Nationals Baseball: Monday Quickie - Is this the week?

Monday, February 04, 2019

Monday Quickie - Is this the week?

Pitchers and Catchers will report beginning sometime next week, depending on your team. There are still a good number of FAs that remain unsigned. You can take a look over here. They rank by WAR but consider that a rough ranking.

We're mostly waiting to see what happens with Bryce (and Manny.. (and Kuechel)) as where they go can change the balance of a division. But given the availability of decent talent is there anywhere the Nats can go to finish up their roster? Or do you consider it complete right now?

Here's the depth chart.  This hasn't been entirely updated. (Matt Adams where are you?) but it's pretty close. And what you see is that the Nats are pretty well set, but they aren't without areas that could be improved. That's in theory doesn't mean you can improve them with what's left, though.

4th OF - MAT.  I like MAT as a 4th OF and advocated him sticking around. He's a top notch fielder to be a late-inning defensive replacement (Hey Soto!) and fast enough to be a pinch runner when needed (hey Zimm!). He's has enough offensive ability that he can give any of the guys out there a rest for a day and if you need him to start for a week or two, he has enough experience to do that as well.  However, he's not perfect as he's a big whiffer and probably peaked at the plate. Is there a better option out there? 

Guys with more reliable bats (Granderson, Span!, Deitrich) are questionable fielders and not as fast so I'm not sure they fit the bill for the Nats (more on that in a second) Craig Gentry I suppose has made himself into a reasonable 4th OF and maybe you prefer a higher average and more contact to MAT's approach but as he's a good deal older than MAT I wouldn't make a change here just to do it. Adam Jones looks tempting but has two years of data now saying he's not a plus OF anymore. So he fits in the Granderson/Span area - just a bit younger for those that are choosing between these guys.

So it's hard for me to pick someone over MAT.  That becomes more apparent when you work out the roster.

If Adams is on, and he should be, as the primary LHB PH / Zimm's rest guy, and Kendrick is on as the primary 2B/3B utility guy that leaves possibly no room for Difo.  It depends on how the Nats roll with the pen, but last year they did start with 8 men. If there is no Difo (or more accurately if they use Difo's one remaining option to stash him in AAA in case a SS is needed) then there is no late inning pinch runner on the team except for MAT. As for MATs offensive hang-ups, well it's likely that Kendrick would take over any long-term OF replacement position (If it's CF then Eaton would probably shift - not ideal but they'd make a go at it).

All in all I have a hard time pulling out MAT for any FA given his fit


UTIL - Difo.  Now we just talked about how Difo could very well be a Fresno Grizzly to start the year. But if the Nats choose to go with a 7 man pen then Difo, or a util player, is in.  Difo's strengths are similar to MATs - good defense, good speed - but he lacks any sort of bat to make him playable as more than a spot start and even that's probably not ideal.  Beyond Turner and Rendon the rest of the bunch (Dozier, Kendrick, Adams, Zimm) aren't top notch fielders so a D replacement is nice, but it's not as explicitly necessary as it might be in the OF.  Is there a speedy, good field option out there who isn't a hole at the plate?

Jose Iglesias is an interesting option. Oh he's definitely a hole at the plate, however while Difo is a good defender Iglesias is a superior one. He wouldn't be quite the pinch runner Difo would be but as a defensive replacement it's hard to get better. Adeiny Hechevarria is probably a little better version than Difo but it's hard to see the point on getting 20% better on a spot you don't plan to use very often. Andrew Romine? No. Sean Rodriguez? No.

