Crews up House down and other things

While the Nats have been pretty relatively successful this season so far at the plate , they are not sitting on their laurels. Yesterday they officially sent Brady House down and optioned Joey Weimer to make room for Dylan Crews and Andres Chaparro to come up.  Why?  Well sort of because Jacob Young got hit by a pitch. 

On Monday Jacob Young took a pitch to the ribs. It was apparently pretty bad and he's nursing some bruised ribs. Jacob defensively is the glue that holds the OF together. Lile, although showing a little better this year, is not seen as a great defender. Wood, despite that speed shown off by his inside the park HR, is just bad. Young is one of the better CF in the game and can help compensate for these issues a bit, important for a team already struggling with defense. The Nats 4th OF had been Joey Weimer but he's no CF so the Nats had to dig into the minors. 

Crews is the guy they WANT to be here as a star and he is generally seen as a gifted fielder. After a slow start in the minors, he was hitting much better over the past few weeks - something close to .300 / .370 / .525.  The warning signs of a ton of Ks and limited BBs are still there but he'd only have to keep this up for a week or two more for you to really start thinking about giving him another shot.  Fate made that shot now. Joey Weimer had gone the other way hitting .160 in limited at bats with no homer since April 22nd.  He was always a long shot to be good so this was an easy call. 

But what about House and Chaparro?  That's a little harder to figure. House had not turned the corner this season so far, but he had been better especially in the power department. But he still wasn't swinging well, relying on just swinging hard and the occasional right guess to keep production up.  To make matters worse he was a big negative in the field, a surprise after last years modest performance. So you could see the reasoning behind sending him down.  Let the new org AAA guys get a better look at him and see if they can get him swinging better and his mind back on his glove. The problem is there really isn't a great replacement.  Chaparro was doing modestly well in AAA and is historically just passable at fielding. The must have really wanted House down to send him down because Chappy up is just a roster move. 

 There is of course the specter of roster time manipulation here. If you ARE going to have guys down, teams try to do it in a way that earns them an extra year of cheap service.  If you look at it broadly it rarely matters - they are manipulating guys that usually don't end up stars so any money saved is minimal - but all it really needs is to matter one time. Again - not my money, and they can afford to spend whatever given appreciation of sales prices, so don't do this - but I'm trying to hold back the tide here. And more importantly we don't know if this is how it's going to end up. 

 

In general though I like the moves in a "we're not just running on auto-pilot, let's see what we can do" type of thinking. It's a shame that didn't extend to off-season pitching acquisitions. 

 

 

Friday Quickie : Before you get ahead of yourself

The Nats have been mediocre or worse since COVID (unrelated... OR IS IT) and this year feels different. The young bats are improving to the point you think the line-up can keep the Nats competitive for the season and with some pitching luck... Look we're not talking playoffs here but .500? Or at least best record since 2019? 

But before you take a close to .500 record as a sign of things being different let's remember

2025 :  June 6th the Nats were 30-33.

2024 : June 23rd the Nats were 38-39 

2021 : June 30th the Nats were 40-38 

Starting decently does not guarantee anything other than this team isn't going to be an under 60 win historic loser like the 2022 squad. 

We're edging closer and closer to real evaluation time in terms of stats, but as these season records show us things can go any which way for entire teams let alone players. Hell the very first Nats season - where they surprisingly had a huge NL East lead around July 4th only to finish .500 - should have told you that. Then again I guess you'd have to be at least in your late 20s to have learned that lesson.  

Even if the Nats are closing in on the All-Star Break around .500 there are no promises for a team that doesn't have a history of winning, that's dependent on kids with only a couple seasons of 150+ game rigors under their belt, and an organization with little depth to deal with injuries and a likelihood to want to make some late season trades with an eye to the future. 

Enjoy the .500 but don't expect the .500.  

Is the Nats lineup good?

The Nats have scored 5.4 runs per game in the first quarter of the season.  That just isn't good - it's second best in baseball good. But to Nats fans this feels very weird. Sure they could be better than average if the pieces came through but second best in baseball? If you told me that last year I would have had at least some Dylan Crews fighting for ROY expectations. 

What do the stats say?  

BASE

Average - .244  t10th

OBP - .325 t9th  

SLG -  .411 t6th

HR - 50 t9th

SB -  42 4th

BB - 155 14th  

OPS+ 111 - t5th

These all say the Nats are a little bit overperforming but nothing crazy because they don't really have any holes in their offensive game. Like maybe they shouldn't be 2nd best but Top 5 is reasonable.  

