Monday Quickie - The Three-Quarter of a Billion Dollar Man

Juan Soto is awesome. 

Juan Soto is very young. 

Juan Soto is about to go from very rich to unfathomably so. Buy an island house to buy an island. 

Juan Soto was really bothered by the events of 2022. That's the truth because I can't otherwise explain how this guy hits .242 for a season. 275? Ok bad year. .242?

Anyway the Yankees and Dodgers in the World Series.  It's the teams that spend the most in the biggest markets so it should draw eyeballs and media interest. Some people hate this. The biggest markets ALWAYS get the eyeballs and media interest. Not all teams have owners that want to (or very rarely "can") spend a ton of money. Take whatever view of it you want to.

Who do Nats fans root for (if they wish to root for anyone)? Probably depends on how you feel about Juan Soto post Nats and the Yankees. Clearly if you hate the Yankees and/or Soto you are probably rooting against them. If the Yankees aren't your least favorite team and you hold no grudges against Soto you probably are rooting at least for him, and thus tangentially for the Yankees.  

If neither of these hold true, things get more wonky.  You may hate the Dodgers a bit more with the Nats running into them in the playoffs a couple times. Although they did beat the Dodgers on the way to the title so how much can you hate a team you are 1-1 against? You may be a "root against any NL team" person or a "root FOR the NL" person. You may love Ohtani. (easy to do)  or Aaron Judge (a bit less likely but he isn't really hateable just bland, but the guy is a physical phenomenon  He's not a lumbering beast. He just a 6'2" guy scaled up by 15%). You could like someone else - probably Mookie, though Stanton is fun as just a "swing big hit ball hard" guy.  Kershaw? OK, everyone has their kinks. You could hate the Dodgers for the go nowhere trade for Ruiz/Gray that sent off Max and Trea. You could be a former Orioles fan still harboring anti-Yankee sentiments*

If you don't want to follow the series that's fine too. Hell you might shut down after the Nats do.

Anyway this kid is excited. 15 years is a long time to wait.

*Though it's fun to think it's been 20 years now of Nationals. Anyone 25-30 or younger are very unlikely to be a "former O's fan" thing unless their parents did the "root for the Os in the AL, Nats in the NL" thing.

Offseason Position Discussion : Catcher

The Nats had a long-term plan at catcher.  Ruiz's performance over the past couple years have called that plan into serious question.  After being signed long-term Ruiz put up one of the worst statistical defensive years we've seen at C in a while (for whatever that is worth) and this year he was well below average at the plate. Does anything now change because of it?

Presumed Plan : 

Ruiz with Millas and/or Adams as back-up.

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

Ruiz has that contract. He'll get every opportunity to bounce back and starting 2025 as the presumed #1 catcther might just be "every opportunity".

Adams and Millas are who is here and ready. If you aren't going to replace Ruiz this is what you go with. But they each have issues so you can't rely on a single one. 

Adams is seen as a poor fielder. Previously it was thought he could platoon well with Ruiz bc he mashed lefties, but Adams crashed against them this year. If he's not a good fielder and not a good hitter against the pitchers Ruiz stuggles against, what is his use case? 

Drew Millas hit well in the minors again - this time in AAA, but that didn't translate into major league success. It was only a month so you can't really say anything for sure but as a 27 year old with no real prospect status it helps if you prove things right quickly. 

Makes sense in this case that you start with Ruiz at C, if he falters you swap in Millas for an extended look (Ruiz down to AAA to get right?) and Adams sticks around as a back-up / 3rd option depending on what's being done with these guys.

My Take :  

There's a lot of ways forward. You can just commit to Ruiz. He starts. He plays. You deal with it for at least a couple more years. If this is the case I'd jettison Adams and Millas and bring in a veteran catcher who can work with Ruiz on... well everything. 

You can follow the presumed plan hoping to hit on Ruiz or Millas in 2025 so you don't need to make a move (and then making a move in the off-season if you didn't hit on either, they both failed badly, and the Nats are closing in on contention) 

Or you can make that move now. You might be able to get Alejandro Kirk (FA after 2026) for something or maybe Wilson Contreras if St Louis is rebuilding (gotta eat a lot of $ though). If you don't want to trade because the return isn't great, there isn't really a good FA catcher this year. Higashioka who will be 35, d'Arnaud who's always an injury gamble, Danny Jansen is you want to take a gamble on this was an off -year. If you think a rental might be cheaper the best one next year is Realmuto who isn't going to be traded and certainly not inter-division.

I think the Nats have enough issues left to solve and are not quite in contention so they can let this go one more year.  Whether that means way 1 or 2 is up to how you feel about Keibert and Drew. I lean toward 1 just because the guy can make contact, and I like guys that make contact. I feel like you can make that work. I think last year's D was an aberration and while he may not be good he isn't immediately an issue that needs to be replaced. I also like the fact he's younger so him getting better seems more reasonable to me than Drew. I don't see the point of moving from hoping things pan out with this better once prospect to hoping things pan out with this older non-prospect.  If Millas wants the job, he'll get ABs.  To me, he'll need to force the issue if he wants a trial.     

Monday Quickie - on to the Position recaps

That'll be where we go from here - what we expect the position plans to be in the off-season. While watching and of course rooting for the Yankees to win it all. I assume that's what we are all doing. 

The "how the kids doing" series has to then end. But let's quickly run through the kids we really care about not covered (covered were Wood, Ruiz, Gore, and Abrams)

Luis Garcia Jr. - He had a really good bounce back year. It was pretty simple. He hit the ball better.  Harder, less on the ground. More mistakes then became homers and that was enough.  No seriously. If he hits like last year and say only has 10 homers his BA is pretty much what it was last year.  He's still not walking so he'd be below average again. It's pretty simple, if not easy, for Luis

Dylan Crews - He only played for about a month so grain of salt all this, but I'd call it disappointing but promising. The stats were disappointing for a guy that was supposed to be a natural hitter. But the fielding was good, the baserunning was good, and the hitting was really centered around one issue - not getting the ball up enough.  A 57+% ground ball rate.  He did have enough fly balls so that's why you saw a few homers but that leaves his LD% at an embarrassing 10%.  With his decent eye and his pedigree this seems like it will change. He also pulls too much but you can make that work. You can't make hitting a ton of balls into the infield grass work. 

Jake Irvin / Mitchell Parker / DJ Herz - One important thing to note here I've said before - Irvin ain't really a kid. He'll be 28 before next year starts. 

Irvin is a mediocre pitcher but by cutting down on his walks a bunch this year, he made himself perfectly acceptable as a 4/5. That's all he did. He might have a small improvement left cutting homers but minor league stats say this is Jake. That's fine.

Parker has better stuff than Irvin but he didn't quite find a finishing pitch in the majors. That was probably because he was working on not walking guys. He was a wild K guy in the minors. Things could swing wildly for Mitchell in 2025. He doesn't keep guys on the ground so the HR rate could bounce up. Or he could get wild again. Either of those and he's probably out of the rotation. Or maybe he does figure out how to keep his control and add more Ks to the mix and takes a step up. Or maybe he just stays the same as a 4/5. It was a good year bc he showed he can pitch in the majors. That's really what you wanted to see from a guy like Parker who's at best a middling prospect. But nothing here is guaranteed. 

Herz is the guy you want to focus on. Another Wild K guy in the minors, but wilder and more... uhh... "K"y. He showed he can K guys in the majors with junk and guys don't hit him well. He still walks too many guys and let's guys hit too many balls in the air. So the combination kept him from having a good year but if he can get one of those under control... this guy can be actually good. Unlike Parker his stuff really plays here so there's a lot more potential. However, before you get too high on him there was a real definitive drop in effectiveness when he threw more pitches. after pitch 50 guys started to smack him.  Third time around things got ugly fast. So the question does remain starter or reliever. (or modern dominant 4 inning 5th starter? Need a diff't bullpen for that)  But his stuff should let him have a major league role either way.  This is the most promising thing that surprised for the Nats this year. The introduction of a guy that could be a special starter, or a special reliever. Most likely he won't be but you want a bunch of these types bc they can't all miss.

Lucky or Unlucky : 2024

 Every year we do this - checking in where the team got lucky (or not) and maybe how that factored into this season and following ones.  This isn't to say a player if "lucky" can't continue on the same path, or if "unlucky" will bounce back. It's really just about expectations into this year and how those played out. Reasonably expect a guy to hit .280 with 20 homers and he goes from .310 35 or .250 10. That's what I'm talking about.

 

Lucky 

Before 2024 Trevor Williams recently peaked as a pitcher when the Mets moved him to the pen and he put up a 3.00+ ERA pitching in relief.  As a starter he had one good year back in 2018 but otherwise had been bad at the role for half a decade. Yet, he was Cy Young worthy for the third of a season he was healthy.  Yes, he did get hurt but his value for those 13 starts were well above what he had done in any full season since 2018.

When you throw three young guys with at best mild expectations into your staff the expectation would be one would flame out, if not two.  But Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker, and DJ Herz all performed well enough to hold down spots for the whole year. Like getting three straight scratch-off come up as winners. Only like $5 or $20 but that's still lucky.

Derek Law is a guy in a pen. That sounds like faint praise because it is. He just hasn't been special since his rookie year. In 2023 he had value but the numbers behind it suggested he wouldn't be good. But he was! Better than any year since 2016!

Some bench players will out perform when seen in small doses but Alex Call hitting .343 / .425 / .525  was crazy even if for ~100 PA.

Unlucky 

While last year's mediocrity tempered expectations, there really wasn't any reason to think Keibert Ruiz would continue to regress and become a flat out bad offensive player.

The flip side of Alex Call is Eddie Rosario .186 / .226 / .329 is surprisingly bad after an average 2023.  They caught the last year of his career. It happens. It's bad luck. 

Your #2 and #3 relievers both catching the low end of things (Harvey is having his ERA not match his in a vacuum performance thanks to some untimely balls getting through, Rainey really struggling to come back from injury) is low end bad luck but should be mentioned.

As Expected

Some free agents hit (Winker) some don't (Gallo) some are worth trying into their mid 30s because they are probably still good (Floro) some aren't even under 30 because they are probably never going to be good (Senzel).  Sunrise Sunset.

