Initial thoughts is it's an iffy trade... without Bell. With Bell it's a joke BUT I try to be fair and the Nats landed two former Top 10 prospects in Gore (2020) and Abrams (2021) and a current Top 20ish guy in Hassell. The other guys are an intriguing Top 100 bat in Wood (huge guy, huge pop - very young), and the top ranked International pitcher of last year's signing class in Susana (though a weak pitching class to be honest). It's a lot of high upside talent but little high performance in high leagues outside of Abrams. For me it's lacking both the "oooh this guy feels like a lock to be a very good player", which I thought of Walker and the "these two guys will be major league pitchers" which I thought of Miller and Pepiot, that I wanted in a deal.
There may be more but this feels like a trade made because they needed to make a trade. It feels more evident that the Nats wanted to put the team in best position to deal and that meant an undervalued (if however slightly) deal for Soto or to send him away. It did not mean paying him market value.
I'd expect a sale announcement rather soon.
It's the end of an era in many ways but try to remember - flags do fly forever.
36 comments:
At least they salary dumped Co... wait I'm getting an update here, they actually TOOK Hosmer's contract.
Hosmer has to agree to the trade. Better sends boatloads of cash or he ain't coming. From the penthouse to the outhouse just like that - I'm sure he wants to come here.
..."a sale announcement rather soon."
Do you think the trade is something potential new owners wanted or insisted upon?
P.S. Padres fans' commentary on Hosmer is hilarious.
Hosmer is apparently off to Boston - a smaller dumpster fire than Washington
This is a terrible trade. You HAVE to get a can't miss blue chipper and another 2-3 high upside guys for someone this great & young. You couldn't get Alvarez from the Mets or Walker from the Cards? Maybe one of these guys will be a home run, but it seems like the type of package you give for a 31 year old version of Soto....not the 23 year old version.
I can’t say that I really KNOW prospects. I can see stats and make from them an assessment. But I don’t really have solid knowledge of these prospects. So I have to wait it out and see if this trade is good or not. I agree it feels underwhelming, but I’m not sure what it would have taken for me to really be stunned at that return. As I am a Nats fan, I’ll try and look at the positive side as much as I can. To that end, if you read the scouting analysis, all 5 of are people project as quality starters and I can see their thought process. The Nats believe in House, Cavalli, and Henry. So, for a fun exercise, let’s say all that is true. They basically just filled they’re seeing a 2024/2025 rotation of Cavalli, Gore, Henry, Grey, and Susana. (Remember this is going off the scouting analysis that is available to everyone). They assume an infield of House, Garcia, CJ Abrams, FA 1B, Ruiz. And an outfield of Hassell, Wood, and Robles/Thomas/ FA corner outfielder.
On paper, by scouting report, that’s a pretty good team.
Again, totally underwhelmed by the return. But trying to be positive, for the time being, I’m choosing to believe that this is the 2024/2025 playoff contender Nationals.
Does anyone know the details of Voight's contract? Is this someone to re-flip or could he be a piece?
Certainly there are evaluations that can be made today based on projected value, but the true evaluation of the trade can’t be done until many years later. Remember the Doug Fister trade? It was agreed across the industry that the Nats ripped off the Tigers. Now, looking back, that doesn’t seem to be the case.
The point is: as a fan, the thing that ultimately matters is how good the incoming players end up being.
I was going to project an optimistic future roster, but JDBrew already did that. The only person I would add to the list is Elijah Green
I also feel like Wood ends up a 1B/DH
Oh yeah…forgot about Elijah Green. He’ll probably be an All Star as well.
And while we’re dreaming…Soto’s free agency is only 2 years away. Maybe these guys will be producing by then and with ZERO money on the books really well can offer Soto $550M over 11 years. That’ll give him most money, highest average. They’ll to keep Robles around simply for a familiar face. I’m sure Robles is a fine 4th OF.
On a side note, it makes me so angry that Robles still sucks. I want him to be good SOO BADLY. Maybe even more than I wanted Justin Maxwell to be good.
If this is Rizzo's idea of retooling, I'd like to know his idea of rebuilding.
Unless he lied, of course
Boy, every Nats prospect a future All-Star!
It feels brutal, but it was necessary. And the haul isn't bad. Three months ago, FanGraphics rated the San Diego players that we received: Abrams (1), Hassel (3), Gore (4), Wood (5), and Susana, young as he is, was rated 8th. We won a WS (hurrah), we regrouped, discovered that we had backed the wrong horses: Strasburg and Corbin. And here we are, hoping the player development has improved so we get a couple of stars out of this group.
Somebody needs to say this: assuming continued good health, Juan Soto will have a much better career hitting in a line-up with Machado and Tatis. This gives him the best chance not to be Trout.
I actually believe in Cavalli and Henry as well. And it helps that all of these pieces are performing well at their respective levels. They are all performing either quite well or crushing it. All except Rutledge. I’m not sure what to make of him. Maybe second coming of Tanner Roark.
