Hey - what else are we going to talk about here?
So someone said the comparisons weren't very fair because some of them weren't very good. Joey is raking. Someone with a 94 OPS+ is not. The problem is if you expand out from 29+ there are more questions on how comparable that really is. But again - what the hell.
OPS+ 130 plus, debut year over 25, over 200 PA (Since the war - you know the one).
That's only 8, including Joey
The previously mentioned Ryan Schimpf is closest in age at 28. The guy played half a year hit 20 homers in 2016. That's amazing! Tell your grandkids about it Ryan! Here he is today. Baseball is hard!
At 27 you have Abreu - not applicable because he only didn't come up before because he was in Cuba. Same with 26 year old Yoenis Cespedes.
If you must look at 26 year olds - I guess I did put them in there -
Jeff McNeil - Not a high prospect but hit in the minors until derailed by injury for two years. Still hitting years later AT THE AGE OF 30
Josh Hamilton - Huge Prospect drafted 1-1 that had his career derailed by drugs. When did get in the majors was the star people thought he could be until out of the game at 34 for various reasons
Then two guys, Gus Zernial and Ferris Fain, who debuted in the 40s. Both had solid careers until they were 36 and 34 respectively.
So you can break in, hit surprisingly well, and still be hitting at the ages past 30. The caveat here is that they broke in much younger. For the most part 31 ish was their last very good years with usable after that.
But in my mind Joey's biggest problem is the 200+ PA we've set. That's pretty low about a third of a season. He hit better in August than September (though September is still good) What's the chance another two months even that start out?
Will this end the Joey train? Probably not. Boz came back just to get a ride on it. We'll all come into next year hoping he does well and that's about all we can do. Chances are probably best he has a middling near average year maybe two, then peters out. Maybe the Nats get lucky and he hits well for another before slowly fading. Maybe they don't and he's just not good next year. Yes, maybe he IS that one 30 year old that becomes the "Well Joey Meneses did it" standard bearer and he hits for the next 6 years. But no it doesn't HAVE to happen someday. This isn't an infinite number of monkey on an infinite number of typewriters.
Nats take on Philly and if you like the Brewers more than Philly - well the Nats can help take them down and get Milwaukee in. Mets take on Braves. All this worked in crazy ways around the rain coming in from the Hurricane. Now that's a wild finish.
4 comments:
Look guys, Harper is right. Schimpf is the most likely outcome (ie <1 WAR over the rest of his career). And Cuban defectors and prodigal top prospects don't belong in the conversation at all. It's not impossible. but two more years as a league average starter would be a basically unprecedented path.
Which is actually why I think age isn't really the issue. Take Jake Alu. He's 25, and just had a pretty solid year in the high minors. 325 PAs of 125 wRC+ at AA and then 240 PAs of 140 wRC+ at AAA. He's a fringe prospect, he was drafted in the 24th round and has overachieved to get this far.
But let's say he ends up starting at 3B next year out of spring training. Kieboom and Vargas and whoever else needs to be hurt is hurt. And let's say his first 50 games are just as good as Joey's (after adjusting for defensive position).
Would we believe in that hypothetical Alu any more than we do Meneses just because he's younger? I don't think so. A 19 year old, or even a 23 year old, gets some benefit of the doubt around physical projection and learning new skills, but once you're old for a prospect (24?), you get one shot. And almost no one comes out of nowhere to succeed.
I hope Meneses proves us wrong, and it's not impossible, but the odds are are pretty steep.
^^ This is true. And maybe you were alluding to this, but part of these reason why we don’t see many cases like Joey is because 30 year old rookies simply don’t get the chance. For a front office, it all comes down to pedigree. That’s why someone like Daniel Bard is given chance after chance after chance to succeed (and I’m thrilled he’s returned to form and salvaged his career). First round picks, regardless of how poorly they perform, will almost certainly make and MLB roster unless health gets in the way. Why? Well, for one, the team that drafted them likely put a high investment in that player when they drafted him, or a team that acquired him via a trade gave up a lot of resources to get him. Also, I believe its simply because scouts and front office guys don’t want to admit they were wrong when evaluating a player. If This is the reason why a guy like Blake Swihart got so many chances and a Jake Alu will likely never get one. If Alu comes up and plays well, it’s a great story for the fans, and reminds the FO that they didn’t get it right. If a top prospect fails, the fans are mad and the FO shrugs and says “well he’s supposed to better than this.”
To me, it comes down to hubris. Which is sad.
OlePBN...the shorthand for your observation is called the Carter Kieboom effect. Or maybe it's the Victor Robles. I forget...
Here's the part about this debate that strikes me as nonsense.
As opposed to guys like Kieboom or Robles, Meneses has never been in the majors and not hit well.
You can look at a guy like Vargas, who has a good glove and is hitting decently, and say "well, he's been up 5 times before and not hit." That's true.
But Meneses was blocked before, played overseas, and other than his first 6 days, he hasn't had an AVG under 300. Will it last? Who knows. But the only things you can say for sure are 1) he's hit while he's here (yes, with a high babip), and 2) he's very likely not to be any more capable each year going forward, because he's older than 27.
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