The Nats have been a team led by their starting pitching for years. From Strasburg-ZNN-Gio to Max-Stras-Corbin the key to their most successful years has been dominant starting pitching. And so that was the plan for 2021. Max would continue his dominance, Corbin would bounce back from a disappointing 2020 showing, and Strasburg would be ready to go after a full season of rest. Anchor that with whoever of Ross/Fedde shows better and finish up with a dependable 160 innings of 4.50 ERA from Jon Lester and you have yourself another playoff rotation. The best laid plans...
Lester would start off the season hurt letting Fedde and Ross fight things out from the start. Neither looked worthwhile. Meanwhile Strasburg pitched poorly and would only start twice before trying to rest his arm, and Corbin didn't get hurt but pitched like he did. A complete implosion from the start wouldn't be an overstatement. Things got slightly better here and there; Stras came back and pitched well, Corbin improved, Ross was excellent for a month, Fedde ok here and there. However it didn't last. Stras only pitched 3 more times before going down permanently. Corbin would regress back to terrible. Ross would get injured. Fedde wasn't usually here or there. Add in a failure of Lester to pitch well and you have 4 problem spots in your rotation. That's almost everyone! Max pitched well but all this terrible pitching meant the team sold him off and ended the season with a mish-mash of starters.
In the end we did see some starters who might be important for the future. Josiah Gray gave up a lot of homers. Ummm... among the other starters were Paolo Espino (19!), Josh Rogers (6), Sean Nolin (5), Austin Voth, Jefry Rodriguez, and Joan Adon (1 apiece)
Presumed Plan : Strasburg back healthy (at some point), Corbin rebounds, FA signing eat innings, Gray, Fedde/Ross/Rogers/Etc taking up the rest hoping someone comes out looking good. And if that someone is Ross, trading him. Possibly another FA that can eat innings, you know, just in case something in this glorious plan doesn't work out.
Reasons for Presumed Plan : Stras and Corbin are signed forever. They have to be in the plan because even if you wanted to get rid of them you aren't getting value right now. Strasburg may not be healthy but as of early November 2020 your plan is he'll be fine and start most of next season.
Gray you traded for to be part of your next playoff rotation and he's ready to pitch in the majors full-time so you let him.
Given everything that you saw this year though you can't expect all three of these things to turn out in your favor. Given that, you need an arm you can rely on to give you 180 IP so the bullpen isn't destroyed. That's where the FA comes in. The Nats may even go two deep here. They definitely could use another one. Both Stras and Gray will probably be limited in innings somehow and if anything else goes wrong you'd need another reliable arm anyway.
The plan with Stras leaves only one spot and you have a mess of arms you want to run through because that's what the season is about. Fedde, Rogers, Adon - maybe one clicks and you have a starter for a few years. If not they are place holding for Cavalli who should reach the majors later in 2022.
My Take : This is a recipe for disaster. We'll take it from the top. Strasburg's injury type does not lend itself to quick or complete returns to previous form. Ideally you'd might move on but Strasburg is too important and too contractually tied for the Nats to do that. Given that he has four more seasons here, the team's plan for him should be "we are going to be as cautious as necessary in his return to the mound and if that means he doesn't pitch in 2022 - that's ok" not "Hmmm maybe he'll be back for spring!" Regardless I think the recovery will take more time than that and he won't be back for Opening Day and he won't be good when he's back.
Corbin could easily be better and all the Nats really need is 200 IP of 4.00 ERA ball. Just eat up innings without blowing games. I think Corbin can do that. But he IS getting worse - these are deserved ERAs so I'm not sure you can bet on it.
Gray - ok Gray makes sense. But he also may not be good. He should ease into a back of the rotation role but he's far from a guarantee. The number of homers he allowed this year was crazy. Lyles from the Rangers led the majors with 38 allowed. Gray throwing 180 innings would have given up 49. Ideally he'd be the last guy in with some opportunity to go down to AAA for fine tuning if necessary, but he's the Nats 4th and such is going to be relied on to at least hang in the majors. He may not.
The 5th spot is right now a mess. Ross has got the talent but can't stay healthy. Fedde arguably doesn't have it. Rogers looked good but his history says he's bad. Adon is not a prospect. Espino did ok but there's no sense the Nats see him long term as a starter so he'll most likely relieve and spot start. It's a place holder for Cavalli who might be up at the end of the year. He looked good in A+ and AA but rocky in AAA. There's no rush to get him up so it's on his time table. The talent is there though. In the end it's 4 months of dumpster diving your own organization.
So to sum up : Your #5 is a hodgepodge of has beens, never wases, and broken arms. Your #4 is the early odds on favorite to lead the league in homers allowed. Your #2 could be so bad in 2022 that he often won't get past the 5th inning. Your #1 may not give you any starts. Did I about cover it?
That makes your number 3 very important. God I hope they nail this FA signing and by that I mean just bring in a guy who you feel REALLY REALLY good about hitting a lot of innings. I've heard DeSclafani. That's probably ok. But they can't scrimp out here or reach. There's too many innings on the relief staff from everyone else. Someone has to soak those up.
