Hey it's a Monday quickie. I gots stuff to do.
Nats got swept by Philly and lost to Atlanta meaning they now need to over perform in 5 series to hit the magical 87 wins and we're rapidly running out of series left. There are only 16. Pretty soon we'll hit a point of no return if they keep not winning. Actually could happen before Labor Day! Not as if anyone really harbors any real thoughts about winning now. At 12 under, the Nats are at their lowest point since... well since last year, but if you disregard that like most of us do - at their lowest point since 2010.
Fun times happen though this week at the Mets, a team who is straight up dying - having being swept by Philly losing first place and losing second place, and the Nats can drive a stake through their heart. They should do that if they can. That'd be something for the fans.
Weekly Kid Update
Riley Adams debuted and hit a big time homer. Josiah Gray was good again. But let's see some NUMBERS
Past 7 days
- Kieboom : .308 / .379 / .577
- Luis Garcia : .222 / .250 /.519
- Riley Adams : .125 / .222 / .500
also
- Andrew Stevenson : .182 / .182 / .455
- Tres Barrera : .063 / .211 / .063
Sorry Yadi - you are like 39 years old. You don't get on this list. Also if you didn't know Adrian Sanchez is also old. Looks like everyone is swinging for the fences. Kieboom is hitting well. There's some evidence that the bad hitters aren't doing that poorly actually and it's bad luck but a week's info is pretty spotty with stuff like that. Basically means they aren't striking out too much. Like Parra. Oof that guy is toast. And pitching
- Gray : 10 IP, 8H, 4BB, 12K, 1.80 ERA
- Thompson : 2.2 IP, 4H, 1BB, 4K, 0.00 ERA
- Klobosits : 4IP, 4H, 1BB, 2K, 4.50 ERA
Everyone else is like over 28. Gray has pitched very well so far. Thompson might be getting lucky, Klobosits unlucky. We'll check in each Monday
17 comments:
If Garcia and Kieboom click and can both become at least slightly above average players, Rizzo's options this offseason become a lot clearer. I really hope they do. I have more confidence in Garcia (who raked in the minors this season) than in Kieboom, but there's not denying Kieboom has the higher ceiling if he gets past the mental issues
I think playing every day for a non-contender is exactly what Kieboom needs. Who knows what happens next season if they sign some guys and expect players to try a little with a lottery ticket roster, but progress is progress and it looks real so far.
@Harper -- I definitely understand your rationale for dropping Yadi, but I think it's important to mention that he's very likely to be a useful bench/depth piece on league minimum salary for the next couple years and that is actually pretty valuable to the tune of 5-10M in annual surplus value.
So his octogenarian status aside, I'd say he's as worthy of tracking as the others, aside from Gray, Garcia and Kieboom. (Those three are obviously much more important to the teams future success.)
Anon @9:20 - then I gotta track everyone! Sam Clay! Adrian Sanchez!
At the end of the year we'll go over all the roster. For now though it's mostly going to be 26 and under that I can see being 5 yr useful guys.
For NYM, it's been a Met-pocolypse. Still, the Phillies have always been the archrival, so I'd rather have the Mets or Braves win the division.
I'm quibbling, but shouldn't Robles be on this list. We kinda know who Yadi is, but I think the jury is still out on Robles.
The bigger concern for me is Robles, who is quickly turning into Danny Espinosa without the power
Kieboom was drafted out of high school in 2016. Perusing high school draftee careers in a kind of casual, non-systematic way (sorry, I'm no Harper), it seems to me it takes about 3 to 5 years to become a regular big leaguer. (This is assuming the player becomes a big league regular.)
Few high schoolers from that draft have yet to make a mark in the majors. Consider some of the position players picked that year:
Mickey Moniak, picked 1st overall, hasn't found his footing yet in Philadelphia and perhaps never will. Tampa picked Josh Lowe 13th, and Cleveland picked Will Benson 14th, and both teams are still waiting. Gavin Lux--the so-called untouchable in every Dodger trade discussion--was picked eight spots ahead of Kieboom has become infinitely touchable, and is probably the reason the Dodgers wanted Trea Turner.
(The best non-pitcher, high schooler picked that year? Bo Bichette, picked by Toronto in the 2nd Round--8 picks after the Nats chose Sheldon Neuse.)
So yes, the best thing for Kieboom is to play every day, and then figure it out from there.
Speaking of Trea Turner, there were stories all weekend about his eagerness, well before the trade deadline, to talk extension. He heard nothing--absolutely nothing--from Rizzo and the Nats.
You begin to wonder if you can ever believe a word Rizzo says, including "a" and "the."
From a purely GM perspective, as much as I love Turner, I can see why Rizzo may not have been wholeheartedly invested in signing Trea to an extension.
