About now is usually when I would go through the predictions on line and tell you how many like the Nats for a division title or a WS appearance. I don't think that's necessary. Yesterday I put the team at 69 wins and the word on the street is everyone feels about the same. This is not a playoff contending team. The left side of the IF being Maikel Franco and Alcides Escobar should have told you.
But what about the rest of the NL East? Where does the Nats 69 fit in? Worst in the division? Or do they sneak into 4th?
Braves / Mets / Phillies
Each of these teams made major moves and how they finish is up in the air.
The defending champs Braves are still without Acuna (until later in April) and lost their heart and soul in Freddie Freeman. Free swinging temporary power threat Jorge Soler also moved on. But Freeman was replaced by almost as good Olson and Acuna should bounce back and play more than last season (82 games). Chances are the offense stays pretty stable. The pitching staff is pretty much as is. The bullpen with dominant set-up man Luke Jackson out at least half the season, has added dominant closer Kenley Jackson. All in all expect a similar result to last year except not unlucky. 90-95ish wins.
The Mets made the splashiest moves adding Max and Chris Bassitt to their rotation. deGrom is out for at least a couple months, but he missed half of last year so it's a push if he comes back as dominant. Stroman is gone and had a very nice year but expectations would be for Max to at least match that. Bassitt is better than the other guys who ended up starting. It's at least better even with deGrom hurt. If Carrasco is any good it could be dominant. The bullpen lost the surprisingly dominant Loup to FA. They brought in a couple of arms to replace him but that's a season that doesn't get replicated. It's a push there at best. At the plate Villar is replaced by Eduardo Escobar, maybe a slight improvement and Conforto is out for Cahna, who isn't much better production wise but gives the impatient Mets a guy who will take a walk. The big move is Marte coming in who will bump up production. This may get undone though by a questionable DH pairing of Cano and Dom Smith. Maybe these guys too old to be in the field become great DHs. Maybe these guys who look meh at the plate at best stay that way. The key to this team getting a lot better was deGrom and Max for 40% of the starts. With deGrom hurt the improvement here is minimal - more like a 500+ team. But like a flipside Nats I think they have a lot better chance to be much better than much worse. These bats could have some very good years and if a few line up, watch out. Like a 79-93 range but the average being around 83.
The Phillies couldn't fix their main problem - a middling rotation and pen with no reliable arms - so they doubled down on what was their strength - a solid offense. Out is great but aging Cutch. In is the AS type Nick Castellanos. In is last year's hotness Kyle Schwarber. That's a lot of Ks but also they could have 4 guys hit 30 homers. Plus Didi and Segura are contact guys to average things out. The offense should be up at the top of the league fighting for 2nd behind the Dodgers. The rotation is better than last year - if only because last year was relying on a 4 and 5 that probably shouldn't have been in the league. Gibson is solid. Suarez... who knows but it'll be hard to be worse than Velasquez/Moore. The pen brought in Familia, Hand, and Knebel who are all "could be good, could be bad" guys. It doesn't set up for major improvement although that's possible. The Phillies should be better by a few games. Something like 84/85 maybe better if Nola is really good or the bullpen clicks (but probably not)
The Marlins? They are all about young player improvement. Can the rotation mature even more? If so they could have a dominant Top 3 and maybe a 1-5 that challenges for best in the league. If that's the case they could compete. If not, the bullpen was surprisingly good last year. With no big moves it's hard to see it get any better. Their big issue was scoring runs and they did add Avisail Garcia and Jorge Soler but they replace the very good Marte and decent Duvall/Dickerson mix. That's not a big jump Wendle is in, the underrated Anderson is out. It's an improvement but again not much. The offense is likely to struggles unless the young guys, Chisolm, Sanchez, really break out. A better team with maybe real movement to like 77/78 wins but they need that star bat to make that next move.
This would put the NL East in my mind at
ATL 93
PHI 85
NYM 83
MIA 77
WSH 69
I think ATL, MIA and WSH are pretty set (it's sports. very little is certain) Mets/Phillies could easily flip flop.
5 comments:
This season looks pretty lost, but is there anything that could be done to salvage the rest of Soto's time with the team?
If not — I was too late with my last comment on this topic a few posts ago — is there a possibility of trading Juan in order to bring enough players back to build a team he'd be willing to rejoin as a FA? Does stuff like that ever happen, or do players/agents tend to get bitter enough about the moves that they won't come back to the team that dealt them?
For once, your predictions have left your followers almost--hey there, Anonymous--commentless.
I would hate to see a Soto trade. I kinda feel like, if the Nats can’t be good with a generational talent, then what do they need in order to be good. In my mind, reload minors this year, everyone but Soto is up for grabs. Give Soto a stupid big contract, and then spend money like you stole it for the next 10 years. Who cares? It’s not my money, it’s a rich person’s money. Open the checkbook.
I agree with it being Atlanta in first by the end of the year. But I think that Philly will end ahead of the Mets, and in a wild card position. Philly is going to score a lot of runs. The Mets, I just don't see them being a sustainable success. I'm biased against the Mets I think. I assume that they will find every pothole on their road.
I don't understand what the Nats are doing. Tonight they cut Gabe Klobosits. Now, it isn't like he's some hot prospect but he's a real live human pitcher under the age of 30 who had some success in the minors. To just release him when there is such a shortage of such people both within the team and across the league seems so odd to me. I don't know what they're doing.
I would appreciate some clarity.
Anon - Does it happen? It can. The Yanks traded Chapman to the Cubs and he resigned. Though he wasn't a life long Yankee at the time. They had just gotten him from the Reds. But it's unusual and you'd expect a guy like Soto to be traded for a team that is going to make him a huge offer to stay before he hits FA. So either he takes that (no Nats) or he goes to FA because he thinks there is a HUGER offer out there (likely not the Nats either). I just don't see that happening. They'll have to wow him in house. I don't think it's bitterness per se. I think though there is a "this is the only team I know" feeling which helps with negotiations which is broken by a trade. You are telling the player this is just business and the player can't help but say "Ok same for me I guess"
I'll also say teams are so stingy on prospects that it'll be hard to get enough players to be sure of a rebuild. Though Soto is SOTO and you'd be giving them two years so maybe? Tampa definitely is in spot to do that but aren't the type to want to sign Soto. SF or LA maybe? I've always thought MIA might be an interesting partner. Just loaded with arms. But if you want to go AL you are probably out of luck for a 2-3 Top prospect rebuild. It'll have to be a quantity grab.
Sirc - well it's about opening spots in the 40 man for people and Gabe - probably nothing guy - is an easy call to possibly lose. Now why they are doing that for Franco and Strange-Gordon instead of playing kids? I've said I think they are hoping they can turn these guys into lotto tickets and if they get 5 lotto tickets this year one works out?
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