Agreed on Soto. He’s carried himself with class. I wish him well. He was what Harper should have been. And I like Bryce. I like his passionate, all or nothing, light hearted style of play. But his stardom always felt a bit too manufactured. Soto was a class act with us. He never did anything even questionable. Even while employing evil incarnate: the-agent-who-shall-not-be-named.
@JDBrew--Admire your optimism. But no Nats prospect is crushing it in the minors, particularly if they're hurt.
From Ben Clemens of Fangraphs:
“For the Nationals, I hate to say it, but this deal makes sense. Again, you have to assume a Soto trade was inevitable, but once you do that, turning your farm system from lackluster to brimming with talent is exactly what any team should do when they trade away a premium talent. There’s simply no other way to get this many high-upside players at once. The Nationals already had the major-league look of a rebuilding team; now at least they have a great farm system instead of a bottom-tier one.”
More from Mr. Clemens:
“Here’s the easiest way to think of this: yesterday, the Nationals had the 24th-best farm system in baseball based on our rankings. Today, thanks to this trade, they’ve leapfrogged to eighth. Per Craig Edwards’ research, the Nationals can expect roughly the same amount of organizational value from the prospects they acquired today as they can from their entire system as of yesterday. That doesn’t even count Gore, who has already exhausted prospect eligibility (Abrams should graduate soon, too). Make no mistake: this was a treasure trove of a return, more glitzy prospects than have ever been exchanged in-season. It could get even better than that; Voit won’t be a free agent until after the 2024 season, and while his stock is down after two seasons where he’s been more average than exceptional, the Nationals would find several interested bidders if they decided to flip him for a prospect.”
Again, I go back to: it’s fine to evaluate this trade as of today, but the more meaningful evaluation won’t be able to be done for several years. We’ll see what happens
@Anonymous
-Henry 1.71 ERA
-Wood 1.004 OPS
-Hassell .846 OPS
Those are really good numbers. I’m not a scout. I have never seen these guys play even one pitch. But I’m be pretty darn happy with a OPS of +1.
A redeeming quality of this trade for me is Mackenzie Gore. My in-laws live in Wilmington, NC not too far from where Gore played ball in high school. He’s popular in this area so I am looking forward to taking my father-in-law to a game with Gore starting, whenever he recovers from his elbow injury
David Schoenfeld at ESPN https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/34313534/mlb-trade-grades-juan-soto-headed-padres-won-deadline-biggest-blockbuster-deal
gives the Padres an A+ and the Nats a B+. Its the day of the deal, so it means nothing really. However, it leaves me feeling positive. This could be a trade where both teams won.
Two things struck me watching Rizzo's press conference today, as he nearly poked out the eyes of reporters by shoving his World Series ring in their faces, and boasted about rebuilding for a second ring:
1. @G Cracka X's quote from Craig Edwards
that the Nats acquired roughly the same organizational value today as the ENTIRE Nats organization had yesterday.
2. You know else is a free agent after 2024? Alex Anthopoulos.
I'm a Braves fan in Nats country trying to raise a Nats fan. I am actually blown away by the haul they got for Soto. Frankly not many if any clubs could trade such great young talent currently not contributing.
The Zips projections for 2025 is 6.9 for Gore/Abrams/Hassell which is better than Soto. I used 2025 as in no way would he be a Nat with the carcas surrounding him at the end of 2024 had he remained.
I remain doubtful that Rizzo is the right Guy, his drafts have been dreadful 2014 - 2020. There is not a single young star drafted from that time on the roster yet. The fact that they recently hired more Guys in scouting just shows it took 9 years to acknowledge the problem.
Back to the trade, Rizzo can do them. This is a great haul and I think the Nats can actually be interesting by 2026 when I will have a 7 year old. It will probably take a few more years to overtake Atlanta. They have nearly everyone young locked up through 2028. Hopefully the Nats can take a step forward and start extending players rather than waiting for them to hit full price at free agency. I am really optimistic another run can start now in about 5-7 years.
From Eric Longenhagen:
“The package in its totality moved the Nationals farm system from 24th in our live rankings the moment before the trade to eighth immediately after. Abrams is just a few at-bats from being pulled off the list, but the specific ranking is less important than trying to contextualize just how much talent the Nationals added here. They basically doubled the numerical value of their farm system, which now has as many exciting high-upside prospects under 20 as any organization, in this case led by Wood, top recent international signee Cristhian Vaquero, Brady House, Elijah Greene, Jeremy De La Rosa, and Susana.”
That’s a neat thing to think about. Lots of high upside under-20s - as much as any other org. No guarantees that any of them have significant MLB careers, but the potential is there
I agree this haul doesn’t seem like much. But with Carter Kieboom and Victor Robles absolutely mashing in the middle of the lineup for years to come, even mediocre production will play. Fedde, Dunning, and Corbin are more than adequate stop gaps until Strasburg returns at full force. Not to mention the generational hauls received for Scherzer and Turner. Too soon to buy World Series tickets thru 2025? 2030??
When it became obvious that Soto wasn’t going to sign an extension, the Nats shifted from “retool” to “rebuild.””
