The Nats keep chugging along four steps forward, five steps back, and last game Foster Griffin shut down the White Sox. Ignore the White Sox for a moment, any chance the fancy stats say something is real here?
No.
Griffin has pitched a lot like Jake Irvin but his BABIP sits at .233 (abnormally low) and his LOB% at 90.3% (abnormally high) and so they aren't scoring the runs off his that they "should". He's not getting a crazy amount of GBs (could be better) or avoiding hard contact (no one really hits him softly). Poking around here and there I see barely anything. What I can say is his off-speed stuff is good, but his fastball is crap. He's a junkballer. The ERA is an illusion and he's just fine. But hey! Just fine is... well fine!
Two things to wonder about this week
Nasim Nunez is showing you why he was available in the Rule V draft and also why the Nats picked him up and kept him. His defense is outstanding and I wouldn't be surprised if playing the whole season at 2B he ends up the 2nd best at the position (Nico Hoerner is truly something) but the guy can't hit. He is among the weakest swingers in the game and he also has an issue making good contact. This would be a bit more palatable at SS where his D would help more and CJ Abrams is a bad fielder. It makes too much sense. Why don't we move these guys around please?
I don't know what is to be done about the catcher position. Ruiz is still terrible. Millas hasn't done anything with his chances. Riley Adams, who they are only keeping around as org depth is doing nothing in AAA. Harry Ford, who they hoped would hot start himself into a solution, is doing less. Caleb Lomavita... well he's hanging in AA but he's clearly not ready for the majors. Kevin Bazzell, the "hmmm maybe this is a savvy draft pick" from a couple years back is looking like a 2028 Car Dealer of the Year. As Olivia Rodrigo (new album drops in June) would sing - it's brutal out there.
Oh since I'm in the minors anything of big interest early?
- Gavin Fein - the "this is the good guy they got from Texas" hurt his wrist and hasn't played in almost three weeks.
- Seaver King looks good early in AA - not shocking but exactly the improvement across the board you'd hope for after last years middling half-season. Similar take from the couple years younger Luke Dickerson a couple levels down.
- Landon Harmon has started hot. Might need a bit more stretching out but seems too good for the Fred Nats already.
- And what of Dylan Crews? Still lost. In real danger of being a can't miss that missed.
7 comments:
The thing with Nunez that's worth looking at, however, are his fancy stats. His K rate is down just a little, his BB rate is up a good bit, and he's hitting a few more line drives. His babip is .262, which for a speedster hitting line drives, should be around 315 or so. If he can sustain that, he should have an OPS around 600, which would be fine for a glove-first shortstop.
I agree that Griffin's true talent ERA is more likely 4.30 than 2.70, but that still has a ton of value. We traded Soroka last year for Christian Franklin and Ronny Cruz (who's getting a ton of hype right now). That was the plan when they signed Griffin, and his performance so far has been 100% on track for that.
And, unfortunately, that's how I understand the Nuñez/Abrams issue too. I think this team is looking to trade Abrams and believes that he will get maximum return if he's a shortstop. Winning 1 or 2 more games by putting the better defender at the more important position does not matter to them. We'll get to see Nuñez at short the last couple months of the year.
For the catchers, I think the plan is to hope Millas plays better or Ford does. No one else is in the consideration set. (Well, maybe Adams if there's an injury.)
I think give them another few weeks (especially for the pitchers), but you should do a post running down how all the prospects are doing so far this season. In addition to the guys you name checked, there are some compelling arrow up-guys (Cruz, Fitz-Gerald, Sime) and a couple of interesting disappointing spots (Perales, maybe Clemmey). On the topic of Perales, Jake Bennett has thrown 21 innings of sub-1.00 ERA for Worcester.
Agree with SMS that Cruz (now Fangraphs #4 Nats prospect), Fitz-Gerald, and Sime should get a mention at some point on the blog
Agree. I think he's more the 80 OPS+ guy than the 50 OPS+ guy. The latter you pull from the line-up the former you maximize his value if possible (and you can for Nunez)
I would think the Abrams thing would be cut and dried in this era. Are there really teams that are going to look at him and say "well he's terrible at SS but he is AT SS"? I just don't think there are anymore.
Yeah there IS no plan at C. Muddle through and see where Ford and Lomavita are at the end of the year.
I imagine mid May we'll take a longer look at prospects before sort of the official Memorial Day "ok this is the real Nats mostly" post
Never! Well ok you talked me into it. Later!
It's interesting that the Nats are like knee deep in SS prospects, which is generally what you want. Then again in mid 2021 we were saying that about Kieboom, Garcia and House and so far it didn't turn out as you'd hope. Better org for it this time maybe
I hear your point on Abrams, but I still believe there's a loss in negotiation capital when the other GM can say "Even you wouldn't even play him at short!"
There's also an angle where maybe they don't want to risk a bad initial run at second. Yes, CJ is bad at SS and everyone knows it, but maybe there's only downside risk to letting the league see him play 2B.
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