When the Nats traded a handful of good players* it was thought that it would hurt but the Nats weren't going for anything anyway. Get some more ABs and IP for some kids and get ready for 2027. But the Nats just haven't been bad, they've been one of the worst teams in baseball - and for a while now thanks to the loss of James Wood to injury. An 8-20 worst since July 28th. A 24-38 third-worst since June 16th.
Are you not entertained? No you are not.
What about the kids? Well unless you love Andrew Pinckney and near 26 year olds having a good 20 PAs there aren't any kids at the plate doing well. The Nasim Nunez can't hit issues are not that bad because the Nats have a handful of MI at the top of their minor league prospect lists. Dylan Crews though. There's been a fun little thing on social media since Wyatt Langford came up first that the Nats made a mistake** and there's been a vocal Dylan Crews army defending him. That group has gotten a lot quieter over these past few months.
I think I mentioned a few months ago how absolutely STACKED that draft ended up being in retrospect and it's quite possible Crews ends up being like 12th or 13th best out of the Top 16 players drafted that year. Currently he sits at 8th. Skenes and Langford, then Nolan Shanuel, Matt Shaw, Jacob Wilson, Rhett Lowder and Kyle Teel 7th with 2.0 bWAR. Crews is at 1.1 in about double the playing time. So I'm not enthused he's catching up soon.
Behind Crews is Bryce Eldridge who should pass him be the end of the year, Max Clark who came up in the past couple of months and is htting better than Crews at a much younger age. There's also Walker Jenkins who is one of the top prospects in the game and is tearing up AAA, who'd I bet on. And if you twist my arm I'm also taking Chase Dollander to have a better career who was looking like a top-mid starter but went down to TJ surgery.
That would leave him at 12th. Tommy Troy is a question mark - I don't love him but he does play SS so he'll get chances. This is about the same with Jacob Gonzalez. So split the difference and Crews is 13th best. One of these two is behind him along with Blake Mitchell a KC draftee C that is young (just turned 22 but is striking out SO MUCH in high A right now. It's not Elijah Green numbers but if you are pushing 35% in A+ that's scary for AA, let alone the majors. And Noble Meyer, one of those great arms that can't get under control and is also injured now so yeah don't like those chances. But he'll get the reliever trial in a year or so so who knows.
Anyway I got off track. Crews stinks. I get why they picked him but pee-yew. Sometimes the peach is just rotten on the inside.
Pitching wise - it's hard. You know a lot of very small samples. For the ones that weren't Dion looked good up until last games implosion. We'll see what the next one brings. The one kid getting starts*** Jackson Kent has been bad. We'll have to look back later but nothing to get excited about.
So no winning, no good kids. A depressing slog toward 2027 where maybe the depth of the organization comes through and with Wood back... or maybe they trade CJ over the winter because there isn't anything saying next year could be a break out. Sigh.
*Mead - broke wrist, might be back late September. Griffin - being Griffin. Garcia - being Garcia
**yes, an understandable one, imo, but still one.
***Cavalli looks good but he was already here. Alvarez has been fine but he's 27/28 next year. Not a kid.
31 comments:
I'm sure there will be some fans consoled by better draft position / lottery odds, but I agree that it has been a rough month of baseball. Ortiz and House have been playing meh or worse too.
Crews having OF4 true talent is a big hit for the org in terms of abstract value, but it's actually not that big of an obstacle to building a winner, as long as the team isn't committed to maximum austerity.
Move Wood to DH (where he frankly belongs) and make room to sign an FA outfielder. Tons of options. Happ, Suzuki, Arozarena, Chisholm. I'm probably missing a couple. If they're willing to be the 20th highest payroll, they'd have $80M in AAV to spend, so they should be able to win the bidding on one of those guys.
The pickings are slimmer over at 1B and 3B. We should have gotten Murakami last year. At this point, I think I'd just let it ride and hope folks get better. Maybe address it at the deadline, in futures where we are competitive. Same with SS. Put Nuñez on the bench, and give King a chance. If he fails and it makes sense, consider trading for a stopgap. Fitz-Gerald and Willits should be knocking on the door by 2028.