1. His greatest asset is his speed, which is going to drop off quite significantly by the end of a long contract.
2. If you have to choose between Soto and Turner, you choose Soto 999 times out of 1000. The 1 time you don't is if you think you have ANOTHER Ted Williams in the Dominican Republic that you've signed.
3. This offseason's market is saturated with top tier SS, so if you need to replace Turner, this is the offseason to do it, not next.
4. You likely won't be competitive in 2022 or even arguably 2023. Why buy out a year of Trea and then pay for another year in his prime when you don't think you can win?
At the end of the day, moving Trea is probably going to be one of Rizzo's best decisions (along with getting Trea to begin with for Souza of all players). It netted two top prospects, made payroll space for future signings, and the sheer number of SS on the market means odds are the Nats will hit on one of them. None of them are as good as Trea, but the end goal for a GM is to buy wins. Sinking all your payroll into a small group of players, in general, does not buy as many wins as spreading the wealth. So spread the wealth Rizz
Not the point, CP. Rizzo says he made an offer, Trea says he didn't.
in the 10 games before July 21, Tres Barrera had a babip of .429.
Since then, it's been .229, and overall, it's 308. Given his catcher's speed, you can probably expect him to have a babip around 290, so he'll probably come down a few more points in offensive production. Still, that's solid backup-catcher material.
Looks like a find to me.
Forgive me, I'm salty and yappy today.
But Barrera, Raudy Read (both previously suspended for PED use) and Jakson Reetz may be why the Nats acquired 3 minor league catchers at the trade deadline.
The catchers they got should handle the position just fine for quite some time. J Grey looks like a solid guy. And an okay pen arm. I think the Turner trade worked out pretty good on paper. I don’t think Max alone would’ve netted them either of those top prospects. The catcher grades out as an above average player at a premium position. Good deal.
As for turner’s extension, I’m pretty sure it was reported that they made the offer the previous off season and then basically said “offer still stands.” They offered something I’m sure at some point. Trea said no thanks at some point. All the rest is just chatter basically. They probably shot a spitball offer through his agent, trea says no, rizzo shrugs his shoulders and walks away from the table. It sounds like there were never any hard negotiations from either side.
On Corbin:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2021/08/09/patrick-corbin-struggles-world-series/
I think it's still possible that Corbin turns it around. Maybe not this year, and not to 2019-level effectiveness, but I think he could still have a bounce-back year before his contract is up.
On Trea, it looks like Rizzo/ownership didn't want to pay megabucks, Trea wanted megabucks or nothing, nobody budged off their positions, and now both sides want to spin things so Rizzo doesn't look cheap (after shipping out a star player, especially after not resigning Bryce or Rendon) and Trea doesn't look greedy (when he's due to enter the FA market in a year and being perceived as a "I want the cold, hard, cash!" guy will perhaps paradoxically cost him some of that cash) when the truth is that everybody's position is perfectly reasonable given that Trea has played like a top-tier SS these past two seasons but Cautiously's points above are perfectly valid plus Trea is not going to be a FA until the post-2022 offseason. (Had Trea been a FA on the market after the 2019 season, then yeah, 6/$100 would have been kind of insulting, but he wasn't a FA.) This is strictly the business of baseball, and Rizzo extracted the maximum possible value for the Nats out of the situation while if Trea keeps to this standard of play he will sign a huge contract in FA after 2022 for which he'll probably be overpaid for the last 2-3 years, and both sides will be happy with the outcome if they set aside their egos and the PR game.
Honestly, I'd like to see Yadi included in the "kids" list because there's a chance that if he plays up to the role the team might just let him have the LF job instead of signing a Schwarber type. (A more reasonable positive outcome is "he plays well enough to be the 1B/LF/PH guy off the bench--the Clint Robinson role--with basic competence at a cheap cost," of course.) Victor, too; Stevenson is pretty firmly established as a AAAA guy/OF5 at this point (truthfully, I'd like to see Lane Thomas out in Stevenson or Parra's place just because he's had three tiny samples and one of them was good, so an extended bite at the apple might be useful to see if he can be anything other than another Stevenson), and if Robles isn't going to be the guy in CF going forward then it's another thing the FO needs to think about.
Based upon two respectably successful five-inning starts, I am now fully on the bandwagon that Gray will hit the the ceiling for his projections and become Jordan Zimmerman going forward because that is obviously the most rational conclusion. ;) (All joking aside, it's nice to see him playing well.)
ZNN does seem like a decent aspiration for Gray. If he keeps up the pace and Ruiz pans out trading Trea early will be less painful. Yadi’s a great story and I’m rooting for him but he more or less seems similar to Stevenson as an OF4-5 type who could probably fill in as a late 1B when you need him to pinch hit.
Love that they can still play spoiler while developing youth for the remainder of the season in this cluster of a division.
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