Monday Quickie - Spring has sprung

It feels weird having a Spring without the Post or MASN telling us what's up. Having to go by Zuckerman's updates or official MLB news. 

Anyway Zack Littell signs with the Nats which is good for the Nats but a bit weird. Well maybe.  Littell was a reliever that got coverted to a starter in 2023. He was pretty solid in his half season there and in 2024 and put up a good ERA in 2025.  That masked a pretty mediocre pitching effort though. If you were to describe his pitching it would be "I'm going to put a lot of balls in the strike zone. I'm not going to walk anyone and when I do want you to chase you'll do it but I actually don't make you miss on those chases and what you do hit you hit hard"  It's a weird combination that relies on the fact most balls put into play are outs and is one of those things when guys can hit him hard enough the whole thing will come apart fast.  Like "my last season in the majors I started 7 games and had an ERA of 8.50" fast. But at only 30 you wouldn't think now is when it happens. So why wouldn't a team take a chance on this guy for their rotation. Likely to throw 180 fair innings - that has major league value.  I'm a bit confused. Like you'd want to give a promising rookie a shot over this pile of mediocrity but you also just need arms. You always do! 

Anyway the contract includes a mutual option which is good because it may make him tradeable if he surprises to start as opposed to Mikolas that's just an old pitcher trying to pitch well enough to get another deal in 2027. It's a good move for this team so I can't complain but it does leave the question of "aren't there too many starters now?"  That's fine to me.  That's a good question to have, even if it's just "aren't there too many mediocre starters" Like I just said - you always need arms. The rotation will be interesting in how it sets up. 

Really I'm kind of worried they let Lord, who surprised last year on a team that should now be looking hard at every stroke of good luck, fall back to the pen or into AAA for seasoning or whatever. 

Anything to watch this year record wise?

In short, no.  

Longer :  

The vagaries of timing and injuries mean some of the true hitting stars of the era like Trout, Bryce, Freenman and Machado are between milestones, while the slightly older players either couldn't stay stars (Cutch, Longoria) or petered out entirely (Adam Jones, Pablo Sandoval, Jason Heyward). Meanwhile on the pitching side it's becoming harder and harder for guys to get wins or honestly to get to the majors at an age early enough to challenge things. Do they break more often too? Seems like it. 

Offensively 

No one is near 3000 hits with Freeman having the best chance in 4+ years or so. Arenado should get to 2000 this year. 

Stanton is two years away from 500. Judge should go over 400 this year and if you like guys going over 300 homers - this is your year.  Along with Ohtani we should see Marcell Ozuna, George Springer, Mookie Betts, Matt Olsen  and the forgotten star Jose Ramirez all cross that mark. As well as very likely Lindor and quite possibly Alonso. 

Jose Ramirez and Ozuna should also both knock in their 1000th run this year along with Eugenio Suarez.  

In less impressive stats expect Paul Goldscmidt to strike out for the 2000th time, and pass into 8th place all time this year. Lots of guys climbing this list if that's your thing. 

On the Mound 

There was an outside chance we could have been looking at Verlander hit 300 wins this year but an injury in 2024 and bad luck in 2025 means he's at least 2 years away, if he has that in him (I'll bet anything over 10 wins this year brings him back)

Kenley Jansen should get into 3rd place all time in saves showing you want the gap between Rivera/Hoffman and next really means. Chapman should get his 400the save as well.  

Max won't get close to 300 wins but he'll get his 3500th K this year and will also pass into the Top 10 all time likely ending the season 7th (and Verlander should be 6th)  Kevin Gausman should get to 2000 this year.  

 Max should get to 3000 IP this year  

Recent drafts revisted

In our quest to look forward we often can only remember the latest things. For the Nats that means looking to who they could draft in 2026 and checking up on last years #1 pick Eli Willitis.  But the development of the next great Nats team, if soon will rely on the last few drafts. These are the ones I glossed over in my "why did things go wrong" as I was talking about the bust starting in 2020. But it's when the team took a renewed effort into getting these things right and it's worth looking back to see what the Nats did pick up and where they are standing now, starting in 2021. 

 

2021 

(1-11) Brady House  (2-47) Daylen Lile (3-83) Brandon Boissiere

Rest : (7-203) Jacob Young  (10-293) Darren Baker (12-353) Andrew Alvarez 

The 2021 was the first year they went from the old 40 rounds to the current 20 and it gave the Nats their what looks to be their best draft since 2016. House and Lile should both start for the Nats in 2026 and Young could as well, and if not fits in at the 4th OF.  Alvarez is a now older AAA SP who in the vein of Irvin/Parker came up and did well but no one expects much of. Baker is a slap-hitting org guy who got his cup of coffee presumably as a favor to his dad.  

