The worse, and younger, of the general two pieces we look at (yes, defense and baserunning still matter, calm down) the Nats offense has been struggling to score runs. As we've noted the reasons are clear. The Nats do not hit for any power ranking dead last in homers and SLG (in the NL) while being 6th in batting average. They "compliment" this by not walking all that much (10th in walks). Basically the only thing they do favorably is put the ball in play (they don't strikeout) but is that really that good if it's just squibbling ground balls.
Anyway an offense is the sum of its parts so it's time to look at those and see what we can glean early on.
The Positives
Candelario (.284 / .310 / .463) : Jeimer was a guy trying to answer the question of if he was done. After a couple of productive years in Detroit he fell off a cliff a little bit last season. He has bounced back in 2023 though without the aid of his moderately decent eye. In fact he might be the most aggressive hitter on the team right now. If he gets that eye back he could be a very good hitter, if he doesn't and the hits go away he could drift back to below average. Fancy stats have him lifting everything and hitting the ball moderately hard which is a good combination. He's basically THE power threat for the team so far. His BABIP is reasonable so he could hit like this the whole season and maintain this level. Though you'd rather see him round fully into a better hitter that he has shown he can be.
Thomas (.323 / .368 / .387) : Like Jemier, Lance Lane wanted to prove something though for him it was proving last year was real. The results are mixed. Sure he's hitting well but the power that gave him 17 homers last year is gone. Instead he's surviving on singles. Fancy stats suggest this won't last (BABIP of .426) His line drive percentage is ok, but his hits aren't very hard and he doesn't walk. The average likely won't hold here so Lance Lane needs to start getting more balls up and/or out.
Robles (.306 / .393 / .347) : The last guy with something to prove Victor needs to show the world that he still holds some of the promise of a top prospect. It's a decent start with the most exciting thing being that walk rate. His K-rate is down a lot too. He's a different hitter. If Davey could let him run a little more that would be great given how well he's getting on base. Also because he's not getting to second or third by hitting his way there, also showing next to now power like Thomas. He's not hitting the ball softly like Lance, but he is hitting all the balls on the ground. Given his speed maybe he keeps this up but I'd expect a drop in average. However if he can field and run and hit league average? That's ok.
The Middle Ground
Ruiz (.245 / .322 / .358) Ruiz flashed a moment of power to start the year but settled down into his usual pattern of middling average with no real patience or power, making him a below average bat but nothing that kills the team. As a catcher you take it. Still it would be nice If he could get better at SOMETHING at the plate just to get to average. This may just be who he is though.
Garcia (.256 / .286 / .436) A touch younger than Ruiz and the 2nd youngest bat Garcia is showing some very minor growth in power and patience. Very minor. He hits the ball pretty well and is incredibly hard to K, but he hits it mostly on the ground and isn't super fast. Fancy stats suggest he will see his average go up (BABIP .229) and given he's near average now he'll probably pop over average. Which is good. The Nats would really kill though for him to make a real next step though and be a budding star. He's not there as of now.
The Problems
CJ Abrams (.216 / .310 / .333) nothing is terrible, everything is bad. He walks at a middling rate and he strikes out some. He has limited power which is fine, but he's lifting balls in the air. Given he's hitting the ball kind of hard this is even more troubling as it's not like the power is coming once he hits it better. He is hitting it ok, the power just isn't there. Fancy stats don't suggest any big changes so Abrams needs to become a different hitter and use his speed better. He needs to hit more balls on the ground and until then he'll be a liability at the plate.
Alex Call (.208 / .322 / .292) first things first - great eye. He's really helping the Nats walk rate. He has 9 in 59 PAs 3 ahead of any other Nat. As for the rest he's hitting the ball weakly and no line drives. You would expect the BABIP to be low given that and it is but he is getting a little unlucky though (.225) If he keeps playing the average should bump up a little but it's hard to see him hit like this and even be average at the plate. Corey Dickerson come back? Are we actually asking for that?
Joey Meneses (.238 / .284 / .302) The good news is Joey is hitting the ball a lot like last year. The problem is this year is probably more in line with what that means than last year. He is hitting the ball a bit softer and a bit more on the ground but just a tiny bit and not enough to explain the drop we've seen. It's probably due to an increase in junk that he hits hard but can't quite square up enough to turn into homers. For sure 0 homers won't last, but the 25% rate of last year was a fluke as well. For now maybe we should hope for a split in the difference, a guy who can hit .265-.270 with 20 homers? Last year's Lance Lane Thomas? That'd be a disappointment but still ok for essentially a freebee fill-in.