But even during this terrible month of baseball, the offense has still been about average. The top FA priority is at least 3 at least decent relievers. The next priority is a frontline starter if it's possible*. And then they can worry about all the soft spots in the lineup.
* I think it's just Skubal and Sonny Gray, though maybe I'm missing a name or two -- and with such a tight market, it might well be impossible. But I'm really really hoping that they try.
On the bright side, I went to my first Nats game this season on Monday and they won 13-3!
The lone bright spot has been my big beefy boi Andres Chaparro getting ABs vs RHP and continuing to rake.
Did you see Trey Lipscomb has 29 HR this season? Is this real life?
I'm not ready to give up on Crews yet until next year (if there is a next year). It's unfathomable that a "can't miss" bat is so dreadful, so I have to think something is simply wrong with his approach or something and coaching can sort it out
Heck you look at his statcast numbers and it just doesn't add up. Above average exit velo, barrel rate, hard hit rate, etc. xwOBA well above actual wOBA. But his K-rate and BB rate are pretty high, as is the chase rate. So I think pitch recognition just needs to get sorted, because when he makes contact he ends up hitting it well
Maybe platoon Crews and Lile?
https://www.federalbaseball.com/washington-nationals-analysis/93781/nationals-should-consider-platooning-daylen-lile-dylan-crews-2027
I have no problem with the Nats drafting Crews. Go back to his draft class and the analysis was that Crews and Skenes were the best two players in the draft by a healthy margin. In fact, many analysts had Crews rated number one. Everyone agreed that these two would go one and two. Pittsburgh actiually made the Nats choice when they took Skenes first. It would have been GM malpractice to have picked any other player at number two. He hasn't worked out and never will. But Rizzo made the right choice given the scouting reports at the time and that is all you can do. The entire draft is a crap shoot and you have to learn to live with 'baseball luck'.
Way to *reverse jinx* Kent into an excellent start, Harper. Keep up the good work. On the pitching side I know that you're leaning into the negative here, but to simply discount Cavalli as having already arrived ignores the fact that his MLB experience coming into this season was not only limited (11 starts), it wasn't all that good. He came into this season with -0.1 bWAR/0.6 fWAR in those starts. I would argue that this season he HAS arrived as a potential TOR starter. Someone (OK, it was me) recently asked MLBTR's Steve Adams in one of the "Front Office Mailbags" how sustainable Cavalli's production seemed to be. His initial, TL;DR answer was "very."
Then he went into a long discussion of how coming into the season he had concerns that Cavalli would end up in the bullpen, but that "the new Nationals’ front office and player development staff has seemingly pushed Cavalli from a raw but unpolished starter to someone who looks very capable of pitching at or near the front of a major league rotation. We’ll see how he holds up next year after likely tossing 170-ish innings this season, but through 148 2/3 frames, Cavalli shows no signs of slowing down." Adams cited both the significant improvements in Cavalli's stuff but a revised (and more effective) pitch mix. He's still under team control for three more seasons, so despite his age for me he counts as one of the kids and a real hook on which to hang hope for the future.
I'm pretty entertained, since despite the Nats' overall record since July 28 they are 4-2 in the games that I've attended. Baseball.
Think about setting up a Go Fund Me account to buy season tickets.
GO TO MORE GAMES
I don’t think we should trade him to the Blue Jays….
If I remember, the contrarians were pushing Langford and they had an argument. But the general consensus was Crews-Skenes, or vice-versa.
While Willits is working his a$$ off and looks to be on a solid trajectory, Fitz-Gerald needs serious development and just looks bad after a hot start, and may be regressing terribly at the plate.
Don't agree with Harper's doom scenario. Even with Nunez and Dylan in the line up, the team still leads the league in home runs, stolen bases and runs. A historically-bad bull pen hides what should be an 80+ win team. Sunday night Butera calls out Kranick to finish an otherwise well-played game -- a guy with no business in MLB who isn't going to be around in '27. BB had no choice but to play the dregs given.
Of course they weren't playing to win. They were running AAAA tryouts. And hopefully next year there is budget to plug the obvious bull pen and defensive holes.
