The Nats probably aren't a playoff team but it seems clear that they are better than we thought (for currently some clearly insane reasons - we'll come back to that) and the NL is 5 teams deep but take 6 into the playoffs. So go ahead and dream for now, especially after beating the Orioles. Thanks for that by the way. Keep doing that. Some how beat them after this series too.
CJ Abrams being a star is surprising but an optimist might have believed in it. He is young, looked good to end last year, and was a top prospect.
Luis Garcia Jr being a star is surprising and no one would have believed in it. He IS young, but spent last year getting dragged to the minors, and was never that highly thought of. Is it real? I don't know. His BABIP of .390 is unsustainable and he isn't hitting the ball any better but he IS hitting the ball harder than ever. So some of this is real and the highest HR rate of his career is probably real too.
Jesse Winker having a great bounce back is surprising but that optimist from before could have convinced himself of it. Winker had good years in Cincy and in 2021 put up a .305 / .394 / .555 line with 24 homers in only 110 games. If it was about injury and not age or skill then maybe he could do something like that again.
Nick Senzel having a great bounce back is surprising and again no one would have responsibly thought it possible. Is it real? I don't know. In 5 years at Cincy he never put up a year close to having positive results at the plate. Yes, it's probably small sample size and the real Nick is probably more the guy that has struck out 10 times in his last 23 ABs because he's just swinging for the fences now. But he is accomplishing his goal of pulling the ball harder and in the air so maybe he can be the Gallo that Gallo isn't?
MacKenzie Gore rounding into a #2 type is not really surprising, but a nice development. He's keeping the ball down avoiding hard hit balls in the air, that's fewer homers. But he's also making sure it's in the strike zone keeping his K-rate up and BB-rate down. Hits are coming but let them. Teams can only single and double their way to so many runs in a game where you get out 70% of the time.
Trevor Williams becoming an ace is shocking. Is it real? I want to say I don't know but everything is screaming NO. Ok he is getting a bunch more ground balls, but he did that in the past and the results weren't like this. Batters aren't hitting him softer, in fact the opposite compared to last year. This is all predicated on a weirdly low BABIP and an insane no homer rate for someone letting guys hit pretty normally in terms of flyballs and how hard they hit it. But baseball is weird sometimes I guess.
I don't know
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What’s going to be interesting is that the hope all along was that the Nats would get better in the second half of the year when Wood, Cavalli, etc. get called up. So if they are still in the wildcard race come July, do they become buyers? Or stick to the plan and sell off any decent vet on a short contract for more prospects?
No way the Nationals become buyers. Their current pace is not sustainable. Trevor Williams will revert to the mean. If Winker and/or Senzel are good, they will be traded. The Nats are not going to sign them to multi-year contracts. Mitchell Parker can't maintain his current pace. Likewise with Luis Garcia. The Nats are still in the re-building mode, and they are going to have to spend some serious money in the off-season to add, at a minimum, pitching.
@Harper - It's crazy, right? And you didn't even include the surprises of Young and Parker both being among the top ten most productive rookies. Some of it is probably real and some of it is probably variance, but I'm going to enjoy it as long as it lasts. TW is for sure the most likely to collapse, but he's also among the most irrelevant to our longterm plans, so I'm finding it pretty fun and stressless.
Shock-wise, for me, it's: Gore < Abrams < Winker < LG < JY << Senzel < Parker <<< Williams. And sustainable-wise, my guess is Gore and Abrams likely will, JY, Winker, LG and Parker might, Senzel probably won't, and Williams just simply can't. But who knows? Baseball, amirite?
And regardless of where and when these performances begin to falter, the whole package means that this season is almost certainly lining up to be a success in terms of setting up a long term run of contention beginning next year. That, plus a snowball's chance of playing meaningful games in September plus a very watchable brand of baseball, is making this into a really enjoyable season.
@PotomacFan --
It's important to realize that neither Parker nor Garcia need to maintain their current place in order to be 3+ WAR borderline stars. And you should know that FG now projects LG's median outcome for the season to be 3.1 WAR, so you're more cynical than an actual soulless automaton, let alone our illustrious host.
I do agree that we aren't likely to be buyers, but if we're within a few games of the WC in July, we aren't going to be selling much either. And we shouldn't be. Maybe we hope Wood can slide right in and outproduce Winker, or even less likely House can with Senzel, which would make trading something of a freeroll, but that kind of thing is risky, and I doubt it's Rizzo's style. Beyond that there's no way we're selling this version of Williams or Finnegan or Harvey if we're on the fringes of contention. I mean, it's always package dependent, but the asking price would be so high that the trade wouldn't happen.