Young players can vary. Luis Garcia Jr seemed to have this in him. Trey Lipscomb may simply barely be org depth. Wood can come in and pretty much immediately be good. Crews can come in and look like he needs some more experience. Some variation is standard. 

 CJ Abrams had a wild ride but ended up kind of where you thought. Well not in AAA that was not expected but we're talking about season performance. 

Pretty much everyone else. Scour the team and it's hard to find anything unusual. This was the team that was built and it mostly

Similar to last year the Nats weren't trying to be good. Similar to last year the Nats caught more breaks than they didn't. Some BIG breaks pitching wise with Williams and the no downside kids, that lead to a lot of decent innings on the mound and a few wins more than the team was built for. Add in some aggressive baserunning and a bounce or two of game luck and here we are. 

DISsimilar to last year there is expected to be some improvements next year because the talent here is now real major league level talent. How good can Wood be? Will Crews step up next year? Who is CJ Abrams really? Can those young arms keep being decent? Just sticking with what the Nats have isn't a recipe for success. It's a recipe for a couple more wins with a lot of variance. Say expect 73 wins but 81 or 65 being possible. What's going to set expectations is what kind of FA moves they make. Make the right ones and that variation becomes enough to get the Nats into the playoff hunt if things break right for them.  But you have to expect SOMETHING right? Like so mid to upeer 70s is the floor of likely expectations unless like Gore needs TJ and Wood breaks his leg in an off-season ATV accident.

Who to root for - a little late

 Do you base all rooting interests on the Nationals? Would you base your rooting interest in the playoffs on the teams with the most National ties? If so... 

GONE TOO SOON

Braves 

Former Nats pitcher Reynaldo Lopez was a great starter for the Braves but they would shift him to reliever at the end. Mistake? They aren't still playing are they? Also on the Braves, Eddie Rosario. Yuk.  Glad ya lost

Brewers

Joe Ross was on the Brewers as the season ended. He did fine!

Astros

With Dusty gone the most Nationals person with the Astros is GM Dana Brown - who was the director of scouting until Rizzo took over the GM role. How'd he end up GM if his Expos/Nats scouting was... mediocre at best? Time and a stint with the Braves that was actually good.  Player wise it's barren on the post-season roster but Old Friend (tm) Wander Suero is in the org and was on the mound when the AAA team Sugarland clinched the AAA title. 

Orioles 

Daniel Johnson, former Nats draft pick who ended up traded to Cleveland was there. That's it 

STILL IN IT TO WIN IT

Yankees

You may have heard of a little player named Juan Tiberius* Soto. Only one but it's a big one.

Royals

The Royals picked up Hunter Harvey mid season to help with their playoff push. He got hurt very quickly. Other than that no Nats. 

Tigers

No Nats

Guardians

Lane Thomas was traded to Cleveland and was disappointing... until he crushed a bomb to open up the ALDS. 

 

Mets

Jesse Winker, another traded guy, is the obvious one but who could forget long time Nat Reed Garrett (9IP in 2022) finally finding his form for this Mets team?

Phillies

Trea Turner. Bryce Harper. Kyle Schwarber.  I mean this is basically the Nats team that could have been.

Padres

What happened on August 8th, 2024? That's when Carl Edwards Jr threw his one inning of major league work this year.

Dodgers

Blake Treinen and his talent at pitching good and somehow seeming bad is playing his fourth season for the Dodgers. Daniel Hudson, at Dodger before he was a Nat, has been in LA since 2022 and actually pitched a full season this year! (he was ok). Ever the resourceful team they've made use of a Nats' castoff. Anthony Banda, who has made an incredible journey in his career**, including a stop in DC last year, found himself at home in the LA bullpen.

If seeing former Nats makes you happy, you are rooting for a Phillies Yankees World Series

If it makes you sad, you are rooting for Padres facing either the Tigers or Royals.

*May not be his actual middle name 

** drafted by the Dbacks, refused, drafted by Milwuakee, traded to Arizona, made his debut with Arizona in 2017 then traded to Tampa (2018-2020), DFA'd and traded to SFG for cash (minors only 2021), traded to Mets (2021), DFA's then grabbed by Pittsburgh off waivers (2021-2022), DFA'd then traded to TOR for cash (2022), DFA'd, rejected assignment, signed with Mariners (minors only 2022), opted out, signed with Yankees (2022), DFA'd went to minors, elected FA, signed with Nationals (2023) in off season.  DFA'd spent season in minors. Elected FA, signed with Cleveland (minors only 2024), traded to Dodgers

Pete Rose - dead

I'd say RIP but that guy doesn't really deserve to rest in peace. 

Pete Rose ended his career with 4256 hits.  That's about 70 more than #2 Ty Cobb but almost 500 more (getting close to 15%) more than #3 (Hank Aaron if you didn't know). That's a lot of hits.  A couple of guys in the last 20 years have gotten within a 1000 hits.  Albert Pujols (3384) was close until age 34, and in fighting range until 37 but petered out like most players would as he hit his late 30s.  Derek Jeter (3465) was only about 70 behind at age 38, and was beginning to have a serious case for reaching 4000 if not passing Rose, but an serious injury in the playoffs in 2012 left him nothing but a "prove I can still play" comeback season before retirement. 

So how does one become the Hit King? It's simple, but it's not easy. 

Start early and play for a long time: Rose's first season was at 22, not ideal but early enough. He'd play for 24 seasons. 

Stay Healthy : Pete Rose played at least 150 games in 19 of his first 24 seasons, and in one of those he was healthy baseball was just on strike. He played the most games of anyone in baseball history.

Bat Early in the lineup: If you leadoff you will have over a season about 35 more PA than if you bat 3rd, about 70 more than if you bat 5th. The first number is extra season over the course of a 20 year career, or like an extra 200 hits. Rose batted leadoff in about 2/3 of his games, about 1/4 in 2nd and nearly all the rest in the 3rd slot. He had the most PA than anyone in baseball history by almost 2000.

Hit well : all those PA don't matter if you are a scrub. Rose hit .303 for his career, and .315 over a SEVENTEEN year stretch. He averaged 206 hits a season from 1968 through 1979

Don't walk too much: Rose could take a walk when he wanted but preferred to hit, and his walk rate was around 9-10% during much of his career.  So despite crushing the competition in plate appearances. He was a modest 14th in walks for a career. 

Surprise a little at the end : When you get old teams generally are fine getting rid of you after a bad year or two. That means two bad seasons after like 36 can pretty much end your career if you aren't tied to a contract. Pete had his first real off year at age 39 in Philly (his first below average year at the plate since he was 23) and could have been set up for a drop in playing time but he bounced back to hit .325 in the strike year.  He was again off in '82 at 41 and flat out bad in '83.  

Get close to a record : That would have probably been the end but he was at 3990 hits at the end of 1983.  Montreal signed him mostly to get the 4000 hit bump and when they got that and his bounce back was more of a barely noticeable rise they traded him to the Reds to finish his career. The Reds would give him his chance to get to Ty Cobb. Rose would rise as much as he could to the occasion. In his month with the Reds in '84 he hit .365(!) and in the following year he began focusing on walks. Despite hitting .265 with his power long gone he managed to have an average offensive year because his OBP was nearly .400. Not great for a 1B but for a guy chasing a record for a middling team it was ok

Refuse to quit : The one thing I'll admire Rose for, which I admire in any player. Refusing to walk away when it's clear you aren't the same player you were, refusing to step aside until the game is ripped from you is a quality one needs to achieve the highest numbers. While I don't care about the chase I do say play until you can't because you aren't getting another chance. Pete did that. While his modest homer power died early around age 31, he was still a doubles machine until age 40. But in that second off year in 1982 it was clear he was just a singles hitter who couldn't play the field. Some guys let pride or shame screw with them. Rose definitely did not feel shame

 

Is there anyone close to Pete now? Manny Machado thanks to a career starting at age 19 is in range but isn't the high average hitter Pete was so will slip further behind even if he plays to 40. Same generally goes for Bogaerts, Bryce and Betts, all in the general area but not healthy and/or not high average hitters. Luis Arraez is probably the best prototypical singles hitter but got a late start so basically can't afford an off year if he's to keep pace.  

There are three interesting possibilities - as much as anyone can be for such a ridiculous target. Ronald Acuna has 815 hits at age 26 (Rose 899) thanks to a two year head start. He's show he CAN hit for high average (.337 last year) but is extremely injury prone you can't see him getting those PA he needs. Vladdy Jr. also had a two year head start and is well ahead of 25yo Rose at the moment 905 hits to 723 hits. He's also been very healthy playing nearly every game now for 5 straight seasons. But while he can hit for average he bounces around as likely to hit .270 as .310.  No the best option is the obvious one. Or let's say the obvious JUAN

Juan Soto had  a three season head start and has 934 hits putting him over a full season better than Rose at the same age. While Soto has had off years no one doubts he could hit over .300... if that was his goal. But Juan also has real power which both lends himself to hitting lower in lineups and lends him to "settle" for hitting like .285 with 40 homers instead of .325 with 25. He makes that up by leaning into something Rose leaned away from, taking walks. While it would be interesting what would happen if baseball told Soto to go for the record, it's likely bringing in more value by smashing homers and getting on base will drop him behind Pete by age 30.

Monday Quickie - The more things stay the same, the more things change

The Nats season is over. They finished 71-91 which is the same record they had last year, but while the numbers are the same, forward progress was clearly made. Last year, they were arguably a low 60s win team by various measures that somehow found itself over 70. This year they were the low 70s win team that they ended up as.

Results like 2023, where the W/L don't match the stats can be caused by "coin flip luck". You happen to get a few more dribblers through with men on base. The opponent hits a few more fly balls to the deepest part of the park. Results like 2024 can also be caused by luck though. Several players finding themselves having years that might be the best of their career, or that one late career bounce back, all at the same time gets you deserved wins but wins you can't count on continuing on*. Trevor Williams pitching like a Cy Young contender for 1/3 of the season can only be described as shocking, but nothing else felt out of order. Rather it felt like the Nats having one of those season where more works out than doesn't and when it's mostly with kids rather than vets beating expectations, you can't dismiss that. Maybe you also can't count on it, but you can certainly get interested in what the future can hold. 

