Monday Quickie - Final Week Reset

The Nats are doing something.  Mainly I think waiting to see if Soto is awesome enough and Bryce falters enough (and the Phillies fail) so that Soto can win the MVP.  This past weekend was finally a cool down as Cincy - a good team actually trying for something - pitched around him and otherwise looked to contain him rather than see if their pitchers could challenge him. 1 single in 8 ABs. A lot of walks though (7) and only 1 strike out so you know - it's just luck of the draw really. 

The point though was the rest of baseball is looking at a possible furious finish somewhere and early this week might help set that up.  Since we're all baseball fans here, let's try to enjoy this pre-playoff playoffs. 

 What's (pretty much) set? 

The AL division winners and very likely their order.  The Rays and White Sox are officially in and the Astros are in an "only an epic collapse and epic run" situation, so we'll use a heavy pencil for them.  That same situation applies for the #1 seed as Tampa at 97 wins has 6 more wins than the Astros (91) who in turn have 3 more than the White Sox. That last is not a given but 3 is at the limits of what I consider a workable comeback when there are only 6-7 games left.  When you can be perfect and the other guy has to be under .500... yeah that's a tall ask. I mean it COULD happen but let's go ahead and assume it won't

The NL Central  The Brewers might have been the best team in baseball from the end of May through the end of August and were so far ahead of the Cardinals that they haven't played well and they still have a 7 game lead despite the Cardinals not losing for 3 weeks. 

The Cards will be WC2 - It's 6 games so literally it is a "lose all, they win all" situation to knock them out. I might consider that around 4 games. Not at 6. Not with no H2H left

The NL order - It'll be the West 1st, the East last and the Brew Crew in the middle. The gaps are pretty crazy, currently 8 games on one side and 10.5 on the other.

What isn't? 

The AL Wild Card - The Yanks just swept Boston to keep them from hiding with the WC1, but they were behind so it doesn't clear up who's in and out.  The Yanks have a one game lead on WC2 Boston, who has a 1 game lead on Toronto, who have a 1 game lead on Seattle, who have a 1 game lead on Oakland.  Any loss is a brutal loss of ground on someone. 

The NL East - the Phillies did their job but the Braves got the embarrassingly stumbling Padres and swept them away.  The Phillies are 2.5 games out with a 3 game series between the two this week. Losing the series all but ends it, winning the series 2-1 probably not going to be good enough either but it keeps the hope alive. If you are wondering the Braves will only play 161 unless they have to play 162 - a late rainout in Colorado is the missing game. 

The NL West - The Dodgers have the second best record in baseball and are in 2nd place two games behind the "no one gets it either" Giants. The Giants get the D-backs and the Padres so should hold on but THAT'S WHY THEY PLAY THE GAME

Games to watch tonight

Athletics @ Mariners matters for both of them. A loss for Oakland might just knock them out with so many teams ahead and Tor / NY playing eachother. Not impossible but... well you know, I've said it several times

Def games to watch this week

• The rest of A's @ Mariners
• Phillies @ Braves
• Yankees @ Blue Jays  

Rest of the games that matter somewhat

• Red Sox @ Orioles
• Dbacks  @ Giants
• Padres @ Dodgers

If with the Nats out you only root from drama what would be the craziest outcomes? NL is easy :

• Phillies sweep Braves - Phillies up 0.5 games going into the weekend
• Dodgers win 2 more than Giants (either they sweep and Giants go 1-2, or they go 2-1 and Giants get swept) - Tied going into final weekend

AL is tougher. With Toronto and NY playing eachother and Seattle and Oakland doing the same, someone is going to lose ground on someone and Seattle and Oakland really can't afford to. Here are some options.:

• Orioles sweep Boston, Yankees Sweep Toronto, Oakland beats Seattle 2 games to 1.  That gets you Boston one game up on Toronto, Seattle, AND Oakland heading into the final weekend (Yanks would be 4 games up and in in this scenario) 
• Another scenario would be Orioles sweep Boston, Yankees beat Toronto 2-1, Seattle beats Oakland 2-1. This puts Oakland out and the Yankees up 3 with Boston, Toronto, and Seattle all tied for the 2nd WC.
• But if you are going to let Oakland go a better crazy scenario is Baltimore takes 2 of 3 from Boston, Toronto does same to the Yankees, Seattle sweeps Oakland.  Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Seattle are all tied at 89 wins going into the final weekend, but fighting for two spots not one. 
• If you must somehow keep 5 teams going... let's see. Oakland wins 2, Boston gest swept.. I guess Toronto has to win 2 (or sweep - it'll amount to the same, but it's my blog so let's say win 2).  That gets you : Yankees 90 wins, Toronto 89, Boston 88, Seattle/Oakland 87.  If this happens you can get to 5 teams tied at 90 wins to end the season.