All in all I see one option for the Nats here, and that's Iglesias if they are so inclined. I'd like him slightly better in the "last man - super D sub" role than Difo. But this is only if the Nats are inclined to fill that role and not, like I think they may, use the spot for an extra pen arm


Pen - Here is the current state of the Nats pen

Closer - Doolittle - He's really good. He's also a constant injury risk hitting even the low bar of 50IP once in the past 4 years.
Set-up - Rosenthal - Huge question mark given he didn't even pitch last year. He's been bouncing around between lights out and very good for his career outside of one off year but again, he didn't pitch last year.
Next guy up - Barraclough - We talked about him when the Nats made the trade. This role is probably one pitcher too close to the end for Kyle. Maybe someone else in the pen steps up. Then again maybe Doolittle or Rosenthal get hurt and Kyle is needed more.

Rest - Probably Glover, Miller, Grace, Suero and Solis? Glover was hurt and didn't look great. Miller was a revelation until he wasn't. Grace was... actually pretty good! I mean he's not dominant or anything but he filled that middle relief role admirably. Suero was fine. Solis was bad.

Other options - Cordero, Williams, Voth, McGowin. The Nats try to talk up guys like Cordero, who have stuff. They are never good. Voth has converted from starter to reliever and could be a long relief type, except he's not good. McGowin is just an arm.  That leaves Williams who they had high hopes for but didn't come through at all.  There may also be options in the minors, notably Austin Adams,  but consider them Cordero/Williams types. Old, might click, probably won't.

All in all there is definitely a spot here. Now if you ask me it's a top spot.  Getting a Kimbrel would set everything up in a way I see it for a championship team. But I doubt they are going to do that. So that means a checking of what else is still there. There's Tony Sipp who was quite good for the Astros last year. He was also quite lucky (no homers) and has a track record that bounces around a lot. Nick Vincent has been quality bullpen filler for a while now. Romo is intriguing as a guy who may be able to be stretched out a little. Diekman on the other hand is one of those pure talent guys who if he put it all together could be dominant but never has. Still he's enough together that unlike a Cordero or Williams he's useful. You know I love Clippard but he is just another arm, better than most, but that's a low bar. Xavier Cedeno, another former Nat, is an interesting arm. He found himself after leaving the Nats and then became an effective cutter thrower. His speed has dropped after injury but the effectiveness has remained. I feel like there is potential here.  Aaron Loup is also out there as another decent arm.

Any of these guys would improve the Nats pen allowing the Nats to stop "trying out" guys who need to show dominance in AAA first. A Tony Sipp trial or a bet on Xavier Cedeno (who could become a LOOGY type if the bet fails) would be the way I go. Whatever they choose though I see a move here being both possible and necessary.  Ideally it's Kimbrel after watching Bryce walk away, but if not, something else from here would be nice.


OH - they could definitely improve at SP. But I don't think they have any intention of even looking at that so it will be what it is. Three top guys, hope Sanchez works out at 4, see what happens at 5. There are definitely worse rotations than that - like 20+ of them. 

25 comments:

BxJaycobb said...

I would stay away from Kimbrel. I get he’s still real good, but that’s a 3+ year deal and he looks like he’s definitely post-peak with a possibility of rounding into mediocrity or injury in next 2 years. He was terrifyingly erratic in playoffs. Keuchel I would love and would slot into Nats really nicely, maybe a change of speed and arm between max and Stras. I actually really liked what I saw from Suero last year. I wonder if he’s a guy capable of taking the step from guy who is capable of pitching a late inning to guy who can be depended on in late innings.

Kubla said...

Is Gio seeking a huge deal? I understand that fans may think he's bad, but front offices have to look at the numbers and see a solid back of the rotation guy. I wouldn't mind the Nats bringing him back for a year or two as the fourth/fifth starter instead of digging through the clearance rack of negative WAR/out-of-baseball guys. The current depth — or lack thereof — makes me concerned for what will happen when Strasburg takes his 2-4 weeks of PTO.

Anonymous said...

Harper, you should use roster resource for depth charts: https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-washington-nationals

Harper said...

BX - problem is Suero is the defacto "long man" in the pen. I don't think he's going 4 but he's probably the guy you go to first to get 2+ innings in a pinch. If you make him focus on something more I'm not sure who scales up to take him place. (unless you bring someone in)

Kubla - not a huge deal but I bet he's looking for three years.