Saenz is a name I recall that you could see as just an arm that comes up

 

2022 

(1-5) Elijah Green (2-45) Jake Bennett (3-84) Trey Lipscomb

Rest : Brad Lord (18-531) 

And they followed it up with a draft that seemed to break the team. Green while still young (22 this year) can't make enough contact and is doing damningly poor for a Top 5 pick. You can't miss so badly with this pick. Bennett had to quickly get Tommy John and was just traded to Boston for a livelier arm. Bennett's not a bad bet but entering the "prove it" age with 45 innings in AA whereas Perales has a couple more years of building. Swap made sense for both teams. Lipscomb was the best they had ready for a while but he's not a major league player. Lord is probably going to be the best of the bunch a true diamond in the rough pitcher that Rizzo's team developed? Anything can happen!

Riley Cornelio, who I mentioned last post was drafted in the 7th round here and could have a place with the Nats 

 

2023 

(1-2) Dylan Crews (2-40) Yohandy Morales (3-71) Travis Sykora 

Rest : Uhhhh

Crews' biggest issue is not his performance (mildly disappointing production but not out of line and with promising fancy stats) but the performance of those drafted around him. Skenes is a superstar, Langford has been a solid all around player for 2 years, Jacob Wilson an All-Star. Rhett Lowder looks like an ace if he can be healthy. Nolan Schanuel has been a useful starter for two years. Kyle Teel looks like a long term answer at catcher. And Matt Shaw should be getting another go round as a starter but Alex Bregman grabbed his spot.  That's 7 out of the Top 15 picks having better career starts than Crews and a few other were HS guys who are ready to make their mark. So did the Nats get it right or wrong here? He's no Elijah Green but in context it could be a huge miss. We're waiting. Yohandy is a solid bat that's going to get a chance at some point and the same chance will be afforded Sykora is a well-liked arm. 

 But the draft is very "Rizzo special"  with more guys who should be out of baseball than even be organizational depth. 

 

2024 

(1-10) Seaver King (1-39) Caleb Lomavita (2-44) Luke Dickerson (3-79) Kevin Bazzell

 Rest : TETT (Too early too tell)

Seaver King is a work in progress with everyone loving his make-up and skills and waiting on the production to follow. Think about Dickerson the same way but less production and more projection as he's just turning 20. Lomavita and Bazzell are both C.  Bazzell isn't hitting so far, and Lomavita is but it's hard to see him make it as a catcher and he might not hit well enough otherwise. These are the guys that make up a lot of the Nats personal Top 20 and as you can read it's not because they forced their way in.  The other drafts have just left spots open for guys with more question marks that can't be answered with "No"s. Of course I won't deny were getting REAL early in guys careers here - first full minor league season. 

 

If I were to take an overview the 2020 COVID draft and 2021 drafts seemed to work out for the Nats in whatever approach they took but the 2022-2023 were back to the big swings that left the minors devoid of depth in search of stars. Great if you hit, troubling if you don't. 2024 seems like it might be the same but I won't land judgment there just yet. 

This is why the Top 20 otherwise is mostly trade returns. The recent years were pretty weak. If you are looking for a miracle, a Nats team competing in 2028, look to the names of the guys you have heard before - the major leaguers, guys like Susana, and names here like Sykora and hope they nearly all work out. Hope for a C to quickly emerge from the deep pool of questions - Ford, Lomavita, Bazzell and yes, Millas has a half-year to do it. Because that's the only way it'll happen. There isn't a next wave coming after this. There's a break coming before we get to Willitis and say 2029 and beyond and if that all doesn't happen that next group post-break will include guys that this group brings back in trade. 

Monday Quickie - Hello? Is anyone out there?

Not you guys but Nats news. Anyone care? 

Zuckerman is doing his thing over at Substack asking a good question - who's going to be the closer.  I'd bet on Clayton Beeter, who I like in part because it's unlikely the Dodgers (a great minor league operation) and Yankees (a minor league that readily develops decent relievers) are both wrong about the guy having solid skills. Cole Henry could also be the choice as a long time org favorite. But given that closer doesn't matter as much as using the best guys in the best spot maybe you let a Drew Smith have it and use Beeter and Henry when you need them? This is more a contract question for these guys than what's best for the team because whoever gets the role can get more money.  

If that race doesn't get you going, the "excitement" in Spring turns to the kids. Watching Eli Willitis a legit prospect get his first major league camp swings in is a real thing to be interested in, but it'll be at least late 2027 before we see him, one would think.  So we're relying on Riley Cornelio (think budget Brad Lord) to be the breakout Spring player? Yikes.   

This is one spring where I'd actually be happy about getting excited about a random guy doing real well.  Why not? 

Drew Smith and lingering questions

 The Nats brought in Drew Smith.  He just went through his second Tommy John but says he's fully recovered.  He's been a live-arm guy who has always outperformed his fancy stats.  If one was to theorize it could be because his fastball is fantastic and when he needs to dial it up to get an out he can do it. But his other pitches aren't good and when all you can do to succeed is dial up the fastball well, that's how you get a guy with two Tommy Johns and under 200 IP over 6 seasons of pitching. 

