Monday Quickie - Foster-ing ideas of greatness

The Nats keep chugging along four steps forward, five steps back, and last game Foster Griffin shut down the White Sox. Ignore the White Sox for a moment, any chance the fancy stats say something is real here? 

No.

Griffin has pitched a lot like Jake Irvin but his BABIP sits at .233 (abnormally low) and his LOB% at 90.3% (abnormally high) and so they aren't scoring the runs off his that they "should". He's not getting a crazy amount of GBs (could be better) or avoiding hard contact (no one really hits him softly).  Poking around here and there I see barely anything. What I can say is his off-speed stuff is good, but his fastball is crap.  He's a junkballer. The ERA is an illusion and he's just fine.  But hey!  Just fine is... well fine!  

Two things to wonder about this week

Nasim Nunez is showing you why he was available in the Rule V draft and also why the Nats picked him up and kept him.  His defense is outstanding and I wouldn't be surprised if playing the whole season at 2B he ends up the 2nd best at the position (Nico Hoerner is truly something) but the guy can't hit. He is among the weakest swingers in the game and he also has an issue making good contact. This would be a bit more palatable at SS where his D would help more and CJ Abrams is a bad fielder. It makes too much sense. Why don't we move these guys around please? 

I don't know what is to be done about the catcher position.  Ruiz is still terrible. Millas hasn't done anything with his chances. Riley Adams, who they are only keeping around as org depth is doing nothing in AAA.  Harry Ford, who they hoped would hot start himself into a solution, is doing less.  Caleb Lomavita... well he's hanging in AA but he's clearly not ready for the majors.  Kevin Bazzell, the "hmmm maybe this is a savvy draft pick" from a couple years back is looking like a 2028 Car Dealer of the Year. As Olivia Rodrigo (new album drops in June) would sing - it's brutal out there.

 Oh since I'm in the minors anything of big interest early? 

• Gavin Fein - the "this is the good guy they got from Texas" hurt his wrist and hasn't played in almost three weeks. 
• Seaver King looks good early in AA - not shocking but exactly the improvement across the board you'd hope for after last years middling half-season. Similar take from the couple years younger Luke Dickerson a couple levels down. 
• Landon Harmon has started hot. Might need a bit more stretching out but seems too good for the Fred Nats already. 
• And what of Dylan Crews?  Still lost. In real danger of being a can't miss that missed.  

James Wood - Star, Superstar, or HOFer?

James Wood has 9 homers in his last 18 games. I don't do math real well* but I think that works out to 81 homers for a season. He's also walked 19 times which would be 171 walks for a season which would be fourth all time. Yes it would come with.... carry the two... 207 strikeouts (t16th all time) but if you are doing the first and the second, the third doesn't matters as much. 

Now James does seem to be an early season guy.  Could be the effort of running around for 150+ games in that huge body wears you down. In 2025 he was great in April, AWESOME in May, and great in June before having a very average back half of the year. I wouldn't be surprised if we see something like that again, but let's not make it a definite trait just yet.

James seems to be settling though into a "better Adam Dunn" path.  Before you poo-poo that understand that Adam Dunn was a two-time All-Star, three time MVP vote winner, who hit 462 homers and is Top 50 all-time in walks. (and left on his own terms when he possibly could have squeaked out a couple more years)  "Better Adam Dunn" is then a guy, if he can stay healthy, who's going to make several All-Star teams, be perennially in the MVP discussion (would probably be so already on a better team), easily clear 500 homers and be in the Top 200 offensive players of all-time. Do you take that or are you really going to angrily demand Top 100 offensive player / HoF potential, or bust? 

I'm not say he couldn't be that but then I think we've got to see something improve here. Either defense (a young Reggie Jackson, a fine HoF comp for Wood, was a decent defender up to coming to New York - so basically half his career) or average (though it may not look it because the late 60s early 70s were bad for hitting, Reggie was usually Top 25 in average until the last third of his career. For a more contemporary comparison, Bryce Harper's** low end overlaps James' high end). Which seems more likely? 

I don't know.  It's not that he can't play better defense. He's clearly athletic, hasn't looked bad at times, and the numbers for this year (which are admittedly practically meaningless when you best evalutate D over multiple years) look ok. He's got a good arm which fits better in RF. But he seems to lack the instincts for the game his speed not showing up in below average range. Defense usually doesn't age well and that's before you consider the body type of James Wood, more standard gangly tall guy then weird "15% scaled up big human" Aaron Judge. 

