Fancy fancy stats

Many players in the Nats offense are not doing as well as we thought they might. Ruiz can't seem to get those balls in play to go through enough. Hernandez is having a rough start. Lane Thomas and Robles are fighting to be out of the lineup. Cruz looks like he's aging every time up. Escobar looks dead. Even Soto isn't SOTO - though he's still hitting with power and walking a ton. 

Which of this is real and which is illusion? Well we'll look at some fancy stats and see what we can parse out. 

K-Rate (If you're K-rate is too high - not much can be done. You aren't hitting the ball)

Lane Thomas (35.6%) Victor Robles (30.6%) and Escobar (27.4%) have K numbers too out of whack.  Maybe you let Escobar's go for a pure power hitter but guess what... Alcides ain't that. 

Ruiz (9.3%) and Soto (14.9%) are not missing pitches

Riley Adams is the worst at 42.1% but not getting regular ABs I give him a pass and not bring him up again.

BABIP (hitting the ball where they ain't is hard Wee Willie) 

Yadi (.375) Bell (.353) and Franco (.333) are probably getting a bit lucky. That's to be expected for the unusually hot Yadi and Bell. For Franco that's troubling

Escobar (.175) Cruz (.185) Robles (.214) and maybe Soto (.269) are getting unlucky... maybe. We do have to see HOW they are hitting it. Hard LDs? This is very unlukcy. Soft GBs and FBs? Completely understandable

LD-Rate/GB-Rate/FB-Rate (the injured Ryan Zimmerman rule - it doesn't matter how hard you hit the ball that first lands 3 feet in front of home plate)

Robles (28%) Escobar (25%) Bell (24.5%) Yadi (24.2%) and Cesar (24.2%) are in good spots for LD. Cruz (17.9%) Thomas (14.7%) and Soto (14.5%) are not. 

Where LD-rate is easy (more is better) GB-rate and FB-rate is harder to gauge and is more "off your usual". For GB-Rate Robles (60%) that's too much. Cruz (50%) is much higher than his normal For FB-rate Escobar (42.5%) shouldn't be hitting that many in the air and in contrast Cruz (32%) probably needs to hit MORE in the air.

HR/FB (Hitting it over the short porch or into Death Valley evens out in the end but not in April). 

Cruz (11.1%) is probably low for him - again gotta see how hard they are hitting. In aggregate all the guys at 0% are unlucky but individually none of them are homer hitters. 

Hard%, Avg EV (Ok so how hard) 

Escobar (5%!!! 79MPH!!!) is literally the weakest hitter in the league.  He's hitting LDs but they are like thrown balls.  Hernandez has mixed numbers (31.9% 84MPH) which might suggest killing some pitches and getting completely fooled on others. Would need a deeper dive. Thomas (29.4%) and Soto (25.5%) are hitting far too much soft.*

Franco isn't hitting anything soft (12.5% Soft% 90MPH)

Other stuff - Barrells (basically where the stats say "oh that should be a hit") and launch angle. I'll just make this relative.

Yadi leads the team in Barrell % and Soto and Cruz isn't far behind but they aren't close to the top of the league. Escobar is near the bottom while  Cesar, Thomas, Robles, and Ruiz and Bell? aren't far behind.  All in the bottom 25% 

Soto is hitting the ball a little too low by launch angle, but so is Yadi so I don't know. It's basically Soto's LA every year.  Escobar is hitting it up too far as we saw with FB-Rate.

CONCLUSIONS

Escobar is hitting like trash and it's no accident. The guy is hitting weak FBs and weak LDs when to be successful he needs to be a hard GB hitter. He's not getting unlucky then. Combined with the strikeouts this guy is just not a major league player

Ruiz and Soto seem more like guys just needing to dial in where they need to be.  Soto needs to hit the ball harder, but it may be hard getting pitched around constantly. Ruiz probably needs a bit fewer FBs. But this is could also be vagaries of early stats. 

Thomas is hitting the ball worse than Robles, even if he's eeked out a hit or two more. Robles should be starting even though if things even out he's still probably well under average given those Ks. 

Yadi is getting lucky but is also hitting the ball pretty well. Bell is getting lucky and may not be. Bell will be interesting to see how it progresses as they stop pitching around him as the only other name hot hitter on the team.

Franco is probably about where he should be. If he can step it up a bit that makes him a decent trade guy. If he regresses a bit then he's not.  Given his history the latter is more likely but that's the gamble you took.

Cruz  needs to hit more FBs. It's pretty simple. That's how he hits it well and that's what he's here for.

I'm unclear about Hernandez.

Soto's Soft % the past three years - 12.5%, 15.1%, 15.9%.