Except for SB this is a huge change from last season.  What happened?  Well - Luis Garcia is still Luis Garcia but he's putting up better numbers at 1B than baseball's least favorite canine Nathaniel Lowe. Brady House is rounding into at least an average bat after struggling mightily last year. Lyle is better than Dylan Crews. Jose Tena et all are at least matching Josh Bell. But mainly Wood and Abrams are hitting like MVP candidates when last year they were solid and above average respectively.  Outside of Nunez replacing Garcia at 2B everything is better. 

FANCY

 Their launch angle as a team is improved (it could hardly be worse) but other than that there isn't much outside of some minor improvements that would suggest getting to average.  

 Some of this is likely the Nats just getting better because they have young players and that's what young players do.  Hit it a little harder, a little better, swing at fewer bad pitchers. 

RELATIVENESS

But here's probably the kicker.  The usual way a baseball season works is April is the worst month for hitting then teams heat up until the end of the season when a combination of not trying, resting for playoffs, and kids brought up bring down the stats again. There are vagaries that can affect this but this is the general way of a season. 

In May 2026 the Nats have been hot in the first third of the season jumping up from .718 to .799 in OPS.  The league as a whole?  Down from .715 to .688. I can't say this is unprecedented but we haven't seen it in recent years. So while the Nats have gone on a hot streak baseball itself has gone dead cold and a team that was about average in April now finds itself in front with a good chunk of the reason being other teams flubbing their expectations. 

WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN

For the Nats and their offense - it's still early (remember our Memorial Day pledge for when stats count) but it looks like they are better and the terrible offense of 2025 is at least average thanks to some bounce backs and growth. Expect them to land where you'd expect an average offense to be over the past few seasons. 

For MLB I don't know. Like I said - we haven't seen this.  In April the average OPS was .715.  In May that would rank 9th.  That itself undersells what's going on as the gap between 9th and 10th is over 20 pts.  That's big. Teams are just not hitting.  If that's a real thing and there's a new normal, well then the Nats would seemingly benefit from just getting a better from awful.  It's not about being some universal best, it's all about relative best. 

My guess is though the season will find the Nats drifting down to around the 10th+ range, both as Abrams and Wood settle, as their runs scored match their stats, and as other teams shake off this weird early funk. But still Top 10 ish is better than expected and lends some hope to what 60 days ago looked pretty hopeless.  

 

How real are the starters?

The Nats have had a mixed bag from their starters in 2026 which honestly is a good thing considering "big bag of just crap" was a reasonably good expectation. Foster Griffin is pitching to much better results than anyone could have hoped for. Irvin and Cavalli are hitting about where you think they would. Mikolas and Littell are struggling even with PJ Poulin doing some "Relief starting" in their place. But it;s still early and a game or two in one direction or the other can really effect how things look for these guys.  Which of these results is "most real" and which ones are likely "fake"?

 

REAL 

Jake Irvin - mediocre back of the rotation innings eater. 

Last year Irvin struggled mightily but all his stats are back to 2024 levels. Which is to say not as bad as it looks but also not inspiring. His fancy stats do suggest something better than his ERA but I wouldn't try to read too much improvement into that. His xFIP is middle of the pack but his xERA being down a bit further. xFIP is "in a vacuum"  xERA is in part "with the team you got". He's good enough to put in a rotation but if you are hoping he'll be a Top 3 guy that's a stretch. The question set by the last two seasons - is he more a solid #4 or a hanging on #5? - seems to have the answer of "solid 5". His Ks and homers are probably going to get a little worse but some more outs with guys on base will offset some of that. 

Zack Litell - bound for somewhere other than the majors

Zack is a guy whose stuff has left him and has survived on guile and pinpoint accuracy over the past couple years. That accuracy is gone and the results of that is what you see.  A guy getting pounded. He's got one pitch working and it's a split finger so players can just sit on balls down and hope either the pitch or his wildness takes it out of the zone.  If you want to look on the bright side his last outing was by far his best but guys still hit him hard and got balls up in the air and he didn't throw strikes. 

 

NOT QUITE SURE 

Miles Mikolas - also out of baseball

Much like Zack Miles has been relying on a lack of walks to get him past his declining stuff. Unlike Zack, Miles is a wily multi-year veteran and has adjusted to his lack of accuracy by pitching down more and really upping his GB rate. That's generally good. The problem is when he misses he's getting creamed. If that doesn't stop neither does the trajectory out of baseball sooner than he probably wants. But if it does, if he can keep getting the GBs and cut the homers, well he should be perfectly serviceable. His ERA is already inflated by some crazy bad LOB% luck and should come down anyway.  But down to like 6 or like 4.5? That's what the homers will decide

 

FAKE

Foster Griffin - anywhere near ace

Since he's been overseas Griffin doesn't have a good expectation on normal so we're more reliant on fancy stats. His BABIP is too low to sustain and his LOB% is pretty high. This would be fine if he got a lot of soft contact but he doesn't.  He's hit pretty hard. He's going to give up more hits and give up more runs. The good news is that he should maintain his HR rate which is fairly decent.  He looks more like Irvin maybe slightly better. That's still a fine pick-up. 1 out of 3 ain't bad? 

