The Nats are looking to go into the flood again with a young player, except this time it's James Wood instead of Juan Soto. James Wood is being pushed as much as the Nats can push someone who won't start in the majors. He played a little bit in yesterday's game against the Yankees and was basically all the official Nats tweets for the day. Why are they doing this?
Well first - James Wood becoming a superstar would help sell the trade of Juan Soto. Juan had an off-year last year and was still somewhere in the 7-14 best range for all major league hitters. Think about that. He'll be 24 all season and the only player younger than him in the Top 15 is Julio Rodriguez. Juan Soto is really that good. Trading him was really that bad. His off time in San Diego helped hide that a little but if, or more likely when, he goes off it'll set off another round of recriminations at the Nats management. Unless they have a new Juan Soto. Gore, Adams, and Hassell are all good prospects but the lights have dimmed on them enough that if they are very good this year or a superstar next year it would be a surprise. James Wood though, carries the variability of youth. He could struggle a bit in AA this year or he could be a surprise ROY candidate. You don't know. If he is the latter then trading Soto is a it more palatable, a bit of an easier sell. Hell they might even force Wood to play CF (a position I think he best "hangs" at than where he should end up*) to show up the difference between him and likely sooner than later DH Soto.
Also Wood presents the best excitement chance for this team in a season with little to sell. Like I said Gore, Abrams, and Hassell later in the year are all probably multiple year major leaguers. But they are also probably just ok guys. Luis Garcia might get better but he doesn't look like a star. Neither does Ruiz** or Gray. Meneses? Maybe but it's also quiet possible he bombs right off the team. No Wood is the best bet for a superstar turn and one that when it happens will stick. The sooner it happens, IF it does, the sooner the Nats can sell it.
But mostly they want to push him because they need him to be the next Soto. They need a cheap superstar to build around. They need a cheap superstar to market the team for a sale. Can he be the next Soto? It's WAY off to say yes or no. All we can do is compare where they are at the same age.
Wood is about 20 1/2 when the season starts turning 21 a few weeks before this season ends. He rocked rookie ball at 18+ (.372 / .465 / .535) and easily handled regular A at 19+ (.324 / .429 / .560). He should be in High A to start the year but if he were in AA it would surprise no one.
Soto at 20 1/2 was a month or so into his 2019 season and is the same age all season long (birthday late October). He rocked rookie ball at 17 (.361 / .410 / .550), regular A at 18 (.361 / .427 / .523), and was doing so well in a quick rise through regular, high and double A at 19 (.362 / .462 / .757!!) that the Nats could not keep him down. He played most of his age 19 season in the majors hitting .292 / .406 / .517 barely losing out in ROY to Acuna***. At 20 1/2 he was starting to turn around from a "slow for him" start and show he was really the star he looked like in 2018 by having an incredible if a tiny bit injured May (.380 / .451 / .676)
The takeaway should be clear. Wood is not Soto. Where as Wood is hoping to do well in AA to suggest a promotion to the majors ASAP, Soto was already a star at the top level helping his team win a series.
But Wood doesn't have to be Soto. Soto very likely is first-ballot HoF material. Wood just has to be a regular old star. And for that he still has a chance and the Nats have a chance to look ok to their fans. At least a little bit. Maybe. Wouldn't hurt to get some pitching.
*I know some of you will want to question me but remember when I said years ago "Soto stinks in the field" and you guys were all "No he just needs experience"." Oh he's getting better". "He's so athletic - he'll get it." And then I was proven right and you guys wrong? Good times.
Remember those good times.
** I still think Ruiz has quiet star potential where 7 years from now you realize he was like one of the best 5 catchers in like 4 of those seasons and Top 10 the rest and you didn't quite appreciate that. He needs to develop a tick more offensively though.
***Who did deserve it. It might end up being the best season of his career. He's hurt a bunch and he wavers a little. But combining offense and defense he was better than Soto.
3 comments:
First, they don’t have to sell the Soto trade to me. They were staring at two+ seasons of terrible results followed by Soto leaving for a comp pick and more years of terrible results thanks to a slowly rebuilding farm system. I would argue that the trade actually gives the Nats a better chance of signing Soto when he’s a free agent because they will be in a better position to compete in 2025 than they would be able to offer had they hung on to him. Not much chance, sure. But either way they have the chance to compete sooner on this path.
Second, the reason that the Nats rushed Soto in 2018 was mostly because seven of their top nine OF were injured AND Soto was raking. Without that he gets a bit longer in the minors and a possible September call up.
Third, I think that your take that the Nats are rushing Wood as their last/best hope at justifying the Soto trade is more projection than anything else. Wood didn’t even get an NRI invite to ST. He was an add on to the Yankee game because it’s an early ST game and possibly the longest bus ride (to Tampa). It’s a scrubeenie special. Not that Wood is a scrub, it’s just not a priority game for the team.
I don't think they ARE rushing Wood, but I think they MIGHT rush Wood. There was a lot of push and talk about him for like you say a scrubeenie special
I do agree they give Soto more time but that still means he's up at 19 and probably crushing for 40 games instead of 110.
They are selling "hope for a brighter future." It's not crazy, given that we will be seeing Ruiz, Garcia, Abrams, Cavalli, Gray, Gore and other younget players with potential to be career major leaguers or better and multiple years of control. Whether they pan out or not, hope is legitimate.
Unless the Nats are grossly different from other organizations--the people doing the tweeting are PR staff. I doubt Rizzo and Martinez are paying any attention. So, yes, they might rush Wood, but the tweets bear no relationship to the process and decisonmakers who would need to buy in to make it happen.
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