As you can see - I really think the Nats situation is so obviously precarious that a second FA signing, even for just a year, is needed. Rich Hill? Jose Quintana if his shoulder looks ok? Tyler Anderson? You aren't looking for good here, you are looking for acceptable. But I'm not sure the Nats do it. I think they wait out the FA period waiting on Strasburg and then only at the end grab some one off the garbage pile when it's clear Stras is out for a while. Let's hope I'm wrong on many accounts here.
13 comments:
I agree with Harper's ominous forecast. What if Nats implicitly acknowledge their weakness at SP, and fill their bullpen with 4 or 5 additional "starting" pitchers? In other words, recognize that they will only get 3 - 5 innings out of starter #1, and then go to starter #2. Save the 3 or 4 true one-inning relievers for games where the Nats hold a lead going into the 7th. The "double" starter strategy will be even better if the NL moves to a DH. Possible problem: the second line of starters won't necessarily be pitching on predictable days.
I'd advocate for signing Thor if he rejects the QO and will take a 1-year deal. (Presumably he'd rather play somewhere else, so I'm also implicitly advocating for offering enough money that he'd come).
There's a good chance he'll be back to great next year, in which case he'll be fun to watch for a few months and is the type of player teams pay for (sort of) at the trade deadline, especially if the Nats were willing to eat $. (Of course, they'd also lose a 2nd round pick for signing him, but I still say it's a positive expected value on the talent acquisition front, especially for talent that might contribute while Soto is here).
There's also a chance he's done, and the variance in outcomes won't help with Harper's rotation stability / innings problem. Personally, I'm resigned to major suck next year so this wouldn't be killer in my book.
@Matt. Not sure I see the value in signing Thor. 2022 is a lost year for the Nats. They need pitchers who can stay healthy. Thor is not that guy. Sure, he has a high upside, but to what effect? The Nats are not going to be contenders, and even if they somehow miraculously stay close into the summer, it's highly unlikely that they would be buyers at the trade deadline. The only real reason to sign Thor would be to trade him at the deadline, but giving up a high draft pick is not worth the risk.
@PF -- Yeah, my plan would be to flip him. (A few fun months for the fans wouldn't be bad either, though).
Let's say Thor is healthy and pitching well. Then I think you're effectively trading Scherzer again, and he bought approximately Gray this year. Is a 50 or 60% chance of getting another Gray worth a 2nd round pick? I'd say yeah. I figure Gray has a 50 or 60% chance of being a decent back-end starter, and a 25% shot of that is better than you'd expect for 2nd round picks, even relatively high ones. But maybe you're less high on Gray or Thor's chance and then yeah it's not a good move.
Ominous. Very ominous.
The problems here are: If Stras and Corbin are able to pitch, their contracts dictate that they have to pitch. That's two slots. Gray is there to be young talent, so either he's good and deserves the slot on the merits or he's bad and he deserves the experience to learn at the highest level. Ross when healthy is significantly better than the #5 Crew.
My worst-case scenario is even worse than Harper's presumed plan: They don't sign a FA. They go into the season with Strasburg, Corbin, Ross, Gray, and Fedde, with Espina, Rogers, and Adon lined up to fill in until/unless Cavalli is deemed ready to take a spot. The reasoning here is that unless at least 2, preferably 3 of the Stras/Corbin/Ross/Gray are pitching as we hope they can pitch in terms of quality and health, 2022 is going nowhere regardless of whether there's a FA in Slot 5. Moreover, the Nats *want* to know if Adon is going to be good enough to be a starter. They *want* to know if Cavalli is ready to be slotted in. And if a random FA is coming in to give 30+ starts of not bad ball, this isn't happening unless one of the top four is hurt or traded.
That means that, if the Nats do sign a FA, it has to be a good pitcher. It has to be someone that it's a no-brain choice to bounce Fedde out of the rotation in favor of. That's clearly better than Ross. If you're just going to get a guy who pitches 5 innings every fifth day, then using that chance to find out if Adon is really a potential starter or Rogers can continue to outperform peripherals is more useful to the team. Guys like Tyler Anderson, Anthony DeSclafani, and Jon Gray aren't going to help the Nationals win the division in 2022 and they're not going to help the Nationals try to develop players to help them win in 2023-5. Basically, that means Kevin Gausman or Marcus Stroman. I'm not even sure I'd want the Nats to take a run at Robbie Ray or Carlos Rodon, simply because of the variability associated with them (did they really have their breakthrough year, or are they flashes in the pan?).
Outside-the-box idea: Trade Ross before the season starts. He's not under contract for the future, he's never been good enough to be relied on for being more than a #4, and his health has been unreliable for his whole career. Go into the season with Stras-Corbin-FA-Gray-Adon as your starters; if Adon washes out fall back on one of the placeholders until Cavalli's ready to try.
Sounds like 2022 will consist of 5 starters and 8 mop-up men.
