Nats game pushed back to 7:00 to avoid the rain. Tickets still available to see Juan Soto and and the Sotettes.
The Nats stink.
That's just a fact.
- Their best starter has a bad shoulder which is usually very bad news, and won't pitch until probably Memorial Day.
- Their Opening Day pitcher might have been the worst full season starter last year.
- Their #2 gives up homers at a prodigious rate, 19 in about a third of a season last year.
- Their #3 is a guy they had high hopes for years ago who sticks around now because there is no one better.
- Their #4 threw to a 6.62 ERA in 2020 and didn't pitch in the majors last year.
- Their starting SS hit to a 67 OPS+ (.257 / .284! / .337!) over his last four years before being driven out of the game. That was in 2018. He was once a plus defender but is 35 and decidedly not anymore.
- Their starting 3B hit .210 / .253 / .355 last year and was released by the worst team in baseball.
- Their starting CF has hit .209 / .304 / .302!!! over the past two seasons and was demoted in part because of a bad attitude.
- Their bullpen features guys that pitched to ERAs of 4.53 (Doolittle) 5.30 (Murphy) 5.34 (Voth) and 7.39 (Rainey). The guys that managed to pitch to better ERAs probably didn't deserve them with FIPs of 4.46 (Espino) 4.52 (Finnegan) and 4.63 (Machado).
- Their 5th starter is just a random young 5th starter on a bad team. Their 2B is just an average 2B on a bad team. Their LF is just an average young 3rd/4th OF on a bad team.
What does this leave that feels both secure and good? A decent 1B in a league lousy with decent 1B. A very good DH. A solid though unspectacular closer. A very good C prospect. Probably the best hitter of his generation still only 23. This is the thin line between bad and OMG they are winning 50 games terrible.
Of course we know this. This isn't what was agreed to but it was always a possibility if players didn't develop into stars (Kieboom), if injuries happened (Strasburg), if a long term FA contract finally didn't work (Corbin). This set up a team that couldn't be saved by holding onto a player or two. So instead they went and we're left with... this.
What is there to look forward to then?
- Juan Soto's quest for an MVP. He's likely the best hitter in the game. So good that he can win the MVP without being anything more than a ok baserunner and not embarrassing fielder. So good he can win the MVP for a terrible team. He's 23. He's peaking. This time has come.
- How Keibert Ruiz develops. He's also 23. He makes insane contact with about 180 Ks in the equivalent of 3 150 game seasons in the minors. If he can just hit for average he'll be a solid starter. If he can develop patience or power or a little of both he could be a star.
- Just watch Cruz homer. It's fun. Hopefully this won't be the year he ages.
What about things to maybe not enjoy but to watch for?
- Are Strasburg/Corbin are ok. They don't have to both be great,
though that would be nice. One though has to be good, the other... let's just say mid-rotation usable. The Nats might have cash to add another pitcher to keep Soto happy. Stras and Corbin filling in two spots from 2 to 4 in the rotation and feeling good for a few years is vital. If neither look good... let's just not think about that.
- Josiah Gray. Rushed up to AAA and the majors it's hard to figure what to make of him. His limits do seem to suggest he's both not an ace but definitely a major league pitcher of some sort. Where he falls from 2 to in-and-out 5th will make a big difference for the Nats.
- Lane Thomas. Is he something? Probably nothing more than a 4th. But STL is lousy with OF and Thomas did ok in minors and is not old so kick the tires. He seemed more like a 3rd OF with the Nats last year. Maybe you get that for a few years allowing the Nats to put some money elsewhere in the "rebuild to keep Soto" future.
- Victor Robles bounces back. Speaking to that effect. Robles was a top notch defender who hit well enough to start. The hope was he'd hit slightly better and the Nats would have a plus player. That didn't happen. He hit worse. If he just gets back to where he was - again the Nats have a decent starter and can put money somewhere else for a couple years.
- Luis Garcia. The guy should be up in the majors but isn't. A little overwhelmed playing for the Nats last year he raked in AAA. But it was less than 40 games, so we need to see him do it again. That would show you're at least a starter in the majors for 2023.
In the minors
- Cavalli, Rutledge, Henry. All look like they'll be ready for some major league time over the next two years. Can someone take a step up to look like a potential top of the rotation guy? How many will look like good rotation starters - like better than Fedde/Ross looked?
- House development. SS of the future? 3B of the future? The future is coming quick for a team looking to keep Soto here beyond 2024 so the faster you can develop the better.
- Who do the Nats draft with their high pick?
