Opening Day - Predictions and what not

I probably say this every March but March is my busiest month of the year for various work and personal reasons.  All I ever want to do is drive down the Florida and spend a couple lazy days watching some bad Spring baseball and guys I've never heard of and I've gotten to do that one time in like 25 years. So it goes. 

A lot happened in Nats world in the past week or so 

Josiah Gray got hurt again - a flexor strain that will cause him to miss at least the first couple months. He hadn't pitched for a while but you never know what's exactly suspicious in Spring, unless it's not seeing Ryan Zimmerman then having a reporter yell at you on social media that the team said he was on the back fields playing, which of course was nonsense.  Memories. Gray is under team control through the end of next year and his injury issues and relatively crappy pitching has kept his salary down, so I'm not writing off seeing him pitch again for the Nats, but I'm done thinking he could be any part of the future. 

We've gone over the Max/Trea trade a number of times but the zero they would end up with from that (Ruiz just packed it in after signing his contract. Gerardo Carillo and Donovan Casey never weres) might be the biggest single reason the Nats are where they are right now - rebuilding after a rebuild. 

 

Dylan Crews got sent down to AAA.  He admittedly looked awful in Spring (3-29, 11 Ks in 34 PAs) but it's also Spring and we've learned that doesn't really matter. What does matter though is the mediocre improvement he made over the course of last year with his last best month being a .225/.279/.375 line. As 2025 went on the "the fancy stats say he's good" narrative sort of went away as those drifted down to match his production. Something here is not right and his college numbers were too good for this to be his ceiling. Hopefully the new org can fix it. 

 

These two moves meant the Opening Day Roster was a bit of a mess.  Gray's injury opened the door for Andre Granillo a mostly middling AAAA reliever that has shown a couple flashes in the past two years, while Crews in AAA means Joey Weimer a 27 yo vagabond (the Nats are his 5th franchise) former mild prospect, starts in the majors. Both of these guys are Rochester but this team isn't deep. 

Nothing happened good with the catchers so we start with Ruiz and Millas. I hope Millas is the 1 but I'd expect a time share unless someone busts out.  

The Nats traded for Jorbit Vivas and he fills the last spot in the IF (with Garcia, House, Abrams, Nunez, Tena and Andres Chaparro). Jorbit is mostly just a guy, but has some minor league moments of interest and is still young.  Expect House and Abrams and Garcia to play everyday. Garica might shift around 1B/DH/2B but those hoping to see Abrams off SS should be disappointed. I'm not sure he played anything but that in Spring. 

This leaves the OF to Lile, Wood and Young. This is putting a lot on Young's shoulders defensively but Wood is your star and Lile forced his way into every day play last year. I thought they might try to DH one of those two but committing Crews to AAA ends that idea for now. 

The staff is Cavalli, Mikolas, Irvin, then you have to think Foster Griffin and Zack Littell leaving Brad Lord on the outside looking in. It's a weird thing to take a surprise gift starting pitching surprise and toss it back in the pen for guys like Griffin and Littell. But in general people were always pretty cautious on the idea of Lord the starter. If he can replicate his success in the pen then the back end of Beeter, Henry, and him has a chance to be pretty solid. The rest PJ Poulin, Gus Varland, Ken Waldichuk are guys who are also in the pen right now and likely mean the front end of the pen won't have much of a chance. Better hope that rotation is better than it seems and gives a lot of 5+ inning games. 

 

The Nats were trash last year and could be worse but likely won't be just because it would be tough to.  The hitting is more likely to be as bad, but leaving it in the hands of a bunch of kids means you can't definitively say that. Is Lile real? Can House click? Will Wood take a step to superstar? All things that can happen that would make the offense a bit better. Still bad but middling not offensive. And the dream of every team every year - maybe it all clicks? There's a decent ceiling here.  

The pitching doesn't have the ceiling of the batting but also was remade to fix the floor. Mikolas and Littell provide more security for usable innings above what they got from their starters last year. If Cavalli is ok then the pitching should be better even if Irvin is just a 5th starter innings eater and Griffin flops in his return. And as I said above, Lord, Beeter, and Henry should all be solid meaning at least part of the pen performs. Still it is a should. 

 With the floor of the pitching raised a bit, it's unlikely they hit 60/61 wins which is what their advanced standings (trying to pull as much luck out of the win totals as possible) had them at last year. I can see them at an earned win total in the high 60s. But that just puts them around where they were last year.

