I don't get to see a list of names but little birdies tweeting tell me Baseball Prospectus has put out their list and it has
3 - James Wood
66 - Robert Hassell
68 - Elijah Green
71 - Cade Cavalli
Given last post rankings, it's almost as if they have an idea of how well an organization is overall and then hand out rankings based on that. Make Wood a future star and you got to kick everyone else down a notch. But that would undermine the "deep serious science" behind these things. And at some point, despite them saying it doesn't, these things effect each other. Maybe not in the same year but there's probably some of that.
Nothing in particular changes from last time other than Baseball Pro is trying to tell you Wood is a can't miss guy (Jo Adell would like a word with your rankings) and they feel the other guys are drifting out of "sure major leaguer" into more "cup of coffee and breakfast" territory.
But really no single prospect list should be taken as gospel. Look at them all and get a feel for where your guy is and what they have to do (within reasonable expectation) this year to meet, exceed or fail according to these expectations set up.
Wood
Meet - Start in High A, hit incredibly well, move to AA and not struggle. ETA late 2024 if all goes right.
Exceed- At some point this year hit extremely well in AA too setting up a clear start of 2024 debut with ROY expectations.
Fail - At some point getting to AA and struggling.
Wood has the patience and likely the power, so it comes down mainly to if the K-rate can avoid jumping up and causing a problem.
Hassell
Meet - Make it to AAA, hitting for same overall power as last year and holding his own
Exceed - Make it to AAA hitting for power more like he did in San Diego's minors. He'd likely be hitting well enough to for the Nats to consider if they need to call him up this year.
Fail - Continue to struggle in AA with power issues as he did in Nats minors
Had the same bump in K-rate Wood did but with a bit more history seems unlikely to stick. However the drop in power with the Nats is concerning and another year might cause him to be considered more of a slap hitter in the majors.
Green
Meet - Hit well in single A
Exceed - Hit great in single A
Fail - Hit poorly in single A
It's pretty simple given what I said yesterday. They don't want to miss Green taking it to the next level so they put him in. But it's at a spot where solid work in low minors is enough to meet expectations given his age.
Cavalli
Meet - Spend most of the season in the majors, with a reasonable ERA that would keep him in the rotation next season. (say 5.50 or below)
Exceed - Spend basically all year in the majors and pitch at least ok (ERA closer to 4.00)
Fail - Spend most of the season in AAA failing in the majors to a point where he can't be kept there
Cavalli is at an age where it's almost put up or shut up time. He'll get his major league shot if he's even ok in AAA and they'll want to see him set himself up to be a safe rotation guy. There's plenty of room for improvement (fewer hits, more Ks, less BBs) but this last step is the hardest.
Again this is meeting the expectations set up by the rankings. But the rankings are just guesses. These guys will find their level.
One of the hard things about this is things can break "fairly" in a number of ways with wildly different results. Let's say one exceeds expectations, two meet, and one fail. If it's Exceed - Green, Meet - Hassell and Cavalli, Fail - Wood, the Nats aren't in great shape. Wood and Hassell both look like major leaguers but maybe not impact guys and with no specific rush to be called up. They get to see Green bump up to a Wood like level in next years rankings but as seen by Wood that only means so much. Let's say it's Exceed - Wood, Meet - Green, Cavalli, Fail - Hassell. The Nats quite possibly have a future star on their hands in Wood, and Green is gaining momentum as at least a solid major leaguer, which makes Hassell becoming more of a 4th OF guy far more palatable. The 2025-6 major league OF is one year of expectations met from being set.
7 comments:
I can imagine Hassell having a chip on his shoulder after how quickly some of the rankings seem to have given up on him. I hope that is a productive thing.
Rankings are great commentaries, but thats all they are. Even Strasburg and Harper haven't quite become the generational players the cover articles and scouts made them out to be. Both are true stars, yes, but doubtful for the Hall of Fame.
Max Scherzer IS a generational talent --- and he was a much lower ranking. Soto came from out of nowhere. How many unranked talents become stars?
You have to play the games.
I mean, Stras is only doubtful for the HOF because of his injuries and Harper is like 80%+ to make it at this point. Bryce just finished his age 29 season and, through that age, he's ranked 59th all time in WAR (FG), 19th in HR, etc. He has 2 MVPs. With anything like a normal decline, even if it started tomorrow, he's in.
Also both Max and Soto rose through the minors super quickly, with less than two full seasons before appearing in the majors. That's obviously going to make it a lot harder to top those prospect lists, and even still they both got up into the 30ish range.
I guess I'm just confused by what you mean. To me, all four of those players are examples of the prospect lists accurately identifying top level talent. I agree that the lists are imperfect, and there is a variance in both directions, but those seem like strange examples to cite. If those are the examples of getting it wrong -- #1 prospects "only" generating ~20 WAR under their rookie deals, and #30 prospects on a path to the HOF -- then those lists are incredibly valuable indicators.
NattyDread/Anon - I think Bryce is still better than even money to be a HoFer. He's got a ROY, two MVPs, he's about to go over 300 homers at 30. A typical last 10 years puts him very close to 500 homers and 2500 hits. Only injuries are going to disrail him.
Stras being doubtful because of his injuries is probable - but hard to confirm because he's been injured SO much. Having one complete season after 25 leaves a lot of conjecture.
I agree with ANON, you do have Soto's out of nowhere but we're talking guys 18/19/20. Where they are judging on very little and are almost racing the team's bringing them up. Those happen and aren't quite what I would call mis-ranked guys.
Fair enough on the Stras counterfactual being dicey. My point was just that his rate stats are extremely elite. Min of 1000 IP, he's 7th all time in K/9, 11th all time in K/BB. 71st in ERA-, 13th in FIP-. The hall is kind of broken for contemporary starting pitchers, and with the frequent injuries he was always less than 50/50 to compile enough innings and wins (and CY votes) to actually to make it in -- but I don't think "doubtful" was really an accurate descriptor until the TOS.
Where we are now, of course, with his late prime zeroed out and his decline years looking pretty speculative, he's 0.1% to make it or whatever. But when he was holding that WS MVP trophy, he had to have at least a 1 in 10 shot, even with all the missed time. His postseason stats are incredible, and that kind of thing helps a borderline case, if he could get to being a borderline case.
And Hall-bound or not, my larger point is that, if you wouldn't have taken this outcome on the day he was drafted or on the day he topped the prospect charts, you're nuts. He won us a world series. Maybe after his debut and before his TJ, there was a window here where only one title and missing the Hall would qualify as a disappointment, but even that is likely a fan's bias and not a fair projection given what was known at the time.
Curious what makes certain farm systems so good consistently. Dodgers, Cardinals, etc - is it just paying a ton for the right coaching?
We seem not to miss on top 10 picks (only one I see is Crow), mostly hit on top 20, and then just come up empty from there. Which makes it seems like players succeed despite of our org. development.
Looking at these, they have GOT to hope that pitcher from Tennessee falls to them in the draft this year.
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