Offensively this season was quietly a bit worse. The Nats made a few bets on veteran bats, some good some inexplicable (hey it's Nick Senzel's music! Which, by the way, is a sad trombone). Like Candelario last year, one really paid off in Jesse Winker. You had a couple guys do well last year it was Thomas and Garrett this year Wood and Garcia Jr. But whereas last year the rest of the lineup was mostly guys below average with one or two stinkers, this year the Nats had a lot of the latter. Last year only Alex Call got more than 200 PA (439) and put up a OPS+ under 85. This year Keibert Ruiz did it (485), Joey Meneses did it (313), Vargas (303), Gallo (260), Rosario (235), and Lipscomb (211).  That's a lot of stink!

But you can certainly argue that outside of Ruiz none of these results were all that important, and while Thomas and Garrett doing well last year was nice, Wood and Garcia Jr doing well this year was important. So the offense was worse but in a way you feel better about where it can go. 

On the mound the Nats improved across the board. Last year the pen was a solid three guys and then a bunch of terrible choices. This year their FA signings worked out well and they watched as almost a full pen of guys threw... well mostly just ok. But a 4.50 ERA is world's better than a 6.50 ERA. All in all this helped elevate the Nats from "really bad after the top" to "below average mix". That kind of improvement matters but probably only would have balanced the lack of hitting by itself. 

No the huge difference was in the starting pitching.  The Nats were bad last year with a lot of bad starters being bad. This year they were still not good but resembled the "rest of the lineup" from the 2023 Nats. A lot of below average guys being below average. Irvin, Parker, and Herz didn't have good results, but they were good enough to keep the team in the game and that slight difference was big enough to matter. And much like with Wood and Garcia, the fact that it was two younger pitchers doing that in Parker and Herz makes you think maybe the Nats can get lucky and one will make the next step. 

We'd be remiss if we didn't talk about the baserunning. The Nats lead the majors in SB and while their success rate dropped it still managed to be around 75% which is about what it needs to be to be a positive. Add in the general disruptiveness of that game plan and it's another new plus.

Defense? They were worse. You might think Jacob Young would have made an impact but him and Call (another excellent fielder) only played like 16% more innings this year. Meanwhile you lost all of Candelario's contribution at 3B and he was very good. While Garcia looks better guys like Abrams and Thomas took big steps back from already not great positions. This is one place for concern moving forward as while Crews does appear to be good, Wood does not. The defense will likely be bad with a couple of bright spots, rather than the preferred, good covering a couple of holes. 

But look at the scoreboard and see how much that matters. The defense didn't stop the Nats from being much better and that will likely be the case again next year. Of course now we get to the main point.

The Nats season wasn't good in a vacuum but it was good for the future. You have the pieces for the potential next run either here (Ruiz, Garcia, Abrams, Wood, Crews, maybe Young or one of the late season guys, Gore, Brzykcy, maybe Irvin, Parker, Herz or Ferrar) or coming soon (House, Yohandy, Lara, Grissom Jr, maybe Lile). The team is ready to try to make the next step. But the next step is big. 

The Phillies, Braves and Mets may be at various stages of their competitive cycles but the simple truth is in 2024 they were all at least 15 games better than the Nats and it wasn't by luck. They are that much better. The Braves and the Mets are the teams fighting for the playoffs. That's the first goal line. High 80s in wins.

If the Nats want to simply get better they can probably follow a similar plan to this year with maybe grabbing a more reliable FA SP to at least take up an inning eating role. Do that, watch the kids improve (or not) and come up (or not) and probably win 5+ more games. But that's only 75-80 wins, still a good bit from the playoffs. No, if they want to feel like they are really making a push they need to be serious actors in the FA market. They have been before, so we can have some hope, but times change. Already they have started this run differently by not grabbing that Werth-like big FA in assumption that the team would come together. What else might be different? 

2024 was not exactly what you wanted as a Nats fan but it was probably what you could reasonably expect a positive year to be. You didn't have a lucky run to .500, the Nats weren't really ever playoff relevant, beginning their slide well in advance of when playoff spots are thought about, and they didn't have a breakout star. But more happened good than bad and the kids got to the majors on time. The team became a team you could watch and expect a competitive, if not exactly winning, baseball game. 

Now what you can reasonably expect for 2025 in my mind, is a couple big FA signings and a team that looks like a good bet for .500 while it watches the kids and figures out where the last couple pieces need to be to make the playoffs. Will we get that? Let's find out.

 

*Wanted to note with Zaidi out in SF this is EXACTLY how SF won 107 games a few years ago. Buster Posey, Evan Longoria and Alex Wood had their last good seasons. Belt, Crawford, Ruf, Duggar, Gausman, and DeScalfini all had their best years ever (ok best 2year block for Belt).   No one basically underperformed. It was what happens when EVERYTHING goes right for a team that should win like 80-85 games. All those +1 WARs add up into something crazy.

How are the Kids doing #3 - MacKenzie Gore

The short take on Gore's 2024 is that he got better but didn't become the ace the Nats hoped for. But probably most importantly he was healthy the whole year completing over 30 starts, something not given based on Gore's injury history. If this is all he is - a solid dependable #3 type - then that is enough, though the potential remains for more. 

The big difference between this year and last was a return to a more balanced repertoire. Gore kind of gave up on his change last year focusing more on his swing and miss pitches and control of those.  The result was an increase in strikeouts and a decrease in walks, as hoped but also an increase in home runs. Guys could guess what he'd throw. They didn't guess right often and his stuff was still good - his hard hit % stayed about the same- but when they were right they punished him.  This year he incorporated more changeups and the results were notable. A big drop in hard hit%, a big drop in homers, a big drop in barrels. Opponents were more off balance. Yes adding back in a pitch they didn't swing and miss much at meant they put the ball in play more and that means more hits but he was able to maintain his control. The control of power with roughly the same K and BB rate meant a better pitcher.

Where can Gore improve to take the next step? It's making a jump forward in control. Although he managed to improve his control last year, it was only from "this cannot continue" to "one of the wildest starters in the game". Maintaining that for this year was important, while adding back in his change, but if he's going to be a top of the rotation type he's going to have to cut it way down, by like half a walk a game or more. And it's a balancing act. If having more control means giving up more homers there a point where it won't be worth it. 

I'm not exactly sure he can make this step.  While the HR bump in 2023 was an aberration, he'd pretty much always kept the ball in the park, the walk issue has dogged him for a while. Simply having strong stuff kept it down in the very low minors. Guys would chase more. But that isn't the case now. Without a sense that the control can come I don't know if it's something we should expect. 

On the positive side though he really should be getting slightly better results this year and his ERA should be just on the other side of 4.00 as opposed to the higher end. 

As Gore is hitting 26 there's limited time for real improvement. One of the least talked about truths in sport is you generally show what you are very quickly. Gore's improvement shows importantly that he's able to put together the best version of what he is, but 2024 might be it. 

I'd say personally I'm satisfied with Gore. There is a LOT of value in a good healthy #3 type. Sure, I want him to be an ace, but that's probably not going to happen. I'd bet against it. What I'd now hope for is for him to continue to improve. Moving from a 4.00 ERA type to a 3.50+ ERA type that he should be able to do with some minor changes and better luck.  That's more of a solid if not exciting #2 and the type that can give the rotation stability. 

Gore won't be a kid after this year but how did the kid do? Pretty good. 

Things you should watch

While waiting for me to get less busy so I can do a couple more "How 'dem kids doing"

Right now in the AL the divisions are all but set. There's a "Yankees lose all, Orioles win all" scenario still in play but that's about it. Same thing for a bye between the Guardians and Astros*. It's all about the Wild Card where the Royals and Tigers are fending off the Twins and Mariners (we'll bring up the Red Sox Friday if they still matter) for the final two spots

Mariners @ Astros (afternoon game today)

Rays @ Tigers 

Royals @ Nats- Hey the Nats matter!

Marlins @ Twins

In the NL The NL West is still up for grabs and the Padres are making their last play. Basically needing the sweep they started off with the win. The Phillies are pretty much set as 1 or 2 though, and Brewers as 3. So the rest is the Wild Card where the Mets, Dbacks, and Braves are struggling over their last two spots

Padres @ Dodgers (late night baseball!) 

Mets @ Braves

Giants @ Dbacks

This weekend the Padres go to Arizona and the Royals finish in Atlanta for two series that are good bet to have some intrigue. The rest - Tigers are hosting the White Sox, Dodgers are at the Rockies, Mets in Milwuakee, Baltimore at Minnesota, and the Mariners host Oakland. 

Baseball really does have an advantage here over other sports with this end of the year lots of games that could matter thing that happens. It's fun!  

Player-wise not much. Ohtani got to 50/50 already.  Judge could hit 60 but isn't going to blow by it. FWIW - Judge and Ohtani will be the only ones to get to 50, Santander is next at 44.  Soto got to 40 for the first time in his career.  Kind of crazy though that we are in a world now where homers rule batting average and only 8 or so guys will hit over .300, but Judge is definitely going to be one and Ohtani might be another. Even if he hits like .295 he did steal 50 bases. These guys are so good. Also Bobby Witt (only 32 homers) is going to have one of the best non-MVP seasons in a while.

There will be no 20 game winner this year.  Both Skubal and Sale have a chance to get to 19. This could be the first season ever where no one tops 210 IP in the major leagues. A couple guys should (only need 5 1/3 but just a couple guys have a shot).  This is all just a past decade change. The four man rotation died in the 70s as did the "Everyone goes as long as they can" with the advent of closers. By the mid 80s things settled around 250-275 IP with a few outliers. That mostly held for 20 years then in the mid 2000s we saw another drop, presumably for 7th and 8th inning guys coming in. Innings stuck around 225-250 until about a decade ago when we started getting the "no third time around" rule coming in.  

What is this all for? Do pitchers dominate? Nope. Do we have fewer injuries? Doesn't seem like it. I guess a team would have an advantage if everyone else wasn't also doing it. And injuries are a set cost so we accept X many and scale the effort in each pitch to that injury level. Seems pointless to me. 

Again my re-framing of the SP role is that if you are only going to ask 5-6 innings of them, we should go back to 4 man rotations. There's never been a real indication that INNINGS matter, as opposed to pitches per start. Anyway watch some baseball

*Also I don't care about HFA through the playoffs.  Things happen.