As a minor league deal it's fine and I guess the Nats have reached the time when they feel thy can pick up bargains. Will they make many more moves? I doubt it but expect a few more here and there.  Maybe a veteran catcher.  Maybe a DH.  Another reliever.  Not anyone that would excite you but gap fillers. 

The signings aren't going to be the focus of the Spring though.  Instead we should be focused on these questions

Will CJ Abrams be here on Opening Day?  The Nats are in rebuild mode with an aim to have the #1 minor league organization in baseball.  It seems pretty clear that trading Abrams, with limited control left, would be a way of getting there.

What is the plan at Catcher?  Ruiz has the money but he's been literally unplayable in recent years.  Do they start with Millas?  Ford? Or is there a vet out there they will throw back behind the plate at first?

What's the DH/OF situation?  Are the Nats having a set OF?  If so who is in it?  Do they go Lile/Wood and forgo D or do they give Young another shot.  If the OF is not set then what's the rotation plan for DH?

What's up with the hurt arms? Josiah Gray should be pitching in the Spring and we'll get a sense there.  Will we hear anything about Herz or Williams, who have been moved to the 60-Day DL? And how does this factor in the projection for the rotation?

Ok Spring is here.  Well Spring is there in Florida.  Let's get started. 

Monday Quickie - Miles to go before we sleep

 Last week the Nats signed Miles Mikolas as their first "FA to sign to trade later" of the off-season and honestly I like the deal. 

 For those that don't remember Miles as one of the quality St Louis starters undone by the Nats staff obliterating his offense in the 2019 NLCS, a little background. He was initially a failed starter for the Padres that went over to Japan and had some success.  The Cardinals brought him back to the states in 2018 and he performed great, then ok in 2019, then got hurt in 2020, injuring his flexor tendon.  He'd get back to full-time work in 2022 and was solid but hasn't been able to replicate that since, likely in large part because at that time he was already 33 years old.  The last 3 years he has simply been an innings eater, reliably going out every 5th day to give you 5-6 innings. 

 He isn't that good anymore but the Nats don't need good. 70 pitchers threw 150 innings last year. The Nats had the two with the worst ERAs with Jake Irvin (5.70) and Mitchell Parker (5.68) and they were that bad. Miles was 11th worst but with a slightly lucky 4.84 ERA, unless age gets his this year, he'll likely put up the same amount of innings as these two with a half-run better ERA.  Still bad, but acceptably so, not "we have to find a fading starter at the end of his career to replace this" bad like Irvin and Parker. 

 Since 2023 Miles has gotten by with impeccable control. If you want to worry that did slip last year to his second worst total since 2018.  But at 2.1 BB/9 it's still very good.  The problem is it has to be because both his ability to keep the ball in the park and his already weak K rate are slipping too. This is age catching up with him and at some point his ability to not give guys free passes won't be able to overcome the fact guys will get hits then take him deep.  Let's hope it's not in 2026. 

I do wonder why it's a 1-yr deal as usually a cheap-o two year deal is the way to go with guys you expect to trade simply because if they are doing well enough that someone else wants them, that cheap 2nd year is the real enticement. But who knows the vagaries of the current market. The Nats needed an innings eater and I mentioned Miles as a possible pick-up (Chris Paddack the other choice went back to Miami) so I guess I'm fine with this. It was needed. There's nothing stupid about it. Maybe he has a few months of good pitching and gets the Nats a worthwhile lottery ticket. 

Monday Quickie - "Pitchers" and "Catchers" report

Baseball will start this week but will it? The Nats are a team in limbo in every way. They have no home station. They have no home coverage. Under new leadership they have no direction (yet).  They have an ownership as stable as the next rumor that they are trying to sell. They are a baseball team this year because they were a baseball team last year and baseball teams just don't go away. 

This Spring will be an exercise in finding the bright spots.  In again looking for what might be part of the next great Nats team and evaluating them.  In again scouring the minors for any unexpected bright spot that can make you think tomorrow will be better than today because today should be very bad. In again trying to figure what the Nats can get for their tradeable assets. 

It'll be about staying out of the league cellar, the division cellar, and maybe sneaking into 4th.  It'll be about being a feeder team in August and playing spoiler in September. It'll be about the baseball happening around the Nationals more than the baseball happening within. 

It'll be about Cade Cavalli and James Wood and Dylan Crews and Brad Lord and Daylen Lile and Brady House and a lot of other names of kids in their early to mid 20s and a lot of prayers that things go right. 

It'll be about dives in the hole and long throws and ninth inning comebacks and moonshot homers. It'll be about getting too excited about a 4 game winning streak. It'll be about reading too much into stats on April 24th even though every year we tell ourselves not to do that. It will likely be bad and inconsequential most of the time but it will be baseball.  Baseball will start this week. Even for the Nats.