Anon - but that's not as pretty as MLB!

sirc said...

I wonder if the Miley deal kills Gio's expectations for a multi year contract. Mid 30s guys with velocity drops are out. Mid 30s guys with velocity drops BUT have developed a cutter are in.

Dear Gio,


Why haven't you been loading videos on social media working on a cutter? It might be that simple. It certainly couldn't hurt. There are probably some reputable cutter coaches in the world, too. Just pay one of them to spend an afternoon with you, and be sure to take some pictures.

Just a suggestion. Also don't sign with the Mets please and thank you.

blovy8 said...

Grace is probably the defacto long man, it's why I agree that they really need a loogy and to just cut bait on Solis. Sipp is probably the best option. I like Suero because his good cutter is a handy thing in a bullpen that will probably be full of fastball/sinker/slider guys.

An outside the box idea would be using Ross in the bullpen and limiting his post-TJ innings that way. It would expose him to lefties less and his stuff will play up. He may even become an option throughout the possible postseason instead of being shut down.

I think the Nats will absolutely need a guy in town who can back up short, so Iglesias isn't a bad notion, but not all that exciting. I doubt it would cost much and would help the depth having Difo in Fresno, but I'm thinking that Kieboom would get called up if there's a significant problem. Kendrick and Dozier can't hack short, but I'd like to see a little bit of 2019 Dozier before I write him of as a guy needing a defensive caddy like Murphy. I'm guessing the defensive replacement needs really won't be there provided Soto can be worked with in a spring training camp devoted to more fundamental instruction. I'm betting substitutions would be more about rest and safety with minor ills.

blovy8 said...

My worry is 3B if Rendon misses time. I don't care for Kendrick or Difo playing there an extended period, hell, they played Reynolds there last year! I suspect Kieboom could do it, but I bet he hasn't played a game there. It may be that the biggest key for the 2019 Nats will be Rendon, he's going to be asked to provide a lot.

blovy8 said...

Maybe Gio can call up Andy Pettitte to learn his cutter and while he's at it - his balk move - that would get rid of some runners.

DezoPenguin said...

I assumed that in a 7-man pen Suero would be in AAA since he's the only one of the bunch who can be stashed there. Then when/if Barraclough craps out, Glover gets hurt, or Miller turns back into a pumpkin, Suero comes up to replace that person. I absolutely second the notion of signing a LH reliever who can bounce Solis right into the DFA category. Most of our relievers are guys who come with risk, but Solis is just a poor pitcher: low risk, low reward. Kimbrel is an interesting suggestion because he would immediately give us a shutdown-grade LH pitcher by moving Doolittle out of the closer spot. Then Rosenthal and Doolittle could be deployed as the RH/LH back-end tandem to put out fires while Kimbrel works the 9th. Kimbrel does seem to be on the downslide and his playoff sample was scary as heck, and his price would likely be too much, but at the least he'd still improve the overall pen quality.

I think Difo starts the season with the team simply because he's the only guy who can reasonably back up Turner at SS. Kendrick, Rendon, and Dozier can't just move there. The only way they go with an 8-man pen, I think, is if Kendrick is hurt to start the season.

I really do wish that the Nats would address SP5, though. Ross is a question mark and Fedde isn't so much a question mark as he is an answer we know and don't like. Bringing back Hellickson in the hope he can repeat last year would be an upgrade, and also gives us Ross to plug in as SP6 if (when) we need one. Unfortunately, the only other viable options available in FA appear to be Keuchel (fine pitcher, particularly since he'd be our #4/5, but way too expensive), Gio (riskier than Hellickson, but capable of going deeper into games), and Buchholz (far, far too variable in terms of outcomes).

Anonymous said...

Is the Fresno Grizzlies association a temporary thing? Seems somewhat inconvenient having your AAA club on the opposite coast, no?