While waiting for better relief pitchers, there are three ways to soften the damage: 1/ score lots of runs, 2/ get your starters to last 6 or 7 innings, 3/ don't schedule bullpen games that burn 3+ pitchers. We are historically bad in relief because we failed all three. Better relievers, yes; a full stable of starters, essential. Even some of our marginal relief pitchers would be adequate if they didn't have to cover so many innings.
Fitz-Gerald's slash line in August is 310/390/493, so maybe he is figuring AA out a little bit
I don't think they're failing on point 1. They score the most runs in MLB. Yes, they have slowed down some, but they're still racking up 4+ run leads (before blowing them) pretty frequently.
Mostly it's roster construction, but some of it is managerial decisions. Using their good (relatively speaking) relievers in low-leverage situations then not having them for tight games, not going to defensive replacements (Young would have made the catch in the 7th on Saturday and the inning ends there), and occasional lack small ball tactics can be placed on Butera. Otherwise what we are looking at is a decent team without its best player on offense.
It's very funny they started winning as soon as this was posted (not that I disagree with the premise)
@kubla. I agree--it is wrong to blame the hitters for not scoring enough runs....especially since they have done an incredible job this year. However, as a team strategy, it is a failure. If anything, the 2026 Nats are proof that a poor pitching staff (especially weak relievers), cannot be offset by concentrating on better hitters. Like last night, the ninth inning was agonizing for what--on most teams and in most games--is a straight mop-up.
I also agree about the part played by managerial decisions. I think Butera has the makings of a great manager, but there has been too little written about his rookie mistakes and failures to adapt his general approaches to specific situations. I am uncomfortable but accepting of his devotion to platoon match-ups, but not if it means that our late-inning line-ups are weak defensively because he emptied the bench by pinch hitting players earlier in the game.
I also agree about
The salary cap proposed by the league would incentivize some teams (hello Dodgers!) to unload contracts. This might expand the array of available arms. The proposal won't be adopted in its current form as it favors the owners. But a higher floor and cap might be worked out.
I'm pretty sure that, in futures where the new CBA includes a cap, there's no baseball in 2027.
Starting pitching is still paramount. Always will be. Zimm was in the booth the other night and said as much. It so difficult to get 4-5 really good relievers. But if you can have 3-4 starters who will give you 6+ innings every start, then you really only need 2-3 solid relievers.
Remember, the vast majority of relievers are failed starters.
It’s funny that a bullpen game with this team highlights the fact that we have no reliable starter in that spot in the rotation. AND we get to showcase independent ball relief pitchers.
Congratulations to the Washington Nationals bullpen. After last nights game, the Nationals now have 37 blown saves tying hem with the 2024 Chicago White Sox. The over and under is 42. I will take the over.
According to Mark Zuckerman at Nats Journal, last night was "only" their 36th blown save so they are still one shy of the 2024 WS. But that record is going to be theirs, oh yes it is.
Nothing like a little anticipation, but you are correct. It is "only 36". The real question is Taboni try and fix it with some established relievers or will it be dumpster diving because "we aren't ready to win". The answer will tell you about Taboni.
Another day, another blown save. We tie the all time record of 37. Move over White Sox, we are about to pass you by.
How low can they go? We are only 1 game ahead of the Mets.
On the other hand, if we had 10 of those blown saves back...we would have 77 wins and be a half game ahead of Arizona for the last NL wildcard spot. A dozen and we would be competing with Phillies for the second WC spot.
The major league average for blown saves so far this year is 16. The NL average so far in 2026 is 17. If we were just MLB average we would have 11 more wins and would be competing with he Philadelphia. Being cheap has consequences.
History in the making!
Congratulations to the Nats. You just rolled up blown save 38 which sets a new MLB record. Sorry White Sox fans. Over and under for the season is 42 and I have the over.
Expect no accountability either. Maybe some vague “gotta be better there” but that’s all the fans will get. No investigative journalism into why this was a an acceptable pitching staff heading into this season. In case any one forgot, this is not a serious organization.
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