Last year the Nats sold. They traded Max and Trea and a handful of other players with the hopes of fortifying this team a bit for the future. While these things are judged over time frames of more like 3-5 years it doesn't hurt to see if for the three months the Nats had these guys (2 last year, 1 this) to see if anything is going surprisingly well or terribly terrible.
Aldo Ramirez (Schwarber) - SP - Nats put him in Rookie ball and he broke. Elbow stuff. Still hasn't seen the field this year
Riley Adams (Hand) - C - In the majors as a back-up C for some reason where he barely plays and hasn't been good, but I mean let him hit everyday somewhere.
Richard Gausch (Gomes/Harrison) - SP - Wasn't particularly good in A+ last year but moved to AA anyway, and... nope. He's probably at the "ok try him as a reliever now" phase of his career.
Drew Millas (Gomes/Harrison) - C - the slap-hitting, high-contact, low-power guy did ok in A+ but has an intercostal strain and hasn't played this year.
Seth Shuman (Gomes/Harrison) - SP - was pretty bad in A+ so didn't cross whatever threshold Gauch did and he is still there. Nothing exciting this year so far.
Gerardo Carillo (Scherzer/Turner) - bad in AA, so stuck there but the Nats did transition him to a reliever. It has not worked out so far.
Donovan Casey (Scherzer/Turner) - OF - Donny K-See finished well for the Nats last year in AA and struck out a lot less. That has not been the case this year in AAA. But the man does swing a heavy bat.
Josiah Gray / Keibert Ruiz (Scherzer/Turner) - you know these guys. Both are doing ok, not great.
Lane Thomas (Lester) - playing regularly in the majors he looks like he shouldn't be
Mason Thompson (Hudson) - Also in majors and had a couple bad outings before getting hurt.
Jordy Barley (Hudson) - bad in A ball, moved up to A+ where he's just been terrible. He's been a "if he gets it" guy and it looks like that isn't happening.
It's too early to say anything definitively here we'll circle back say... June? If you want some vague early takes there is nothing surprisingly good happening. Barley looks very questionable as a player and Gausch as a starting pitcher. But given the numbers brought in two failures in 12 players right away doesn't seem crazy.
9 comments:
I'm very interested in this exercise for July and at the end of the season
That's pretty harsh, Harper.
I get that you're looking relative to expectations as of the trade, so I'm fine with Gray and Ruiz being "OK, not great" even though they both look like they're going to stick as starters -- which is a pretty good result for any prospect.
But on Casey and Adams, you really have to work to frame it as negatively as you do.
Since the trade, Adams has had 103 PAs with Nats and he's hit to a 133 wRC+. Sure, his 13 PAs this year have stunk (and I 100% agree with you that the move is to put him in AAA, play him every day and hope he has a hot streak so you can flip him), but you're nuts if you don't think those are surprisingly good results so far.
And Casey of the "high strikeout rate but heavy bat" - yes, he struggled when promoted to AAA last year, but he has done very well this year (162 wRC+!, including reducing his k% from 38% to 30%). Small sample, and that's still too many Ks - I'm not claiming the team should call him up or he's destined to be a star or anything - but that's a legit upside surprise. (It's also looks like development and not just a fluke because it's supported by his AA success last year.)
I think the fairer overall take would be - 2 instant failures, 2 upside surprises, a couple of injuries. It's still early days, and most of these players will never end up in the majors, but it's not all gloom and doom. We got the value that we expected.
@Harper -- terrific research and summary. Thanks.
@Anonymous -- excellent follow-up with a different perspective and some additional data. Thanks!
Note: seems like the Nats have a lot of fair weather friends. Probably the same for most teams. Where are all the commenters from past years when the Nats were a good team? I suppose with such a bad team there's not much reason to be second-guessing the manager, who typically has no good choices available to him.
@potomacFan
Being a fan of a rebuilding team is (fortunately) unfamiliar for Nats fans. Are we supposed to comment on new food concessions? I definitely don't want to comment on one-sided losses to the Diamondbacks.