KO said...

@Anon - they agreed to a two year dear with the Grizzlies. Definitely lost out on the round table of triple A teams this year...

Anonymous said...

They should try to trade for the Richmond Flying Squirrels. Theyre affiliated with the SF Giants so a trade if they could figure out the leagues would be great for both. Though Im sure the giants dont care as much about where their double A team is

Kubla said...

I personally would have loved the Nats taking over Durham. Then I could see their guys every game instead of having to wait for Syracuse to come through (or now, never getting to see the once and future Nats). Sure, the Bulls just celebrated 20 years of Rays affiliation, but when have the Rays ever been serious about hanging onto any asset?

NotBobby said...

@Kubla

I'm a Durham resident also and love going to Bulls games. So sad that I won't be able to see future Nats at the local stadium. Still remember TT hitting a homerun over the bull and thinking that he was going to be amazing.

Jay said...

They can't move to Richmond bc it is not a AAA team I believe. Evidently that is a big deal from what I heard. Durham would be cool.

Zimmerman11 said...

They're gonna start the season with Taylor starting in CF and Robles in Las Vegas... so yeah I'm not thrilled with a Bryce-less outfield.

sirc said...

I have not read nor heard that from the Nats. If Robles is terrible in the Spring, perhaps. But there is no benefit to sticking Robles in the minors that I can see. The team control ship has nearly sailed due to nearly 2 months in the bigs.

He had nice plate discipline in winter ball. The only way I see Robles not being in the Nats opening day lineup is if they sign Bryce. Otherwise it's Robles, imo.

Ole PBN said...

An item of concern: Nearly every signing we've made this offseason is a gamble. Barraclough, Rosenthal, Corbin, Sanchez, Dozier all come with big question marks (some more expensive than others). They join the list of existing question marks: Will Stras stay healthy? Will Glover produce? Was Miller a fluke? Is Suero legit? Will Robles live up to the hype? Can Soto repeat? Will Eaton stay healthy? Will Kendrick be back in time, or be out until July? Did Martinez learn anything from last year?

I'm excited for the season, don't get me wrong, but there are A LOT of caveats to our roster. Looks almost ridiculous, to the point that Rizzo would have to hit on these signings at a ridiculous rate, while also hitting on the current guys, for this team to be successful.

Anonymous said...

You can do that with every major league roster...all have big question marks. The big "IF" is keeps the conversation going.

Anonymous said...

Lose the is...

Ole PBN said...

But with that many question marks? I don't think so. Only reliable pieces (to be good or bad) are Rendon, Trea, Max, and Doolittle. That seems pretty worrisome.

Anonymous said...

Check out the ? marks on the Mets, Yankees, Cubs, Cardinals, Dodgers. The entire Dodgers outfield, is Seeger back to form, is Kershaw going to pitch an entire season. I could do this for all those teams mentioned.

Ole PBN said...

Agree to disagree. Every team has question marks, yes. But of the 18 question marks on the Nats projected 25-man roster, the list includes EVERY member of the bullpen aside from Doolittle (one could even argue he should be in their due to injury history). That is a problem few have addressed.

Johnny Callison said...

Just saw on MLB Trade Rumors that Hellickson is in talks to come back. Definitely better than counting on Fedde/Ross but is he yet another "question mark" due to injury? I have had moments where I've thought, ah heck, bring back Gio and slot him #5 and leave him off the post-season roster but give him thanks for his 175 innings. I'd still take Gio, but Helly is an upgrade on what we've got at #5.

Helly, maybe Harper, and one reliable reliever and we are set. But for relievers...any left at this point? Seems like a lefty's come off the board every day for a week.

sirc said...

There was a great column from Bos in today's Post. Since he is often the subject of ridicule here (with merit) I thought I'd point out this example of work worthy of praise.

I also think it illustrates the value of this site and the service Harper provides us.