It's weird -- it's very clearly not enough for Soto, in the sense that very probably none of these players will ever be half as good as he, but I also can't imagine any team giving more. I mean, you can play scout and say this or that FV60 is the one to bet on, and maybe you're right, but I know that I don't know and am happy to take the collective public wisdom at face value.
So once we decided that we wouldn't / couldn't extend him, this is pretty much the best possible outcome.
But it is really hard to swallow. Even if everything pans out great and we're a wild card team in 3 years, I'll still be kind of sad we made the trade.
I wanted Soto to go into the Hall with a Nats cap on.
My Oceans 11 view of this is that:
- Soto and the team discussed building a winner around him
- Agreed they'd pay him more than anyone else but it would be hard to sign enough veterans to make this not an Angels 2.0 given how barren the farm systems was (is it tampering if they say that in negotiations?)
- Sent him off to re-fill the cupboard
- Team is now one piece away from competing in 2025, free of most of the deferred money contracts and Corbin
- Return of the Juan at $500M for 14 years
One can dream.
By contrast, CBS Sports gives the trade a D:
https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/juan-soto-trade-grades-padres-get-a-for-landing-superstar-low-marks-for-nationals-despite-big-haul/
It’s good to read a range of opinions on the matter. CBS’ take feels more hot-takey than Fangraphs’ more nuanced approach, but I do get the point that in sports, you rarely get back fair value for a superstar at the peak of his powers.
Last thing for now (and I know I’ve been posting a lot): one thing that the Nats were criticized for during their good years was being a ‘stars and scrubs’ team. They had a lot of ‘single points of failure’ where if one or two stars get hurt, the team is sunk.
Perhaps now with a Top 10 farm, they will move more toward depth and be more of a high-floor, low ceiling team in a few years
I, for one, am glad this team let Bryce walk so they could afford to keep Rendo...no...Trea Tur....wait a minute...Soto....
Ah, forget it. This team has been a dumpster fire since the World Series win (and even that was a rather bizarre thing).
At least we still have Strasburg, right guys?
....
Oh...
I think I have to agree with Anonymous at 8:58. I don't share Harper's disappointment at the quality of the prospects; in fact, looking at Fangraphs's take on the players involved, I'm pretty impressed by both the number and quality of them. I mean--the Nationals now have a top-ten farm system, and that's not even counting Gore, who is considered no longer a prospect, and Voit, who is basically "cheaper, worse, more injury-prone Bell" but under control for two more years (I'm *much* happier to get Voit than Hosmer, if nothing else; that last-second switch definitely turned out in the Nats' favor).
And yet, at the same time, well...we no longer have Juan Soto. Your hope is that even one of those prospects turns into something vaguely close to Juan Soto. *No* amount of prospects, no matter their pedigree or identity, can ever truly replace a superstar. This is especially true because, well, the Nationals organization doesn't have a good track record of turning prospects into quality Major League players. One can only hope that new ownership hires an analytically-minded front office that's willing to institute forward-thinking change. I can live with the new Nats are the NL Rays; if they become the NL Royals then fandom will be suffering.
So yeah, I am simultaneously impressed and satisfied with the return Rizzo got in this trade--I don't see how he could have reasonably done better--while still being disappointed at the overall outcome and think that it's unlikely we got back anywhere near the value of Juan Soto (especially since I can't see us signing him as a FA for 2025, though who knows).
@G Cracka X has pulled a lot extensive quotes from they-who-must-be-obeyed Fangraphs, focusing on what a spectacular haul the Nats received for Soto. With Fangraphs' pronouncement that the Nats now have a top 10 farm system, the giddiness is almost palpable.
But Fangraphs posted some important caveats, sprinkling some sour with sweet, that @G Cracka missed (or ignored).
The main one is that the trade does not make he Nats a contender. The team needs consistently to draft, sign and develop sufficient organizational depth and talent (especially pitching) to compete with the big boys. Their persistent failure to do so is what landed them in this mess in the first place.
One more thing: A recurrent theme on Harper's blog is the tendency to overvalue one's prospects. Are we on the verge of overvaluing these new prospects? And will we overvalue them because they're the Nats', or because they're really the Padres'?
Of course we overvalue prospects. It is in the DNA of sports fans.
I approach it differently. Soto was adding no value to a hapless team. There is a Branch Rickey story about when one of his players wanted a raise because he had hit the most homers in the league. Supposedly, Rickey replied: we came in last with or without your homers.
We will derive no team value over the next two years from Soto AND since we will be bad, I would take the field over the Nats as to who will sign him in free agency. SO anything interesting we got back is positive. In fact, 5 propects with good pedigrees--only time will tell whether they are Kieboom (failure), Robles (limited success, maybe still gets back to 2019), or Bell (batting .300).
We did Soto a favor (he will build his career better in a line-up with Machado and Tatis) PLUS if we get deep-pocketed owners and are a better team in 2 years, we have a faint hope of getting Soto back when his contribution will be meaningful. Look forward, not back.
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