Nationals Baseball: Detwiler ERA challenge!

Friday, April 19, 2013

Detwiler ERA challenge!

Simple game - Guess Detwiler's ERA at season's end.  Winner gets a prize yet to be determined. Missouri State Hat? This fantastic Ross Geller brooch? (Note: It will not be that)

I'll say 3.65. I know I said 3.75 yesterday but I have to factor in the luck he's already have. You can't assume bad luck will even it out. You have to assume even luck and what has gone on so far to be a nice little plus for Detwiler.

These are closest wins rules, not Price is Right rules.  Ross must pitch more innings than last year (164.1) for it to count.

Also if Ross breaks 3.20 in ERA, his "average" over the past two years, I will eat another HAT.  We'll make it Havarti, Apple and Tuna sandwich.  That sounds ok.

Added Rule : No guessing .01 away from someone else  Don't be a jerk about it. .05 or .00 guesses are preferable but since there are a couple ones not like that already out there I'm not going to stop you if you want to guess 1.43.

(also - you don't have to take a guess that hasn't been made) 

CONTEST CLOSED!

56 comments:

Ethan Stone said...

I'll ignite my Natitude and say 3.14. If I win I want you to eat a pie instead of a HAT

Harper said...

ES - I'll gladly eat pie if you win. You can even chose the pie (as long as it's edible - Im not wasting time making a whole pie I have to choke down one slice of)

Chinatown Express said...

3.40, but only because Rendon's arm is going to play well at 3B. I see a lot of 5-1 GB throwouts in Ross's future.

Chinatown Express said...

3.40, but only because Rendon's arm is going to play well at 3B. I see a lot of 5-1 GB throwouts in Ross's future.

Carl said...

Good question. I think about 3.45 sounds right.

BlueLoneWolf said...

Harper, Imma cut you off at the knees and say 3.60 even.

mike k said...

You should disallow guesses that are .01 away from someone else's so there's no punishment for guessing early.

3.25.

D28 said...

Ok then, as a guess I'll take 3.0

We'd all like to see that happen!

cass said...

3.82

Harper said...

mk - I guess that makes sense. No "A thousand and one" guesses people. But that's it. you are guaranteed only a 3 point spread at best.

Memes, Dreams, and Schemes said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Pumpkin Escobar said...

3.31

Shane said...

2.97 - Cy Young consideration . . . I mihgt be drunk some from last night, but what the hell . . .

Max said...

3.56. I think he'll continue to be solid, but can't imagine much lower than that...

NatsLAfan said...

I'm taking 3.20 at the end which is a slight tick down from last year.

Strasburger said...

3.35 And sticking with it-If I win I want a tall cool budweiser.

Chaz R said...

Harper, you're going to think I'm crazy but I feel really good about Ross this year. Yea, I was there last year at this time, but really didn't have this same feeling. I think he's matured and I think the "peer pressure" from the other starters will raise his game. I'm going with 3.25

gleongelpi said...

I say 2.66

Marc Gunther said...

I'm going with 3.80.

Two of his games were against Miami, remember.

He's still a solid starter.

I wonder what numbers you'd get if you ran a poll about Dan Haren.

Harper said...

Marc - no one thinks Haren is going to pitch 160 innings. Be serious ya kidder!

Jimmy said...

Eh how bout 3.72

Anonymous said...

I'm going high end; he's going to get shelled in 2IP a few times this year. 3.85

Chaos

Scott J said...

Im going to guess 2.90. He pitched against a hot team and did fairly well.

D28 said...

I read this story and found it ridiculous. I would be interested in hearing your opinions!

http://grandstandgazette.com/2013/04/19/is-washingtons-davey-johnson-cursed/

Keith Raymond said...

I'll take 3.27

Tyler R. said...

I'm going even at 3.50

Keith Raymond said...

make it 3.28 to leave room for 3.25 and 3.31 I guess.

Pescado said...

4.05

bsimon24 said...

3.33!

Ben said...

What odds do I get for betting the no pass line (164.1 IP) under the condition that Rizzo brings back The Wang to once again relegate Det to the pen?

I have a gambling problem.

Anonymous said...

Someone said he pitched two games against Miami, he has faced the Reds, Braves, and Marlins all once.

Kevin Reeves said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Kevin Reeves said...

I'm going to say Det end's up with a solid 2.98 ERA, and that's my over-estimate, he could very well go lower.

Harper said...

Kevin - 2.98 is a no go. 2.97 guessed previously. 2.99 also bad (3.00 guessed).

Josh Aebischer said...

4.00 He throws too many fastballs to keep this pace up. Too many good fastball hitters in the bigs.

Anonymous said...

2.57

Mythical Monkey said...

I'm going with 3.09. With, say, 14 wins.

Kevin Fries said...

3.35 ftw

Miles Treacy said...

3.48

Greg said...

2.61 ERA, 19 wins, candidate for Cy, but only after he gets moved up to fourth in the rotation.

Also, can I vent? What the hell is up with most of the MLB stats trackers? Just because a guy is a fifth starter he gets dropped halfway through every week because of lack of innings? Hello, everyone these days has five starters! Why punish a guy just because he starts fifth, especially if he puts up quality starts every time he pitches?? Why not just set the inning minimum at 5x6 (innings) x games. Duh!!

Anonymous said...

I'm going with 0.2 ERA- after the Nats call up a young rookie from Kansas, Clark Kent, awesome fielder. He's faster than a Aroldis Chapman fastball, more powerful than that train thing at Minute Maid Park in Houston, able to leap Chris Young in a single bound.

mwyche said...

I'll guess 3.54 BTW I read your blog all the time its gr8

VoxR said...

You should look at the improvement in all of his pitches over the last few years (compare 2010 and 2012). He's added a little speed to his heaters and is throwing them much more. That kind of change can certainly explain dramatically improved results. And if he's got more movement on his sinker he'd get a bunch more ground balls.

You also can't weight the 2011 and 2012 ERAs the same. Use just the starts, since that's what he's doing now, and then you get a more reasonable 3.35 "average" ERA.

My guess: an incremental improvement to 3.30.

Zimmerman11 said...

3.75... Because a soulless automaton should never second guess himself.

Andrew Goldstein said...

3.46.

Anonymous said...

4.00 It starts to go sideways with the next start.

Anonymous said...

Mainly I want to commend you for doing this. When I commented in your previous post (Illusions) that I didn't get how you could conclude his ERA would be 3.75 this year, citing his performances over the last two years, I thought the comment would either be ignored, or you would be defensive in your response (not because that's what I expected from YOU, but rather because it's such a typical response from bloggers who rely heavily on advanced stats). Instead you did this, which invites us all to take our best guess -- and we'll see who was right at the end of the season. Bravo!
As for my guess, I expect him to do better than last season, so I'll guess 3.20. Someone may already have that, but that's about where I think he'll wind up.

Zimmerman11 said...

Semisoft Danish Cheese? How UnAmerican! I think you should use aerosol bacon-flavored cheese type substance. You gotta be careful going all "foodie" on a baseball blog there, Harp. The beer and bbq thing was okay because you mixed it with minor league baseball. But don't be going all Gouda on us!!! Or, rather, take the brined watermelon and trouffle-infused aoli to another blog :)

Robert Gittings said...

I'm going to say 3.33 and if it turns out to be anything over that i will take full responsibility for the jinx.

blovy8 said...

2.83 with smoke and mirrors, well, at least smoke.

Anonymous said...

Det must look like Sandy Koufax to the hitters after they see Haren the day before. So lets guess Sandy's career ERA, 2.76 for Det this year.
-Vdub

Harper said...

CLOSED!

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