Monday Quickie - Nats lose a bunch, Abrams demoted

 Since taking care of the Marlins and looking like shoo-ins for a lot of their seasons goals (ok MY season goals) the Nats have collapsed, losing 6 of 7. This all fits in with their general season feeling - good enough that they are not bad, bad enough they are not good. . The Nats cruise with a 32-22 record against teams under .500. This is a record you'd expect from teams around .500. They stall out with a 37-65 record against teams over .500.  This is a record you'd expect from the worst teams in baseball. 

What explains the discrepency? Is their talent level walking that much of a tightrope? Or is it random luck?  Eiether way with KC and PHI to finish the season that doesn't bode well for passing 2023. 

But of course the losses weren't the story of the weekend, it was CJ Abrams' demotion.  He had been struggling but no one is under any misconceptions that that might be the cause. The team didn't even try to suggest it. No, while it wasn't explicitly stated Abrams was punished for being out too late (8AM?) the night before a day game. 

If you are a vet you are given leeway because the idea is you understand what you need and don't need to perform. If you are performing you are given leeway because who really cares what you do if you produce on the field. But Abrams wasn't producing and isn't a vet. He gets the hammer. 

The Nats would have had a hard time suspending Abrams, especially if they didn't have any explicit rules set up which appears to be the case. But demotion seems like a bit much. Sit the guy for a series. 

They are probably thinking "oh it worked for Luis Garcia" and maybe it did but then again maybe Luis was having an off-start to his 2023?  And they sent Luis down to play, to work on things.  Even if it didn't seem like it in the stats, he might have actually done that. Abrams is just getting his nose rubbed in it. More importantly, as any parent or coach can tell you, what works in one case, at one age, in one situation, may not work in another. You have to be careful how you go about things each time and this was not the Nats being careful. 

The Nats play a weird "we're the boss" game at times. That doesn't work for everyone. Victor Robles may be blossoming outside the Nats.  Whether it works for Abrams we're just going to have to see, but directly going to "send him back to AAA" isn't where I'd have gone. That's something to build to and there isn't any indication that that is what happened here. Weaker still was Rizzo making this decision and not offering himself up for questions. Rizzo loves to be the man making the calls, he's lukewarm on being the one to take the heat for them. 

 If the Nats can win a few here there will be something else to talk about but otherwise this may be the going away impression of the season. That would be a shame both because the season was good, and a because it sets up a potential problem for next year for a team that wants to be all sunshine and lollipops going into 2025.

I come here to bury Corbin

Corbin pitched his second to last game in a Nationals uniform yesterday. Like many, many, MANY of those games he lost. He stinks. Get him out of here. 

I don't blame the Nats for Corbin being here in the first place. He probably was the best starting pitcher available that year. The contract was high but they probably had to go high to get him. That's what happens with best available guys. Yes in retrospect it feels like it was probably a year longer than it needed to be but we don't really have the knowledge of what was out there. Some thought he'd be great (not me), some thought he'd be good (me), few thought he'd tank (did anyone? If so, I'd like to see the proof).  It made sense. 

What didn't make sense is continually throwing him out there after it became clear he wasn't the same pitcher anymore. A very good 2019 season devolved into a bad short 2020, then a terrible 2021, and 2022, AND 2023 AAANNNNDDD 2024. In 2021 you could be hoping for a turnaround, in a year you expected to maybe compete. In 2022 you could be hoping to still get value from a long contract. In 2023 and beyond there really wasn't a reason to throw him out there other than to eat innings to protect young arms and the Nats didn't have any young arms to protect. (or a manager that would know how to do this either). He should have been gone going into 2023 let alone 2024. 

Of course I don't blame him for staying. Even with players I don't like I still say stay in the game as long as you can because you aren't getting another chance later. And if you are getting paid like a king to do it? No-brainer.  

For those that want to give Corbin a nod for 2019...  you are free to but note that being on that team doesn't mean he was integral.  Oh he was very good in the regular season. I've admitted that. But the Nats also cleared hosting the Wild Card by 4 games. Was he 4 games better than another pitcher? That's a big jump. 

His playoff record isn't as good as some remember. 

In the NLDS he did well in game 1, wild but avoided the big hit. They lost but it wasn't on him. This is unlike G3 where he came in to help relieve Anibal Sanchez and got immediately pounded into dust basically taking away any chance the Nats had to win. But he finished off his NLDS time trying relief again. This time in G5 and he held the dejected Dodgers down for an inning after Kershaw did his "Kershaw in the playoffs" thing. 

In the NLCS he started G4 and was the only pitcher on the Nats not to dominate the Cardinals. Seriously. His series ERA? 6.75. Next was Doolittle at 2.25. Then no one else gave up an earned run. Of course the Nats opened the game with 7 runs and had a 3-0 series lead so no one cared.

In the World Series he pitched an inning in G1 that was work but did the job. Then he started G4 and lost. He might have been chased in the first if Robinson Chirinos didn't bail him out. It was already 2-0 and he just walked the bases loaded but Chirinos swung at a ball to start then swung again at not his pitch up 2-1. Later Corbin would make it up to him by serving him a meatball for a homer. It was a lousy showing that tied the series back up. Corbin would come back though in G7 in his best performance of the playoffs to pitch well for three innings while the Nats clawed their way back.

Those innings ended up being his lasting impression for a lot of people, but it was really an up and down playoffs though and one that he could have been a goat for his NLDS start or for his WS start.

 He's not the worst pitcher the Nats have had. They've had a lot of bad pitchers. But he's the worst that they sunk more than a couple seasons of starts into. Like of those starters with more than 30 starts he's 7th worst (out of 31) in HR/9, 5th in H/9, 13th in FIP. But looking at those with more than 70 starts he's worst in H/9, 3rd worst in HR/9 (Gray and Fedde if you must know), 3rd worst in FIP. And that's including 2019 which is 200IP of Cy Young vote getting pitching. 

The takeaway from Corbin's career is that Corbin came and threw innings and they won a World Series and he was a small part of that because he was good. Then he stayed and threw more innings and got paid and lost and hurt the team for the next 5 years because he was bad. It's only a fair tradeoff if you think they couldn't have won without him, something unknowable really.

There isn't much more to say I guess. He's been an anchor on the team for 5 seasons. They are better off without him. If you want to tip your cap because he helped the Nats easily take the Wild Card slot or because his variable playoff performance ended with a high at the most important time, that's up to you. My cap is staying on my head.

How are the kids doing #3 - CJ Abrams

Abrams has shown the Nats his promise this year, but also has given fans a dose of the current reality.  Abrams has the talent to be a star, but a lot of players do (see : Green, Elijah) It takes something more than raw talent to make it and Abrams has yet to translate that. 

This year Abrams was one of the better SS in baseball for the first half. A BLISTERING June (.374 / .464 /  .663) helped secure an All-Star bid but since then he's been flat out bad.  And before you say "well he's been hurt" no he hasn't the entire year and how does that explain a May that was worse than any of the recent bad months? No, it just appears that Abrams could be an extreme streak hitter. When he's hot he's as good as anyone. When he's not he's pretty terrible. 

Ok but let's just say that's random luck this year. What if we took the year as a whole, what do we see? In general it's good news. He increased his power. Some of this was hitting balls a little bit harder and a few more in the air. Mostly though it was pulling the ball a lot more. His power is mostly to right center. While doing this did bump up his K-Rate a touch, he also increased his walk rate. With a BABIP almost exactly like last year the read is he's simply a slightly better hitter than last year. Most of the fancy stats agree. 

For those of you wanting stardom that's a bit of a disappointment. There was no big step forward, just a half-step shuffle from slightly below average to slightly above. He's still sporting a .240 average. He still doesn't hit the ball that well. He still relies on the legs to get a couple more singles to pump the average or leg out a few more doubles to help the power. He's still young so more improvement is possible but the rate is slow enough that you'd imagine topping out at 26/27 hitting like .250 / .320 / .460  with 28 homers. Perfectly good bat but not one that's carrying the team. 

Of course again this is "if the year is taken as a whole" if you prefer to look at April and June as the potential then what did he do there? One thing obvious is his LD% is WAY down. He was hitting like 25% in the first half and under 10% in the second half. He's also pumped up his FB% way higher. He's also not pulling the ball as much. If that's a choice he should mostly stop it. Pulling the ball and hitting his fair share of LD is where he found the most success. Of course counter examples are there. He hit line drives in May, pulled the ball in July. And if you look at April and June why aren't you looking at May, July, August and September? If you accept the highs as possible, you have to accept the lows too. That's why I lean more into "take the season as a whole". Less variable. A prediction is possible other than a shoulder shrug

Injuries? That's probably a better thing to hang your hat on than random hot months. If he were healthy he'd likely be hitting better. If he were hitting better the improvement would be more pronounced. If the improvement was more pronounced you could see a way that he improves like this every year to a star level. If he avoids more injuries. 

 We're spending a lot of time on the hitting because the fielding and running are cut and dried. He's a fast runner and if the Nats can help him be more judicious with his base stealing he'd be an extremely positive player on the basepaths. His fielding is very bad this year and even in the "take 3 years to get a feel" he's still a bad fielder. Three years in and the obvious answer is CJ Abrams should not be your shortstop.  Where does he go? There really isn't room in the OF. 3B is probably the answer (he does have a strong arm) though you'd have to re-train Brady House for SS and hope he's good. But it's a question that's not going to go away. You can work on it. You can get better positioned (maybe - they do a pretty good job of it now) but having this as a starting point is really pretty bad. 

Abrams is a player who needs to find his place but the effort should be made. At worst he's likely to be a decent bat without an obvious home. Given the DH issues across the major leagues he could probably land there and be fine. What's wrong with a guy with wheels and a little pop OPS+ing 125 from your DH spot? Nothing.  At best he's an All-Star here and there who is manning... somewhere. 

The good news is 2024 suggests Abrams is playable for the long haul. The bad news it's not at SS and  he's probably more a piece you use to build around someone else than build around him himself. But hey! You need all these types. If you can find a spot where Abrams is like your 4th or 5th best bat you are probably in a really good spot. And if he's a boom/bust player that's fine too. A lot of guys bust who don't have boom potential. You need guys to boom. The fact Abrams could is enough reason to include him in your future plans. 