Unless the Nats get lucky in development or the performance of their kids this will be a dull long slog toward irrelevancy, with the goal of the season being the new organization identifying and shedding dead weight. See you in 2027? 

Prediction : 67-95 

Monday Quickie - Halfway through spring and what do we know?

 Mitchell Parker and Andrew Alvarez (unsurprisingly) was sent down to the minors adding clarity to the rotation.  It's funny but we'll talk about "we're not sure what's going on with the rotation" but 9 times out of 10 what everyone thinks will happen, happens.  It's just Spring talk.  The Nats brought in Littell and Mikolas and Griffin to start. Cavalli will start. The 5th slot is likely Irvin's until someone, like Herz or Gray or Susana or Williams, shows themselves to be good and ready, or until he busts and Lord takes over.

On that end Gray has looked good in a couple short outings this spring and is on the quickest time frame, likely starting in AAA just to stretch out. Herz just had his first pen session so is a while off, Williams and Susana still not throwing off the mound. Lord seems fine.  Irvin though has pitched ok too so it doesn't seem like he'll bomb out and lose his spot which can happen to fringy guys in Spring because vibes are as good as evaluation when dealing with mediocre players. 

 If we're talking about Spring in a "we don't know what to do, we'll let Spring decide" way, (which is sort of how Cavalli got the Opening Day start) Clayton Beeter looks like he's setting himself up for a closer role (better yet a shut down 7th/8th guy but you know how these things go).  But  Henry has looked good to. A lot of guys are hitting poorly - sorry no catcher is doing well and we haven't had a decision make itself on DH/1B. Seaver King is having a nice Spring but I can't imagine they'd push his clock up based on a few Spring ABs with a team going nowhere soon.

I guess the question is whether Jacob Young looks ready for his role as likely 3rd but possibly 4th OF after bruising his wrist but he's already taking swing so one would assume he'll be a go for Opening Day. 

The big question remains Catcher. Let's see what happens there the next two weeks.  

 

 

Monday Quickie - Spring has sprung

It feels weird having a Spring without the Post or MASN telling us what's up. Having to go by Zuckerman's updates or official MLB news. 

Anyway Zack Littell signs with the Nats which is good for the Nats but a bit weird. Well maybe.  Littell was a reliever that got coverted to a starter in 2023. He was pretty solid in his half season there and in 2024 and put up a good ERA in 2025.  That masked a pretty mediocre pitching effort though. If you were to describe his pitching it would be "I'm going to put a lot of balls in the strike zone. I'm not going to walk anyone and when I do want you to chase you'll do it but I actually don't make you miss on those chases and what you do hit you hit hard"  It's a weird combination that relies on the fact most balls put into play are outs and is one of those things when guys can hit him hard enough the whole thing will come apart fast.  Like "my last season in the majors I started 7 games and had an ERA of 8.50" fast. But at only 30 you wouldn't think now is when it happens. So why wouldn't a team take a chance on this guy for their rotation. Likely to throw 180 fair innings - that has major league value.  I'm a bit confused. Like you'd want to give a promising rookie a shot over this pile of mediocrity but you also just need arms. You always do! 

Anyway the contract includes a mutual option which is good because it may make him tradeable if he surprises to start as opposed to Mikolas that's just an old pitcher trying to pitch well enough to get another deal in 2027. It's a good move for this team so I can't complain but it does leave the question of "aren't there too many starters now?"  That's fine to me.  That's a good question to have, even if it's just "aren't there too many mediocre starters" Like I just said - you always need arms. The rotation will be interesting in how it sets up. 

Really I'm kind of worried they let Lord, who surprised last year on a team that should now be looking hard at every stroke of good luck, fall back to the pen or into AAA for seasoning or whatever. 

Anything to watch this year record wise?

In short, no.  

Longer :  

The vagaries of timing and injuries mean some of the true hitting stars of the era like Trout, Bryce, Freenman and Machado are between milestones, while the slightly older players either couldn't stay stars (Cutch, Longoria) or petered out entirely (Adam Jones, Pablo Sandoval, Jason Heyward). Meanwhile on the pitching side it's becoming harder and harder for guys to get wins or honestly to get to the majors at an age early enough to challenge things. Do they break more often too? Seems like it. 

Offensively 

No one is near 3000 hits with Freeman having the best chance in 4+ years or so. Arenado should get to 2000 this year. 

