Offseason Position Discussion : SS

CJ Abrams was the Nats SS in 2025 and he was no worse than their 3rd best player.  But by all metrics he wasn't a good SS. Do you try to move him to a less demanding position to maximize total value with Nunez at SS or do you let Abrams stick? The Nats let him play SS again and he rewarded them with an All-Star level season at the plate. At one point in early August he might have the best hitting SS in baseball. The Nats entertained trades but found nothing they liked so they stuck with him. Instead they had him work in more DH time and some 2B work. Whether related or not, the wheels came off at the plate and he was pretty terrible in the last quarter of the season. 

 The presumption again is CJ will be the SS. The question again is will CJ be here 

Presumed Plan : 

Abrams plays SS holding ground until a mid-season trade in case the Nats somehow roll snake-eyes on all their middle infield prospects. Then he's off to some contender for whatever the Nats can get back 

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

The management doesn't seem to be committed to CJ being around here long term. We haven't heard long term deals discussed, they don't talk about him that way, and oh yeah, they did look to trade him last year. It'd be nice to trade Abrams for something really good in this off-season and I think that was a real plan, but Abrams end to the season means they might be selling low. 

Since none of the MI prospects are reading right now, trading CJ means a Furman/Nunez middle infield and likely guts the lineup of a team you are hoping hangs around in an interesting way again to get fans back into the team for 2028 when you are really trying. That doesn't seem like a good idea. Instead it makes more sense to keep him, hope he has another great season at the plate, hope your prospects look ready by July and then make the best deal you can.  

My Take :  

CJ Abrams likes to play SS.  Unfortunately he's not the best at it. In fact he's one of the worst by most defensive metrics.  However his bat is for real.  If he can put a full-season together he would be a Top 5 bat which would be in line with what he was thought of coming up. There's a real chance you are trading away a star in Abrams. 

But you aren't trading away a Jeter. Jeter was a legit Top 3 SS bat from basically 1998 (age 24) until 2010.  Along with all the other stuff that's why you put up with / tried to compensate for his defense. Abrams was 25 last year and we're still in the "hoping he puts it together to be a Top 3 SS at the plate".  He's not a generational player. He's just maybe a star. And guys like Willits also may be stars. 

I am of the "don't trade good players - sign them" school. But if Abrams won't move off SS with good spirit I don't think you have a choice... assuming the prospects give you a guy to replace him. I'd love to see Abrams walk into Spring and say "put me at 2B" but if not I think we're headed for a trade and I get it. 

If that's the case though I think the Nats messed up by not dealing him last year.  The market wasn't great but it's probably not going to be better this year.  Is Abrams really going to be maybe the best SS at the plate at the end of July again?  I'd bet on no. And with one less year under control he's going to bring back less than whatever didn't impress the org last year. It was really a pull the trigger or keep the man time and they are going to end up doing neither and I think that was a rookie org mistake that I hope they learn from. 

Abrams is a good fun player with another 5+ years of usefulness in this league. I hope the stars align and the Nats find a way to keep him here. 

Offseason Position Discussion : 2B

After a strong finish to 2025 left him with near average stats at the plate, the Nats wanted to find a place to put slick fielding Nasim Nunez.  As CJ was happy at short, the Nats settled at 2nd and Nasim flashed that glove, showing himself to be one of the best fielders at the position.  To boot, he was strong on the basepaths stealing 49 bases for the year. However sometimes it felt like he flashed his glove at the plate as well instead of a bat. Nasim, who never really hit in the minors, crashed and put up an embarrassing .209 / .291 / .244 line with an amazingly low 6 doubles in nearly 500 trips to the plate.   He'd move to short when the Nats tried Abrams at 2B but that line won't play anywhere. 

Presumed Plan : 

If Abrams is around playing SS, Nunez is fighting with the recently acquired Nate Furman for 2B playing time to keep the space warm for Nats prospects King and/or Willits and/or Fitz-Gerald.  If Abrams is gone, Nunez is playing SS while Furman plays 2B to keep the spaces warm for ditto.