Monday Quickie - the final run

The Nats are sadly done with the Marlins a team that they dominated this year (11-2) which helped them in their attempt to reach last year's lucky win total with a deserved version of it. Yes, without the Marlins the Nats look more mediocre (55-80) but you can't really do that. Or at least you can't do that and not pull out a team they did really bad against like the Padres (0-6) or Phillies (2-8) or Mets (2-8). The rest of the season is harder, but with 14 games left they should easily get to 70 wins. Beating last year would take going 5-9 also a better than even chance. This is the nice results you can have when you start the first quarter of the season .500. Everyone thank oddly fantastic Trevor Williams.

One thing you might have noticed is that the Nats have a sort of split.  They are one of a series of teams that can beat up the bad teams (WP% .571 or a 92-93 win pace) but get beat up by the good ones (WP% .380 or a 62 win pace) This puts them as a team that if made up like this again will struggle to get to .500 and of course then the playoffs. That's about as far as this analysis goes. They can get better by time. Young players getting better, etc. but why take that chance? Lerners - make the team better!

Everything about the Nats team this year strikes you as "this is what they are" they were a little unlucky in one-run games, but a little lucky in extras. They don't particularly favor RHP or LHP. They are better at home (35-39) than away (32-42). As the season winds down this is the narrative of 2024. Hot start meant they wouldn't be bad, kids came up and they have mostly been good. That was enough to keep them at the a decent pace after the hot start. Now it's about either:

1. setting up the team around these young players, or 
2. doing nothing and seeing what the young players do before committing money 

Nats fans have been patient and have accepted that this go around wasn't going to have the Werth-esque move of bringing in a high cost vet (or two!) in anticipation of getting better. But now you have a ~70 win team with a couple of players that people like to get better (Crews & Wood) a couple young arms introduced this year that also might improve (Parker & Herz) and various other young players that can also take steps forward - with various levels of probability that they do (Gore, Garcia, Abrams, Young, Ruiz, Tena). You could take the time to see if they don't need a lot of free agent help, but that could also put you in a spot next year where you are approaching 80 wins and .500 instead of 85 wins and fighting for a Wild Card. I know where most fans would rather be.

How are the kids doing #2 - Keibert Ruiz

Is "Yikes" an official baseball term? Because that's how I'd answer the question. After a solid rookie cup of coffee and a first year with some promise, the Nats committed long term to Keibert Ruiz as a catcher. In year one his defense seemed to fall off a cliff while his offense didn't really improve. Now he's not hitting, though his defense is not as egregiously bad. What's wrong? 

Well defensively, it's tough to say.  Defensive stats are hard to believe for a single year and require patience to get a real sense of a player's ability. You are constantly going on stats and eyeballs as best you can (see our discussion on Wood last post) but they are best served almost in retrospect, unless you are identifying outliers. Last year Ruiz looked like an outlier in the bad sense. This year he's passable and that agrees more with what we've seen other years. So last year was likely some sort of fluke but it does suggest that he's not a secretly great defensive catcher waiting to get out. He's a mediocre catcher as far as we can tell. Watching him I don't see any reason to disagree. 

Still catcher is a hard position to fill and if you can be average at the plate and averageish behind it, it's probably worth playing you rather than trying to find someone else. But Ruiz has not been average at the plate.

It appears also part of his approach has been trying to swing at more pitches, earlier in the count, and get them up in the air, preferably pulling the ball. In theory this should take advantage of his ability to make contact (still really good at that) but that has only lead to fewer walks, not more hits.  He's putting more balls in play and more in the air but doesn't hit the ball hard enough that that is a good thing. His HR/FB rate has always been low.

If Ruiz was a speedy OF or MI you could tell him to just scrap this and put the ball on the ground, but Ruiz is a slow catcher. Not slow for a catcher, but not speedy in general. That's not a long term solution for him. 

I don't know what is though. Ruiz's best ability is contact. If he wants to put the bat on the ball he will. But as baseball has emerged into the stats age it's become clear that that's not all that great a skill in terms of creating a production. You'd much rather have someone who misses the ball more but when they make contact it's loud contact. There's a balance of course but Ruiz is not there. 

There are two paths forward. First would be to keep trying this : Get it up in the air on both sides, and try to work on his bat speed and power so this matters. This doesn't seem to me to be a particularly promising path given you are working against his nature and he's starting to age into what should be his prime. The other would be to let him be the weak ground ball hitter he is from the right side and let things go as they will.  Neither path is promising but the latter path might let his contact skill get him to be an average bat overall. Maybe you GO for LDs and GBs from the right.  I don't know. The lack of bat speed and foot speed really doesn't leave a good solution. 

I'd say move on but the Nats aren't deep at C. Neither Adams or Millas seem much better and their previous hopeful Lomavita hasn't had a good year.  Maybe the drafted Bazzell will do something. He definitely has an eye.

I don't think there's a good future for Ruiz. He has a lot of PA under his belt and it shows what he is : A generally mediocre catcher and a bat that can make contact but with no pop. Still finding catchers who can even be average can be hard. If the Nats let him be him he can be an annoying hitter at the very bottom of a lineup. A guy you can't K who might turn on one from the left side. Accept the "no better than average" Ruiz for the next few years and get the most value out of him, rather than try to make him something he's not.

How are the kids doing #1 - James Wood

The most exciting prospect in baseball* Wood shot up everyone's charts in the last few years and when you are starting around 15 there isn't that far to go. #1 prospects have greatness expected from them. Is James Wood living up to that? 

My take would be yes. While occasionally there's a rookie that just comes in and steamrolls baseball, most need a little bit of a start first. Wood FEELS like he's having a slow start and yet I say that and he's got a line of .274 / .367 / .413 and is currently the best hitter on the Nats. If that's his starting point stardom is on the horizon. The only question is what kind of stardom.

At the plate the short description on Wood would be : He does strike out a lot (30%) but he walks alot too (12%) and when he makes contact it's so hard it's usually a hit. Assuming these numbers don't get worse, and you usually wouldn't think they would, he's a guy that will hit and walk and be an impressive producer. 

If there is any caveat it's that he is not hitting homers. His 162 game average would be like 14. This isn't so much about bad luck (HR/FB is a little low for his history but like 1 homer low) but that he is hitting a bunch of balls on the ground. His 57% GB rate is the highest he's had at any level. He's also not pulling the ball as much which could be another factor. It's tempting to blame the hitting staff, the Nats are known to focus on all fields as opposed to power, but historically Wood IS a GB hitter. That is his natural swing. Outside of a half-season on AA he's basically hit 45% GBs or higher. 

The Nats could try to change it but in my mind given his success I'd be real hesitant to try to that. To me, sure the upside is he becomes Aaron Judge but the downside is you throw him off his game and he gets worse.  Whereas if you just let him develop and if he doesn't naturally hit more homers he becomes what... Edgar Martinez? You going to complain about that? 

So right now all is lining up at the plate for a seriously fun season next year, with a line starting at .300 / .400 and the question being will it be 15 homers, 25, or 35?

What about off the plate? Hey, remember when I said Edgar Martinez a paragraph ago? The Nats didn't even bother trying him in CF, which some people said he could play, and stuck him over in LF.  Even there with Jacob Young doing some serious Gold Glove work in CF Wood looks... bad. I'll just say it. He doesn't look natural out there.  The last time we had an argument like this was about Soto. I said "no don't play him in the OF" you guys said he's fine and will get better. That didn't happen. It doesn't usually happen. You might get experience but you don't gain instinct. It's hard to get that first step. You get slower as you age. He is sure handed with a good arm so I'm not saying you have to shift him to DH tomorrow, but I think it will happen. 

This defense thing is a bit confusing because how universally praised he was but it goes to show you the major leagues is a different animal. Slightly faster pitches, swings, and hits, mean your instincts have to be at a certain level. You may not be able to see the separation in the minors that comes at the majors. That's true with every skill. He looked like a fringy CF who should excel in the corners. Now he looks like a fringy corner. Maybe time will prove me wrong but Wood probably has a body working against him every year.

The speed on the basepaths has also been underwhelming. His SB rate is not good and his baserunning stats are middle of the road. He does seem fast but it's not translating yet. If there can be AAAA hitters, I suppose there can be AAAA fielders and baserunners too, no?

So James Wood does not look like the Willie Mays / Mickey Mantle one man army savior of the franchise in this extended first year trial. Instead he looks merely to be in line to start a HoF career at the plate. Maybe that means he won't be first ballot. I hope that's ok.

Am I pumping him up too much at the plate? Maybe. Am I letting too much air out otherwise? Maybe. But this is what we've seen. And if you are going with "he's going to get even better at the plate, while improving his defense, and baserunning" understand that's a Pollyanna take. It could happen. He could also start striking out 45% of the time and drop back to AAA. But I don't think either is likely. Hoping that you guys take "Future HoFer" as a good thing rather than focus on "Not Willie Mays"

One win away

From not losing 100. 

First of the modest goals for 2024 specifically. I'd say 

• Don't lose 100 games
• Don't be worst team in league (not guaranteed yet but it would take quite the collapse) 
• Don't be worst team in NL East (also need collapse)
• Win 70 games (should also happen) 
• Win 72 games (that's more than last year. It is also their pace so it could go either way)
• Win 80 games (probably about as likely as being the worst team in league)

Everyone wants Soto back

Good!  That's smart, I think. 

But no one said what they are going to do for pitching. They are still 13th best in the NL this year in RA. That's the type of pitching that needs a BEST OFFENSE EVER to compete for division titles with good teams. 

I of course said "just buy more pitching too" but that's me and I don't expect the Nats to actually do that. What is your plan then? Bargain bin pitching? Roll with prospects? Trades?

Bring Soto back or not?

One of the questions floating around this series has to do with Juan Soto as he's coming in as a Yankee. He'll be a FA in the offseason.  Should the Nats go all in to sign him? 

The pros and cons are all obvious. 