The Nats have a ton of holes and question marks looking to that key year of 2024. All the infield, 2/3rd the OF, the entire rotation. What they desperately need isn't minor league development in all those places or good play this year. What they need are answers. Enough answers for 2024 that they can figure out solutions for the remaining questions. They need a rotation to come together that looks at least 3 deep from 1-4. (Finding 5 is a perennial issue for every team) They need and OF and a couple IFs to look decent so they know what they need to target - corner OF or CF? SS or 3B? They need to come out of this year with a good idea on where the money will go before 2023 and 2024 to keep Juan Soto here. Because keeping Juan Soto is ultimately THE answer for being competitive in the near future
7 comments:
What are the odds that Soto stays past his current contract?
Yeah, this is going to be a hard one. Ultimately, the result we want to see is that *some* of the long-term assets (be they young or Strasburg) plays well and the Nats can check some items off the list. It's a lot easier to find one ace and maybe #5 guy to a rotation that has a handful of solid #2-3s. Thomas playing good LF defense and below-average CF defense with a 115 wRC+ is a useful player in anybody's OF rotation. Ruiz being what he's projected to be is a potential cornerstone player. Some of the hard-throwing reliever kids being able to throw the ball where it's actually supposed to go instead of being the baseball equivalent of spray-n-pray. Garcia being a serviceable young middle infielder. Robles returning to 2019 form. Something that says "we have the basis for a major-league roster if we make some key additions" instead of "this team is Juan Soto and nothing, and we're better off trading him for the maximum haul now because we have nothing else to offer."
Great article. Grim, bleak, completely void of hope, but essentially accurate.
If one accepts this portrayal, the next question has to be: "Will Soto stay?". With his agent and the team's bleak state, one has to guess "No". He goes to a big market, big pay-off contender.
And if that's true, how do we get the best value out of Soto? Two more years of entertaining baseball, an MVP award? Perhaps. Can't see much winning.
Or should Rizzo just complete the selloff, maximize value of assets, do a Billy Beane? Package Strasburg and Soto together, make the buyer cover SS's contract AND collect a set of top MLB-ready prospects to move the rebuild forward by a year?
GCX - ask me again at the end of the season. Right now I'd just give a generic 50/50
Dezo - really that is what this season is - the season that answers the question whether Juan Soto will be here or not. You could drag it out another year but Soto for 2 bring you a much better haul than rent a Soto.
On the scale of Soto's prime (ie the next 10 or 12 years), the Nationals are a "big market, big pay-off contender." At least, god I hope so. There's a chance the Lerners keep the payroll at $120M forever, pocket the profits and never try to compete again. The old man has his ring; time for a new hobby. Maybe.
But if it's not that, then there is no reason they aren't a long term contender. Not this year and probably not next year, but that's nothing over a 12 or 15 year deal.
Everyone wants to compete, but it's red herring. The way to sign Soto is to pay him the most money. I'll allow for a risk-adjustment to have an extension land around the 35th percentile of likely FA outcomes, but until Soto turns down $450M+, there is just no reason to talk about other factors.
So that's my ask for the Lerners -- offer Soto at least $450M/15. If he won't even counter that, well, then the windows don't really line up, and maybe we should start thinking about trading him. I'd still probably rather watch him play every day, but I can see the logic.
Bold predictions + some regular observations:
Bullpen is one of the top 10 in baseball until the trade deadline. Doolittle, maybe Clippard, enjoy bounceback years, Finnegan and some of the younger guys show progression and promise. But they start with so many 3-4 run holes that it's for nought and Doolittle and Harris (if he ever pitches again) are traded for lottery tickets.
Espino's magic pixie dust wears off and Ross replaces him in the rotation, Gray ends up looking more like a future reliever than a #2 starter, Corbin bounces back to being a #3 type instead of one of the worst contracts in baseball, Strasburg comes back at a #2 level, and Adon surprises as a useful poor man's Livan Hernandez-type.
The heart of the offense clicks (on a relative scale) but Cruz and/or Soto spend time on the IL and the team finishes with somewhere in the low-to-mid 60s in terms of wins.
Also Garcia should start this season, no one's trading much of value for Escobar and I'd rather see him fill in at 3rd until Kieboom's healthy while letting Garcia figure out the majors.
This is the worst team since the '09 season and unless they find some rays of hope I'm worried it's Soto's last season here.
Oh, and it's DEFINITELY Josh Bell's last season with the team as long as his batting doesn't fall off a cliff. Hoping he starts hot so they can maybe turn him into a ML-ready prospect (also seems like a nice dude). But that probably won't happen.
Oddly relieved that I can probably tune this season out. So much more time for hobbies!
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