The Nats had a weekend that you should come to expect. They lost more than they won and didn't look particularly good doing it. The win helped keep them from being the worst team in the league right now but the future doesn't look bright.
This time of year is always the toughest. Unlike Spring, which can be ignored, theses stats matter. But because they are the only stats we have they have an outsized influence on our perceptions. We say this every year but will repeat. Wait until Memorial Day. That's tough. I won't always follow it myself, but let's try do it. Waiting until Memorial Day gave us the first sense that Josh Bell might be ok for example.
What to make of stats until then? Impressions like a Monet canvas. Wait... yes he was an Impressionist. Listen, art isn't my strong suit.
What impressions do we have so far?
Keibert Ruiz looks good. A lot of contact with lower K numbers. He's hit it hard. He's also thrown out a guy.
Josh Bell, Juan Soto, and Nelson Cruz all have homered. If the Nats are going to have an average offense it's coming from these guys doing this.
But everyone else looks bad. Hernandez a few singles, no walks, 4 Ks in only 16 PA. Franco one single, no walks, 4 Ks in only 13 PA. Lane Thomas has a walk! But no singles and 4 Ks in only 8 PAs. Robles has nothing but 4Ks in 9 PA.
I must single Escobar out. One single in 10 PA and 5 Ks. That's a strikeout every other at bat for a guy who doesn't generate any power (45 homers in a 13 season career). I said "wait until Memorial Day" but there's a good chance this guy isn't here then.
The bench Yadi, DSG, Fox, and Adams. 1 single in 16 PA, no walks, 6 Ks. TBF neither Soto nor Cruz are hitting too much either but guys who HAVE hit get more benefit of the doubt. Certainly one series is not any reason to worry.
This is kind of what we expected to see right? Maybe Ruiz is good. The offense will run through Soto, Bell and Cruz. The rest of the offense will determine if the Nats are ok or terrible and right now they are not hitting, not hitting for power, not patient, and striking out too much. And it's not just one of them it's all of them. Bad tidings. Bad tidings.
Pitching?
Fedde has a decent start. Which if he didn't have 5 years of stats behind him might get you thinking he could be ok. He's maybe a 5th that's it, but hey I'll take a 5th if he can finally put together a full season of not sucking. Corbin started ok, then struggled. Adon looked bad, but he's not a major league starter. The one you really look at is Gray who did manage not to give up 3 homers (only 1), but got hit around. As a guy the Nats want to fill the middle of the rotation I'll be paying attention to every start of his.
The pen? It was fine. Doolittle looks right. And a couple other guys (Rainey, Finnegan) looked like they might work somewhere. Where as Arano and Voth did not. Given the history of Voth I'm fine if the Nats have a short leash with him, though they might not now with Mason Thompson hurt. For relievers though waiting is almost certainly necessary. It's also something we never do. Because when they are bad it matters a ton and is very visible.
Other NL East teams? Basically they all got off to starts we expected. No point picking apart staffs and batters when they've only faced one team, they have limited stats, AND we didn't even follow them to make impressions. We'll see if the other Mets starters and their relievers are good... or just faced the Nats bats. If the Phillies are going to homer at a crazy rate... or just faced the gutted A's pitching. If the Braves pitching will strike out a ton of guys... or just faced the Reds bats. If the Marlins continue to be what we thought they'd be - a great pitching team with a terrible offense that the pitching can't cover.
12 comments:
Fox. He can't hit, but during ST and yesterday he showed he can field. And he CAN bunt -- it was gratifying to finally see a beautifully laid-down bunt score a run. Little things.
The rotation is really worrying. These are pitchers that will be rocked. However, for a couple of batters Fedde did look good, mixing up some stuff. Little things.
And, we do have speed, even if it's aging. Fun fact for monday: Nats have two of the top three active players in career triples. See if you can guess who they are.
Little things.
I'd assume Escobar is one and DSG is the other. I mean no other vet makes sense... Hernandez? Did Robles have enough this soon? People don't hit triples... Time to look it up.
Huzzah!
Fun fact : It's possible that after this year Trout will be 2nd in active players with triples. (currently ties 7th but I can see everyone but Kiermaier being gone after this year)
Let Akil Baddoo run wild Tigers - he's the best bet for getting a bunch as a decent hitter with good speed on a bad team in that park
Oh, boy.
You know how to tell the moment a team's season is over? When, instead of discussing the team, the subject turns to recherché--if you use fancy French art terms, I can use a fancy French word--statistics and personal information. When the conversation turns to triples after the Nats' opening weekend, it's a baseball truth universally acknowledged that it's curtains for the 2022 Nats.
So, in that vein: Lucius Fox is one of 9 players born in the Bahamas to have played (or play) major league baseball. Besides Fox, there is another native Bahamian currently in the big leagues: namely, Jazz Chisolm in Miami. And not unexpectedly, Miami's Bahamian is way better than Washington's. (See what happens when you cut your scouting department?)
As the season drags on, I can hardly wait for lively exchanges on this blog about the best baseball nicknames and sobriquets from the 1920s and 1930s. I'll open with "Wild Horse of the Osage."
Lerners might be selling the Nats: https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/04/11/washington-nationals-lerners-potential-sale/
The final curtain on 2022.
Did not like seeing that Post article pop up on my phone. The Lerners, despite plenty of frustrations, are well-above average owners. I don't expect the next owner (if they do indeed sell instead of just selling off a piece of the pie) to be nearly as good. Though I wouldn't be opposed to having Bezos buy the team to get into a d*ck measuring contest with Cohen and the Mets
I would love Bezos to buy the team, but I think it's unrealistic. He is *so* much wealthier than all the other owners - I am skeptical that they would let him into the club because of that.
On the other hand, MLB is experimenting with a different approach to broadcasting games, much more so than other sports leagues. Bezos - who let's remember is no longer CEO of Amazon - is extremely well-situated to help facilitate MLB streaming.
I am hoping the new shareholders or owners won't be interested in moving the team!
One of the more interesting sidenotes I noticed in that article was that the Lerners were in the running to buy the now-Commanders back in 1999. We complain about moves the Nats make sometimes, but imagine how much less fraught and awful football in DC could have been without Dan Snyder (or conversely, how much worse the Nats could have been with a Snyder-esque owner).
When did Rainey become the closer?
I thought Finnegan had the job
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