A lot of things went wrong in 2025 but none were so clearly made to work NOW and so clearly a failure then the Nats' answer at 1B. The Nats brought in Nathaniel Lowe with a trade* to man the position in 2025-2026 likely with an eye for having him possibly be there beyond. He had been a sneaky good 1B, one that ranked 5-10 overall with consistent solid hitting since arriving in the majors and glove that he worked into average to good. There was one thing they didn't consider though...
Nathaniel Lowe is a dog.
In the only possible explanation, after struggling early Lowe stopped trying on a team heading nowhere showing terribly in the field and the plate. The Nats had no recourse but the jettison him for what ever they could get. He immediately started trying again for the Red Sox putting up decent numbers and solidifying himself as a jackass. But knowing that doesn't help the Nats much. They are now unexpectedly without a 1B for 2026 with his positional replacement Josh Bell, who was signed for a 1 year stop DH gap, also gone.
Presumed Plan :
A FA stop gap with a back-up from within or a stretch trial for someone here with a FA stop gap DH as the quick back-up replacement.
Reasoning behind Presumed Plan :
There's nothing in the minors. The Nats tried Andres Chaparro at the position but he didn't look good at the plate and isn't a natural fielder. He might turn the bat around to not be a total embarrassment but you don't want to go into a season relying on that. Yohandy Morales looked like he might be on the fast track for a trial but he struggled in AAA. Completely reasonable for a 23 year old, but it does mean he doesn't factor into 2026 plans.
There's nothing obvious here. You could move James Wood here now, but that seems premature given his age and you don't want to rock the boat with your best young player. You could move Daylen Lile here now, but you don't want to rock the boat with a young player just coming into his own. You could move Luis Garcia there now, but you have to imagine it's easier to find a 1B than a 2B.
So what's left is a FA. A FA 1B would make the most sense letting the Nats try to find a bat at DH and if the 1B fails maybe that DH takes over, but a free agent DH that could take over 1B is also a possibility.
My Take :
Two positions in and there is nothing good or easy to speak of. The Nats need to fill this position and can't internally so to the FA pool they go. They likely aren't serious about winning in 2026 so a Ryan O'Hearn (the best non Alonso option with Naylor off the table) isn't going to be a target. Is there any reason not to just bring back Josh Bell, a guy you like and has shown he'll play here and actually try? Guys like Carlos Santana, Paul Goldschmidt, and Justin Turner, are very slightly better than Bell and offer some veteran presence but could also just crash out. Rhys Hoskins and Luis Arraez make interesting gambles, especially Arraez whose batting approach resembles Lile's an approach that most players can't make work in the long term but he has, but both may be looking for multi-year deals, even if cheap ones, the Nats aren't likely to give. So after that no, there's not really a reason not to just bring back Bell.
The specific DH field is weak. Schwarber who will get paid, Ozuna who I don't want, then nothing. So I don't like the FA DH route.
I think looking at this I like Arraez for 2+ years if that what it takes but I'm not going to blame the Nats if they don't go this route. I also kind of think there might be a 2B around late in FA that would be worth grabbing. We should keep an eye on that. However, I think most likely is they just sit and watch FA and in early March they grab the best hitter they can for a 1 year "prove it" deal and they figure out what that means for 1B. I don't like it but I also am not going to fool myself to think that there's anything out there the Nats should go for or that they would go for it if they could.
*for Robert Garcia who immediately showed he was a very good lefty reliever - the type that would have likely brought back more in trade than Lowe.
20 comments:
Bell reunion seems like the best bet. Sam Brown is a maybe, but it's more likely he never appears in the big leagues for the Nats.
Christian Franklin can hit. The better fielder between him and Lile plays RF, the other goes to 1B.
Bell is a terrific guy. I'd love to have him as a friend and neighbor. But please don't bring him back. He's a terrible first baseman. In particular, he misses almost every short hop. Given that CJ Abrams isn't very accurate, a first baseman with at least average defensive skills is a must. Can we see if Ryan Z or Adam LaRoche want to make a comeback?
Harper, how do you feel about the "Garcia to 1b, Abrams to 2b, Nunez to SS" idea that's kicking around the InterNats? I have my thoughts, but am interested in yours.
Please not Arraez. He's been in decline, he can't run, he can't field, he can't walk, and he can't hit for power. The guy he used to be was a valuable player, but the only skill he has any more is to hit singles thirty percent of the time he comes to the plate.
Resigning Bell honestly doesn't sound awful. The only other option that makes any sense is a big push for Alonso, but they'll definitely have to overpay him in dollars, years, or both to get him to come to Washington and his '23-'24 performance makes me worry that he's already starting to slide, and making a big-dollar splash for a DH (and let's face it, Alonso is more DH than 1B and that will only grow over time) may not be the best use of capital. Still, even if Alonso is more a 120 wRC+ bat going forward than 140, that's still better than most of the possibilities...
If Lile's bat is real, maybe moving him isn't a bad idea since the Nats are awash in outfield prospects and either Young or Hassell or someone else could get an opportunity out there. Agree that you probably don't want to move Wood just yet, especially since he did improve his defense from nauseating to merely bad in '25 and the new FO seems to be making player development a key aspect of their approach based on who's been hired (starting with Toboni himself).
I like moving Abrams to 2b and starting Nunez at SS. I worry about Abrams losing his swagger and confidence with a move to 2b, but I don't think he's a good enough SS. I'm done with Garcia, though. Something about the way he looks at the plate bothers me. His swing never looks good to me.
Resigning Bell may be best?? Ugh... the Nats are truly in a sad state...