An out-of-the-box plan to make a run during the Max Sweepstakes would have been interesting. But his agent is Boras and its looking like they'll be asking for upwards of $40M per year. Ouch.
I'm stumped by the pitching predicament.
I like the idea of going after Greinke. Market estimates are for 1-2 years at 10M or less per year, that I think the Nats can stomach. He's old, but he throws strikes (super low walk rate compared to the rest of the league) and has thrown at least 150 innings every year of his career since 2008 (ignoring 2020). Pretty low risk option in my book. He's not the pitcher he once was, but you don't need lights out, you need innings eating.
Honestly, though, I don't see what the point of signing an "innings-eater" even is. For such a player to be useful, it assumes that Strasburg is back and good, Corbin recovers himself, Gray is solid, etc.--basically, someone to play the same role as Lester was supposed to play in 2021. This gives us someone to pitch decently and let the bullpen be used reasonably.
But if the rest falls apart--Strasburg is hurt, Corbin continues to stink, Gray is meh or bad, etc.--then who cares if innings are eaten? Who cares about sparing the pen--in that situation we probably want to be auditioning as many possible bullpen players anyway to see if any can be good, and ditto for starters. We have guys who can go out and throw five innings, and the difference between somebody throwing those innings with a 5.00 ERA versus 4.25 isn't worth spending $10-$15M on unless it's specifically on a one-year deal with the expectation of flipping them for a Mason Thompson, Riley Adams, or Lane Thomas type at the deadline. If they're going to spend that kind of money, I'd rather they do it on a pitcher who might actually be here to help the team when they get good again. (And frankly, if you're worried that giving a 4-year deal to, say, Stroman is a bad idea because the Nats might not BE good again in those four years, then it's time to just trade Soto *now* when he's at maximum value and completely tear the house down.
I can see the idea of signing 2 FAs, one good and one innings-eater. Then both the unreliable Ross and the #5 guy are ejected from the starting rotation, ready to be brought back in if Strasburg has a recovery setback, Gray blows up and needs to be sent down, or the injury bug hits. But that's a pretty aggressive move and implies an expectation of winning now that I don't think is justified without other FA/trade moves to shore up the pen in a big way and the lineup in a smaller way.
(And I can see them taking a run at a high-end FA starter as well because, as Harper has pointed out, this is the organizational philosophy, building from the top. We deliberately went into 2019 with three starting pitchers with $20M+ contracts (Scherzer, in particular, with a whole lot of + on his) with 3+ years of obligation. The rotation is the one area where Rizzo and the Lerners have been proven to go *very* big, even as they've nickel-and-dimed their way around Harper, Rendon, and Turner in the lineup while never adding top-tier FAs.)
PF - I can only see the Good/Bad pen thing working if you are willing to lose a lot of games watching the "2nd starters" flail. Because what will happen a good deal of the time is they'll come in and be bad. I think it's impossible to fight that managerial urge to replace a struggling guy and Davey would have to over and over (unless all these guys are good)
Matt - I can see the idea about Thor because he could be SO dominant to give you that good return. I think the contract would have to be structured with a lot of incentives though for it to work for the Nats. Make sure they aren't paying too much for nothing. I think another team will take the gamble without that security
Dezo - sparing the pen is necessary because there aren't that many arms worth auditioning. You want the available innings to match the number of guys you think are worth looking at and it's not like they'll find a good arm and store him away. They'll find a good one and if the SP is bad they'll grind his arm into dust. We've seen what a no good pitching season is and it's unwatchable. Keeping fans interested matters. Finally I don't think the message Soto wants to hear is "completely not trying to win this year, but trust us". Thanks for listening to my TED (lerner) Talk
ND - I think the best Max contract is going to be like 3-100 which is like precisely what the Nats don't want to sign up for. Something shorter - sure, something longer - maybe.
CP - Greinke works and would be nicely ironic since he refused a trade to the Nats bc he didn't think they had a good shot at winning.
They’d still lose a draft pick if he declines the QO?
@Harper: Leaving aside Davey's propensity to constantly throw the same guy into game after game until he's exhausted (which, when you get down to it, belongs in the Relief Pitching discussion)...one point I definitely overlooked is, exactly who are these "innings-eaters," anyway? As far as I can tell, only four pitchers in all of MLB pitched over 200 innings, and only Cole, Berrios, and Ray (and, yuk, Bauer) averaged over 6 IP per start (even Max fell short of that). Corbin, Adon, Rogers, and Gray all gave us over 5 IP/start last year.
I think that just reiterates my point: Patrick Corbin, was in essence the very model of an "innings-eater"--good health all year and over 5.2 IP/start. He was also arguably the worst regular starter in all of baseball. That's why I say, "sign an actual good pitcher," not "sign a random veteran whose only skill is health." If you're going to pay money in free agency, why not get actual value for your dollar, not spend $15M on somebody who's going to be a marginal upgrade (if that--Lester, for example, was actually worse than Fedde or Espino or Ross) on Erick Fedde?
Ollie - yes the Mets get a draft pick if Thor declines the QO and signs with another team. (If we accepts it he's just back on the team)
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