Monday Quickie - Kie-Bust

Carter Kieboom is done. 

Ok, that's hyperbole.  He's not done for his career, or the season, or even April maybe. But he is hurt and that means he won't start Opening Day. He might not have anyway but now it's sure.

Technically the Nats have a boatload of guys in camp that could replace him. Adrianza, Urena, Fox, Hernandez, Strange-Gordon, Sanchez, Franco, Noll, Cluff, Young... but they are only seriously considering Maikel Franco, Ehire Adrianza, and maybe Richard Ureña.  Personally I feel Hernandez makes more sense, with Garcia everyday at 2B, but the plan seems to be Hernandez at 2B, Escobar at SS, Kieboom at 3B, Garcia in AAA until he seems more ready. 

Kieboom himself.. man what happened? 

He was a low first round draft pick in 2016 (some, like me, believed the Nats wanted him so much they took his brother to sweeten the signing pot).  His progression seemed to be going great. 

2016 :  18 : Decent stats with nice power in Rookie League

2017 : 19 :  Was hitting great for Hagerstown and looked to be a shoe-in for High A Potomac, but hurt his hammy and had to finish the season rehabbing through the low minors back to A ball

2018 : 20 : Brought up to High A anyway, hit great there, and decent in AA really his first real struggle as he wasn't hitting for the power he had. Still 20 in AA holding your own is great so the Nats...

2019 : 21 : ... moved him the AAA anyway and he thrived. He got a brief call-up in the majors and looked overwhelmed - he'd hit .128 in 43 PA and strike out a crazy 16 times.  But he was 21!  The Nats took him off the table for trades (rumors abounded but nothing clearly specific) He did seem to wear down a bit at the end of the year in AAA - the power kind of went again, but 2020 was going to be his year to shine. Rendon would leave and he'd step in, not unlike Soto steppin in for Bryce.

2020 : 22 : Pandemic year kept him from playing until July but he got his chance and unlike every other time he failed. Miserably. Not only did he not hit (.202 / .344 / .212), but he looked bad across the board, like he didn't know what he was doing on the field, on the basepaths.  He didn't look like a guy struggling, he looked like he didn't belong at all.  The Nats sort of floated the idea that they'd listen to offers but that year was so bad and the turn around for the Nats from "UNTOUCHABLE" to "make us an offer" so quick, no one bit with anything good.

2021 : 23 : New year fresh start! The Nats would start him back in AAA, let him get his legs under him then get him back up. But the plan didn't work.  He scuffled for two months in AAA playing mediocre ball. They called him up around the trade deadline but again - nothing came of it and despite an immediate fast start (11 hits and 2 homers in his first 11 games) he'd end up much like 2021, maybe not as bad in the field but not close to a major leaguer

What to do now?  He's not old (24 pretty much all year) and he's not expensive (aribtration a couple years away, FA after 2027) so they can hang onto him. And given that he's getting almost zero interest they might have no choice. He needs to play. If he does well then the Nats have a difficult decision - do they trust the development through AAA and what they see to double down on him as a 2023-2026 cheap starter? Even if he's average it's worth it. Or do they trade him while they can, getting something out of a guy who has spent basically every moment of the past 3 years when in the majors looking like he should be anywhere else?  Development matters but everyone has a ceiling and part of the game is finding it.

It'd honestly be easier if he failed. Package him up for whatever and let someone else try to fix him. It probably isn't going to work here. You might even get a lottery ticket back given Kieboom has a lot of control left. 

For now it doesn't matter because he won't play right away. But he will and when he does if he can do well the Nats will face a tough call.