Even in 2025, Bell was one of the better DH signings. Did anybody look at Joc Pederson's stats? Awful
I don't know. Everything about Nunez's 2025 here reads "fluky power". He's never hit like that before anywhere including same year in AAA before getting called up. And all of his value came from fastball hitting. He's generally a chaser who can't hit anything else.
on the other hand he IS a very good defender and him and House at 3B could be the best defensive left side of the IF in baseball (off the top of my head).
I guess I'm ok with it in the "I don't know what they are going to do - this seems non-objectionable" sort of way. I do think more likely is CJ is gone though and that clears your spot for Abrams.
I agree that Lowe is a very rare case where I feel comfortable inferring character / motivation issues. I'd at least listen to a "Nats have bad coaches" narrative if it was just the hitting or just the defense, but the fact that both were bad for us after being good for years, and then immediately pretty good again when he goes to Boston - yeah, he's a dog. And it's going to probably cost him at least $5M in 2026 salary. (Which doesn't make me feel better about trading for him, but least Garcia was more solid than elite for the Rangers - still a bad trade, but it could be worse.)
I also agree that we'd like to see more from Morales before he's promoted. The good news is that his AA wRC+ improved 30 points between 24 and 25 - he does the same next year in AAA and I think he earns a look in the majors.
And, Harper, the reason that its easier for the Nats to find a 2B than a 1B is that there's already one on the roster - Nunez. Or, like John C suggests, put Nunez at SS and shift Abrams over. Either would improve our defense considerably. Nunez now has 170 PAs of almost league average hitting to go with his obviously plus defense. It's not a long track record, but not a tiny sample size either.
If I'm Toboni, I'm taking a run at the serious FAs (Alonso, O'Hearn, maybe Murakami or Okamoto if the scouts think they'll be average or better in the field), but I don't expect it to work out. If those guys fall through, my plan A is probably to try Garcia. And then maybe sign the "whoever is left" one year deal as the backup / contingency plan.
I don't know. It's hard to put together a winning team with an on-field budget of
$60M. (And the real funny thing is that Garcia himself is a borderline non-tender case! Maybe they cut him and try to get the payroll under $50M. Let's all root for the Washington Rent Seekers.)
Man, this is depressing. A far cry from days of old when we’d unpack the off season position reviews and complain they Lobaton is automatic out as a back up C (which he was). Two positions down and what optimism remains? House’s defense, Wood’s bat (first half), Young’s defense, and Lile’s bat (second half)? And the rotation… yikes.
Agree with SMS: very hard to put together a competitive team with a $60M budget. Hope that changes. If not, they need to collectively drop down to the International League.
A great thing about the British soccer Premier League is relegation. The bottom two teams in the standings get relegated down and the top two minor league teams move up into the Premier League. Its unworkable with the way MLB is organized --- but it would put pressure on poor performing teams to spend. And it would enable an upward path for minor league towns.
Actually it is the bottom three teams but who follows the Premier League? They don't even have standings, it is called a table and draws are shown between the win and loss column.
Bellinger, Murakami, and perhaps Okamoto will get bigger deals than O'Hearn. FWIW, MLBTR and Fangraphs crowd source have both O'Hearn and Arraez getting 2 years for mid-$20 millions ($12 -$14 million AAV). If they are right, then O'Hearn is the obvious way to go among the two. Ben Clemens suggests 2 years, $30 million for O'Hearn, not outrageous.
I would try to sign Garcia for less than $7 million and go with him at 1st. I think the Garcia decision will be this week when they decide to tender arbitration or not. If no deal can be cut, then pursue O'Hearn or Bell.
another option to think about would be trade targets in a Gore or Abrams deal. For example, if Alonso signs with the Mets or the Red Sox and try to deal for Gore to strengthen their rotation, then Vientos or Casas may become available as part of a package for Gore.
Casas "may become available?" The dude just faceplanted a season in 2025. He was posting a miserable .182/.277/.303/.580, 62 OPS+/56 wRC+ -0.9 bWAR/-0.6 fWAR season and then he had a serious knee injury. Breslow in Boston refused to commit to him as a starter. TL;DR: he's damaged goods. He might be a throw-in to a Gore deal, but he would be the 3rd or 4th player in the deal, not the headliner. He's not nothing - he's a rebound candidate with three seasons of team control. But in addition to the injury and coming off a lousy season, he's really slow and not a great fielder.
Michael Toglia is an option, but maybe they don't want another guy with contact issues
Dylan Crews after Game 162: “I think a lot of times this year, we were able to just kind of brush that things underneath the rug when we should have said something. I think from the start next year, we really need to hold each other accountable and just set the tone, find the standard for next year.”
This quote by DC is very revealing about the clubhouse culture that has persisted since Rizzo started selling off all the pieces of the 2019 championship roster. Our young core has only known losing. Poor coaching, losing baseball, and no peer-to-peer accountability. This team really lacks veteran leadership. Idk if Pete Alonso is THAT guy, but I’m fine paying top dollar for a veteran to come here on a multi-year deal and establish a clubhouse culture and help hold these young guys accountable. Maybe the new skip helps that, but it doesn’t start and end with him. Whoever that veteran presence is, if they are only here for 81-162 games before getting dealt for prospects, then expect more of the same and a wasted opportunity on a young and talented core group of players.
agree Casas would be one of the pieces and not the headliner. Certainly not enough on his own. I like the power. It was a patella tendon; IDK the recovery projection for that. I'd trust Toboni's evaluation of anyone in the Boston system.
Happy Thanksgiving, one and all! I am grateful for baseball and for sites like this one, providing an oasis amidst the mishegoss that surrounds us. On to 2026!
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