I guess the real answer is that we should be talking player development, but with a farm currently ranked 23 out of 30 by Fangraphs and a chance at one or two prospects in the top 100 this year... The weather sure doesn't seem fair. One upside is that this fanbase will become very experienced with rebuilding before this team is competitive, especially with the Lerner's pursuing a sale.
They don't call such players "minor league filler" for nothing.
The one trade of merit was Scherzer --- a front line starter that could carry a team through the playoffs --- and T Turner --- a two year first string shortstop. And we got back players that are less likely to have the same short-term value but are under team control. After this year, the Dodgers will have got all of the possible value from the trade, the Nats benefit for six years.
All of the other trades were just lottery tickets. Inventory. Bodies exchanged for two month rentals of pieces that could help a team on a playoff run. Of the non-Scherzer-Turner transactions, we'll be lucky to get ONE that sticks.
It does make one appreciate how extremely lucky we were to pick up Soto. Tooth fairy needs to bring another gift under the pillow, preferably a pitcher. Who was the scout that found Soto?
Anon - I think "2 instant failures, 2 upside surprises, a couple of injuries" might be fair. However I wouldn't say Adams and Casey, but Adams and Thomas. For these guys I didn't much consider last year and last year is why they are in the majors now. Very good 35+ game stretches in the majors that turned "AAA, AAAA, or ML" to "let's try ML"
Casey had only 12 games last year in AA in his good stretch. Fall league ended up as mixed and AAA now he's trying to get it right. Only 7 games in you see the good (6XBH in 8 hits) and the bad 9 Ks in 29 PAs. The latter is a pretty clear indication of not being able to hang in the majors and at his age (26 between Adams and Thomas in age) there isn't too much time to get it right. He's probably the brightest of the rest but I can't call it a upside surprise. A AAAA type who might slug a few homers in the ML but would strike out too much to stick is what he was seen as and what I'd say he's STILL seen as.
Potomac Fan - all fanbases are going to be more interested in good teams than bad ones. Nats might just not have as deep a fanbase still to hide it.
billyhacker - I'm not a guy that can do minor leagues constantly so I'll talk more about the failures of whats' going on and occasionally check in with development. Right now it'll probably be more about Ruiz and Gray as they seem to be the most important guys for the future. And waiting on Stras.
ND - that's a pretty fair assessment. The Nats turned Max and Trea into two very likely major leaguers. They couldn't get two sure stars, because you don't trade those, but you did get likely decent players with a chance at something more right now. The rest was a mix of guys who might pan out but probably won't. But at 10 other players really 1-2 decent multi-year MLs would be great. Anything more than that (more players than 2 or better players than decent) would be great.
I don't understand the lukewarm take on Keibert Ruiz. He looks to me like a young Yadier Molina: low K%, plus defense (that clown car of a rundown notwithstanding). Most of his outs are lazy fly balls which means he's not far off in his approach from hitting more bombs (he also started this way last year before hitting better in September). I'd be surprised if he's not a 3+ WAR player for years to come.
They should absolutely swap Tres Barrera and Riley Adams and then use Barrera on off days instead of vs LHP like they're doing with Adams. Right now Ruiz is basically a LHB unless he faces a lefty reliever (37 PA batting lefty vs 10 PA batting righty).
Note: I'm not saying Ruiz is a future HOFer, I am saying Yadi didn't become YADI until his age 25 season, and their early profiles are similar - Keibert is still 23!
In the end I have to think the Nats will win the Scherzer/Turner trade. Gray and Ruiz will almost definitely never be as good as Scherzer/Turner, but overall value I think 13 combined years of control for the two of them is better than 1.5 years combined of Scherzer/Turner, especially given LAD didn't win the WS last year.
As for the other trades, I think the Hand/Lester/Hudson trades will be winners and the Schwarber/Gomes/Harrison trades will be washes (not that we expected much to begin with there).
So overall, while no 5 WAR players are likely in the mix (maybe Ruiz or Gray if you squint), I think the Nats trades are looking pretty solid given most of the players given up were essentially rentals
I think the Nats are gonna show us some real old fashioned losing now!
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