The Nats did not get better after the firings. The 1-5 run isn't anything off than expected, facing two good teams away from home 2-4 is the baseline with 1-5 and 3-3 happening almost as easy. This is not a good team, and it's still being run by Davey's guys so don't expect any miracles.
The big thing that happened was the draft. I don't usually care much about the draft, but in the past the Nats having the #1 pick with generational talents has made me take a closer look at it. That was a long time ago. The Nats had the #1 pick again this year but with no clear Strasburg or Harper it was a big question mark on who to take. Guys ranked by one group as #1 might be #7 elsewhere.
The Nats went with Eli Willitis, son of a former major leaguer. He's a guy with no holes in his make-up and seems destined to make the majors, with the general thinking is a good bet to be a very solid top of the line-up type player. If things don't pan out then he might be a super-sub type, where as if he surprises he could be a star. It's a "safe"* pick in a draft like this that featured no wow player. With the Nats eschewing from pitching it seemed like the other choice could have been Ethan Holliday (another major league scion) who had more top-end potential but also potential holes like a lack of projectible defensive skills and a tendency to swing and miss.
Holliday seems like a Rizzo pick to me. Rizzo liked to take big swings in the draft, be it with raw talent (Brady House, Elijah Green), or injury concerns (Rendon, Giolito, Fedde) or what have you. I never felt like this was a terrible idea. You only need to hit once every 5+ years to really impact your team. But it did leave the minors usually barren of the type of decent players that making more standard picks run into. And when he didn't hit that post-Rendon guy the Nats ended up with a organization with limited depth. That they went with Willitis feels like a change even if it was Rizzo's guy originally. We will likely never know.
This team needs this break to reset completely and figure out who they are. They should spend the next few weeks dumping guys with no future here (Finnegan, Bell, Williams, Call - won't get more than you can now, Rosario - ditto), either through lottery ticket trades or DFAs. Then just let the kids play. Then attack FA and the trade market in the off-season. 2025 has long been over. A competitive 2026 is the goal now.
*as safe as any draft pick can be, mind you.
19 comments:
Yep. The June crash basically killed any hope for this year. Lowe, Garcia, Young, Bell, and Crews all underperformed our hopes for them (plus Crews was hurt). DeBartolo needs to eject anybody he can. Finnegan and Chafin out of the pen, Soroka from the rotation (though this year just confirms what last year said--he needs to be a reliever. Lights out first time through the order, meh second time, disaster third time), Call definitely (I don't know why more people don't talk about Call as a trade target; he's hit well for two years running, he's cheap by salary, and he won't cost much to obtain; the Royals or Guardians, for example, ought to be all over that), and Bell (who's at least been hitting lately so maybe someone will take a flier on that hot street). Honestly, I like the idea of moving Garcia as well--Abrams needs to be moved off shortstop, and Garcia has made himself into a solid major-leaguer and has an extra year of control.
Then, as you say, play the kids. Give House and Lile the rest of the year. Let Crews take over CF when/if he returns from injury. Let Cavalli try to establish himself in the rotation (and maybe one of the other kids in place of Ogasawara, who should go to the 'pen where he belongs). Let Chapparo DH.
And start thinking really, really hard about GM candidates and how they're going to fix the underlying organizational philosophy.
Care to comment on the "do they trade Gore" speculation?
I agree that Gore and possibly Abrams should be on the table.
I know it is not likely the narrative, but the pick sure smells of being cheap to me. Everyone immediately pointed out that he would likely sign for under slot, and he is the only player of the top 4 or 5 not represented by Boras. This all just points to Mark Lerner not wanting to sell or let go of the franchise, but he doesn't seem to have the money or motivation to actually do anything profitable. If the GM hire isn't a home run, then likely they are toast for the next few years due to trickle down of a bad owner. (Spare me the Nats aren't cheap talk - that was Ted spending not Mark)
When you go underslot and save bonus pool money, the Lerners don't get to keep it. I mean, they could, but almost no team ever actually does that and the Lerners have spent their maximum allowed 105% of pool every year. And, if you look, you'll see they grabbed were clear overslot names in the 3rd, 4th and 5th rounds.
You can certainly hate the Lerners for not supporting the team as they should, and there are certainly plenty of reasons to not like the Willits pick, but the two things have nothing to do with each other.
I love the Willits pick, he's a 4-tool player with the only tool lacking being power, but he's only 17 so there's a not insignificant chance that he'll develop power in the coming years. Holliday was the big name, but frankly based on the scouting reports he seemed like more of a top 20 pick, not top 5, and his name is what got him up the charts
As for who to trade, it should be anybody with a contract expiring this year or next. Dump as much salary as you can and invest it into extending Gore and signing FAs. They will have to overspend this offseason to attract the talent here they need. My targets would be Ranger Suarez, Pete Alonso, and Kyle Tucker or Cody Bellinger. You land 2 of those guys and the team is immediately in much better shape by replacing Young/Bell in the lineup or Williams in the rotation
To make things clear the Nats have 3 great young players - Wood, Gore, & Abrams. While Wood is here through 2030 if the Nats want, Gore (2027) and Abrams (2028) are gone sooner.