On the pro side he's the most impressive young hitter of this generation (Trout is heading out of the middle baseball years. Shohei just turned 30 in early July. Juan will turn 30 after the 2028 season is over.) He's got possibly the best eye in baseball and can hit for average and power. He's still very young. At 25 he's likely a good long contract from any decline. He's never been a problem in the dugout. 

On the con side he'll be incredibly expensive. Likely Boras will open at something like 15 years 1 billion, because he's Boras, this deal will be on the other side of 500 million easy. If your team isn't going to dig into deep pockets this could effect remaining signings. While athletic, he doesn't run great and he doesn't field all that well. However he seems to prefer being in the OF so you can't just stick him at DH and you best have good OF D to cover for him. 

The Nats on paper seem like good candidates to try for Soto. They have a super low payroll right now, so have room for a monster contract. They could put him in OF assuming Crews is a plus CF like people think and Wood gets over his early issues and becomes a plus corner OF which people also think is possible. If anything happens they have room at 1B/DH as well. 

But the Nats haven't committed to a bat like this in a long time. Arguably it was either Jayson Werth in 2010 or Ryan Zimmerman in 2012. They haven't paid a big time bat like this in over a decade. But they have spent money. It's just been on pitching. Sherzer, Corbin, the Strasburg extensions were all top of market deals. That begs the question - is it just coincidence or is it philosophy? And the follow-up - if it's not philosophy wouldn't the fact the Nats have a boatload of young bats and a canoe full of young arms change up targets? In other words doesn't the situation warrant a top starter or two not another bat? 

That depends on how you see the future. The present says the bats need more help. But there's a sense that guys like Wood, Crews, Abrams, maybe House, etc. could become star level bats. On the mound there's a hope that Gore does that but that hope was diminished a bit by this year's simple ok performance so far. The other arms have been surprisingly decent but not #1 arms. If you buy into the bats could be great and the arms won't then arms make more sense. But if not - you fix what's broken and the line-up is broken more.

Soto back to DC is intriguing and it would make the team better. But is it the best path forward.  Of course my answer is YES!* but as the start of a spending spree signing him AND the starter(s) you need. Not my money.

*Well really my answer is "Yes it is the best path forward for the Nats but the Yankees should outbid them"

Monday Quickie - Dylan Crews Day and the New Normal

 Happy Dylan Crews Day! 

The Nats future continues to become the present as Wednesday could feature a lot of what I would suspect would be the hopeful Opening Day 2026 "Hoping to be Playoff Relevant" lineup 

C Keibert Ruiz

1B ? 

2B Luis Garcia Jr

SS CJ Abrams

3B ? (Probably Brady House)

LF James Wood

CF Dylan Crews 

RF ? 

SP  Mackenzie Gore 

DH ? 

Sure the "?"s could be filled by someone here now and definitely don't expect the 6 listed to all be starting in April of 2026 - that's just baseball, but the tipping point has been reached. The Nats will be playing more of the "future" than the "present" going forward.

And that's good because the Nats have finally played enough bad ball to be officially dropped from most WC lists. This isn't doing the Nats dirty. They have 59 wins now and have played most of the season like a high 60s win team. They'll be aiming to get over 70 wins and beat last years surprise 71, with a deserved one. They should do it but isn't guaranteed. Aiming for 70 we'll note the current WC line is at... 70 wins. 

I'll most be interested in what kind of power Crews can bring. That's what the Nats lack the most. Even Wood - who can hit the ball with great force - hasn't been able to put it over the fence enough. That should come with time but you'd rather see someone do it now than have everyone in the "it'll get better" pile. Crews probably won't show that much pop. His AAA picked up the pace from AA but wasn't all that great. Wood's was and that didn't immediately translate.

Enjoy this moment. The future is almost all here (hopefully House will get called up at the end of the AAA season and complete the 2026 squad) and everything is hope and possibilities right now.  Next year will be about the reality.

Dylan Crews is coming to the District of Columbia

I wonder if there is a fun way to shorten that. Oh well. 

Dylan Crews will be the 5th player* from the 2023 draft to debut proving that things are moving faster now than they used to.  After showing he was better than what A-ball had to offer, Crews had real trouble in AA last year, but that's not all that surprising. AA is a big jump from college ball and it was at the end of the longest season of high competitive baseball Crews had played.  He started pretty slow in 2024 as well but by July he was handling AA pitching perfectly well and got the call up to AAA. After a short adjustment, he began hitting there as well, performing very well in the last 3 series (.333 with 4 homers in 14 games. series are longer in the minors).  It's a fairly quick turnaround but perfectly reasonable. 

Crews will remain a rookie for 2025.  He'd have to have 45 active days on the roster but with the last game of the season being September 29th, that passed more than a week ago.  He could get 130 AB (not PA) but with about 30 games left that's basically playing everyday, hitting leadoff, and catching some breaks. 

He's played mostly CF and people were generally high on his fielding.  I haven't heard much different, but then again we heard good things about Wood and he's been disappointing in the field.** Still a true CF carries a bit more weight when they get high evaluations. 

2024 has been about 2025 and this is one more piece of proof. By getting Crews some major league ABs that means he'll be more prepared when he comes up next year, likely to start the year but we'll see. It's exciting and fun and exactly what Nats fans were hoping to see this year. This year has been what the Nats wanted and it's just one more thing making 2024 probably the best year for the team and the fans since 2019. 

*Skenes (awesome but the Nats couldn't have picked him if they wanted), Langford (ok but hurt), Jacob Wilson (surprisingly INCREDIBLE in the minors, just called up), Nolan Schanuel (he's been ok).  So if Crews isn't at least ok it would be a surprise.

** but not at all disappointing at the plate. Ok he could have a few more homers but the guy is hitting over .280+ with patience and moderate power as at 21/22 (he'll be 22 soon). No complaints from me. 

Nats bring back their entire coaching staff

The question is ... why?  

The manager

You know I don't think highly of Davey but he's here through 2025.  The only way that wasn't going to be the case is if this year was a complete disaster and it's been ok! Not great, not bad, ok and more things look good than bad. Sure those are things Davey didn't have much impact on (Wood's rise for example) but the point is he's set. Presumably Davey likes these guys. Since he's going to be here you might as well give him guys he wants. 

The pitching

We all jumped on the Doolittle bandwagon when the starters were hot to start the season. I'm not sure Doolittle made Trevor Williams do that weird Cy Young start. But Irvin is bette, Parker is better than we thought, Herz looks usable.  Sure these may end up as three guys who are 3/4 types but that's an improvement over three guys that fight over the 5th spot which is what we were kind of thinking they might be. Pitching recently for the Nats has been historically bad so they get a little pass but there doesn't seem to be a reason to move on. 

The hitting

And here's the issue. The Nats don't hit, haven't hit, can't hit. Guys don't look to be hitting their potential. Ruiz looked like a solid average hitter and he's slapping .230.  Abrams has star potential and he's .250 and 20. Wood should be a superstar and yes it is very early but he's nailing pitches into the ground like an injured Zimmerman. The offense was boosted by found gems like Winker and Thomas as opposed to home grown players. Even the surprises later in the year Yepez for a while, Chaparro right now, are not Nats guys. 

If there was a place screaming for a change it's the hitting coaches. 

Now of course there's a line of thinking that hitting coaches don't matter too much and that's probably true. But in terms of investment for improvement, these guys are relatively cheap and maybe you get a win or two if they mesh well with the right guy.  The main concern is young Nats hitters that have debuted recently Robles, Adams, Millas, Lipscomb, Ruiz, have underperformed and there's going to be a handful more we see soon. Even guys that haven't underperformed like Wood and Abrams aren't where you'd HOPE they'd be and Garcia, who is now where he probably should be, spent a couple years in the wilderness first.  All signs point to get someone new. 

But they didn't. So it's on them. Just like with the off-season to be, the Nats have choices to make to maybe be competitive in 2025 into 2026. Every choice they make or don't make it's fair to scrutinize.

 

Monday Quickie - Back! (me not the Nats)

Some things that have happened since the ASG and while I've been off gallivanting up and down the east coast. 

• Alex Call has been super hot. One homer and a .526 BABIP? Don't buy it.
• Luis Garcia Jr has heated up again. Let's consider 2nd base closed for 2025. 
• Juan Yepez has cooled down. Just in case you were excited about that. 
• CJ Abrams has cooles WAY down and is probably a little banged up given the rest he's had recently. Sit him as much as you need to. 

• Davey seems content in trying to break Derek Law trying to get unecessary wins in the 2nd half. 
• DJ Herz and Mitchell Parker have both had good 2nd halves though you'd be better off buying Herz a guy that misses bats. 
• Irvin and Gore have not have good 2nd halves. 
• There has been a decent amount of bad relief pitching - as expected when you trade away your good ones

How are the guys gone doing? 

• You might have heard but Victor Robles is having a minor star run in Seattle. We'll see if it holds up but it both backs up why the Nats were so reluctant to deal him AND that they didn't know how to deal WITH him. 
• "Late starter" Eddie Rosario got DFA'd byt he Braves after being even lousier for them. 
• Nick Senzel, the guy I screamed "Why are you even trying with this guy" is currently riding the pine for the worst team baseball has seen in a long time, the White Sox. 

Ok now the traded : 

• Harvey is hurt.  
• Floro had done fine but just got ROCKED by the Phillies so the numbers look bad in Arizona. 
• The Lane Train has derailed in Cleveland. They aren't platooning him which is a bad idea if you want to get max value from him.
• Jesse Winker has done ok serving as depth for the Mets but is looking for some pop.

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What day is it quickie

 I'm on vacation again.  Yes vacation, sick, vacation is not ideal for posting. 

Have the Nats gotten good? Not really. 

Have the Nats been bad? Not really 

They've basically been the team we've thought they'd be since May 10 but as I say continuously - you don't have to give those games back! Trevor Williams' Cy Youngish start to the year is enshrined in history. 

Garcia is holding up. Abrams is still going. Wood has seen his "I hit the ball really hard. Where are my hits?" luck turn around. Mackenzie Gore... well you can't have everything. 

Is this it? Maybe. Every kid is hitting like .750-.800 OPS which is like fine but not pushing to move up. So  maybe we see Crews and others later, maybe we see them next year. 

Everybody basically happy? Seems like right now that's kind of where you should be. Satisfied, waiting to get happy or angry depending on what happens in the off-season. 