PF....the article and Donald's comment beg for the answer you have given: early success is fun, but it doesn't change the plan. I agree with that, but it feels like you've made it into a negative. It isn't.
I was at the game last night. They have become a fun team to watch with youngsters learning and growing alongside veterans (27-30 year olds!) who are doing better than expected. Two of the National's three runs were manufactured: single, steal, single produced runs. Winning cultures--the type of togetherness and swagger at the heart of all baseball dynasties---have to start somewhere and I saw a glimpse last night. I felt like our time is just a little closer....even if it isn't this year.
In terms of potential for winning days ahead, have to give kudos to the Nats for giving key roles to two upbeat people: Parra and Doolittle. A great stealing team starts with a great first base coach. That was apparent last night. Doo really was the most thoughtful of the many pitchers who passed through here over the last dozen years. The pitching--starting and relief--has vastly exceeded expectations this year. Wonder how much of that is Doolittle.
I think Rizzo is more likely to stick with his plan and sell off Senzel and maybe Winker. Not sure anyone would take Gallo. But the presumption is that the Nats will be buyers next season. If someone he’s had his eye on is available in July, why not buy early, if they’re extendable? I think the Nats would have to be solidly in the wildcard race for that to happen, which might be a long shot given their schedule, but it would certainly be interesting.
I don't see how holding onto a few veterans with expiring contracts contributes to the next competitive phase. Literally or even figuratively. Losing a wild card game, maybe in the best case, is not helpful. Getting even a controllable middle inning RP does contribute.
Also, the vibe was good last night because of the 10k losing-side Orioles fans. That's not normal this year.
Senzel, I don’t know. He is sort of forming up into a DH profile. I probably wouldn’t completely discount him as a long term(ish) piece. It’s not like they necessarily have others that look to fit that mold, and they will need to focus on pitching with their FA money. Of course he would have to keep slugging.
For me, the key takeaway is this season is actually fun to watch. That’s a great change of pace. They will go through slumps but I am enjoying it greatly so far.
Will their unexpected success continue? Beats me. But one of my favorite parts of the Nats' current run is how much it seems to annoy the grumblers and naysayers. If the Nats finish .500 on the season will the G&N ever forgive them?
It's also important context how good Wood and Hassell have looked this season. Crews has been OK too, and showing improvement. When you include JY, even though there's a bust for each of them, it's looks pretty likely that the Nats will have four 2+ WAR/600 outfielders under control through at least 2029. They are all CF-capable and offer different offensive profiles, but all project to be at least average-ish.
Given that, you have to look at our OF prospect depth as a little superfluous. In our top 20 prospects, you have Vaquero, Lile, Green, Hurtado, and Pinckney. Only Hurtadao could be protected from the R5 draft and then optioned until the first of the OFers at the top of the system (Young) hits free agency.
Maybe some of those guys don't really have much trade value right now (Green), but some of them certainly do. Rizzo is under no time pressure to trade them this season, or next, or even the year after, but those guys are all likely to be traded (or be busts that never find a suitor), so when Rizzo sees a good offer, he should take it.
(Though I'll explicitly say that a rental for this year cannot be, by definition, a good offer.)
One game doesn't define the next 15 so lets not jump up and down.
Nevertheless, unexpected improvements in half a dozen players (Williams, Young, Parker, Garcia among others) makes a huge difference before the minor league prospects are called up.
Davey is in the running for manager of the year because his bullpen and roster management has been excellent. The close wins have come out of key strategic choices.
This is a fun team to watch!
@Harper - When you leave us with "I don't know," then I'm sure even a soulless automaton can admit that some good coaching, positive team chemistry, and players being receptive to changing bad habits might have something to do with team success?
That's what it looks like to me. Any boy is it a pleasure to watch.
@Ole PBN - It's certainly complicating the theory that Martinez is a below average manager!
@ Ole PBN - This might actually be as close as Harper comes to agreeing with Boswell.
I love the begrudging positivity of this.
@Steven Grossman Great point about Parra and Doolittle. The coaching this season all-around is terrific so far.
Based on what we've seen so far, the Nats will be in the playoffs next year.
It also looks like they'll get nice prospect hauls for Winker and Williams at the trading deadline, and maybe for Robles, too, if they let him play. Somewhere in the back of Davey's mind, bolstering Williams' trade value may be a consideration in his 80 pitch ceiling -- not to mention his faith in the very good bullpen.
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