 Cade Cavalli - middling middle 

Despite being 27 Cavalli's injuries means his experience is light, especially in the majors. His off speed stuff is near elite the problem has been the set up with a fastball and sinker that both have done nothing. That isn't new for the sinker but the fastball being off is what's causing the issue.  Maybe he's being too cautious with it? His HR rate has dropped like a rock despite in general getting hit comparable to last year. Given his experience and prospect status, I'll lean toward general improvement from what's been a fine but uninspiring early season and something more like 2 or happy to be your 3 type stats by year's end. 

 

Honestly - what to do about catcher?

 The Nats at catcher are currently the worst in baseball. In the previous two seasons they were 24th and 24th in wins above position, which tracks with what we all know. They are bad.  They haven't been the worst, thanks mainly to catcher being such a hard position that other teams were complete failures, but now they are the complete failure. Their issues at catcher might be the worst at any position in baseball*

Their main catcher Keibert Ruiz is hitting .182 / .203 / .303. Traditionally a minus behind the plate with the glove, he's managed to be actually decent this year but it's very iffy looking at defensive stats at such a small time frame. Still he'd have to have been turned into a defensive wizard to make up for his bat. Offensively Ruiz has never had power or patience and relied on putting the balls in play and getting hits to create value.  In the past few years though he can't get the ball up any more and he's lost his bats speed meaning he's become a very slow runner who hits weak ground balls.  That's a recipe for... well what you see in that batting line. 

Drew Millas is on the other hand a solid defender, or at least always has been, meaning there's a little less pressure put on his bat to perform.  Unfortunately he hasn't been able to get over even a lowered bar.  He's hitting .148 / .220 / .185.  Similar to Ruiz there's no power in the bat and this isn't something that will come around. He's 28 (over half a year OLDER than Ruiz) and he's historically never hit for power. There seemed to be some hope in 2023 & 2024 that he was a late bloomer and he'd be able to have some weak MLB power but those now appear to be flukes. He might do slightly better than this at the plate but he's also getting around an age you expect some drop off. 

 But the Nats brass anticipated such a problem and made a trade in the off-season for a "ready about now" catcher. Harry Ford has been a solid prospect in recent years and was blocked by the Cal Raleigh so was there for the taking and the Nats got him. The problem is currently he's putting up Ruiz/Millas numbers but in AAA .174 / .287 / .209.  It's the worst he's done in an extended time at the plate in his career and a far cry from his .283 / .408 / .460 in AAA last season. PCL or not that's a big drop. Worrisome his walk rate and k-rate both are going in the wrong direction.  He's not seen as good enough a defensive catcher to stick there for a career (there had been talk of trying him in the OF in Seattle) so there's no point in bringing him up with the hopes the bat catches up.  The good news is the guy just turned 23 at the start of the season so early season blip is completely likely. But that's only good news for the long run not for right now. 

At this point you look for anything and might that be Riley Adams?  Another questionable glove behind the plate his numbers at AAA are not inspiring, but at .216 / 326 / .378 they at least aren't incredibly depressing. He's has shown time and again he's not a major league hitter but at this point "decidedly below average at the plate" would be an improvement. AA offers a couple of interesting choices. Caleb Lomavita is one of those raw talents that you like but needs polishing in all phases of the game. He's not pushing anything in AA so a call-up would almost certainly be a negative. So we're left with Max Romero a 2022 draft pick of the Nats who has legit power, and a tendency to swing a miss way too much with no patience. Currently he's managing a touch more patience and a decent line in AA but history would expect him to get eaten alive in the majors with that whiff profile. 

That's the long of it. The short of it is they got nothing and honestly I got nothing. 

 Usually for a team in this position, you let this play out. But when you are absolutely the worst and you aren't trying to move forward with a true prospect then you gotta do something. You can't just be "we have no plan here other than to suck real bad". It's a terrible look that says not "we're making sacrifices for the future" but "we absolutely don't care".  The fans deserve at least a bit of effort from the front office here. Even if it's just a minor league contract stab at an old name or a trade for someone else's AAA no-name. Give us something that shows you know this is unacceptable. 

*Colorado's SS and the Angels' LF rank as the other possibilities.  

Monday Quickie - wait I thought the offense was good?

 Sorry it wasn't.  Moose outside shoulda told ya. 

This is what the offense looks like when Wood and Abrams aren't hot.  Pretty terrible, right?  Let's hope neither gets injured. 

