--shows that DM doesn't want to think and probably shows some overconfidence about having the WC sewn up prematurely. It's like he's getting Zim in shape for the post-season, but he's sacrificing games by not playing his two hottest hitters in Cabrera and Kendrick as much as possible. The WC is NOT sewn up. Meanwhile, they are implying that Max is slotted in to start the WC game. Well, get there first, right? They need to get back to playing to win every game--it's kind of like they (Rizzo, DM, the team) put it on cruise control at the worst time--right after they got through a good run on an easy stretch of season, but right as they hit a really hard stretch where they needed to do okay in order to lock it up. They are NOT doing okay.

The schedule doesn't help the Nats, but they could still stagger in since the Mets and Phils are all but done and the DBacks have lost their momentum. That leaves the Brewers who have so many holes and just lost their best player. The compeitition is not impressive.

Still it's rather unsettling to think they could close out the season the way they started it, with a brutal run of weak ball. With the intact lineup and a slightly improved BP, they're set up NOT do blow it, but it still seems possible unfortunately.

I think DM gets manager of the middle of the season since he kept them from imploding. He still tries to avoid thinking and apparently never has a Plan B, so no MOY.

Harper said...

coolsny - a terrible confluence of circumstances - Loria, one of the worst people ever, was looking into selling the team. You could make the team more attractive by making them a winner BUT 1) the Marlins had like the worst TV contract in baseball that was going until 2020. and 2) they had NO pitching. Buying starting pitching was an option around Jose Fernandez but when he drugged up and killed him and his friends accidentally that meant even more expense. Given that there was no reason to believe Yelich would do this selling it all off made more sense.

Basically if they weren't selling - they probably would have tried a patchwork rotation fix which might have been enough
If Fernandez doesn't die - they possibly bring in another big time pitcher and try to win - which might have worked
If they had a better TV deal - well maybe Loria doesn't sell or maybe they are more inclined to spend more money.
if they knew Yelich could do this - they might have still traded Stanton but used that money to try to fix the pitching around a Yelich lead line-up

But the actual situation was 0-4.

Jay said...

It could be that the Nats can beat up on bad teams and good teams in a funk (see the Cubs series), but they really don't seem to have anything for good teams. They scored a total of 1 run against the first 3 Atlanta starters and 0 last night. They scored 0 against Syndergaard and did score 4 against deGrom. The starting pitching has done well over this stretch for the most part. The bullpen has been awful making close games no longer close. However, you can't beat teams 0-0. The offense and lack thereof has just killed them. I disagree that Rendon and Soto are being pitched around. I think they are being pitched carefully, but there have been times when both have been up with a chance to do some damage and came up short. Zim should change his name to 50-50. He's just as likely to get a big hit or ground into a double play. (Ok maybe not 50-50 maybe more like 70-30 DP vs hit). The next two guys with Minnesota are not as good. They need to find a way to win the next two and all of the angst goes away, maybe for the rest of the season.

19 to go. Get to 90 wins, that's 11-8. Other teams have to go: Cubs 13-5, Brewers 14-4, Phillies 15-3, Dbacks 15-2, Mets 16-2.
9-10 down the stretch leaves them at 88 wins. Cubs 11-7, Brewers 12-6, Phillies 13-5, Dbacks 13-4, Mets 14-4.

G Cracka X said...

Its official: Soto followed up an amazing rookie season with an improved 2019!

https://www.mlb.com/news/juan-soto-has-gotten-even-better-for-the-nationals-in-2019

Interesting side note about Daniel Murphy referring to ground balls as 'seven-percenters'. I think he's saying that ground balls only result in extra bases 7% of the time.

coolsny said...

@Harper

What I want is a Congressional investigation and report on whether Loria and the Marlins front office knew what they had in Yelich and Realmuto. WHAT did they know and WHEN did they know it, a la Watergate.

Defrauding the fans!

Mythra said...

Ugh. Loria was, and still is, the worst thing ever to happen to baseball. Twice. Fire Sales and tanking for picks seemed to be his specialty.

I know one of the early season interviews with Jeter they asked him if he was tanking on purpose, and he said he wasn't, but I gotta say he sure learned the Loria style of team ownership pretty quick...

G Cracka X said...

Good article on Doolittle:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sean-doolittles-high-stakes-fight-against-pressure-and-time/

Also, interesting ending note about the struggles of other formerly dominant relievers (Treinen, Diaz, Kimbrel, Jeffress, and Iglesias)

BxJaycobb said...