But the average doesn't hold much more promise. It is only going to get better if he cuts down on his Ks and frankly that's not his game and you shouldn't be sure if you want that to change. If gripping and ripping with a elite level of location identification is what gets him 40, 50 homers a year why would I try to mess with that? If that's even possible. 

Could he maybe be better at SB? He IS fast and still young enough to take advantage of it. While his instincts aren't great looking at his major league SB/CS numbers, I'd like to see him get some real schooling on this. He's on base so much it could be a real advantage. 

James doesn't quite line-up exactly with the HoF comparisons (which is why we started with Dunn). He likely has a patience advantage over Reggie, who didn't walk as much as you'd think.  He likely has a power advantage over Bryce who never became the league leader homer hitter type he projected as. Perhaps Best Adam Dunn IS a HoFer. 

Anyway, this is all a rumination on a guy who is again someone we are talking about as "He'll be great!" and trying to figure out how great that means. As the season racks up more losses than wins and more "prospects" than not flame out, enjoy this guy.  He's real. 

 

*Not true. I do math real well.  

**Yes, Bryce is a HoFer. Like not TODAY if he spends the next 3 years hitting .200 with no homers, but assuming a healthy season he'll go over 400 homers and Top 100 offensive players sometime next year at age 34. That's real close to a lock with whatever else he can do over the back end of his career after that.  

Tuesday Quickie - NL East works for the Nats

The Nats are fun team this year. 

 Well sort of. 

 If you like high-scoring baseball you are in luck because the Nats are scoring the 3rd most runs in the game, almost a run more than average. Also the Nats are allowing the MOST runs in the game, over 1 and a half runs more than average. That's a losing combination but it's an entertaining losing combination. 

 What adds to the fun is pound for pound the NL East is starting the season as the weakest division in baseball. Meaning the Nats issues aren't putting them in last place staring up as they would be in the NL Central, or in the middle but a good distance from third as they would be in the NL West. They are bad but other teams are worse and other teams that expected to be good are worse leaving the Nats relatively feeling pretty good about themselves. 

The Braves are running away with the division right now and the stats have a team that is the 2nd best hitting team in baseball with the best staff.  That'll do it. The Braves staff is getting real lucky. Their rotation is pitching to a 4.00 ERA but seeing a 2.50.  Their relief corps has four guys with ERAs under 1. But the key is more staying healthy than doing silly things as injuries derailed last year.  Offensively Dom Smith (yes Nats legend Dom Smith!) can't be this good nor Mauricio Dubon but they haven't gotten what than can from Acuna. C Drake Baldwin being a star makes a huge difference from a position you are usually hoping for mere non-embarrassment (Ruiz... failing at that)

The Marlins are an average squad in their results.  They've put together a nice reliable starting staff, but with the same soft underbelly issue in the pen as the Nats. The offense is literally full of guys you never heard of having wildly different years from Otto Lopez looking like an MVP at SS to Heriberto Hernandez and Graham Pauley doing whatever that is called with the bat. It's seemingly more smoke and mirrors than the Nats so maybe the Nats can be 2nd place for a while. 

The Phillies are struggling everywhere. Bryce and Schwarber are still stars but their homegrown "talent" continues to disappoint. Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott in particular. When the lineup is four batters deep pitchers can work around that. The starting pitching really isn't this bad though. Basically bad luck right when it can't be washed out in the full season sample.  They should be better but unless the offense clicks I'm not sure they will be playoff good. 

The Mets, in the midst of a 1000 game losing streak  are pitching perfectly well.  There are some ups and downs with the vagaries of the early season but it's a perfectly reasonable playoff staff that is middle of the pack now and should be better. The offense is a mess though. Lindor is in one of those extended slumps he can go through and Bichette looks lost.  Brett Baty and Mark Vientos, guys they were counting on to be average are just bad. This puts a lot on Soto's shoulders... and he's out with no good replacement. It shouldn't be this bad and it won't be, but I'm not sure it will be good. 

The Nats are in a nice spot then I guess. The Marlins have a slightly better record but should come down, possibly a lot.  The Phillies and Mets are worse and should come up, but maybe not as much as they need. It's a bunch of games against opponents that shouldn't knock the Nats around.  FWIW the Nats are probably not this good relying a lot on Abrams and Wood and luck to score runs to cover for a bad staff. But the record is fair. this is a team that if lucky gets to 70 wins. And maybe this year in the NL East that keeps them in spitting distance of 2nd place. 