The Nats have a record that looks pretty typical of a blah team. They get beat, but now blown away, by good teams and hold their own against everyone else. But it's still early enough I wouldn't read into that. I mean, they play the Cubs now instead of the first three games when things are really anyone's game and you don't expect them to take the series.  We'll see but the back half of May is shaping up to possibly be the important run.  Four more games versus the Mets - who if they are every going to get back in it will have had to go on a little run into those, three against Atlanta, three against a perfectly cromulent Cleveland team, and three against San Diego.  I feel like where they stand at the end of that will be a pretty good indicator of the season as a whole. 

But before that they got the Twins (bad but a little unlucky), Marlins (.500 ish), the Reds (maybe the luckiest team in baseball but the tides been turning recently), and the Orioles (stink!). This is the sort of run you want to end up better than you started if you aren't among the worst teams in the game. 

The Nats grabbed another arm - Zak Kent.  Just sort of a guy who can miss some bats.  

This is a real quickie this time. That's it. 

The James Wood timeline

 James Wood is 23 years old and after a disappointing finish to last season where he hit .223 with 7 homers after the break while striking out 105 times in 269 PAs, he's back to meeting high expectations. The early season is always full of wild variation (Currently a Nats team with Alex Call, Dom Smith, and Ildermo Vargas would be DESTROYING opposing pitching staffs) but Wood is the seventh best hitter in MLB by OPS+ and the 5th youngest in the Top 50*.  He's a guy you build an offense around and the assumption is the Nats will do that. They HAVE to or else what the hell are we doing here? 

If that's the case the Wood will start getting paid in 2028 and will probably need to be wrapped up no later than 2030 though the sooner the better. And if THAT'S the case then the Nats have no more four seasons to figure this out and anyone looking to get paid before the Nats decide to go in is likely going to be paid by someone else. 

I'm going to guess and say that won't be clear by the end of 2027 so anyone who's a FA after this or next year we should consider gone. This includes every FA pitcher (that's fine) and it includes Luis Garcia.  Luis is for the most part a perfectly acceptable part and he's actually still young (turns 26 in a couple weeks) but losing him probably won't be a big deal. 

The FA class of 2029 and 2030 are the issues. 2029 has CJ Abrams who is unarguably the Nats second best hitter and just an overall fun guy to watch. If he wasn't out of position at SS he's be an easy plus player and someone ELSE you build around. Even as is it's hard to see getting rid of him because the current third best hitter on the Nats is either likely flash in the pan Weimer or competent Daylen Lile.  There are other guys who might come up but there's no guarantees and CJ can hit in the majors. There's no doubts about that. The plan going into last year probably did have CJ traded away but it also had Wood getting a sidekick in Dylan Crews. If not him than Brady House or maybe a bounce back from Hassell. But Crews crashed, Hassell proved to be a AAAA type and House's development has been slow, if steady. Abrams be 28 in 2029 so he should have one solid contract in him.  Can the team afford to trade him? Wouldn't that just mean signing someone else anyway?  One good bat is clearly not enough. I think the situation dictates keeping Abrams as well with a long term deal soon. 

2030 is when Cade Cavalli hits FA. Now with a pitcher and this much time you can't really say much but right now he looks major league front of the rotation capable and he's the only non-temporary FA arm you have starting games .  Guys SHOULD develop. It'd almost be impossible for them not to. But who and when and how good? It's all up in the air. Still I'm not sure you sign Cavalli long term.  He's a pitcher. This is further off. And most importantly, the guy will be 31 in 2030.  A long term deal for a pitcher at that age is risky.  Not stupid like signing a guy at 35 for 3+ years but it's a gamble. This is one we're just going to have to watch and see if the situation forces the Nats to keep Cade as the guy bc either he develops into a top of the rotation arm or there just isn't anyone else.

 If you are like "this isn't a lot of building blocks, Harper" you're right. But the alternative to not signing Wood is a third rebuild in a row. The Nats punted on trying with this group as-is when they traded Gore (younger than Cavalli!) who if not better than Cade is easily more reliable.  That was an admission they weren't going to compete through 2027 and didn't want to pay Gore a big paycheck.  Ok but there has to be a timeline and a plan around that timeline.  Wood getting PAID feels like the timeline. You want to be competing when he's getting his money. How do we do that?  I think we start not by trading CJ but by signing him. After that though - it's a lot of prayers.

 

*Wood will be 24 on Sept 17th.  DET's McGonigle (13th) is 21 until August 18th, CIN's Stewart (16th) is 22 all season, KC's Jensen (37th) is 22 until July 3rd, OAK's Kurtz (49th) just turned 23 before the season started.  Wood beats out Cardinal rookie Wetherholt (41st) by a week.