Got sick!

Of Patrick Corbin! Hey yo! 

No not really. Was sick before that. But after vacation so I'll take it.  Let's go over the deadline deals! 

Hunter Harvey for Cayden Wallace (and a competitive balance pick) : 

You guys all know I'm in the tank for Harvey. Swing and miss stuff, doesn't give up homers, that's already a pretty good relief arm and previous years suggest control is possible which would make him great. But the Nats leaned hard on that arm and with a year of control he was a prime target for other teams. And as noted earlier the Nats actually have some relief arms in the minors worth trying out. So he's gone. 

Cayden Wallace is decent return for Harvey. FWIW the Royals farm was noted as "notably thin on top-tier talent" He's not likely to be a star. But he's 22/23 (August 7th) and handling AA fairly well. His defense is well thought of. He could be a decent doubles power ok average type player but more likely he's a bench guy. That's also what you'd probably expect from a competitive balance pick. The more of these you get the better. A several year decent bench guy for Harvey would be a reasonable return and maybe you get lucky. 

Jesse Winker for Tyler Stuart : 

Winker proved he was good when healthy and was healthy with the Nats. He might head into FA healthy and that would (1) be very good for him, and (2) make it really unlikely for him to return to the Nats. He's a win now bat. If you sign him it's with the hope he stays healthy in 2025 first and foremost. The Nats are a win later team, even if later is just 2026. 

Tyler Stuart isn't that much of a prospect. He slots in where Jake Bennett, Jackson Rutledge, etc. fall. The good news is that what he does well (no walks, no homers) is what the Nats like. The bad news is he's pretty hittable guy at AA and he's going to turn 25 right after the season. There's also a question of arm durability as he was a reliever in college. It's more org depth than the lottery ticket you hope for. 

Lane Thomas for Alex Clemmey, Rafeal Ramirez Jr and Jose Tena : 

The Nats grabbed Lane for Jon Lester in what turned out to be a steal. In retrospect, it's clear that the Cardinals, who had a bulk of AAAA type OFs, really didn't know how to evaluate them and in the last couple of years have dealt away several who did fine and kept others that did not. Lane did fine! The first couple months and 2022 were fun because it was a surprise that he was ok as a full-time player. But that also hid the fact he was a bad fielder. He's not the worst option for a 3rd OF for a decent team right now but age curves suggest he soon will be a better 4th OF and its hard to see him as part of the Nats future a few years down the road. Made real sense to deal him.

Jose Tena is an interesting player but probably not good. Swings hard. When he doesn't miss the ball he hits it hard, but mostly at the ground. So there are two things to fix here. At his age maybe you can but it just feels real likely he's going to keep striking out like 40% of the time and that untenable. But as a third throw in, sure! 

Rafeal Ramirez Jr is the bad lottery ticket. Super young. Intriguing power. Pretty good eye. Also sort of slow already? That's not a good sign. Misses a ton of pitches in A ball.  A total project. Not really the lottery ticket you want. But as a second throw in, sure!

Alex Clemmey though is the interesting piece. Big swing and miss stuff. Hard to hit. Wild. Just turned 19. This is the lottery ticket you want. He's a "#1 #2 starter" scratch off.  Sure you probably lose but in these types of trades this is what you want to get back. 

Dylan Floro for Andres Chaparo : 

Dylan Floro did well for the Nats and is exactly the type of pick-up and trade guy you want to get. Shame they didn't make him a closer to inflate that value a bit. With no bad peripherals since 2017, he's the type of guy the Nats will need next year but as an upcoming FA if the Nats want him they can try to sign him. 

Andres Chaparo is just a guy. He's hitting pretty well in the hit heavy PCL so should get a shot at some point but is a crappy fielder so he'd have to do more than just hit ok in the majors. Org depth mostly. 

I'd say not a bad haul for what they dealt. Yes the chance of a star really only falls on Alex Clemmey, but that chance plus likely a decent bench player is probably fair for a what was going out.  The Nats weren't going to get a sure fire major leaguer out of it.

Get some hits!

The Nats were no-hit yesterday completing the Padres sweep in the "never know what Nats team is going to show up" season.  They aren't good but are we going to get .500ish Nats or terrible Nats? Seriously though - it's time to stop thinking about the Nats as any sort of competitor if you are. Not this year. It's over. 

Something worrying is the Nats hitting or lack thereof.  5 shutouts in the past 30 days. They've been consistently bad and we have to see how they address it.  

What are the problems? 

Catcher - a tough one because Ruiz is under contract for a while and the alternatives aren't much better. 

First base - don't have one unless Yepez is real deal but don't believe that anymore than Wood can't hack it here. 

Outfield - can probably make do with Thomas for a couple more years but he's more likely to be a liability than a help with his average bat and below average fielding aging. 

DH - don't have one

What are the not problems?

Second base - Garcia look to be a reliable average bat if not more

Shortstop - Abrams could be a star. Probably shouldn't be at short but don't worry about that now unless you know where to put him

What are the expected kids?

Third base - House

Outfield - Wood and Crews.

A playoff run is not made from 3 question marks, as good as they might be there's a question both of how good and how fast, and two above average bats.  There are ways this can go better of course. ROY candidates and Superstar Abrams is an optimist's guess. But really they need bats. Arms? Yeah probably too but you can hold onto the first half of 2024 hope that 3 are set at least for right now. Get me bats. 

Monday Quickie - of course

Nothing teams like to do better than have a mini-run just when they sell. Doesn't mean that much for the Nats (another sweep and we'll talk) but they really did a number to the Reds.  Not sure who hates the Reds outside of someone harboring 1970s grudges but if you are - good weekend for you. 

Now it's three straight above .500 teams Padres, Cardinals, and D-backs. So 7-2? three more sweeps? 

The big thing from the weekend for me was the starting pitching both Gore getting wild enough to get pulled after 2 innings and Jake Irvin looking much better after a long rest. We'll be watching the next starts to see how this carries forward. 

Anyway I'm on vacation so we'll see how often I post. Yes yes I know. "How often do you post anyway?" Hey man! Not cool! 

Let's all agree that if Wood hits a homer I will post the next day. Make me work James. 

Into the dog days we go...

The Nats needed that break. Now they come back to face a bunch of middling teams in a row. How will it go? Who knows. The only good team they faced in the past 3 weeks was Milwaukee and that was the only team they won a series from. 

The next 10 days will be about trades. Does Finnegan go? What about Derek Law and Dylan Floro?  All are 32+ with good stats. Finnegan and Law have another year of control. What does that bring back? Who replaces them? 

Also on the block would be Jesse Winker a FA to be that proved that he is good if he can stay healthy. Not a bad bet for a team looking for only two-three months of games. Does Lane Thomas also go? On one hand he's younger with a year of control and has proven to be a consistently (slightly) above average bat. On the other he is sneaky bad defensively dampening his overall production. If they both go does that mean we see Dylan Crews? If you wait a month you don't start that clock. 

That's the set-up.  Then August and September becomes only about the kids and how they look. 

Kids that need to look better include Keibert Ruiz and Trey Lipscomb (if he doesn't want to get passed). Notice I DIDN'T say James Wood.  First time up - whatever he does outside of strike out 50% of the time and bat .050 is fine.  Ok ok he's actually almost there in Ks. He's struck out 18 of his last 43 PAs. But he makes enough hard contact to keep the average above the Mendoza line and keep the team from feeling the need to send him back down. 

Kids that need to hold on to around average include Luis Garcia, Jake Irvin, and Mitchell Parker. Guys who have settled into a nice above average usable spot that you want to see stay about there to keep new holes from forming. Garcia entered the ASB hot. Irvin and Parker not so much. And we can't just dismiss August and September if it goes poorly.  It's a third of the season! So if they do crater re-evaluation will be needed about their position. So don't! Just play about average!

Kids that need to keep pushing include Abrams and Gore. Both are playing like they could be stars for years. The Nats need stars. But the season has been up and down a bit for both which introduces some questions about how good they could be. The good news though is it's in both directions. As multi-year veterans now seeing them get a little better is what we want, but keep being this good is probably ok. Just don't have a late season swoon. 

Two weeks from ALL KIDS ALL THE TIME (and grumbling about Corbin every 5th day).

All-Star Thoughts

I've probably said this before but the All-Star Game is evergreen so why not say it again

• I think every team should have a rep. As a kid I was interested in MY guy. Yes I wanted to see stars but I saw plenty of them. They're all over the All-Star Game! Sorry your second, third or fourth best guy didn't make it. As an adult I respect that kid and kid's wishes.
• I think the All-Star Game shouldn't mean anything more than it does. The "this time it counts" era was stupid. 
• I think the leagues should go back to not playing each other which would heighten the ASG but that ship has sailed and can no longer be seen from shore (rumor has it it hit an iceberg and sunk) so I accept the ASG isn't going to mean as much.  Chase those regular season dollars though and general loss of media attention! 
• I think all the starters - even pitchers - should play the first 3 innings. Ok if a pitcher is laboring to get him out sooner - you do have a stacked pen. But none of this 3Ks first inning pull the pitcher nonsense.
• I think the manager should try to get one guy from every team an appearance. You should try to get every sub an AB and every starter coming in should go 2 IP. That will help with the next thing.
• I think the HR Derby extra inning thing is stupid and was completely ok ending the game in a tie if needed. Though it should be like a 13 inning limit or something letting you put guys back in after the 9th.  It's an exhibition, let's get a winner but we don't have to be too serious about it. The pitchers?  Look if you can't figure out how to have two starters left after 9 to just throw 2 innings a piece I don't know how you got to be a manager in the first place.
•  I still think the Future's Game alone on Sunday night makes ALL THE SENSE IN THE WORLD and random Saturday - what are you paying attention to the actual games on? - is the dumbest thing baseball does and it does a lot of dumb things. 
• I 100% think they should wear their own team uniforms for the game. This was iconic. The amount of money they squeeze from ASG merch has to be tiny, but they'd sell balls and strike calls to a sponsor for a nickel if they could. 
• I think it has to start at the time it does. Sorry East Coasters that get tired early, but the pitch clock makes it move along much better.  I suppose you could put it on Sunday and start it earlier. But on Tuesday? Nah.