Nats this year vs last - some early stats

It's still too early to look at individual stats but we can start to look at team trends and see what underlying things look good and what, if any, look scary. Last year the Nats issues can be broken down like this : 

Batting

2025 

Home Runs - 161  - 24th in majors

Launch Angle - 9.9% 

Walks - 443 - 28th   

At the plate the Nats could make contact with the ball - they were middling in both average and strikeouts. That should help on the path to a middling overall offense, but you need to occasionally walk to get guys on base and hit homers to drive everyone in. The Nats were terrible at both of those. 

 2026

Home Runs - 20 - t 6th.  

Launch Angle - 10.4 % 

Walks -59 - 19th  

Grain of salt on the counting stats since 1-2 games played difference can throw things out of whack but the Nats power and patience are both up.  The launch angle is improved but in a general sense you want to be in the 12.5 to 15.5 range (there is "too high") so room to grow. James Wood especially is held back a bit by this because when he doesn't square a ball (which he does often) he slams it into the ground - he never misses under the pall.  No pop-ups but no flares or with his power lazy fly balls that just keep carrying. 

 

Pitching 

2025 

Home Runs - 214  - 26th in majors

BA - .268 - 29th 

Hard Hit - 44.1 / Exit Velo - 90.1 - 30th  

Walks - 566 - 27th   

Last year it's easy to say the Nats pitching staff did nothing really right. The other team hit them and hit them hard and drove in all those guys the Nats put on base when they did it.  

 2026

Home Runs - 34  - 30th in majors

BA - .262 - 27th 

Hard Hit - 46.3 / Exit Velo - 90.3 - 30th  

Walks - 84 - 27th   

I'd like to tell you thing have gotten better but they haven't. When basically all your good pitchers walk this will happen.  Can the Nats improve? Yeah probably. Even just a minor improvement to "lower third" would keep them competitive if the offense finds it's way to average. 

What would be my biggest concern?  Well the Nats decent-ness so far is carried by their homers and there isn't a great stat telling me why they are doing ok hitting homers. They don't hit a lot of balls hard as a group or hit a lot of balls in the air. (in fact they hit a lot of balls on the ground) so you'd think they'd be much lower.  Also it might be because cold bats are exaggerated early on in a way hot bats aren't.  Teams can hit .200 as a team but they don't hit .300.  The Nats just might be the hot team at the moment who will get passed by everyone else as they normalize (and pound the Nats' pitching). 

 But worries are for tomorrow.  Today is for more .500ish baseball.   

 

Monday Quickie - Sweep

 Look you wear those terrible Milwaukee City Connects bad things are going to happen. 

 After a slow start James Wood is HOT batting .500 (Yes .500) with 4 homers and 3 doubles in the last 7 games. His complete turnaround along with streaky CJ staying on a hot streak and Curtis Mead being this weeks Joey Weimer has kept the offense moving despite everybody else being pretty mediocre.  Could this be real?  Kind of! Like James Wood IS really good. CJ Abrams has this in him. Curtis Mead... well every week will bring a new Curtis Mead! Someone else is bound to be hot at any one time. 

Pitching wise it's been not great but not as apocalyptically bad as before.  Foster Griffin and Zack Littell are taking advantage of the relatively cold early season bats and Cavalli is doing well too. Outside of Mikolas the only concern is some shaky outings by Cole Henry.  The Nats really see to nail down at least the back end of the bullpen. Beeter has been ok, Lord pretty good. Paxton Schultz is probably not the needed third arm. Could this be real?  Less likely!  But take it while you can get it while you can get it because the cavalry isn't close.  Travis Sykora is coming back from Tommy John. Jarlin Susana is recovering from lat surgery. And Luis Perales looks like you'd expect the 6th best prospect in a so-so organization would look meaning... maybe he's something but don't expect him to force anything right away. (your best bet there is probably Alex Clemmey - solid but also crazy wild (7 walks in 6 IP) in two short AA starts so far) 

The Nats have earned this start and now have some breathing room thanks to the sweep. They stay on the road to face the hot Pirates in a fun battle of "which of these is more real" before heading home to face the going nowhere Giants. 