Dom Smith (.232 / .317 / .232) Where's everyone hating on my choice to not click now? There was always a chance of this as it's not like Smith hasn't had his shots and his positive time was about half the length of his negative time that bookended it. Anyway he's NOT having an issue with Ks. He just doesn't square up the ball well and lacks the power to compensate for that. The 0 homers for him, like for Joey, is a bit of a fluke but given his recent history there's no reason to split the difference and expect a usable player. Instead something like a .245 hitter with under 10 homers. As a lightning fast CF or a D first catcher that might pass, as a mediocre fielding 1B you can find better.
This might seem like kind of even breaks but the positives aren't very high as the team was expected to hit pretty poorly. Basically it is a bad offense that is doing a little worse than you expected. That's trouble. I'd expect a few more homers as guys like Meneses and Smith catch some breaks and Dickerson replaces Call, but Robles will likely drop down and Thomas is on thin ice. On balance the offense isn't getting much better.
8 comments:
Lane Thomas. Maybe Lance is his twin brother.
And how about Stone Garrett. He could take Alex Call's spot in the outfield.
Come on, Harper. It's "Lane" Thomas. Next think we know, you'll be calling Abrams "JJ" or something.
PF - Garrett has started great but it's less than a week of ABs so we gotta hold off though if he gets up to 40 ABs hitting like .500 we'll have to talk about that.
Both - yes LANE. ACC Basketball on the brain.
I think this is all mostly fair, but would reframe it through how the over/under performance this season can impact the next window of contention.
The only position players that look to be valuable contributors during our next window are Ruiz, Abrams and Garcia. Abrams is young, so there's still reason to be hopeful, but he's not good enough yet. Ruiz and Garcia seem to be good enough, but kind of just barely. Those three taking a step forward is the most important thing we can see from the offense this season.
Thomas has the youth and team control but, even when he's getting lucky, his bat is league average and he doesn't create enough defensive value where that plays for a contender. He'd be a good OF4, but I don't see him as a starter for a playoff team.
For the rest of them, the question is really whether a contender would trade us a prospect either this July or next. Candelario looks like maybe, but 3B is a great around the league right now -- Candelario's 0.4 FG WAR ranks 15th among qualified 3Bs. And that's with Bregman's and Machado's slow starts below him. Even if he keeps it up, I'm not seeing a contender who'd consider him an upgrade unless someone gets injured.
And as much as I'm enjoying Robles's new approach and hope that he keeps it up, he's had 3 years of terrible hitting. A few months of success isn't going to make him a trade target. Maybe next year.
Meneses's luck will turn around, but the real problem is "expectation Meneses" with his 115 wRC+ as a 1B/DH isn't really good enough to contribute to a playoff team -- either this year, or for the Nats down the line. We really needed to get lucky here and have his true talent be around a 130 wRC+ and that always slim chance is only getting slimmer.
Bottom line, the offense is bad though maybe not quite as bad as feared, but the upside surprises are unfortunately neither our longterm core nor likely to be valuable trade chips. I like this style of baseball, so I'm actually getting a kick out of the season so far, but it hasn't done much for my 2026 WS hopes.
Anon @ 9:16 - I think that the Nats weren't necessarily looking at trade potential for anyone with one exception. One year contracts like for Candelario don't bring back much and they know what they have in hand with Thomas and Robles. Maybe a bashing Meneses would have been considered but he isn't arb eligible for years because he just got to the majors so if they were really trying to be good in 2026 say you'd actually possibly keep him. Toss up because of the age.
The one guy that IS trade bait is Trevor Williams. Everyone always needs pitching. He has a very affordable second year. The whole point of this contract was proving he could be a starter again in the back half of his career. That's the one I'd be watching to bring back something more than a low A bad value lottery ticket.
It's more important for the Nats to have good pitching this year than good hitting. We have a number of what seem to be good hitters in the minors. By 2025, many of them will be on the squad and producing runs on the cheap. We don't have much in the way of good pitching in the minors, and will have to buy pitchers--expensively. So I'd rather see a productive Grey & Gore this year than a productive Dickerson.
@anon 7:57
With the exception of Strasburg and ZNN, getting expensive pitchers to fill out, or even lead, the rotation has always been the MO for the Nats. Corbin, Max, and Sanchez were all either FA signings or trades. All previous rotations since they were decent had at least one main guy that came from outside (plus plenty of 3-4-5 pitchers like Jackson, Haren, Roark, Ross). If they can get one rotation guy out of the current group, they can fill in the rest.
@kubla,
yes that's been the MO, but I see that as a bug, not a feature. Nats really need to sort out how to develop some arms.
And not to quibble, but Roark came out of the Nats org. Spent a few years with the Rangers org, but was part of the Guzman trade and spent 3 years in the Nats minors
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