Monday Quickie - State of the Nats

All-Star Break. 

Record 44-53. (73/74 win pace) 

General Feeling : Not great currently, but taking a step back pretty good.  

The Nats currently are on a pretty horrendous stretch. After nearly hitting .500 getting at 35-36 the Nats have gone 9-17. The call-up of James Wood created a hopeful mood that perhaps the Nats were going to make a play for something bigger this year but they have all but slipped from any sort of Wild Card contention and the sell-off has begun. Both Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker have looked shaky recently as has the overworked bullpen. With Corbin being Corbin and the 5th starter being likely a rotation of AAAA hopefuls at best, it's unlikely the Nats can keep up the pitching that buoyed them for half a season.  Meanwhile the hitting looks no better today than at any other point. Wood did not immediately become a superstar and Abrams and Winker are good but not good enough to carry a lineup (few duos would be) 

Taking a step back though, it would take a continuation of this stretch through the entire remainder of the year to approach a disappointing year (they'd win like 66 games).  One good stretch will given them a solid win total. CJ Abrams and Mackenzie Gore both continued to improve looking like cornerstone players of the next potential Nats contender. James Wood dominated the minor leagues looking more and more like a safe bet to be a good, if not great, major league player and another tentpole. Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker, while tiring now, were good for long enough to suggest one, if not both, will be rotation pieces going forward if not more. Yes Kiebert Ruiz and Josiah Gray continued to have issues and the minors beyond Wood hasn't produced another player hitting their ceilings but if you are looking for 100% of your things to go right, you are looking for something you will never find. The Nats look like a team that is ready to take another step forward. 

Will they? Well that's likely for the off-season. From here on out the only thing that could derail the general mile-high view good feeling would be injury issues. 

Speaking of good feelings for the future, the Nats traded arguably their most talented reliever, in Hunter Harvey, and got back a decent haul.  No Cayden Wallace isn't special which framing might suggest. My personal opinion is that if you hear someone called "Team's Xth best prospect" instead of "MLB's Xth best prospect" it probably means they aren't actually a real prospect. Cayden is borderline in that respect. Injured 22/23 year old (he'll be 23 in less than a month) who had real issue generating power this year in AA. But being in AA at this age is good and he's worth a look at.  Plus the Nats get a supplemental first round pick (39th). Both the player and pick probably fall into "multi-year bench player" expectations which doesn't sound like much but would be a good return for a reliever like Harvey who is as much talent as production. 

Rizzo has his flaws but he's always been a good trader, deals he makes are rarely flat out bad. So expect at least fair returns for the relievers. But do expect the relievers to go.

Slide slide slippedy slide

 Well a Wild Card was always a bit of a stretch. Especially when near .500 management was giving out all the "don't be mad when we trade guys" signals. 

Ok 2025.  Wood is here. Who's next up? 

Dylan Crews - Promoted to AAA after handling AA.  He wasn't forcing the issue as much as it was clear he could handle AA. He was consistently a good bat over almost any stretch you looked at. AAA has looked about the same - maybe a touch worse in all aspects which wouldn't be surprising this early. Not necessarily slated to make it up this year based on this. Will have to see.

Brady House - Recently promoted to AAA because... well because I think they want all these guys to come up at the same time or as close as possible. House wasn't doing much in AA and infact it seemed like the league had figured him out to an extent. He could surprise but if AAA follows AA like it did for Crews House is even less likely to need to see the majors this year. 

Cade Cavalli - setback after setback. thrown two games since coming back from his big injury and both of those starts were followed by extended time off. I don't see why you'd press this, but if he is healthy sure you'll see him.  He's been up before. 

Cole Henry - if you have news on him let me know.  Hasn't been seen since a decent rehab start a few days before June ended. I'm guessing that's a no for 2024 in the majors. 

Yohandy Morales - slow start in AA and injury. Hasn't played since May. No.  

Daylen Lile - earned a promotion to AA where he is doing ok, lots of concact but really struggling to generate any power. 

Robert Hassell - hasn't played since mid-June and was having the same power issues as last year before that

Andry Lara - up and down in AA but mostly up and probably the best healthy arm they have right now. The problem is he's young enough he hasn't built up the innings. He's about 3 starts from matching his career highs. I can't see him called up to throw an extra 30+. I wouldn't want that.

This isn't what I expected. Who could we see :

Darren Baker - He puts the ball in play and is fast so can have a decent average. Maybe. I'd feel better if he already wasn't 25.  

Orlando Ribalta - Ok not much of a "prospect" but a live arm reliever. Nats at the major league level seem adept at getting control out of these guys and if he gets it he could be really good. Although yes 26. 

Zach Brzykcy - On 40 man so that's a big help. Looked real good in Wilmington but hasn't pitched in over a week. But if he's ok I'd assume you'll see him. 

Marquis Grissom - in AA now but fits the exact build of the Nats pitching staff. Control, no homers, gets the job done. Would expect a stop in AAA but then the majors this year

What this says is 

1) Expect the relievers to get traded because if the Nats have anyone worth seeing in the majors it's other relief arms. Might as well get them some practice now. 

2) Really watch Crews, House, and the rest of the high minors guys. They need to do better over the next 6 weeks to make a call-up really make sense, although they could get it just for the experience. 

3) in general the "next wave" that will help carry the team to a WC challenge in 2025 isn't forming. That's some injury, some performance, some timing. Right now it's Wood and then... we'll see.  Lots of time left in the year though. Some strong finishes would turn this narrative around.

I am a downer

It's true. But the Nats are in a much better place then we thought they might be to start the year so that's good and it's the focus of this year. Irvin looks set. Garcia has reset. Gore is good. Wood is up. Abrams is having a potential star turn. That's a nice core. 

But the past 3 weeks have been rough. For those looking for some surprise success in 2024 the Nats are on a 7-13 slide (4-10 more recently).  It's their second extended slide of the year- they went 8-17 over almost a month May into June.  The reason they aren't reeling is between these two they had an 8-1 run, their best stretch of baseball this year. They are still technically in the playoff hunt but in a bad spot 5.5 out with one team to beat and 5 others to jump over. The Mets series could really finish that off. 

What happened? The batting has crept a little better. It's still not good but it's better. The starting pitching has been constantly decent. The culprit has been a faltering pen. Some ERAS in the last two weeks

Hunter Harvey - 12.46

Robert Garcia - 7.71

Tanner Rainey - 7.20

Dylan Floro - 6.00

Derek Law - 4.76

The reason is likely overuse. Floro is tied for 3rd in appearances, Law t6th, Harvey t19th, Garcia t33*.  This doesn't sound that bad but understand if you list the Top 30 relief pitchers in appearances you would basically expect each team to have 1. It'll differ based on SP innings but the Nats starters have been fairly strong and they are Top 10 in innings pitched. Yet the Nats have four arms in the Top ~30. This is managing to "win one everyday" with a team that should be "set up for 2025".

This is rough news for someone looking for trades to happen to boost the Nats quantity in the minors hoping to find another Thomas or Herz in the mess brought back. These guys are bringing back less than they would have 3 weeks ago. 

Time to choose for the Nats. Because if you really want to set up 2025 as best as possible with trades, that means resting these guys, taking some Ls, and getting them to look good again before the trade deadline. If you want to set up 2025 best as possible with arms in house, that means resting these guys, taking some Ls and making sure they are healthy at years end. Only if you want to press for 2024 do you keep throwing them out there 2-3-4? times over the next week.

*I used to mention the Nats were also behind in games played but they have caught up and are about average. So these numbers are fair.

Monday Quickie - take the bad with the good

James Wood is up and has been basically what you could expect he'd be right now. He's hitting (.320 average) he's walking (they are throwing him junk out of the zone to see how much he'll chase - not much is the answer) he's striking out more than he did in AAA (but not much more which is very good) and he's not hitting with much power (of course for this punchless team that marks him as like 5th best on the team and also he's hitting it hard... just not up).  It's a near perfect debut that marks him as a good major leaguer already.  We'll have to see how both the league and he handles the second time around games and the crush of a full season but all signs point positively. 

Jake Irvin DIDN'T make the All-Star team and that's probably fair. He's been good but not overwhelmingly so in a morass of about 15 guys that could have made it given different circumstances. But importantly he remains GOOD. A better than mid-rotation starter that reminds long term fans of Tanner Roark coming in and surprisingly becoming a solid pitcher for a few years. This is with the league having a full season of starts now to have a book on him. Exactly the kind of good cheap pitching stock you want to have. 

But along with the good there has been some bad and I haven't seen the balance in thinking about it.  When Nick Senzel was hitting early on (he had 5 homers in his first 10 games) and had a reasonable average through the first week in May, Nats fans talked of him as another secret get. Look at Rizzo go!  But he's been terrible for two months hitting to a .589 OPS* and got DFA'd. Where was the Rizzo made a mistake talk? Lost. Rizzo is doing the same thing he's done the past couple years, dragging in these bodies and hoping for something to happen. Candelario and Winker worked out. Far more didn't.  There isn't skill here. Just quantity. 

When DJ Herz threw a couple high K no walks games articles came out about how the Nats young pitching was amazing and look at all these arms. Not mentioned was how Herz stunk in pretty much every other start. Now he's been sent down. There won't be talk, except here, about how the Nats SP is not robust but still pretty thin going into next year. Parker looks more like a 5 every time he goes out there** able to keep the ball in the zone but unable to make it hard for guys to put it over the fence.

If this is really about 2025 keep your head on straight. I've been seeing people riding the highs and not regarding the lows. That can be dangerous, especially for a team that's 43-47 and only nominally in the playoff hunt. What you want is to ID the issues and pound on the team to address them in the off-season. Don't get lost in the idea that Rizzo can find another Winker (instead of the Senzel, Gallo, Rosario, looking like Ramirez) or that Herz will be another Irvin (instead of Adon or Rutledge or Tetreault)

2025 people! Eyes on the prize!

*means he's not walking, hitting for power or hitting for average. 

**but if he can repeat this as a 5 that's fine. I'll take that. But that does leave two spots empty. A true ace would be nice or else you need a couple of other real solid arms because that's what the Nats have gotten pretty much this year from Williams, Parker's start, some random other games by Herz and Corbin.