Stanton is two years away from 500. Judge should go over 400 this year and if you like guys going over 300 homers - this is your year.  Along with Ohtani we should see Marcell Ozuna, George Springer, Mookie Betts, Matt Olsen  and the forgotten star Jose Ramirez all cross that mark. As well as very likely Lindor and quite possibly Alonso. 

Jose Ramirez and Ozuna should also both knock in their 1000th run this year along with Eugenio Suarez.  

In less impressive stats expect Paul Goldscmidt to strike out for the 2000th time, and pass into 8th place all time this year. Lots of guys climbing this list if that's your thing. 

On the Mound 

There was an outside chance we could have been looking at Verlander hit 300 wins this year but an injury in 2024 and bad luck in 2025 means he's at least 2 years away, if he has that in him (I'll bet anything over 10 wins this year brings him back)

Kenley Jansen should get into 3rd place all time in saves showing you want the gap between Rivera/Hoffman and next really means. Chapman should get his 400the save as well.  

Max won't get close to 300 wins but he'll get his 3500th K this year and will also pass into the Top 10 all time likely ending the season 7th (and Verlander should be 6th)  Kevin Gausman should get to 2000 this year.  

 Max should get to 3000 IP this year  

Recent drafts revisted

In our quest to look forward we often can only remember the latest things. For the Nats that means looking to who they could draft in 2026 and checking up on last years #1 pick Eli Willitis.  But the development of the next great Nats team, if soon will rely on the last few drafts. These are the ones I glossed over in my "why did things go wrong" as I was talking about the bust starting in 2020. But it's when the team took a renewed effort into getting these things right and it's worth looking back to see what the Nats did pick up and where they are standing now, starting in 2021. 

 

2021 

(1-11) Brady House  (2-47) Daylen Lile (3-83) Brandon Boissiere

Rest : (7-203) Jacob Young  (10-293) Darren Baker (12-353) Andrew Alvarez 

The 2021 was the first year they went from the old 40 rounds to the current 20 and it gave the Nats their what looks to be their best draft since 2016. House and Lile should both start for the Nats in 2026 and Young could as well, and if not fits in at the 4th OF.  Alvarez is a now older AAA SP who in the vein of Irvin/Parker came up and did well but no one expects much of. Baker is a slap-hitting org guy who got his cup of coffee presumably as a favor to his dad.  

Saenz is a name I recall that you could see as just an arm that comes up

 

2022 

(1-5) Elijah Green (2-45) Jake Bennett (3-84) Trey Lipscomb

Rest : Brad Lord (18-531) 

And they followed it up with a draft that seemed to break the team. Green while still young (22 this year) can't make enough contact and is doing damningly poor for a Top 5 pick. You can't miss so badly with this pick. Bennett had to quickly get Tommy John and was just traded to Boston for a livelier arm. Bennett's not a bad bet but entering the "prove it" age with 45 innings in AA whereas Perales has a couple more years of building. Swap made sense for both teams. Lipscomb was the best they had ready for a while but he's not a major league player. Lord is probably going to be the best of the bunch a true diamond in the rough pitcher that Rizzo's team developed? Anything can happen!

Riley Cornelio, who I mentioned last post was drafted in the 7th round here and could have a place with the Nats 

 

2023 

(1-2) Dylan Crews (2-40) Yohandy Morales (3-71) Travis Sykora 

Rest : Uhhhh

Crews' biggest issue is not his performance (mildly disappointing production but not out of line and with promising fancy stats) but the performance of those drafted around him. Skenes is a superstar, Langford has been a solid all around player for 2 years, Jacob Wilson an All-Star. Rhett Lowder looks like an ace if he can be healthy. Nolan Schanuel has been a useful starter for two years. Kyle Teel looks like a long term answer at catcher. And Matt Shaw should be getting another go round as a starter but Alex Bregman grabbed his spot.  That's 7 out of the Top 15 picks having better career starts than Crews and a few other were HS guys who are ready to make their mark. So did the Nats get it right or wrong here? He's no Elijah Green but in context it could be a huge miss. We're waiting. Yohandy is a solid bat that's going to get a chance at some point and the same chance will be afforded Sykora is a well-liked arm. 

 But the draft is very "Rizzo special"  with more guys who should be out of baseball than even be organizational depth. 