@Harper I don’t really buy the “teams have finally decided to walk Rendon and Soto.” 9 times in 50 ABs honestly isn’t that elevated a walk rate for those two. You’re talking going from like I dunno, 12% BB rate to like 18. Mostly Soto and Rendon haven’t been doing as much damage in last week and nobody else has done much.

BxJaycobb said...

G Cracka X: and Soto has gotten actually substantially better on defense. Barely below average according to metrics. He improved more on defense than offense. 5.0 WAR this year and counting. Although I hope his thumb is ok.

SuburbanSteve said...

@GCracka I really liked the article on Soto...I really appreciated the education (at least for me) about the launch angle craze being more than just "hit HRs!" but more about not feeding GBs to the infield playmakers, and hitting XBHs. I'm amazed by what Soto has done!!

Sammy Kent said...

Two runs in the first inning and all from small ball offense. Double, BB, single, single, and two runs on the board without a ball leaving the yard. I love it. We need more of that. Daniel Murphy will never prove the superiority of the launch angle approach by being the ONE AND ONLY disciple of it-- out of the scores that have adopted it-- that has had his career so dramatically improved by it. All he's proved is that it worked for him. He can stick his seven percent in his hat and walk around with it till he falls dead. A ground ball hit is still one hundred percent better than a fly ball out.

No matter how much the launch angle craze is wrapped up in sophisticated sounding sabermetric physics whatnot, it still comes down to the basic tenet that hitting it in the air as far as possible is STATISTICALLY better than hitting a little line drive or ground ball regardless of the situation. And I say horsehockey, just as I say horsehockey to that weirdo high school football coach that always goes for two and never punts no matter what the score or field position is because "statistics prove blah blah blah." What is "true" in the abstract is not necessarily true in the reality, and it certainly should not be the hub around which all other strategies revolve. That is stupid.

I got so tired of hearing the talking heads say how frustrated Bryce Harper was at having to face the shift every at bat. Oh, poor Bryce, you're frustrated with the shift? THEN BUNT THE GOTDANG BALL TO THIRD BASE!!!! Do that ten times for ten hits and the shift will be gone. I'll guarantee you, statistically and otherwise, ten or even seven base hit bunts in 15 ABs are a darn sight better than one dinger every 15 ABs. (Yes, Joe Maddon walked him every time, but that's different. That was playing with Bryce's head--and Zim's, and it worked. Bunting for a hit against the shift is succeeding against the other team's purposely designed strategy to get him out.)

Instead of "Hit it in the air" I'd rather play by Wee Willie Keeler's mantra, "Hit 'em where they ain't." Learn how to hit to all fields and all places, how to bunt effectively, and how to beat the shift. The reason teams keep playing the shift is because they know the guy at the plate is too stubborn, too stupid, or too schooled to hit the other way. I love dingers as much as anybody, and there are situations that call for a power approach. But my old Little League coach's rule still rings true: just get a hit.

G Cracka X said...

I think we all agree that hitting is situational: there are times to swing for the fences, and there are times to play 'small ball'. The difference of opinion is in the frequency of how often each style should be employed.

Interestingly enough, Boz wrote an article talking about how the Nats have a balanced offensive approach:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/nationals/the-nats-offense--balanced-exciting-and-old-school--is-a-throwback-style-thats-getting-results/2019/08/27/d372b000-c904-11e9-be05-f76ac4ec618c_story.html

"In a slugging-obsessed, monochromatic, three-true-outcomes sport, the Nats play a version of the game that emphasizes every offensive tool — including some that many in the game now disdain, such as stealing bases, contact hitting and eschewing strikeouts. The results, especially as the team has taken Manager Dave Martinez’s ideas to heart in recent months, have been a bit mind-boggling." (from the article)

I think the stats back Boz's thesis: entering today in the Senior Circuit, Nats are T-6th in HRs, 1st in stolen bases, 3rd in Batting Average, 2nd in On-base percentage, and have the 2nd-lowest strikeout rate.

Perhaps Kevin Long should be extended rather than fired? For me, its hard to say, because I don't know how much difference a hitting coach makes.


Mr. T said...

Look, these guys are professionals. Hitting baseballs is their job. Although it is fun to imagine Kevin Long showing up like okay, listen up losers, no more hitting grounders, see, you're gonna hit fly balls or you're gonna run till the cows come home, see? And the Nats are all like, yessir, of course sir, right away sir. And then there's a runner on first and less than 2 outs and the batter is thinking man, I'd sure love to do some situational hitting right now but I'm scared of ol Coach Kev--oops, popped it up on the infield, oh well, at least Coach Kev won't be mad at me!

Anonymous said...

I feel like I'm in a horror movie where we're being chased by a man with a giant baseball on his head. And every time I think we've vanquished Mr. Met, he pops out from around the corner and start trying to invade our stadium.