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

Nunez does not hit like a major leaguer and that glove isn't good enough to make up for it. Ideally you bring up someone then but outside the prospects mentioned above there really isn't a fill-in worth kicking Nunez out for. So they traded for it.  The acquisition of Furman, a decent AAA player with a great eye, tells us the Nats are not resigned to just Nunez playing next season.  They don't want SS/2B to be an offensive hole of the magnitude it was in 2026.  That's just not how major league teams roll. 

My Take :  

The kid can't hit.  All glove has almost never been a thing in baseball and while Nunez is a good glove, hell, he's a great glove, he is NOT a transformative one that can carry an A ball bat to a regular major league starting role. So yeah, you gotta say tough luck kid, and either sit him on the bench as a late inning glove man or send him back to AAA to work on his hitting (or really you could cut him). 

With the Nats prospects heavily representing middle infield Nunez is expendable but I could see how the Nats would think he's not worth expending now as anyone you put there has an expiration date of 2028. But I'm heartened to see the pick-up of Furman, even if he proves to be no better, as a sign that they aren't just going to stick Nunez out there for another 150 games and leave an open hole in the lineup. Right now I'd probably start Furman at 2B over Nunez but if they decide in Spring that Nunez looks better that's fine.  Furman is here only to be the other possible choice, not because he's a slam dunk. 

 The middle infield for the Nats is in a limbo as they decide what to do with Abrams and which of their kids pop-up and when. In the meantime that leaves a space for Nasim, but only in the meantime. The Nats org seems to understand that and that makes me happy to see.  

Offseason Position Discussion : 1B

2026 was the year of "Let's Try with Nasim Nunez and Brady House". Why does that matter?  Well with CJ Abrams set at SS that meant House was at 3B and Nunez needed to be at 2B. And THAT meant Luis Garcia needed to be at 1B.  Potentially the freedom to not worry about the defense of 2B let Garcia think about hitting more and he had his best year at the plate, blasting past his career high in homers even before he was traded. 

But yes he was traded leaving a hole at first filled with whoever was around and that was mainly Andres Chaparro, though youngsters Yohandy Morales and Abimelec Ortiz both got time at first as well. Ortiz, a fast riser, struggled.  Morales, a long time "hmm this guy looks better than we thought" prospect, looked good. Chaparro leading the way looked honestly great.  

Presumed Plan : 

Andres Chaparro starts at first. If he struggles Morales picks up the spot.  Ortiz back to AAA to maybe earn a spot depending on who falters at 1B and DH. 

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

Chaparro is on the clock and if the Nats don't see him in their future then they probably see him as potential trade bait and that needs to be showcased if it's going to get the best return. Anyway you look at that you see a guy playing.  That doesn't mean he has to play 1st but 3B will likely be House again, who put up slightly above average numbers after a dismal start, and you tend to cycle at DH more than first.   

My Take :  

It's tempting to hand the spot to Yohandy who has proven himself at every minor league level and is younger, thus more likely to be the future, but denying the half-season Chaparro when he has also consistently been better than AAA would be a mistake.  One mistake teams make is thinking "we have too much good" when usually that is only true for half-seasons where the right number of people are healthy and a couple guys are having good runs.  So focus on the proven good here. 

Also, probably more importantly, Chappy's good was over 228 PA compared to 47 for Morales.  Morales also was putting up HR/FB rate where every third fly ball was a homer.  If he keeps that up he's the greatest home run hitter in history, so I'm going to say chances are he won't. 

As for Ortiz - prove it. 

Offseason Position Discussion : C

The Nats ended last season with a choice.  Ruiz looked cooked. Millas looked maybe passable. Was it time to cut bait on Ruiz and let Millas have a go at it, maybe with a cheap veteran back-up?  The powers that be thought not, likely citing the fact the Nats still owed Ruiz a decent chunk of money (for them), and decided to go with a platoon for 2026. 

