On the plus side the Nats hung with a respectable team on the back end of a road trip. They got three "I'll take it" pitching performances and some big time relief outings. They looked like a real baseball team and finish the swing 4-5. That's not a good performance but it's middle of the road for a team that looked like far far less than that to start the year.
On the negative side it's still 4-5. The Nats still are last in the NL East, tied for 2nd to last in the NL (those Reds are going to be hard to catch), and tied for 3rd to last in all of baseball (come on Tigers!). The starts were all imperfect and the relief positives were balanced by a big (and completely expected) negative.
All in all it's what you'd expect from a 70 win team that started slow.
So how about those pitching performances?
Adon - 5 innings, 3 hits, 5 walks, 6 Ks. I really liked this outing because Adon was in big trouble - going Walk, Single, Walk, Double, IBB and facing Rendon, down 3-0, and Davey let him pitch. He got a DP (part skill part luck) and got out of it. This is the type of thing the Nats need to be doing all season long.
Voth/Espino/Arano - no runs. Arano put two on but also K'd two in his inning
Gray - 5 innings, 5 hits, 2 walks, 3Ks. It was fine. Jo-Jo See-Ya was back in effect with 2 homers and that that's going to be his issue going forward, but we know that. Keep the hits and walks down though and it'll play. It'll play as a 4/5 but it'll play. Get those K's up and maybe it even works.
Cishek/Ramirez/Rainey - no runs. Ramirez ate a couple innings which is good and we'll want to see more of that given these guys are all going 5.
Fedde - 5 innings, 2 hits, 5 walks, 4 Ks. Too many walks with not enough Ks More FBs than GBs... We'll check all the pitchers out stat wise around Memorial Day but there isn't anything to start with that looks much better. Sometime they hit it where your guys are.
Rogers - hit hard. We've talked about how he was not a good pitcher last year and to look at his results and think maybe you had something, as some were, would be silly. He's now back around his FIP which is high 5s. Last guy in the pen stuff when you don't have a wild young guy you just want to stick in there for experience.
Finnegan / Voth - no runs.
Rainey... ok look there had been rumblings that maybe Rainey had turned a corner. And he has pitched better than last year, though it would be hard not to. He seems to have a bit more control, while sacrificing some Ks - which is fine that tradeoff works given the improvement in one to the falling in the other. But he's not a lights out closer. He's a decent relief arm and guess what - a decent relief arm works as a modern "face a random 3 guys in the 9th inning" closer. He's better than the guy in 2019/2020 who was ok, but not much. He's not giving up zero homers - he hasn't become a dramatic GB guy. Runs will come. But if you want to say he's the closer. Fine. He's the closer. He's cheap. He's got three years past this. You are getting something from this guy.
6 comments:
What's the difference between a 70-win team that starts slow and a 70-win team that starts fast?
(And what's with this "70-win" business?)
@Harper
Of the five HR Gray has given up, only one came with someone on base, and that was a 2-run HR. Is it luck, or is his pitching approach with runners on base fundamentally different? (If it's luck, he needs to get that WHIP down or the homers are going to hurt more eventually.)
@anon
At the beginning of the season, Harper evaluated the roster changes and calculated that the team should win 70 games in expectation. The "slow start" means that they underperformed their ability on paper for the first bunch of games, mainly in that 8-game losing streak at the end of April. Right now their winning % is .333, a 54-win pace, while a 70-win pace would have them at .432. Going 4-5 is about a .444 rate, or roughly a 72-win pace, so the recent performance lines up more closely with the expectation.
Hey at least the Nats look like a fun losing team (averaging 6+ runs/game on the road trip) than a dreadful losing team (averaging 2.3 runs/game on the homestand before).
Fedde sucks so bad. He's always nibbling because he doesn't trust his stuff. Hard to teach a guy confidence. Adon is not good either but at least he'll go right at Trout and Ohtani with 96 up in the zone.
TL;DR: score runs and challenge hitters! Be fun bad!
I think Gray might be a #3, at least on the nights when he is striking guys out. Fedde is clearly a 4/5, and I don't think we have any other pitchers that would be in the starting rotation of .500 or better team. Corbin might be a useful long relief guy on a good team (hey, he helped the Nats win the World Series), but given his salary and his sturdiness, I guess you've got to let him start games. Unless the Nats go to a Tampa strategy of having relief pitchers start the game.
Anon - Yeah 70 is just kind of where I pegged the Nats preseason (actually 69) A fast start vs a slow start would be the difference between finishing with 66/67 wins and 71/72 wins. Unless for some reason you believe you made a misjudgment on the core of the team. (I haven't seen that). I will keep saying though 69 is dependent on Strasburg being back around Memorial Day and close to normal.
kubla - he also gave up a 3 run HR to Joey Wendle. But the point might have some truth to it. He only gave up 4 non solo shots out of 19 last year... I'd have to look into it more but there might be something there.
ocw5000 - same feeling. this is a bad team but not a team that kills you to watch 2 out of every 3 games. The SP is the key. If the guy is doing ok, the team might win and it's fine. But every 3rd outing they tend to blow it and you should just turn on something else bc the pen isn't lights out enough to hold it where it is and the line-up isn't good enough to catch up.
PF - Gray might be a 3. It's a constant evaluation. I don't think Fedde is a 4/5 or at least a universal 4/5. He's a 4/5 for this team with one of the worst rotations in baseball.
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