If you aren't paying attention TONIGHT is the game to watch. Cavalli who we always want to take a look at, vs Skenes likely the best pitcher in baseball who has looked like himself after a disaster on Opening Day. The Pirates have top notch pitching up and down the rotation and the Nats catch their hottest 4. The bullpen goes 4 deep right now. So if the Nats are going to win they likely have to shut the Pirates down. The lineup is a very black and white one. The top 5 are as good as any lineup in baseball has been this year. The bottom 4 are incredibly bad with Ozuna looking like he'd rather be sipping Mai Tais and Konnor Griffin starting the conversation on whether he needs to go back to AAA (still will probably get a couple more weeks to figure it out)  

Let's keep this "Close enough to .500 to be fun" train moving! 

Is Mikolas done?

 Miles Mikolas' last start was his best start of the year.  He also threw only 3 innings and managed to give up 5 hits and 3 walks. While we don't like to jump on anything too early he is a guy who will be 38 in August and the idea that he's hit the final wall isn't crazy. 

The truth is Miles has been bad for a while, since 2023 really. Basically overnight his fastball went from great to trash and he went from All-Star to just a guy. Since then he gives up some homers, doesn't strike anyone out, and is EXTREMELY hittable.  But he was able to hang on thanks to some great control which limited the damage. But this year he's already walked 7 guys in 12 innings. 

Trying to parse out what's going on from fancy stats in three games is tough, ok it's a bit pointless, but we try anyway. What's glaring is his change-up just doesn't hold up anymore and it's plopping down low for an easy recognizable take. But that's a ball, what's being pounded is his curve and slider. Both are also missing the plate more too. He's actually throwing fewer meatballs but they are getting absolutely crushed. It might also factor in that everything is slower from him - that could be just early in the season. He did start slowly in 2023 and 2024 as well and it's been his wildest month in the "i'm not good now" part of his career. 

If you want to try to paint a picture there are two possibilities. 

One, is just as an older guy it's taking him longer to get into top form and the difference at his age and skill between top form and whatever this is, is stark. It's a major league pitcher vs a AAA pitcher. But once the arm gets loose enough the MPH will jump a little, the control will get to it's usual form and he'll be fine. Just fine, he is what he is, but he won't be a guy you are looking to throw to the curb anymore. 

Two, is he's lost enough control on his pitches that he can't reliably throw strikes. He's lost enough speed on his pitches that he can't fool batters, and the ABS system closing in the zone doesn't help either. They are easily identifying balls, sitting on any mistake and either teeing off or taking the walk. His only hope is that he can lean into his sinker to throw more strikes and get ahead more often, forcing the batter to swing more at his now missing the plate pitches. 

Since One can take a while guess what - this isn't something that can be answered until mid -May which is what we say about everything. But we can canary in the coal mine with his control and MPH over the next few games. The next 2-3 should be better than the first set. What's better?  You'd probably like to see a MPH+ more on his slider fastball and change and something closer to 1/3 balls to 2/3 strikes. This would set him up to a place where he was most of last year, which you could live with. We'll check back in.  

Monday Quickie - Vacation last week

 I TOLD you March is problematic

So since we last left the Nats they... became the Nats we expected. Joey Weimer is not a secret superstar.  The pitching is not just fine. 

They actually didn't do a bad job hitting against LA but it wasn't enough.  The good news is they are done with perennial playoff teams for a series. The bad news is the next week isn't super easy - at least if you believe the early season results.  St. Louis looks to be an average team, while Milwuakee and Pittsburgh(?) (!) look to be pretty decent. This to me is a "hold on" week where you hope to go like 5-5 or 4-6 and not have the bottom drop out of the season by mid-April. 

The big worries currently are James Wood looking incredibly lost at the plate (17Ks in 45 PAs) and Miles Mikolas looking washed. The tissue paper soft underbelly of the pen is also a worry but we knew about that anyway and guys like Miles were supposed to cover for that. Also Millas looks bad and Ruiz is still himself so the C problem isn't going away anytime soon. 

The big pluses are... well Weimer who it's only fair to take the whole season so far and he started so hot a cool off still doesn't take him from the league leaders.  For me it's really Brady House looking ok. He's the 23 year old you are betting on as a piece of the future.  It's nice to see Young hit, Abrams crush, and Garcia look good, but we've seen these all before and know the latter two can be streaky and Young may not be real. We'll come back to all these at the end of the month. Honestly for Abrams probably Memorial Day because that guy can swing a torch for two months than an ice club for the next. 

Really though I think our eyes should be on the mound. Is their major league worst 6.27 ERA a Phillies/Dodgers thing or a Nats thing? Are the Nats pitchers that hittable and easy to take out of the park? Let's see what happens in each series.