That platoon looked like dead men walking in April but in May Ruiz got hot and late in the month took over as the starter. He'd follow with a good June as well and despite a tepid July came back with a good finish to hold the job for the whole season and set up 2027.  Meanwhile Millas never got going and was replaced by trade return Harry Ford who also proceeded to stink.   

Presumed Plan : 

I'd bet in how the season ended.  Ruiz starter, Ford back-up. 

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

As we said in years before last with Ruiz, if you have a usable catcher you use him.  Catcher is a hard position to fill.  After last year there is no reason not to have Ruiz start again. Unless for some reason you get rid of him he's the starter

The back-up is a little more muddled as Millas blew his chance and Ford did not make his own claim.  There are two interesting players in the minors, the out of nowhere Max Romero and the drafted hoping he would hit and he did last year Kevin Bazzell who could see time at the position next year. There's also Caleb Lomavita who if you asked 6 months ago who was the future of catching for the Nationals would have gotten the nod.  He's a ways off though.  

The team has shown itself to be more slow and steady so I think they'd like to see if Ford really isn't ready for primetime and how "real" Romero is with more time in AAA. Romero full time in AAA though blocks Bazzell into regular AA duty to give him ABs keeping him further off.  The line is forming.  

My Take :  

Yeah sure.  I think the Ruiz start is an easy call. You have a catcher. That catcher can play.  Let's not get cute here.  

I don't see any reason to continue with Millas who at 28 last year was "starter or bust" and busted. 

I would like Romero over Ford. Ford's claim to the back-up spot is mostly inertia. He was highly thought of as a prospect and drafted in the first round then proceeded to shine in rookie ball. After that he handled every promotion but never wowed. You could say he needs time to adjust and that might be true. You could also say we're not quite sure what his level is and that is also likely true. An honest evaluation of 2026 though says Romero deserves the time in the majors. This might be different if Romero was a well thought of prospect who's been groomed for years to take over the starting role. The type of guy you want to enter the majors with everything working for him. He's not. He's a flash in the pan you want to see if he'll catch into a fire. You don't need to protect guys like this. Test him out. See what happens. Maybe you get lucky. If Ford is going to be good he'll do well in AAA and you can worry about the "too many good player" problem* later. 

*which is often hypothesized and used to explain moves fans are hesitant for the team to make but never seems to actually materialize  

Who ya got?

 OK I've been away for too long. I'll pick it back up. 

Nothing jumps out at me about these rosters that say Nats. Although a lot of current Nats were former Rays as former Postie current Sun..nie? Jesse Dougherty notes today 

Personally I'm in for the Brew Crew. You? 

Lucky or Unlucky : 2027

It's time for my now annual review of where the team got lucky and unlucky in the past season.  Understanding this can help figure out where 2027 could go, or where it should go, given return to forms are often seen for people way under or over performing. 

 LUCKY 

Both Curtis Mead and Andres Chaparro well out performed expectations for their half-year of batting. They also got a great bit of hitting from Joey Weimer, even if the Nats were never fooled by it.  And Garcia was putting together his best year before being traded

CJ Abrams had the kind of balanced year that you hoped he could have - it's likely not overly lucky but it needs to be mentioned. In here I'd put Cavalli blossoming as well. 

In a different way Foster Griffin being that good was a run of luck but that's why you pick up a bunch of guys, to hope something like this happens 

PJ Poulin had some solid stats despite the fancy stats saying he's not very good.  

Can we say Ruiz is luck? After two horrendous years we certainly can't say we expected it.  

UNLUCKY  

Wood got hurt, luckily not for long but still at this point unlucky it happened.  

Some of the cups of coffee at the end of the year - Ortiz, Ford, - may have had some bad luck hitting it where they ain't  

Cole Henry didn't build on last year, and instead was so bad he ended up being released. Gus Varland gave them nothing. 

DJ Herz had a slow return from Tommy John and suffered a setback before finally getting some innings in.  