Among your good young players House and Crews are here, but need work/time. Sykora or Susana might show up late next year or in 2027 (or not at all TINSTAAPP). The uncertainty of the pitching makes me think you have to make a serious run at Gore regardless if you are aiming at 2027 or 2029. I wouldn't trade him right now. Abrams is trickier but if you are signing Gore I think you are at least keeping Abrams, maybe not signing him but keeping him.
Why would Gore sign now? Scott Boras wouldn't let him sign now. And down the road, why would Gore want to stay with the Nationals? Even if they matched the high offer of another team? (Which they won't do unless there are new owners.)
Not to be Clint Eastwood in Gran Turino, but trade CJ Abrams to the Dodgers so they can shift Mookie back to RF and platoon Teoscar/Conforto in LF. That play the other day when House charged a ball, looked back Monestario at 2B, threw to first, and Monestario took 3B because CJ was napping was the last straw for me. Yes they are playing out the string with interim leadership and the focus will be lacking, but that's inexcusable. He also didn't run out an inning-ending double play the other day because he thought there were two outs. It's Victor Robles type nonsense. The end-of-last-season demotion hangs over everything and I don't see any change in his focus/demeanor/approach. Contrast that with Luis Garcia who's been mid this year with big defensive regression but clearly has matured as a person despite still being goofy. Yes, CJ's only 24 and his offense has improved in all the ways you want this season, but he will never be a cornerstone guy. Trade him for a king's ransom, let Nuñez play plus defense and hit .100 the rest of the way until Seaver King is ready or Eli Willets can legally drink in 2030.
Boras doesn't "let" anyone sign. He tells them what he thinks (and they usually listen). But the players are the ultimate deciders.
While Boras likely favors "go to market" there's always injury concerns, especially for a pitcher. There IS a number out there that is "if they offer X for Y years it's probably worth grabbing it now" It might be super high but it exists. And if Gore wants to stay he could be ok with something slightly less than X or Y than Boras would be.
I'm ok with dealing Abrams, but I do think you are then losing a piece that's good and cheap NOW so you better replace it. Even if that piece is flighty
To my mind, the big problem with trading Abrams is that with the off-the-field focus and motivation stuff has a huge information asymmetry.
Let's say you're some opposing GM and you think Abrams is worth XYZ in terms of on-the-field value. But you have to reckon with fact that the Nats know him better than you do. They know his habits, and his tendencies, and if the Nats are willing to trade him for XYZ, then the Nats think he isn't worth XYZ.
For on-the-field stuff, enough of it is public and verifiable that the information field is more level. And you might even have what you think is a possible positioning fix or swing cue to add 0.5 or 1 WAR per year in true talent, and that opens up more of a range for a deal that both sides can agree to.
But for an off-the-field issue, especially one that's as volatile as CJ's potential issue (ie it could be basically nothing or it could be a career killer), I just don't see how you get anything close to fair value for him.
Maybe by next summer, it would have been a long enough track record for GM's get on board and believe Abrams has resolved the issues. Let's say he finishes this year at 4.5 - 5 WAR and produces similarly in the first half of 26. Maybe you can find some buyers then.
But I think he's most likely here for the duration, or at least until we're officially "not in contention" for the rest of his control, at which point he may get traded even for a buy-low offer.
Consider also that any Gore extension will buy out two arb years, where he's otherwise not going to get paid like an ace. Offering him something akin to Max Fried's deal would I hope make him stop and think (particularly since the ever-present "because he's a pitcher" risk of, say, TJ hitting in 2027 and gutting his FA earning potential has to be taken into account on his side).
In a vacuum Willits is a good pick, but Kade always felt like the "we're going to compete for the playoffs in 2026" pick. Mid-rotation starter type who could be up next year when the Free Agent class is dire with pitching but strong with bats. This feels like they're moth balling until 2027+
I just want to point out that the new manager has a worse winning pct than Davey did. Insane to fire him the most decorated manager in club history the middle of a bum season on the final year of his contract. Such insane disrespect. It's never the coaching!
Disagree. Too much respect to fire him without humiliation. Hire him just to fire him mid game and make him walk out of the stadium. Follow him with a camera crew and someone shouting "CRY BABY! CRY!"
It feels really funny to trade the players that you traded Soto for. Like what was the point of the trade if 3 players panned out to be valuable and you only keep one? Are we then just going to trade the players we get back for Gore/Abrams? What dumpster fire this org has been for 6 years.
There's the core of a decent team here, they just need to spend money. Look at the 2011 roster and they added Werth and LaRoche because they needed grownup bats and got them. This year they didn't get anything, and 2 good free agents would have made this at least an OK team
If they're never going to sign any free agents anymore, it'll be like Pittsburgh, and screw it, I'll just learn to follow another team. Washington is a real city, and deserves not to have the Pirates.
Why not hang on to Call? He's under control for 4 years. Also, I want to hang on to Finnegan. He's a guy who pitches well despite having crappy peripherals. Nobody else values him, so keep him and make good use of him.
A thing to consider with Boras guys -- not just are they overpriced, but they're overhyped. Boras gets the ESPN talking heads to create buzz about all his guys, and you have to grade the non-Boras guys on a curve. Look how many of his guys are talked up like they're HOFs and end up being Dylan Crews.
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