Someone find me a pit of molten steel to drop him into.

Ole PBN said...

GCX thats great insight. Those rankings look good to me, in particular the low strikeout rate. Guys who K a ton are lineup killers. Put the ball in play - anything can happen.

G Cracka X said...

@Anon 11:44AM Funny! Honestly, I was happy with the fact that the Mets won their last three. It basically took the Snakes off the table in terms of passing the Nats. That being said, if there's one team currently fighting to get into the WC that feels like it could pull off a 8-2, or a 9-1, it would be the Mets. They just seem super streaky this year, for whatever reason. Now that they've helped us out, they should feel free to exit stage right.

Matt said...

The dream scenario is I think as many teams as possible tying for WC2 spot -- forces teams to burn their best pitchers and wear out their bullpens, while giving the Nats a day to rest. The Brewers/Cubs tie is great; now if only one or two more teams could join them...

Cautiously Pessimistic said...

@Matt,

that would be the dream yes. Fangraphs did an awesome analysis a few days back about the tiebreaker system and I WANT CHAOS https://blogs.fangraphs.com/team-entropy-2018-your-re-introduction-to-chaos/

Anonymous said...

A four-way tie for WC2? Wow, that would be insane. So if one of those teams advances to the NLDS, they would have played in 3 sudden-death games (potentially 4, depending on game time and if they needed to win to be part of the four-way tie). Whoever that is, that poor fanbase!

blovy8 said...

Those could be exciting games to watch though...if you have the proper attitude.

Max said...

Are you all still down on Zimmerman? I agree I'd rather see Kendrick more, but Zimm has been pretty solid since returning (and had a good rehab stint in AA).

Anonymous said...

Ryan Zimmerman is the quintessential "a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while." I get the sense that when he strikes out, he doesn't know why. When he hits a home run, he doesn't know why. No plan with this guy at all, just "swinging."

"When you're going good," he says, "everything feels good and everything feels in sync. When you're not, everything feels disconnected. Obviously, I’m not going to hit .420. You just show up each day and do your routine and hope it stays that way for a long time." - Zimm on his hot 2017 start

JE34 said...

Took in my very first Nats road game last night. Target Field is a great park. Club seats are such that you can almost high-five the guys in the press box. Minnesota-nice fans, good eats in and around the park. Great stuff. Also good that Nats 2.0 beat Nats 1.0.

I think there were about 10 Nats fans in the place. The stadium is decorated with Twins history that of course begins in 1961. No love for their DC roots that I could see.

BxJaycobb said...

@Sammy Kent I can’t believe I have to go through this with you again about the bunting to beat the shift. Sammy. (1) you don’t want Juan Soto or Rendon or Harper taking the possibility of a XBH off the table. (2) you realize that simply WILLING your bunt to be a hit doesn’t make it so, right? You have to direct the bunt so it is not at the pitcher, not foul, on the ground, and also hard enough that it gets away from the catcher and past where the pitcher can come get it. You do understand that can’t be accomplished all the time right? In fact it’s difficult. These guys are facing 95 mph with crazy movement. You’re essentially asking players to say “okay, my at bat will have 0% chance of being XBH, and SOME chance of being a single, though not a super high one.” That’s not a good idea. And if you DO get a few down, they’re not going to change the shift. Want to know why? Because they (1) know it can’t be *reliably done, even by a guy who practices bunting; and (2) wouldn’t mind a Juan Soto/Bellinger type beast ending up with a single IF ALL GOES RIGHT FOR HIM. Remember a couple games ago when Robles saw that all he had to do was push a bunt past the pitcher towards the second baseman and he would have a hit, so he tried, and he got a decent pitch to bunt but didn’t push it enough towards first and the pitcher got it? Well that’s a guy who is a decent bunter with blazing speed and he couldn’t get it down perfectly. Stop. Asking. Guys. To bunt. It’s a bad waste of an out in almost every situation. (Exceptions for pitchers hitting and a few others.)

coolsny said...

This is the Adam Eaton we always wanted!

Mr. T said...

You're wrong, Bx. Small-ball, Wee Willie Keelerish situational hitting, manufacturing runs, scrappy base knocks, sacrifices and team chemistry are what win ball games.

Seriously though, why should baseball players today try to be Wee Willie Keeler when just hitting the juiced ball in the air gives you a good chance at a home run? I'd much rather see a pitchers' duel then a slugfest, and find the owners' assumption that more home runs is good for the fans to be narrow-minded and frankly makes the game less interesting. But you can't blame the players (or their coaches, whatever their impact may be) for using a particular approach in an environment that rewards that approach.