AS EXPECTED

Nasim Nunez can't hit. Sorry last year was a weird bit of home run magic unlike his career.  This might be low but it's closer to who he is. 

Guys like Lile, Young, House, Crews on the prospect side and Vivas and Tena on the vet side produced the "eh" results that would be most expected. 

The rest of the pitching, starting and relief, was probably as bad as expected.  No money or talent in, no production out. 

 

So what does this tell us? The Nats were a touch lucky this year. They didn't have any major collapses at the plate or unexpected collapses on the mound. I wouldn't say the pitching was lucky, Foster Griffin is basically a quantity win, but the bats were much better than expected overall which jives with the team finding itself with the top offense in baseball for a while.  

One thing that's hard to tell, given regime change, is how much of this is luck and how much is process.  Did they id better hitters than the last group? Do they develop them better?  It's a question that will be answered in 2027 and 2028, not now.  Now, assuming all things equal, we should expect a more average offense in the upcoming year. What that means is a bat would be extremely helpful though where to put it is a question. Second would be the obvious choice but there are a couple SS kids you don't want to block the way for.  Maybe a 1-2 year vet deal. The Nats might suffer from leaning too much into the House/Young/Lile direction that is probably going to offer nothing great outside of Young's D.  

On the mound, it's pretty simple. They need to go out and spend to upgrade the pen and yes, likely add an arm.  This doesn't have the caveats that the batting does despite some fans wanting to pencil in a 5-man rotation out of what's here and assume it's playoff worthy. They can use another dependable arm and if the army of choices forces an issue with too many good arms worry about that later.  The Nats can't expect to grab 10 mediocre guys and hope it works out. This year shows you - it usually doesn't.

 

So the takeaway for 2027 is the hitting is likely to drop a bit. You can try to prop it up and hope the pitching surprises, or you can really add to the pitching to cover the expected offensive drop. Given the state of prospects the latter makes a lot more sense to me. Do nothing and you can't expect another surprisingly fun half-season from this squad. It would likely drearily march to 70-75 wins. SO do something.  It doesn't have to be a lot but it has to be a 2-3 reliable guys.

Nats in the playoffs! Well former Nats at least...

Potential Nats related rooting interests in the opening round...

 

Philadelphia vs Atlanta

Ok so not a real "Nats friendly" series here to start with given it's two NL East rivals. 

The Phillies have Bryce who did nothing wrong but fans still dislike for being a bit weird and going to a rival.  They also have Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner and former Nats prospect Jesus Luzardo AND Derek Hill who played 13 games for the Nats in 2023. It's Nats-tastic!  

The Braves have Dom Smith and Lane Thomas who is currently hurt.  Also Sandy Leon and Reynaldo Lopez both played for them this year if you want to see those guys get rings. 

Seems like if this matters to you the Phillies are the choice.  

 

White Sox vs Astros 

White Sox have old friend Erick Fedde while Lucas Sims, surely you remember ol Lucas it was just last year, and Derek Hill(? yep traded to PHI) played for them this year. 

Astros are Nats-free.  

BOOO! Just another reason to pull for the Sox. The GOOD Sox. The REAL Sox

 

Boston vs New York 

Traded Curtis Mead is still out for the Red Sox and Joe La Sorsa and I guess we gotta throw in Connolly Early played on the team this year. Weak sauce

Just a solid player Luis Garcia is the obvious one, traded to them this year. Useful Amed Rosario is also there. In the same Early sense both Yovanny Cruz and Jake Bird pitched for the Yankees in 2026. And don't forget they have Nats hero Trent Grisham. 

In honor of John Sterling... theeeeee Yankees WIN!

 

Cubs vs Padres

Cubs only had "Hurtin'" Hunter Harvey pitch for them this year. 

Padres only had "Hurtin'" Lucas Giolito pitch for them this year (nickname doesn't sound as good) but do have both Robbie Ray and Nick Pivetta on the team 

Looks like you should go with the Pads.