 

2024 

(1-10) Seaver King (1-39) Caleb Lomavita (2-44) Luke Dickerson (3-79) Kevin Bazzell

 Rest : TETT (Too early too tell)

Seaver King is a work in progress with everyone loving his make-up and skills and waiting on the production to follow. Think about Dickerson the same way but less production and more projection as he's just turning 20. Lomavita and Bazzell are both C.  Bazzell isn't hitting so far, and Lomavita is but it's hard to see him make it as a catcher and he might not hit well enough otherwise. These are the guys that make up a lot of the Nats personal Top 20 and as you can read it's not because they forced their way in.  The other drafts have just left spots open for guys with more question marks that can't be answered with "No"s. Of course I won't deny were getting REAL early in guys careers here - first full minor league season. 

 

If I were to take an overview the 2020 COVID draft and 2021 drafts seemed to work out for the Nats in whatever approach they took but the 2022-2023 were back to the big swings that left the minors devoid of depth in search of stars. Great if you hit, troubling if you don't. 2024 seems like it might be the same but I won't land judgment there just yet. 

This is why the Top 20 otherwise is mostly trade returns. The recent years were pretty weak. If you are looking for a miracle, a Nats team competing in 2028, look to the names of the guys you have heard before - the major leaguers, guys like Susana, and names here like Sykora and hope they nearly all work out. Hope for a C to quickly emerge from the deep pool of questions - Ford, Lomavita, Bazzell and yes, Millas has a half-year to do it. Because that's the only way it'll happen. There isn't a next wave coming after this. There's a break coming before we get to Willitis and say 2029 and beyond and if that all doesn't happen that next group post-break will include guys that this group brings back in trade. 

Monday Quickie - Hello? Is anyone out there?

Not you guys but Nats news. Anyone care? 

Zuckerman is doing his thing over at Substack asking a good question - who's going to be the closer.  I'd bet on Clayton Beeter, who I like in part because it's unlikely the Dodgers (a great minor league operation) and Yankees (a minor league that readily develops decent relievers) are both wrong about the guy having solid skills. Cole Henry could also be the choice as a long time org favorite. But given that closer doesn't matter as much as using the best guys in the best spot maybe you let a Drew Smith have it and use Beeter and Henry when you need them? This is more a contract question for these guys than what's best for the team because whoever gets the role can get more money.  

If that race doesn't get you going, the "excitement" in Spring turns to the kids. Watching Eli Willitis a legit prospect get his first major league camp swings in is a real thing to be interested in, but it'll be at least late 2027 before we see him, one would think.  So we're relying on Riley Cornelio (think budget Brad Lord) to be the breakout Spring player? Yikes.   

This is one spring where I'd actually be happy about getting excited about a random guy doing real well.  Why not? 

Drew Smith and lingering questions

 The Nats brought in Drew Smith.  He just went through his second Tommy John but says he's fully recovered.  He's been a live-arm guy who has always outperformed his fancy stats.  If one was to theorize it could be because his fastball is fantastic and when he needs to dial it up to get an out he can do it. But his other pitches aren't good and when all you can do to succeed is dial up the fastball well, that's how you get a guy with two Tommy Johns and under 200 IP over 6 seasons of pitching. 

As a minor league deal it's fine and I guess the Nats have reached the time when they feel thy can pick up bargains. Will they make many more moves? I doubt it but expect a few more here and there.  Maybe a veteran catcher.  Maybe a DH.  Another reliever.  Not anyone that would excite you but gap fillers. 

The signings aren't going to be the focus of the Spring though.  Instead we should be focused on these questions

Will CJ Abrams be here on Opening Day?  The Nats are in rebuild mode with an aim to have the #1 minor league organization in baseball.  It seems pretty clear that trading Abrams, with limited control left, would be a way of getting there.

What is the plan at Catcher?  Ruiz has the money but he's been literally unplayable in recent years.  Do they start with Millas?  Ford? Or is there a vet out there they will throw back behind the plate at first?

What's the DH/OF situation?  Are the Nats having a set OF?  If so who is in it?  Do they go Lile/Wood and forgo D or do they give Young another shot.  If the OF is not set then what's the rotation plan for DH?

What's up with the hurt arms? Josiah Gray should be pitching in the Spring and we'll get a sense there.  Will we hear anything about Herz or Williams, who have been moved to the 60-Day DL? And how does this factor in the projection for the rotation?

Ok Spring is here.  Well Spring is there in Florida.  Let's get started.